Sunday Lightning 6.6.2010

• The lunacy about the draft:

As much as MLB tries to turn the draft into an NFL/NHL/NBA-style event and are ably assisted by "draftniks" who think that watching a hitter bash with an aluminum bat; or a pitcher overpower the mostly inept competition with a devastating fastball, they're missing an important point----the MLB Draft is the ultimate crapshoot.

Teams are roasted and lauded for their success and failures in mining talent and there are people in baseball who have an eye for a player and can spot him while others misjudge his abilities. I go through this every year and relate stories about players that were missed and hit based more on circumstances and luck than any innate judgmental ability, but it's getting worse.

Now, we're going to see the same silly show of Bud Selig wandering out from behind the curtain at MLB studios like the Crypt Keeper introducing another horror tale (and it might just be another horror tale if draft history is any indication). Into the deathly quiet studio he'll amble----card in hand; personality non-existent, glasses thick; suit ill-fitting; and hair floppy----to make the announcement of the drafting of a player no one knows and may never ever hear of again.

Those immersed in the draft don't want to hear this simple fact about baseball----it's in no way close to any of the other big time sports in having a general idea of whether a player is going to make it to the big leagues or not. You can bet that the names announced in the first round are going to be in the professional ranks for a significant amount of time and most will either make or get close to the big leagues for reasons other than "ability that needs to be unlocked".

No. It's not the latent talent that keeps them employed.

They'll hang around because teams want to save face and appear that they know what they're doing; because they've invested a ton of money in these amateurs and have to justify it be having them "succeed".

Another little known bit of reality----you can make a viable case (that I don't agree with) to almost ignore the draft and focus on spending money to buy big league players from whom you know what performance you're going to get. Putting aside the obvious allure of a player like Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper, with all the money tossed at an amateur, wouldn't it be better to fling the money at a guaranteed performer like Albert Pujols?

Some teams draft only to have players to trade for veterans. There's a case for doing that. Look at the legion of hyped prospects who've been failures; the mistakes that have been made or nearly made; that the amateur players are just names to the majority of the baseball-watching public (and even to many people who are in the position to make the decision in baseball) and you see that this focus on the draft is publicity seeking sham.

You show me a team that has success finding players via amateur free agency and late in the draft and I'll agree that they have a scouting eye worth noting; aside from that, I don't want to hear about the players that were drafted ahead of Derek Jeter----NY Times article----with the unsaid implication of "how could you even think of taking these players ahead of Jeter?!?". I'll tell you how: because no one knows what an amateur player is going to be; how he'll mature mentally and physically; if he'll make it.

I've given the Joe Mauer/Mark Prior argument before; the "Albert Pujols was drafted in the 13th round" argument; the justification of the Mariners taking Brandon Morrow over Tim Lincecum; but here's another one from memory of a small snippet in Sports Illustrated years ago (I couldn't find it to quote it verbatim, but my recall is pretty good): In 1987, teams were split on who should be the first pick in the draft. Ken Griffey Jr, was the clear cut choice, but many teams loved Mark Merchant.

The Mariners took Griffey, of course; and the Pirates took Merchant. Mark Merchant washed out with the Pirates and wound up in the Mariners organization. He bounced around the minors for 12 years, made it as high as Triple A until his career ended at age 29 in 1998 in an Independent League. So, what would've happened had the Mariners taken Merchant? Would they be savaged from now until infinity for a mistake? Or would they be allowed to shrug and say, "we took the player we wanted and it didn't work out"?

You tell me.

You tell me as you sit with breathless anticipation watching a bunch of 17-22-year-olds selected, becoming wealthy and bearing names you don't know and probably won't ever hear again aside from retrospectively ludicrous criticism launched by circling vultures who can't formulate an opinion on their own and wouldn't have the courage nor the capacity to jump into the ring themselves.

Don't waste my time with the draft. Let me see the player after he's been a pro for awhile. Now, it's like the Lord of the Rings trilogy----torture without foreseeable end.

• What to do with Hanley:

It didn't generate as much of a cataclysmic explosion as his recent bout with non-hustle in which he very nearly got his head knocked off by Andre Dawson, but Hanley Ramirez of the Marlins again failed to run out a ground ball and might have cost his club a game.

On Friday with the tying and go-ahead runs on second and third base and two outs in the ninth inning, Ramirez hit a grounder down the line which David Wright grabbed and threw on one hop to Ike Davis to get Ramirez and end the game. When the replay of Ramirez was shown, he hesitated before running. On some level, it was understandable that he thought it was foul, but with his speed, had he busted out of the box the play would at least have been close and the game potentially tied. Instead, the Mets won.

Nothing much was said about it after the fact aside from a few comments from analysts; but it's getting to the point where the Marlins have to wonder if Hanley Ramirez has gotten too big for their clubhouse and might listen if teams started (as they undoubtedly have) calling about trading for him.

There's no doubt that Ramirez is one of the brightest talents in the game; that he has Triple Crown ability; but he's showing a disinterest in playing the game correctly that is disconcerting. Then you get to the burgeoning disconnect in the organization between Ramirez and everyone aside from owner Jeffrey Loria; plus the money he's due to start making next year and it's a question whether the Marlins might cut and run with Ramirez and deal him for a massive package of prospects.

Ramirez is slumping this year (8 homers; 29 RBI; .286 BA; .365 OBP); and the money he's due to make beginning next year might still be a bit much for the Marlins to swallow even with some of their organizational decisions to constrain payroll relaxed by mandate of MLB and that they have a new ballpark on the way.

Ramirez's contract calls for him to receive $11 million in 2011; $15 million in 2012; $15.5 million in 2013; and $16 million in 2014. He does not have a no-trade clause.

The Red Sox have long lusted after Ramirez and have the prospects to get it done; presumably, they have the clubhouse people to keep him in line to a certain degree and make sure he hustles; he'd absolutely hit. The Angels also have the management/leader-types to prevent Ramirez from getting lackadaisical and the need for a bat.

I have no doubt that after the ball-kicking incident, teams called and were rebuffed; but eventually, Ramirez may wear out his welcome with everyone including his friend the owner; then a blockbuster might happen without warning and Ramirez could be moved by the ruthless Marlins----all for the greater good.

I don't expect it, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility either.

• Viewer Mail 6.6.2010:

Matt writes RE Armando Galarraga, Bud Selig and the perfect game:

Paul, great job putting the quantum leap baseball scenario in perspective. Though I for one would welcome the idea of reversing the Denkinger call from 85' and ordering those men out of retirement to do the rest of the series over again. Now that's entertainment!

It's be pretty funny to start trying to replay all the "wrongs that need to be righted" in baseball history. On the surface, you can see a genuine consideration of overturning the call and letting the perfect game stand, but then you have the basis for all sorts of appeals, disasters and financial arguments going forward. They didn't do it because they couldn't do it and once reality set in, the play was allowed to stand.

Jeff (Street Boss) at Red State Blue State writes RE Bud Selig:

Totally agree on the Selig tip. This is why this family is tops. We see the big picture.

We see the big picture and destroy our enemies in totality with brutal efficiency.

Gabriel (Capo) writes RE the Blue Jays:

I agree with your take on the Jays, but I like a lot what I have seen. Gregg was solid in April, but hideous since three weeks ago. They blew up two games against the Rays in the ninth, and at least three of those defeats against the Red Sucks happened because the bullpen exploded. They might not be contenders, but they will be spoilers.

Nothing can go wrong when you accumulate the amount of pitching that the Blue Jays and new GM Alex Anthopoulos has. The one thing they do have to look forward to is that once Jose Bautista and Alex Gonzalez stop hitting homers at this absurd frequency, Adam Lind, Lyle Overbay and Aaron Hill will start hitting. Lind and Hill may not be as great as they were last year, but they're not this terrible. The future is brighter than anyone thought and no deep reconstructive effort is needed to get this team back to respectability.

On another note, Edwin Encarnacion continues to show why he's the player managers most want to strangle.

Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes RE the Blue Jays and Michael Kay vs Phil Mushnick:

The Jays looked awfully good to me last night in beating the Yanks. Cecil stymied them and Bautista destroyed them. I don't expect them to be there in the end, but third place in the tough AL East is pretty damn good. As for the Kay thing, I don't like to be scolded either.

When a team like the Blue Jays is getting unexpected performance from what amounts to journeymen bats, it's reasonable to expect them to fall back, but they're playing tough for now and that young pitching is doing well.

I can't picture you enjoying a good scolding either, Jane. No adult wants to be spoken to or about in such a way. Kay was right for flipping out about that.

The Brooklyn Trolley Blogger writes RE Michael Kay and Phil Mushnick:

I listen to ESPN all the time and very little of the FAN anymore. As a matter of fact I was just in studio on Bill Daughtry's show a couple of Fridays ago. I have a big problem with these guys shooting off their mouths and never having to be accountable for it; or much less revisiting things they've said. Whatever. Sports Radio is a good listen none the less and calling in is fun. ESPN treats me with a lot of respect. Kay was right when he said his brain was more fertile than having to resort to stealing. He was also right about saying how much of a leach a guy like Mushnick is feeding off other people's careers. But Mush was right when he said all ESPN does is tell each other how great each other is.
It was a good listen. I too wish I wasn't defending Kay, but he was right. He took the low road, but he was right.

I rarely listen to the FAN and don't listen to ESPN at all. I used to listen to Todd Wright overnights when he was on and really liked his show. Mike and Mike in the Morning were okay as well. Mike Francesa is unlistenable as a solo----almost completely out of control with everything coming down to the sum of his self-perpetuated image as "brilliant" and "the best" sports commentator out there.

It's agenda-driven, commercialized and almost totally useless. My only issue with Kay, as I said yesterday, was the "punch you in the face" comment. It was needless and silly. Make threats personally if you're going to make them; not in the middle of a rant. It diminished his content and clouded the fact that he happens to be right.

• Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide:

My book is still available on Amazon, I-Universe and Barnes and Noble.com. It's available for download as an E-book here. You can also now get it for less that five bucks on BN via download here.

Michael Kay's Meltdown

• It was the wording, not the content:

Michael Kay went off on a tangent yesterday after Phil Mushnick of the New York Post said the following in his column:

Now, a scold. When Kay lifts a chunk from a newspaper column, repeats it, almost word for word, on his radio show as if it's his original thought -- if he doesn't credit the author or at least the publication in which it appeared -- that's dishonest, a form of theft.

Kay responded in a long rant (which I didn't hear) transcribed on Newsday.com here and the relevant clip follows:

“First things first: Who the hell are you to scold me? My mother and father scolded me and they’re dead. You’re not, OK? Don’t ever scold me. You don’t have that right to be scolding me, nor do you have that gravitas. You’re nothing, OK? And what you wrote is untrue. Because of all the people that you talk to, even people at this station, I’m obsessed with giving credit. Some of my best friends in the world are newspaper writers and I always give credit.

“If I inadvertently or unknowingly gave the same kind of thought that was in a newspaper column without crediting it, well then I apologize for that. But I want you to tell me what I did and when I did it. Because the way you write it it’s like it’s a constant thing, and that’s fraudulent on your part. Fraudulent. That is not true. And I’ve got stuff on you. You want to question ethics? I’ll bring it out, too. I’ve got plenty of things that would question your ethics and your morals and the way you do your job. And I’m going to leave it open-ended, too. How does that feel?

“Don’t scold me. I’m not your son. How dare you scold me? You ever scolded me to my face I’d punch you in the face. Scold me in print? No. That’s not the way it works. I’m not going to let you get away with it. I know what I just did because I know how thin-skinned people like you are. Now you’re going to come back every single column and you’re going to rip me for something I say. Good. I like where I am."

Mushnick took part in a long and endlessly entertaining interview on BobsBlitz.com that can be listened to here.

The majority of the time, I completely agree with Mushnick's take on the likes of Michael Kay, Mike Francesa, et al. There are so few people who are willing to take Francesa to task for his pomposity, condescension and self-serving flexibility with accuracy, and the neverending agenda under which he operates. Francesa can't stand people who speak the truth to his hypocrisy and self-indulgent power trip and that, more than any other reason is why he can't abide Mushnick.

As for Kay, I don't think anyone who's ever read me for two minutes would think I'm a fan of his. A Yankee apologist; self-proclaimed baseball expert who in actuality knows very little about the game; Kay is a grate broadcaster----he grates on everyone.

That said, I have to defend him on this rant and it's not because he's "right" about his obsession with crediting people for quotes from newspapers and the like----I have no idea one way or the other; but if anything can be said about Michael Kay, it's that he can take a joke. Many times, his humor is of the self-deprecating variety; he gets it from all sides and takes it without much public complaint; and if you want to attack him, he doesn't seem to care.

As an ambivalent and entertained observer to this whole morass, I have to believe that it was Mushnick's word choice that set Kay off more than any of the content in the piece. "Scold"? I can tell you now that if someone said to me that they were "scolding" me, I'd have exploded just as Kay did. You don't "scold" a grown man as if you're a despot meting out discipline. It was beyond condescending----it was offensive; as if Mushnick was saying, "you're naughty" and whacking him on the knuckles with a ruler. Had he simply stated that he sees Kay as using other people's work without credit, fine; but "scold"? Kay was right.

Then we get to the Kay threat that he'd punch Mushnick in the face if he used the word to his face. That may or may not be true and if the reading of the word set Kay off to that degree, I tend to believe he might actually have flipped to the point of violence. We all have hot buttons to push that touch us intrinsically and force us to lose all control of rationality and the word "scold" fills the bill. The threatening bit diminishes Kay's point; if he was going to threaten Mushnick, he should've called the paper and done it personally rather than as a showy part of the rant.

Apart for that, I have----gulp----defend Michael Kay. I'd have gone berserk as well. You don't scold a grown man.

• What to make of the Blue Jays:

The Blue Jays are a weird team.

They've gotten off to a surprisingly good start and even though I didn't have them losing 100 games as many others did----too much starting pitching----I don't think anyone could have foreseen such a solid start (32-24) and loitering around contention.

Hitting with amazing power (94 homers) from unexpected sources (Jose Bautista has 18 and is leading the league), they're third in the league in runs scored, but 12th in on base percentage. Vernon Wells got off to a blazing start in the power department and has been solid; and Alex Gonzalez has 11 homers of his own. They've managed this start with little-to-no production from Adam Lind; Aaron Hill and Lyle Overbay.

Shaun Marcum's All Star-caliber comeback has spearheaded the starting pitching; Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil have been good; the rest of the rotation is a work-in-progress. The bullpen has a notoriously shaky closer in Kevin Gregg and has been up-and-down.

It's a bizarre combination in which to accumulate a 32-24 record....and it's not going to continue.

This team is not for real and there's no way they can maintain the pace of power; nor are they going to be able to continue to bluff their way through the league. Having beaten up on the Orioles; the Indians; the Royals and Rangers when they were struggling, they're 1-5 vs the Red Sox and last night was their first game against the Yankees.

Talent-wise and realistically, the Blue Jays have played far over their heads. Because of the deep well of pitching they have in the organization, they have a solid future and aren't going to be as bad as predicted (by myself included); but they're not contenders and reality is going to set in sooner rather than later.

• Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide:

My book is still available on Amazon, I-Universe and Barnes and Noble.com. It's available for download as an E-book here. You can also now get it for less that five bucks on BN via download here.

There's No Goin' Back

• Every wrong can't be righted----nor should it be:

This isn't Quantum Leap, a do-gooder hopping and inhabiting the bodies of one person after another, righting what once went wrong and hoping the next leap would be the leap....home.

And Bud Selig isn't Scott Bakula.

Technically, it was within Bud Selig's all-encompassing power to overturn the blown call by Jim Joyce that ruined Armando Galarraga's perfect game and rectify the mistake.

He could've done it. The short-term celebration that would've been forgotten relatively quickly except for another quirky baseball story that people will tell over and over again. The long-term consequences would've---not could've, would've----been disastrous.

Consider the following.

Let's say hypothetically the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are all battling for the Wild Card/AL East title on the last weekend of the season----well within the realm of possibility. The Yankees and Red Sox are playing one another in Boston on the final weekend of the season and the playoff circumstances are going to be dictated by the result of Red Sox-Yankees.

The Rays have a 91-70 record; the Yankees are at 92-69; the Red Sox 91-70 as well. Now, let's say the Rays win their game over the Royals before the Yankees-Red Sox game is over. They're going to the playoffs----they think----with a record of 92-70.

The Yankees-Red Sox game ends with the tying run on third base as a dribbling ground ball down the third base line is barehanded by Alex Rodriguez and Jacoby Ellsbury is called out at first base on a bang-bang play. The Yankees win the game and the division. They're set to play the Twins in the first round, whom they always beat. The Rays have to play the Angels, and the Red Sox lose and are out of the playoffs despite a vociferous argument that Ellsbury was safe and the tying run should have scored...and the replay confirms this.

The precedent set by something so comparatively insignificant to the team/season concept as the Armando Galarraga overturned and awarded perfect game would dictate that something so important as a playoff spot also be reviewed and overturned as well.

And it is.

The commissioner's office has no choice----given the decision to award Galarraga a perfect game----but to give the Red Sox the tying run and order the game to resume from the disputed play. Let's say the Red Sox win the game.

Then what?

The Yankees had won the division, but the call being overturned cost them the game and has forced them to have to fight their way into the playoffs They suddenly haven't won the division. Suddenly, they're tied with the Rays and Red Sox and coins are flipped and chaos ensues to determine which teams have to play in a series of one-game playoffs for the opportunity to go to the playoffs as a division winner, a Wild Card winner and to go home.

The Yankees now have to play one or two one-game playoffs; and might have to play the Angels instead of the Twins. The Rays are in a similar situation and the Red Sox are granted an opportunity they wouldn't have had otherwise.

The Rays and Yankees are screaming blue murder; the Red Sox are thrilled; the fans from every fan base are freaking out from the blogs to the radio talk shows to Twitter; the calls to the commissioner's office are overwhelming the phone lines; the gamblers are threatening death to everyone involved----it goes on and on.

There are a million different scenarios that would be effective in describing why Selig couldn't alter the blown call in Galarraga's imperfect perfect game. He didn't change it because he couldn't change it and he was right not to do it.

In one of those odd situations where something wrong is strangely right, the Galarraga game will go down in history and be remembered more than it would've had Joyce gotten the call right. Selig overturning it would've made things far worse and been more dangerous in any number of ways than doing what he did and letting it stand.

He did the right thing.

• Orioles....fire....DAVETrembley:

The...above...is to....INDICATE that former Orioles manager Dave TREM-bley looks like a spitting...IMAGE of....William....SHATNER!!!

After having had so many lean years in doing things owner Peter Angelos's way and patching holes in a haphazard fashion by buying declining veterans looking for their final paycheck and firing one manager after another, the Orioles rebuilt the right way under Andy MacPhail. They have a load of young talent and looked like a club that was sure to take a step forward this year. Their one question has always been in the manager's office with Trembley.

MacPhail is an executive who preferred stability to making capricious changes due to public pressure when things are going poorly and that extended to his managers. He ran the Twins with Tom Kelly as his manager; and the Cubs with Dusty Baker. Trembley has been the Orioles manager since mid-season 2007 when he replaced Sam Perlozzo and the club never improved to any great degree with him at the helm.

Year-after-year, they got off to solid starts and collapsed over the final months of the season losing, losing and losing some more. It was fair to absolve him of some of the responsibility for the poor results because of the division in which the Orioles play and that the talent level was limited; but this year, while they weren't expected to contend for a playoff spot, they were supposed to improve and they haven't.

In full context, the division is still as nightmarish as it was in past years and is in fact worse because the Blue Jays have played so well. The young pitching hasn't developed as expected, but that's par for the course when developing youth----sometimes it takes time. To be completely fair, MacPhail's moves have failed more than anything Trembley did. Garrett Atkins, Miguel Tejada, Kevin Millwood and Mike Gonzalez have been disasters.

MacPhail had to know this and for that reason may have been reluctant to toss Trembley overboard because it was as much MacPhail's responsibility as it was Trembley's; but the fan base has grown so sick of the losing and had to come face-to-face with the next-door Nationals being so respectable and preparing for the gathering storm of the Stephen Strasburg arrival that the Orioles had to do something if only for the sake of appearance.

In the end, the team wasn't getting any better under Trembley; he wasn't going to be the manager when the club turned the corner, so it makes sense to fire him now.

Trembley will get another job in baseball. He is quite admirable having worked his way up through the coaching ranks similarly to a football or hockey coach who didn't necessarily have to have played the game to be able to run a clubhouse. His rise was organic from the low minors all the way up to the big leagues and he should be lauded for that even though his results were poor.

The hiring of Juan Samuel to take over as interim manager is curious. From the outside it appears that Angelos has forced MacPhail's hand. The wise choice would've been Triple A Norfolk manager Gary Allenson (who will be taking over for Samuel as third base coach), but with the season lost, maybe it's a better idea to let Allenson function as as coach, get the lay of the land for the rest of the season and take over next year.

• The Prince on the Podcast:

I was a guest with Sal at SportsFan Buzz eight days ago. Listen here.

• Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide:

My book is still available on Amazon, I-Universe and Barnes and Noble.com. It's available for download as an E-book here. You can also now get it for less that five bucks on BN via download here.

I am tonight's entertainment!!!

The Perfection Of Imperfection

• The memory remains:

Reactionary explosions are laying waste to the reputation of a good umpire; diminishing a masterful performance by a journeyman pitcher; inspiring absurd threats by faceless and gutless buffoons who know nothing of baseball and less about humanity; and one mistake is serving to again tear apart the fabric of an institution in the name of blatant self-righteousness.

A perfect game was made imperfect last night in Detroit.

Let's take a look at the confluence of circumstance; the collision of fate; and the aftermath.

History blows up from the outside...and makes more history.

Off the top of your head and without thinking about it too deeply, can you name the pitchers in Major League history who've authored perfect games?

QUICK!!!

Here are the ones I remember immediately: David Cone; David Wells; Roy Halladay; Mark Buehrle; Dallas Braden; Kenny Rogers; Len Barker; Jim Bunning; Don Larsen.....um....um....um....Sandy Koufax.....um.....that's it.

Those are the pitchers that immediately come to mind when remembering perfection.

Now, do you remember the pitchers who've come within one out of perfection, only to lose it in one way or another?

Mike Mussina came within one out of perfection vs the Red Sox. That's the one that comes to mind immediately.

And that's it.

The complete list of pitchers who've thrown perfect games can be found here----Perfect Games in MLB history.

Now, do you remember Harvey Haddix?

On May 26th, 1959 Harvey Haddix pitched a game which has been referred to as the greatest masterpiece in baseball history with 12 perfect innings against the Milwaukee Braves.

36 batters came up; 36 batters went down against a lineup that included the Hall of Famers Hank Aaron, Eddie Mathews; along with a pretty impressive power hitter, Joe Adcock.

Harvey Haddix, a journeyman lefty who'd been serviceable, but never more than that, was perfect for 12 innings. The perfection was undone by the Pirates inability to score; by an error in the bottom of the 13th; and was made even more memorable as Adcock homered to win the game, but passed Aaron on the basepaths, nullifying the homer; what should've been a 3-run walk-off win became a 1-0 win for the Braves; Adcock lost his homer and Haddix lost his moment in history.

Or did he?

Will anyone be talking about the Mussina game in 60 years?

The Halladay, Braden, Barker, whoever game?

No.

Those games will be part of the tapestry that creates what baseball is, but not a story unto itself.

They will be talking about Armando Galarraga.

The Galarraga Imperfect Game will be the story.

It will never be forgotten.

Blaming the umpire?

There are so many umpires who have no clue what they're doing that----to paraphrase Whitey Herzog----it's lucky they have only two guesses much of the time.

Jim Joyce, a veteran umpire respected by players, coaches and managers alike, is not of their number. He's not combative; he's mostly invisible as a good umpire should be; and he's not drunk with power lording his authority over the 20-something multi-millionaires with whom he deals on a daily basis.

He's a human being who made a call that many others would not have had the courage to make. On a bang-bang play, the easiest thing in the world for Joyce would've been to call hitter Jason Donald out and recede into the shadows as the Tigers amassed in a joyous pile over Galarraga.

He didn't.

He mistakenly saw Donald as safe and he made the call he felt was right.

In what is an unheard of breaking of the baseball version of the "blue wall of silence", Joyce spoke to the media; apologized to Galarraga; is having his career and reputation by one mistake.

The game is so fast that to sit in a chair with a beer in hand and the remote in the other and rip every missed call is irresponsible silliness. Calling out an umpire for one gaffe and ignoring the 1000 calls they get correct is madness. Plays and judgment decisions take a millisecond to happen and are hit or miss especially as they're using the faultiness of eyesight.

Had this been a 1-hit shutout rather than a perfect game, it would've been discussed and disregarded as part of the game.

But it won't be; and neither will Jim Joyce.

And it's wrong.

The call for more replay is lunacy.

How's this supposed to work?

How many times can an umpire go traipsing into the umpire's room to check on a close call?

Games are too long as it is, so are there going to be three or four more delays to add another 45 minutes (at least) to each and every game? There are blown calls in every game; they're not as prominent as Joyce's mistake, but they happen. So, what now?

Let's just say, hypothetically, that instant replay on close base calls was in effect during last night's Tigers-Indians game. What's the protocol going to be not just for the review, but for the reaction?

Was Galarraga going to be standing by first base with his arms halfway between raised in triumph or at his sides in despondency? Were the Tigers going to be loitering around the baseline waiting for the umpires to emerge from their cave and make a call one way or the other? Were the fans going to be staring at the field with their mouths half-open scrambling for their lost ticket stubs in case the call went their way and perfection was established on the replay?

The spontaneity of the celebration would've looked contrived and ridiculous like the closing credits of the farcical TV series/movies Police Squad starring Leslie Nielson in which they froze at the conclusion of each episode in mid-laugh, holding coffee cups while the mailperson wandered aimlessly by dropping deliveries on their desks.

I don't want more instant replay. The home run calls are enough. Perhaps, in the playoffs there should be expanded replay; but apart from that, the human element is what makes baseball what it is and to sabotage that is another step on its pathway to ruin.

Jim Joyce and Armando Galarraga, together forever.

Because it was such a horrifically blown call; because of Austin Jackson's circus catch to start the ninth inning; because umpire Jim Joyce was so devastated by his mistake, openly apologized to Galarraga and will be remembered for this more than the good work he's done as a big league umpire; because of the renewed calls for instant replay, no one is going to forget this game.

Ever.

Can you say the same on any level about the other perfect games that have been pitched? Aside from the one Larsen pitched in the World Series----ably assisted by Yogi Berra's leap into Larsen's arms----do you have a deep-rooted attachment to any of the others in the same way that Galarraga's game has touched a nerve?

Armando Galarraga of the Tigers had perfection snatched from his grasp by umpire Jim Joyce's egregious missed call, but just like everything else, it evolves into what we make it.

Roberto Alomar spitting in the face of umpire John Hirschbeck sparked a friendship and mutual charity work that has crafted an exponential amount of good from a terrible incident.

Jose Canseco's self-serving book has cleaned up baseball from the era of performance enhancing drugs.

The same can and probably will happen with Jim Joyce and Armando Galarraga----linked by fate; attached by a mistake; and together forever.

• Throw it against the wall and hope it sticks:

In this piece on MLB Fan House, Ed Price drops the following nugget without context or explanation:

An official from another team said word going around is that Roy Oswalt would approve a trade only to the Phillies, Yankees or Cardinals.

Okay. So, Oswalt wouldn't agree to go to the Rangers? The Braves? The Dodgers? The Angels?

This one sentence is absolute garbage not because it's, well, absolute garbage, but because Oswalt's options are so limited, he can just about forget dictating where he'll go if he truly wants to be traded by the Astros.

Unlike the Stone Cold Killer, Cliff Lee, Oswalt is not a rental. After this season, he's guaranteed $18 million. Any team that trades for Oswalt will have Oswalt for at least 2011 and can exercise his contract option for 2012.

The Yankees don't have the desperate need for another starter that they'll take on that salary and ante up the prospects to get Oswalt; that the Phillies won't trade for him because they won't tacitly admit the mistake they made in trading Lee by going out and getting Oswalt (and don't have the money for him anyway); and the Cardinals can't afford to trade for him since they have to gather every single penny they have to keep Albert Pujols after next year.

This is the dumbest and most nonsensical thing I've ever heard.

Today at least. But it's early. And this is baseball.

• The Prince on the Podcast:

I was a guest with Sal at SportsFan Buzz last Thursday. Listen here.

• Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide:

My book is still available on Amazon, I-Universe and Barnes and Noble.com. It's available for download as an E-book here. You can also now get it for less that five bucks on BN via download here.

I'll show you. When the chips are down, these... these civilized people, they'll eat each other.

I'm not a monster.

I'm just ahead of the curve.

Next Stop For The Sputtering D-Train----Arizona

• Questionable? Yes. Ridicoulous? No:

I'd loaded up to unleash on the Diamondbacks for the on-the-surface madness of picking up Dontrelle Willis from the Tigers and going to the lengths of giving up a player (RHP Billy Buckner) to get him, but in examining the deal, it's not as crazy as it seems.

Let's weigh the circumstances.

He's worth a shot.

It seems like a long time ago that Dontrelle Willis was one of the top five pitchers in baseball and, due to the years running into one another, it is a long time ago. Five years to be exact when Willis won 22 games for the Marlins.

Since then, what began as a slow decline picked up speed until he tumbled down the mountain and collapsed in a heap of anxiety and wildness. Now, Willis is a shell of his former self only still getting chances because of what he once was; that he's left-handed; and since there's so little quality pitching available cheaply.

The Diamondbacks pitching is heinous. Brandon Webb is clearly not going to be back anytime soon and don't be surprised to see him out until late in the season when----as a courtesy or to possibly bring him back themselves (he's a free agent at the end of the year) if Webb comes back for a few "show-me" starts to exhibit his health. Perhaps if he can return by August and get a few starts in, the Diamondbacks can gets a prospect or two for him in a trade.

They're said to be discussing the possibility of trading both Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson. (I suggested teams call and ask about Haren in my posting last Friday before this came to light----link.) With the good performance from Ian Kennedy, they're left with Rodrigo Lopez and a cast of mediocre (at best) thousands to fill out the rotation. One of their number was Billy Buckner.

The D-Backs aren't paying Willis and didn't give up much to get him.

Initially, there was the reasonable question of why the Diamondbacks didn't wait until the 10-day window the Tigers had to trade Willis elapsed after he was designated him for assignment; the D-Backs could literally have gotten him for nothing. Had they done that, they would've run the risk of not getting Willis; and even if they did get him, they'd need to clear a roster spot for him regardless.

Details of exactly how much money the Tigers are kicking in to pay Willis's salary have yet to be disclosed; since Willis's contract is up after the year (he's getting $10 million this season); and the D-Backs yielded a live body in Buckner to get him, it's safe to assume the Tigers are paying almost all of it.

Buckner hasn't exactly been good---in fact, his numbers in the majors and minors indicate something less than a journeyman----organizational filler----the D-Backs gave up nothing of use for something that could be of use.

Willis hasn't been that bad this year.

While he hasn't been good, Willis hasn't been Oliver Perez awful; he hasn't had a Steve Blass/Rick Ankiel inability to throw the ball anywhere close to where he wants. Willis is currently so fragile that any small mishap will send him over the edge, but he's been moderately competitive so far.

He's salvageable. He can pitch in Arizona without expectations and pressure that come along with a contending team and the return to the National League might awaken his enthusiasm and rejuvenate his career. Perhaps the chance to hit will give him something to look forward and spur a mound recovery. You never know what can make everything click once again.

Other locations may have been better for Willis.

Speculation centered around a return to the Marlins for Willis; but I felt that the best place for him was St. Louis with the Cardinals and Dave Duncan to try and tear down his motion and mentality and rebuild it as he's done so many times before with heretofore "lost" causes like Kyle Lohse; Joel Pineiro; Dave Stewart; Mike Moore, and many others.

I question whether D-Backs pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. and manager A.J. Hinch (who have problems of their own too numerous to count in a limited space) have the capacity to rebuild Willis now or ever; but they need the pitching; they need the jolt his personality adds; and it's worth the gamble.

It's easy to insert the aforementioned Oliver Perez of the Mets jokes here. "If the Mets DFA Perez, maybe the Diamondbacks would claim him too," blah blah blah; but there's nothing to lose for the Diamondbacks with Willis. It's hard to see him getting it all back, but there's always that chance and it's worth the risk for what essentially amounts to nothing.

In the final analysis, it's a mutually advantageous roll of the dice. Willis needs to pitch; the Diamondbacks need pitching. Either way and for both sides, it's no lose. Why not?

• The Raul Ibanez fall from grace:

Raul Ibanez's Phillies career has been made by his first two months of 2009 when he was a contender for the National League MVP. Since then, he's been terrible. Injuries could explain away his rapid decline last year----he had a shoulder problems in his career and a groin issue last year. It could be that he's 38-years old; or the National League may have learned how to pitch to him.

Whatever it is, Ibanez has been a player who would've been replaced had it not been for a large contract ($11.5 million annually through 2011); and Phillies manager Charlie Manuel's loyalty to his veterans.

Look at his numbers from the first two months of 2009 and what he did after and you see a crash of meteoric proportions; and not much has changed for 2010----splits.

Is he hurt?

Is he shot?

How long can the Phillies continue to put him out there while he's providing almost nothing offensively?

It's a guarantee that the Phillies are going to start hitting and someone's going to pay for this team-wide slump they're in. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth especially are going to go on a rampage sooner rather than later; but Ibanez? I don't know.

Manuel's loyalty to his veterans is known, but limited. He benched Jimmy Rollins in late June last year as Rollins was awful over the first three months of the season; Rollins played better over the second half of the season, but never regained his MVP-form from 2007. Will he sit Ibanez for a week to let him "clear his head" as he did with Rollins?

They can play Ben Francisco for a few games and re-insert Ibanez to see if a break does the trick, but what if it doesn't? What then?

Is it possible that the Phillies, in need of a spark and witnessing what's happened with Jason Heyward of the Braves and Ike Davis of the Mets, would bring top prospect Domonic Brown up from Double A Reading and give him a chance to play?

Every organization has their own philosophy of when the promote their prospects. The Phillies have been notoriously hesitant to give their prized rookies a shot before they deemed them fully ready. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard were both 25 when he got their chance (Howard's way was blocked by Jim Thome); and J.A. Happ was also 25 when he became a full-time major leaguer. You can't argue with the Phillies success in developing their players and Brown is still only 22.

But would the combination of a slumbering offense; Ibanez's woes; the need for some spice; and the way Heyward and Davis have played expedite Brown's arrival in Philly?

I doubt it would happen until after the All Star break at the earliest, but the National League is so closely bunched that the Phillies can't afford to mess around relying on a fading veteran if he's no longer performing. Salary and loyalty aside, Ibanez has to produce----if he still can.

• The Prince on the Podcast:

I was a guest with Sal at SportsFan Buzz last Thursday. Listen here.

• Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide:

My book is still available on Amazon, I-Universe and Barnes and Noble.com. It's available for download as an E-book here. You can also now get it for less that five bucks on BN via download here.

I'm the voice inside your head that you refuse to hear.

Join me and I will complete your training.

Strasburg'd Out

• You watch with breathless anticipation, I'll watch with cold detachment:
  

I've had enough of the Stephen Strasburg hype already and it hasn't really hit full-steam yet.

With Strasburg's debut scheduled for Friday (it'd be funny if it rains), the machine in which he's trapped is building to a monumental conclusion. So many questions...

Is he going to be delivered in "The Joba"? The airtight sarcophagus specifically designed to maintain the freshness of its inhabitant?

Will he be available to speak to the media upon every trip to the urinal?

What does he eat if he eats at all?

Has agent Scott Boras had his "confrontation" with Felipe Lopez over his pre-season firing and will he be in attendance to watch his prized pupil, Strasburg----a big enough star that Boras will pay attention to him, at least until he's no longer a cash machine?

Will former number one draft picks be there? Maybe they can create categories for them to serve as the highs and lows of being so relentlessly overhyped that no one could live up to the expectations unless he develops into Randy Johnson.

Category 1 could be "A Cautionary Tale" with David Clyde, the high school sensation from Texas who was the first overall pick of the Rangers in 1973, went straight to the big leagues at 18, was abused by manager Billy Martin and pitching coach Art Fowler and flamed out by the time he was 24.

Category 2 could be "Great Expectations, Mediocre Results" with Shawon Dunston. Dunston batted over .700 at his Brooklyn high school; had an arm strong enough to have been a fireballing pitcher; could run; and was a nice, well-mannered kid. He had an 18 year career as an okay player----no more, no less.

Category 3 could be "He Was Drafted First?!?" with Tim Foli; Bill Almon; and Phil Nevin. Foli and Almon were utility infielders who lasted a long time in the big leagues but never achieved anything of note. Nevin was a first round flameout for three teams before learning to catch and then achieving some big numbers with the Padres that are, um, dubious in timing if you trace the timeline of his rise and fall and the circumstances around the game.

Category 4 could be "They Made It, But..." with Darryl Strawberry; and Bob Horner. Strawberry had a great career, but there's always going to be a "what might have been" aspect to what he failed to achieve. It should've been Strawberry who broke Hank Aaron's home run record----and he would've done it clean (from PEDs anyway). With Horner, he went straight to the big leagues out of Arizona State, was a pretty good power hitter for a few years, played in Japan and his career ended at 30.

Category 5 could be "Watch Out!" with Brien Taylor; Matt Bush; and Josh Hamilton. Taylor was the Yankees' number 1 pick in 1991, had near-100 mph fastball and limitless potential until he got into a fight and tore his shoulder. Bush was a local kid drafted by the Padres as a shortstop, had trouble with the law and was dumped; he's showing promise as a pitcher in the minor leagues for the Rays. Hamilton's substance abuse issues are widely known and treated grandly as a story of "recovery"; his story reached a similar level as Strasburg's ability has and Hamilton is still a question mark after a public bout of drinking caught on camera.

And finally, Category 6 could be "They Made It" with Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer and Chipper Jones. Griffey, ARod, Gonzalez, Mauer and Jones are or were all superstars. Griffey, despite his diva-like behaviors at times, has had a career mostly beyond reproach because he played clean----he's the best baseball player I've ever seen. ARod has PED issues and controversies surrounding him; Gonzalez was traded twice before getting to the Padres; Mauer is a machine; and Jones was only drafted as a consolation prize because then-Braves GM Bobby Cox was convinced by the rhetoric of consensus number one pick Todd Van Poppel that he was going to college, period. (Of course Van Poppel signed with the Athletics for a big league contract when they took a flier draft pick on him at #14; he never panned out.)

I've had enough of Stephen Strasburg.

No one knows what he's going to be. He's been a professional player for two months. He could be the greatest pitcher ever; he could be a solid and useful performer; he could flame out; he could get hurt; he could do absolutely nothing.

This is a byproduct of the age in which we live of rampant information inundating us at every turn; the 100+ mph fastball; and the hunger for a story, positive or negative, from the leeches in the media.

I'm entirely ambivalent to Strasburg.

He'll serve my purposes no matter what he does and I'm open about this fact.

Does Strasburg----from his cocoon of pitch counts; innings limits; accolades and money----realize what he is? That he's a vessel for the whims of others who are piggybacking themselves onto his talents for their own ends?

We've reached the point, before he's thrown a big league pitch, where his performance is irrelevant. He's an entity unto himself and the Nationals; his agent; the media; and the public are all going to carve him up to get a piece whether he becomes a Tom Seaver; a Ben McDonald; or a faceless middle-reliever who has to scrape together a career after a big explosion and rapid extinguishing of the resulting fire.

It's prophecy.

It's prologue.

It's epilogue.

Let me know when he's pitching. I'll watch with a cold detachment because history has shown he can't possibly be as great as the prepackaging indicates.

No one could. And no one will. Not even Stephen Strasburg.

• Viewer Mail 6.1.2010:

Kyle Johnson writes RE 2010's Good, Bad and Absurd:

No mention of Vlad Guerrero's MVP caliber season in Texas for your "Good Section"?

Vladimir Guerrero has been rejuvenated with the Rangers due in large part to that hitters' heaven that is Rangers Ballpark at Arlington. His numbers on the road are awful----Splits. That said, his value isn't just his on-field play, but his influence on the clubhouse, especially with the Latin players.

As I mentioned in my podcast appearance last week (link below), Guerrero lives with his mother and functions as a caretaker to the young players giving them a place to feel comfortable and have someone watching over them in every aspect. For a team with the young talents like Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus, this is something very, very important.

By season's end, Guerrero will likely be overshadowed in the MVP voting by Robinson Cano, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, but his "value" is more than what he's done in his comeback. The fact that the ballpark has a great deal to do with it is irrelevant in that scope.

The Brooklyn Trolley Blogger writes RE 2010's Good, Bad and Absurd:

Then there's the pending rise of Steven Strasburg and the ultimate fall of Dontrelle Willis.

The loss of Lima Time.

The Rangers bankruptcy with $24 million still owed to ARod and the Divorce McCourts in LA.

**Just can't wait to see Kenny Williams lay waste to that clubhouse!

It's a fascinating case study with Willis how someone who is so gregarious and emotional----and becomes a folk hero because of it----can have those same attributes contribute to a downfall when things go poorly. Willis is salvageable.

Jose Lima was a character that contributed to baseball with his personality even as he struggled after being an excellent pitcher for a couple of years with the Astros.

The Rangers are in a position where money might be a factor as they try to improve on the fly and make the playoffs. Can they take on Roy Oswalt's salary or not?

The Dodgers are in strangely good shape even with that circus-like atmosphere.

With Kenny Williams, the media always seems to try and steer him into firing his manager; making a trade; or doing whatever----and he always resists, instead choosing to do things on his own schedule when he sees fit. He might drop a stick of dynamite, or he might not. That's what makes him one of baseball's intriguing characters.

• The Prince on the Podcast:

I was a guest with Sal at SportsFan Buzz on Thursday. Listen here. My voice is more intoxicating than a bottle of Jack Daniel's; more enlivening than 10 cups of coffee----and that's before getting to the stuff I say!!!

• Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide:

My book is still available on Amazon, I-Universe and Barnes and Noble.com. It's available for download as an E-book here. You can also now get it for less that five bucks on BN via download here.

Do I really look like a guy with a plan?