Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide

• Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide is now available:

My book is available immediately via the I-Universe website and should be up on Amazon and Barnes and Noble within days. The link is here if you absolutely, positively cannot wait----Link----and I can totally understand either way.

• Excerpt from the book:

For anyone teetering on whether or not to make the investment, I'm printing an excerpt. The most innocuous team for whom to do this is a team whose future could be predicted by a learning disabled monkey.

Of course, I'm referring to....the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The following is how the book is formatted for every team. It's the template. It's what it is. It's how I write.

Take it or leave it.

But hopefully take it.

Those that read me regularly pretty much know what's coming.

Everyone else had better duck.

Pittsburgh Pirates

2009 Record: 62-99; Sixth Place, National League Central

2009 Recap:

There are some teams for whom the statement: “Oh, they had their normal year” would be a good thing like the Angels, Yankees and Marlins. For others? Not so much.

The Pirates did what the Pirates always do. Before the season, they signed several lower echelon free agents they didn’t need; waited until mid-season, made incomprehensible trades; and lost 99 games, finishing in their familiar surrounding----last place. Being a part of the Pirates organization is like a repeat offender who bounces in and out of jail and has grown so accustomed to the regimented life of being an inmate that he prefers it to the outside world. At least the club and their remaining fans know what to expect.

2010 ADDITIONS:

2B/3B Akinori Iwamura was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays.
RHP Octavio Dotel signed a 1-year contract with club option.
OF Ryan Church signed a 1-year contract.
RHP Brendan Donnelly signed a 1-year contract.
INF Bobby Crosby signed a 1-year contract.
LHP Javier Lopez signed a 1-year contract.
LHP Justin Thomas was claimed off waivers from the Seattle Mariners.
RHP Chris Jakubauskas was claimed off waivers from the Seattle Mariners.
LHP Wil Ledezma signed a minor league contract.
RHP Vinnie Chulk signed a minor league contract.
OF John Raynor was claimed off waivers from the Florida Marlins.
LHP Jack Taschner signed a minor league contract.
LHP Neal Cotts signed a minor league contract.
RHP D.J. Carrasco signed a minor league contract.
OF Brandon Jones was claimed off waivers from the Atlanta Braves.

2010 SUBTRACTIONS:

RHP Matt Capps was non-tendered.
RHP Jesse Chavez was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays.
INF Brian Bixler was traded to the Cleveland Indians.
SS Luis Cruz was claimed off waivers by the Milwaukee Brewers.

2010 PROJECTED LINEUP: C-Ryan Doumit; 1B-Jeff Clement; 2B-Akinori Iwamura; 3B-Andy LaRoche; SS-Ronny Cedeno; LF-Lastings Milledge; CF-Andrew McCutchen; RF-Garrett Jones

2010 PROJECTED STARTING ROTATION: Zach Duke; Paul Maholm; Ross Ohlendorf; Charlie Morton; Kevin Hart

2010 PROJECTED BULLPEN: Octavio Dotel; Brendan Donnelly; Joel Hanrahan; Evan Meek; Javier Lopez; D.J. Carrasco; Chris Jakubauskas

2010 BENCH: C-Jason Jaramillo; INF-Bobby Crosby; INF-Ramon Vazquez; OF-Ryan Church; OF-Brandon Moss; 2B-Delwyn Young; OF-Steve Pearce

2010 EXTRA PITCHERS/PROSPECTS: Jose Ascanio; Ramon Aguerro; Brad Lincoln; Daniel McCutchen; Bryan Morris; Ronald Uviedo; Donald Veal; Michael Dubee; Rudy Owens

2010 EVERYDAY PROSPECTS: Pedro Alvarez; Argenis Diaz; Jose Tabata

ASSESSMENTS:

MANAGEMENT:

Ugh.

The Pirates complaints of being unable to compete because of financial constraints are falling on deaf ears more and more frequently. The way teams like the Marlins find a way to win under a budget is bad enough; but what makes the Pirates such calamity is that there seems to be no viable plan in place aside from signing journeymen; trading stars; constantly being on the rebuild; and repeating the process on an annual basis with no improvement.

No one knows who’s running things in Pittsburgh.

Is it team president Frank Coonelly?

Coonelly came out of the commissioner’s office----where he was a Vice President and General Counsel for labor relations----to take over the Pirates. With the Pirates, he seems more intent on making sure his innovations while working in baseball’s “braintrust” are implemented whether they’re going to make the Pirates any better or not. The slotting system for the draft; the whining about revenue sharing; the idea that teams without money can’t compete----all are feeding into the Coonelly plan; but it’s not helping the Pirates.

I found it hilarious that baseball stepped in with the Marlins and forced an agreement that they’d spend more money on payroll when they’ve proven that they can win without spending a load of money on payroll; yet the Pirates are allowed to be an entity of self-sabotaging stupidity and destruction with no end in sight to the carnage.

What about the Pirates?

Why are they allowed to occupy a place in Major League Baseball with this history of embarrassment and ineptitude whose list of baseball-related sins are growing longer and longer?

GM Neal Huntington has an impressive pedigree after having worked for the Cleveland Indians under Mark Shapiro, but it’s hard to know how much power he has with the Pirates or whether he knows what he’s doing.

Was it his idea to trade for Akinori Iwamura? To sign Brendan Donnelly and Octavio Dotel to beef up a bullpen that, quite frankly, wasn’t all that bad last year? When they needed starting pitching and bats?

The trades made at mid-season last year defy explanation. Their lightning strike trade of Nate McLouth looked to me like the Braves called with an offer and said take it or leave it and the Pirates panicked and grabbed it before even letting the rest of baseball know that McLouth was available. They did what the Pirates always do: they traded any and all marketable veterans----Freddy Sanchez; Jack Wilson; Ian Snell----for the “future”.

When that future is going to become the present is anyone’s guess.

Things got worse this off-season as they non-tendered the useful and tradeable closer Matt Capps.

Why?

I’m not even going to speculate a reason because I might get caught in whatever bizarro world in which the Pirates function and not be able to get back. Suffice it to say the following----it’s the Pirates----and leave it there.

Some questions are better left unanswered.

For the greater good.

John Russell is in a no-win situation as manager. But looking on the bright side, he’s also in a no-lose situation.

Much like the disastrous years endured by the Orioles from 1997 until Andy MacPhail took over, there was always owner Peter Angelos and the rampant dysfunction that defined the Orioles in the intervening years to explain away anyone who got fired. The organization was such a mess that blaming the manager alone was impossible.
Such is the case now with the Pirates.

No one could win with that team and their rampant and neverending cluelessness.

Is Russell a good manager?

Who knows?

He was a respected catcher when he played; he had success as a minor league manager; but he’s done some things with the Pirates that have made no sense at all such as yanking Zach Duke from the game in September 28th in which he was dominating against the Dodgers. Duke allowed one run (in the bottom of the ninth) and with two outs, Russell pulled him...with an 11-1 lead...after he’d thrown 103 pitches...and allowed 4 hits.

The proffered reason was that Russell wanted Duke to receive the cheers from the crowd on the way off the field....from the reported attendance of 16,696.

Yah.

Even if the attendance figure was accurate, how many people do you think were still in the stands for an 11-1 game between the Pirates and Dodgers?

You can feel free to shake your head, because that’s all I can do as well.

Again, explaining anything anyone involved with the Pirates does is tempting sanity.

STARTING PITCHING:

Zach Duke had a comeback 2009 after being terrible for the better part of three years after a big splash in 2005 when overenthusiasm anointed him as the next big time lefty.

From 2006 to 2008, Duke was awful and borderline non-competitive; and it had nothing to do with pitching for the Pirates. He was just plain bad. But in 2009, he pitched well despite a 11-16 record. In looking at his individual game performances, he should’ve won 20 games last season.

Believe it.

Duke’s a contract pitcher with a stiff motion, but if he was on a better team, his results would be that of a good, mid-rotation starter. Duke is earning $4.2 million this year; is arbitration eligible after this season; and will be a free agent after 2011. Given the Pirates history, he might be available at mid-season and a trade would be the best possible thing to happen for Zach Duke.

Lefty Paul Maholm went 8-9 in 31 starts in 2009. He gives up a lot of hits (221 in 194 innings), but not many homers (14). He throws strikes and could also be a solid mid-rotation starter for a good team. He’s owed over $10 million through 2011; he could be moved.

Ross Ohlendorf had a good year in his first as a full-time starter. In 176 innings, Ohlendorf allowed 165 hits; and only 53 walks. He’s a contact pitcher with a good sinking fastball and slider. Moving him into the rotation was a great idea and he could be an innings-eating winner.

Charlie Morton is a former Braves prospect who came over in the trade of Nate McLouth. Morton reminds me of Carl Pavano (when he was with the Marlins) in bodytype and stuff. Morton pitched serviceably for the Pirates in 18 starts despite a 5-9 record and 4.55 ERA. He allowed 102 hits in 97 innings and control is a problem for him with 40 walks; but he only allowed 7 homers. The 26-year-old has been a winner in the minors.

Kevin Hart was acquired from the Cubs at mid-season. Hart was bad after joining the Pirates with a 1-8 record in 10 starts. His ancillary numbers were worse. A 6.92 ERA: 74 hits allowed in 53 innings; and 26 walks are his legacy from 2009. He has to pitch better in 2009 because he can’t pitch much worse.

BULLPEN:

Octavio Dotel chose the Pirates because they were one of the few teams that was going to give him the chance to close. Like the proverbial tree falling in the woods, does a team need a closer if there are barely any games to close? We’re going to find out with the Pirates.
Dotel is coming off two useful years with the White Sox. He allows a lot of homers, but still racks up more than a strikeout an inning. He’s prone to the home run ball and has never been able to handle closing without letting the pressure of the job get to him. He signed a 1-year, $3.5 million contract and could be trade bait as the season moves along.

Brendan Donnelly made it back to the big leagues with the Marlins and, after a few years in which he looked like he was shot; he got some big outs late in the season. Donnelly struck out 25 in 25 innings for the Marlins, and had a 1.78 ERA. He parlayed that brief spurt into a 1-year, $1.25 million contract with the Pirates. Why the Pirates need to be spending all that money on a veteran, journeyman reliever is beyond me.

Joel Hanrahan would’ve been a better option at closer than Dotel: A) because he’s better; and B) because he’s younger and could grow into the job with the young Pirates as they ostensibly try to “rebuild”. That point was made moot when Hanrahan began having elbow pain. He’s going to miss the start of the regular season and as of this writing there’s not timetable for his return.

Evan Meek is a 26-year-old righty who pitched well in 41 games last season. Meek only allowed 34 hits in 47 innings; struck out 42 and allowed 2 homers.

Lefty Javier Lopez has a quirky motion and was terrible last season for the Red Sox. He’s been successful against lefties in his career because of his slingshot motion and lefty specialists tend to have fluctuating performances. The 32-year-old could regain his effectiveness with the Pirates.

D.J. Carrasco was a surprise non-tender for the White Sox after having a good year in 2009. The 33-year-old righty had a 3.76 ERA in 49 games; and allowed 103 hits in 93 innings. He was effective last season and is a positive, low-cost pickup for the Pirates.

Chris Jakubauskas is a longtime minor league journeyman who made it to the big leagues with the Mariners last season at age 30. He allowed 15 homers in 93 innings, but he’s been a successful starter in the minors and should be a decent middle reliever/spot starter for the Pirates.

LINEUP:

Ryan Doumit missed a chunk of the 2009 season with a wrist injury, but when he’s healthy, he’s an underrated catcher. The switch-hitter has some pop in his bat (15 homers in 2008); hits for average and gets on base. He doesn’t strike out much and has good extra base power. Doumit’s about average defensively behind the plate. He’s guaranteed slightly over $8.6 million through 2011 and might be traded at mid-season in another Pirates purge.

Jeff Clement is a lefty swinging former top Mariners catching prospect who was acquired in the trade of Jack Wilson and Ian Snell last season. Clement is now 26; he showed some power/on base ability in the minors, but didn’t hit at all in 2008 with the Mariners (.227 average in 224 plate appearances) and it remains to be seen if he can hit big league pitching.

The Pirates avidly pursued Akinori Iwamura to play second base for them.

No. I don’t know why.

Iwamura is a good player; he can run; hits some doubles; plays good defense----but why do the Pirates need him?

He’s making $4.25 million this year and, while he’s a cog in a machine for a good team, the Pirates have no use for him. That they chased him so aggressively makes me wonder what it is the expect him to do for them? Unless they wanted another veteran piece to trade at mid-season (and this possibility is eliminated because it would imply an actual strategy), then they didn’t need him and they certainly didn’t have to give up a good arm like Jesse Chavez to get him.

Andy LaRoche showed flashes of the potential that made him a top Dodgers prosepct. LaRoche got off to a horrid start, but in 590 plate appearances, LaRoche had 29 doubles; 5 triples; and 12 homers. He batted .258 and had a .330 on base percentage and only struck out 84 times. His fielding at third base was quite good as well. LaRoche put up big power numbers in the minors and now, at age 26, he’s beginning to fulfill his promise.

Ronny Cedeno was acquired from the Mariners at mid-season in 2009. Cedeno can’t really hit; isn’t a good fielder; doesn’t steal bases and I don’t know why anyone would want him on their roster at all, let alone as their starting shortstop.

Lastings Milledge was acquired from the Nationals last season. Milledge is with his third organization. He showed some flashes of his All Star ability after joining the Pirates as he batted .291 in 58 games. He’s still only 25 and if he’s given a chance to play every day, I still believe he can be a 15-20 homer man with 20+ stolen bases.

Now we get to Andrew McCutchen.

If there’s a light in the collapsed mine shaft that is the Pittsburgh Pirates organization from top-to-bottom, it’s Andrew McCutchen.

I.....love.....this.....kid.

He’s isn’t going to be a star; he isn’t going to be a superstar; he’s going to be a potential MVP, mega-star.

I know this not by seeing him hit; not by seeing him play defense; not by seeing him throw. I know this by seeing him run. Andrew McCutchen might be the fastest baseball player I’ve even seen in my entire life and he cut the bases perfectly as he didn’t even look like he was touching the ground. It was a thing of beauty the first time I saw him run out a triple. Right there and then, I said, “that’s it; mega-star”.

McCutchen is still raw; he still needs to learn how to use his speed defensively; and to steal bases. But the ball explodes off his bat; he has a good eye now and it’s only going to get better. He’s going to be a 25 homer man; with 20 doubles and 20 triples along with 50 stolen bases.

If anyone wants to cling to some small shred of the Pirates shipwreck, it’s Andrew McCutchen----future mega-star.

Garrett Jones came out of nowhere to hit 21 homers and post a .372 on base percentage in 358 plate appearances. Jones, 28, had been minor league filler with only 84 plate appearances in the big leagues (in 2007 with the Twins) to his credit before coming to the Pirates organization before last season. He’d always put up 20+ homers in the minors, but never got a chance to play in the big leagues. Jones spent five years in Triple A!

The lefty swinging Jones got his chance and took advantage of it. We’ll see if it was a lightning flash that will strike and quickly disappear or if he’s the real deal. With the power numbers he’s put up in the minors, I suspect it’s real.

BENCH:

Jason Jaramillo played regularly with Doumit injured and the 27-year-old switch-hitter batted .259 in 224 plate appearances with 14 doubles and 3 homers. He’s average defensively and has never hit much in the minors. He’s a backup.

Bobby Crosby was signed to a 1-year contract and will probably find himself playing shortstop regularly shortly after the season starts not because he deserves it, but because Cedeno is so heinous. Crosby never hit for average in his years with the Athletics; nor did he get on base; but he had some power. In the years since winning the Rookie of the Year award in 2004, Crosby’s been horrible. He can’t hit.

Ramon Vazquez was one of 2008’s inexplicable veteran acquisitions. Vazquez is a journeyman who somehow parlayed his career year with the Rangers in 2008 into a 2-year contract with the Pirates. He reverted to normal in 2009 as he batted .230 in 239 plate appearances. They’re paying him $2 million this year, and he could be traded to a contender at mid-season.

Ryan Church was released by the Braves after he proved exactly what I said about him when the Mets traded him for Jeff Francoeur----as a player, he doesn’t live up to his statistical parts. It took Bobby Cox a month to realize this and to bench him. Church always looks like a better player than he actually is. He vapes out on the field; strikes out too much and simply isn’t that good. He can hit an occasional homer; has a great arm in the outfield and might have use for a contender late in the season. He signed a 1-year, $1.5 million contract with the Pirates and will be trade bait at mid-season.

Brandon Moss is a journeyman outfielder who got a chance to play regularly in 2009 and didn’t take advantage of it. He batted .236 with a .304 on base; 7 homers and 41 RBI. He’s a fifth outfielder.

Delwyn Young is a 27-year-old outfielder, second baseman who put up big offensive numbers in the minors with a high average, on base and 18 home run power. He’s never gotten a chance to play every day in the big leagues and the Pirates would be better suited to have a long look at Young than to play Iwamura at second base.

Steven Pearce is a 27-year old outfielder who batted .206 in 186 at bats in 2009. He’s put up power/on base numbers in the minors and might have use as a bat off the bench.

PREDICTION:

What are the Pirates doing?

Is there a plan in place aside from trading veterans at mid-season and putting forth the idea that they’re building for some future that’s never going to come? Why is it that the league steps in with a club that has no need for it like the Marlins, but the Pirates are allowed to go on their merry way as the rudderless leech on the rest of baseball that the once-proud franchise has become?

This club isn’t run with the intent of making it competitive; it’s run as an agenda for the club president Frank Coonelly to push the ideas he formulated while working in the commissioner’s office. There’s no reason for anything they do other than to reach an end that is floating and elusive. Even when they have some talent that has use, they still find a way to botch it as they did with the insane decision to not tender a contract to their erstwhile closer, Capps.

There are some good players on this roster such as McCutchen, LaRoche and Doumit, but does anyone believe that these players are going to be part of any Pirates revival? Is such a thing possible while they’re under the auspices of the circus that populates their front office?

Expect another bad start; another series of veterans traded away for “prospects” and the argument that they couldn’t be much worse with youngsters than with the departing veterans, so why not make the moves?

This organization is a disaster. The fans of Pittsburgh are apathetic and disgusted with the 17 consecutive losing years. Why should they invest their time, their money and most importantly, their emotions into a club that neither cares about them nor wants to make an honest effort toward winning? The club will make their perfunctory deals, sign the likes of Dotel, Donnelly and Church and try to make it appear as if they’re doing something when in reality, they’re doing absolutely nothing. Until they bring in competent management that has an interest in winning and improving, that won’t change.

If baseball wants to step in with an organization, they should leave the Marlins alone and focus their attention on the Pirates. Maybe after this year and another season of over 90 losses, they’ll say enough’s enough.

I wouldn’t hold my breath.

PREDICTED RECORD: 67-95

2010 Stories To Watch, Part X

• The ultimate in low-budget, blood-spattered action flicks continues:

These scripts almost write themselves. No fiction I could come up with will ever match reality.

Well, maybe the fiction I could come up with would be more wild and engaging than reality; nobody else though.

The aftershock and fallout of the Joe Mauer contract:

Already it's started.

After Joe Mauer and the Twins made their long-term marriage official, the speculation of the affect on the industry and other players began.

MLB Trade Rumors considers the comparison between Prince Fielder and Mauer in this posting. Some of the assertions therein look oddly familiar, specifically the mentioning of Mauer's hometown status and that he's not represented by Scott Boras. Wonder where I read that before; or possibly wrote that before.

But that's neither here nor there.

The only player whose upcoming free agency could possibly be compared to Mauer's is Albert Pujols. As much as Minnesota is Mauer's home, St. Louis has become Pujols-country. Pujols is not represented by Boras (Dan Lozano represents Pujols); he doesn't want to leave; and he's not a money-whore.

Much like the floated nonsense that Mauer would leave; that Mauer might be traded; that the negotiations were likely to drag out; that they could fall apart at any moment, Pujols is in the same boat. Pujols could request a blank check from a big market team and get it; these stories regarding Pujols will go in the same direction. They'll be written; they'll be discussed; and they'll be absurd.

Albert Pujols is not leaving St. Louis. Ever. Period.

As for the comparison of the day, Prince Fielder, he's not going to be a Brewer in 2012; in fact, there's every chance that if the Brewers fall from contention at mid-season this year, they'll put him up for auction and he's out of Milwaukee by July.

Represented by Scott Boras, Fielder is an intense competitor who wants his money. Even though the Yankees won't have the need nor the desire to pay him, if the Red Sox miss out on Adrian Gonzalez, they could make a play for Fielder. It would be a move reminiscent to the Phillies backing away from Roy Halladay at mid-season 2009, instead turning to Cliff Lee; and it would yield the same result----a power hitter for the middle of the lineup who's a free agent at the end of 2011.

The Angels, White Sox and Mets would be able to pay Fielder to keep him; and the Braves have the prospects, are going to need a bat and have a history of being aggressive (sometimes too aggressive) in making mid-season trades.

That the trading team will definitely have Fielder for 2010 and 2011 should bring some good prospects to the Brewers in a trade even if the trading club doesn't choose to keep him after 2011.

Fielder would be better-served going to an American League team where he'd be able to DH. While his beefy (to be generous) body is ridiculed for being "fat", he's just naturally big and if he lost weight, some of his massive power would go along with it; he's also quicker defensively and on the bases than he's given credit for.

The Brewers are in flux. They're not going to be bad so that they start a teardown; but they're not contenders either unless the Wild Card number of wins falls to the mid-80s. I expect an early season managerial change from Ken Macha to Willie Randolph and if they're going to move forward looking toward a retooling from the Fielder-led group that went to the playoffs in 2008, what better way to do it than to deal Fielder himself?

All due respect to Prince Fielder, you can find a first baseman who'll hit and drive in runs; you can't find a catcher like Joe Mauer, so equating the two in any way is ludicrous.

The Mauer deal will affect no one because of the unique situation between player and team; but the silliness will pop up again and again out of convenience.

Ignore it is my advice.

Tension with the White Sox:

The latest "controversy"with the White Sox centers around manager Ozzie and Oney Guillen's Twitter accounts; the son resigned from the club as "scouting video technician" because they wanted him to tone down his tweets.

With any other team this would be seen as a problem; with the White Sox, Guillen and GM Kenny Williams, it's nothing.

When has there not been some wild and wacky thing going on around Guillen and his ingrained inability to censor himself or keep his emotions in check? And when has it negatively affected the club? It's meaningless. Guillen's not getting fired; Williams isn't going to let this back-and-forth----as personal as it seems----bother the relationship.

More than any other club, the off-field distractions that Guillen sometimes appears to intentionally engender creates an energy rather than a distraction and if the players are used to it and don't care, why should anyone else? The list of Guillen explosions is legendary. From ripping players, coaches, media members and opponents in public; to the Twitter account; to his son, it's like a built up callous. Eventually, it's unnoticeable and doesn't alter any behaviors or results.

Is it a big issue that the "video scouting technician" resigned?

Who cares?

It's an entry-level baseball job that's usually given to a nondescript former intern or young man trying to break into baseball's front office. Because Oney's last name is Guillen, suddenly it's seen as a position of importance and given relevance. So Oney resigned? Would anyone even pay attention to the arrogance of a 24-year-old quitting a job in baseball through youthful self-importance based on nothing other than his dad's the manager of the team?

This won't hurt the White Sox.

In fact, it might help them. We've seen this type of energy----created by a dispute----spur teams on previously. Aside from that, it means nothing.

The cyclical nature of injuries:

After the way the injury-wheel got stuck at Citi Field last season and savaged the Mets like the Grim Reaper's younger brother----the Belligerent Reaper----showed up and was bent on causing pain rather than death, so it's been with dings, dents and catastrophes popping up everywhere in baseball rather than in one place.

The Twins Joe Nathan is lost for the season with Tommy John surgery.

Cliff Lee of the Mariners needed surgery on a bone spur and now has an abdominal strain.

Albert Pujols is having back spasms.

Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks is still having shoulder problems.

Aroldis Chapman of the Reds left yesterday's game with a stiff back.

These are just a few of the injury issues around everyone's camp. While they're not inspiring the laughter and ridicule the Mets received last season, they're of a similar nature.

Injuries happen and sometimes there's no blame and no explanation. While the Mets medical mishaps last season were part of the tragi-comedy 2009 became, the way injuries hit like lightning strikes everywhere show that the reach of the Belligerent Reaper (who's yet to graduate to a full-blown sickle and is still carrying around ligament shredders; a hamstring puller; and a back spasmer), is traveling around and wreaking havoc.

I don't see anyone laughing as they did at the Mets though. It wasn't funny then; and it's not funny now when it happens to other teams.

The Yankees "battle" for fifth starter:

They're playing this to the hilt and it's gotten to the point where no one should even pay attention anymore.

It's enough.

The candor of the aforementioned Guillen would be much-appreciated in the face of Yankees manager Joe Girardi's cautious use of language and flailing joints like a puppet whose strings are being manipulated by the front office.

Is there anyone who doesn't realize that Phil Hughes is a starter and that Joba Chamberlain is a reliever? Anyone outside the Yankees organization and among the holding out stat zombies who still insist Chamberlain's innings as a starter would outweigh his value as a reliever?

I'm wondering what would've been said in 1996 had the value of the number of innings a young right named Mariano Rivera would've provided as a starter left in question his use and been equated with "value". That Yankees team would not have won the World Series had manager Joe Torre not stumbled onto the formula of shutting the game down after the sixth inning by going to the devastating combination of Rivera and John Wetteland from the seventh inning on.

Despite the end result of the game being O-V-E-R after the sixth inning, would they have clung to this belief that every pitcher must fall into their faulty template?

The Yankees can have that same formula now.

They can have destruction at the back end of the game with Chamberlain and Rivera if they finally choose to end this self-serving charade of "Joba As Starter".

Speculation continues.

Who's going to "win" the fifth starter's job?

The club is being obnoxious, hard-headed and obstinate with this "competition"; and the way it's looking, there still seems to be a possibility----however small----that they're going to start Chamberlain.

It's enooooouuggggghhhhhh!!!!!

Hughes is a starter.

Chamberlain is a reliever.

Accept it and move on. Please.

• "The Most Hated Man In Sports":

Mike Silva at NY Baseball Digest tweeted the following regarding yours truly yesterday:

You might be the most hated man in sports!!

I'm not quite sure what I did to earn the designation. Then again, I'm never sure what I've done rightly or wrongly. I just do things.

Considering the number of despised people in sports, it's a pretty impressive rise to the top for me. I must be doing something very, very right; or very, very wrong.

One of those.

One question: Does it make me dangerously disturbed that I take this as a compliment? And I am taking it as a compliment.

• Viewer Mail 3.23.2010:

Michael Fierman at MichaelFireman.net writes RE yesterday's posting and sabermetrics:

one of your best- here's a not too crazy analogy: you're like leonard bernstein circa 1970- a rationalist/tonalist fighting the world of atonality ( in your case sabremetricians) we all know how that tuned out in the end. almost everyone in the serious music world has returned to tonality.

i'm not a troglodyte who rails against stats and I know that you aren't either, but i DO get annoyed when I read that Mark Teixeira's UZR in worse than "league average" and by the same token last year Daniel Murphy played the 4th best D at 1st base- no knock on Murph-I like the kid, but i've seen him play. anyway-that's just an example. sometime when I look at the literally unbelievable formulas for some of these exotic statistics it really infuriates me in an "emperor's new clothes" sort of way.

Much like the above-mentioned Chamberlain comparison to a 1996 Rivera, it's as if they're so desperate to prove their point that they're willing to ruin careers or use players in roles for which they're not suited.

The pitch/innings-counts; denigration of players who don't fit the ideal facilitated by numbers with objective analysis ignored; and the refusal to acknowledge anything other than what pops out of their mathematical equations is not adding to the game, but twisting it into something unnatural.

Many of those who are so invested in stats that they can no longer see reality are well-meaning; they're not trying to put forth an agenda. I actually respect those that believe so fervently in the value of numbers above all else and do so not because of an attempt to bolster themselves or their friends; I don't agree with them; and I'm here to destroy them, but it's nothing personal. If they listened, maybe a few can be converted to what's true.

Jeff (Street Boss) at Red State Blue State writes RE Joe Mauer:

Good call on Mauer. Your reasoning made it hard to believe he'd be anything but a Twin in 2011.

And the Olney-Pujols-Howard mess STILL has me seething.

Whether he knew it or not (most likely he did) Olney's actions caused great concern among Cardinals and Phillies fans.

I'm still waiting for his apology.

Apology? Hahahaha!!!!!

Of course he knew what kind of explosion this would create. That was the point.

I think it's probably better that the "story" was so adamantly denied by all parties and Buster Olney was made to look like such a foolish hack. It had no basis in reality; no one other than his mystical "sources" seemed to know anything about it and it took another chunk out of the nearly non-existent credibility at ESPN. In the long run, it'll be a positive that they want this to go away.

Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes RE the McCourts of Los Angeles by way of Boston:

As an aside from "Mauer is not a money whore," I agree that the McCourts did a good job with the Dodgers - before their personal issues got in the way. Such a shame if the divorce is what's keeping Torre from signing a contract extension, though he denies it.

I'm guessing Joe Torre is secure in his own resume and personality controlling the clubhouse (along with good cop, Don Mattingly; and bad cop, Larry Bowa) so that he's not a lame duck. He'll have a job as Dodgers manager as long as he wants it and the distraction from the negotiations for an extension was only adding to the mess that is the McCourts' divorce.

Unless the Dodgers win the World Series this year, Torre will at least manage another year and will continue to do so as long as he feels good and is enjoying it.

Agendas, Laziness, Hypocrisy And Lies

• Joe Mauer was never leaving the Twins----ever:

Joe Mauer has agreed to an 8-year, $184 million contract to stay with the Minnesota Twins.

Despite speculation to the contrary, Mauer was never, ever going to leave the Twins.

The Twins were never going to let him leave.

Let's take a look at the reasons why.

The ties that bind:

It would've been understandable that the idea of a Mauer trade was floated had there ever been any chance at all of the player leaving or the club deciding that they could no longer keep him. But the relationship between player, team and city ware so intertwined that there was never, ever, ever any way he was going to be allowed to depart; nor were they going to take the public relations hit if he were dealt away.

Joe Mauer is from Minnesota; he's a hometown hero who has blossomed into the best hitter in baseball this side of Albert Pujols. He's a Gold Glove catcher. And he's a Twin.

The first pick in the 2001 draft, the Twins were ridiculed for taking a high school player who was at least four years away from the big leagues; for bypassing Mark Prior, who was poised, polished and close to big league ready; for putting locale and popularity ahead of what was best for the club.

How's that decision look now as Mauer has developed into a Hall of Famer and quite possibly the best all-around catcher in the history of the game and Mark Prior's career is over?

Has anyone who scoffed at the notion that the Twins might've been putting the organization first by taking Mauer retracted their knee-jerk reaction of stupidity?

Or, like everything else that's said based on nothing more that what's convenient at the time within the flexible reality of the armchair experts, has it been pushed off to the side so no one remembers?

There were too many connections; too much at stake for both sides for Mauer to be allowed to leave. It was never going to happen.

Mauer is not a money whore; and his agent is Ron Shapiro:

How much money could Mauer have gotten had he gone out on the open market?

A handsome, stand-up guy who wins Gold Gloves behind the plate and bats .360? A player who's in his prime and getting better at age 27? With the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Angels, Dodgers and White Sox likely to be lurking, waiting and watching to see what happens and if he becomes available?

Even in a sluggish economy, we're talking about $250 million----at least.

Could Mauer have extracted more than the $184 million from the Twins by being a hardliner? By using his pending free agency as a hammer? By going to the media and pressuring a club that he knew couldn't let him leave with a young team and a new ballpark?

Absolutely.

Is he that kind of person?

Obviously not.

All you need to do when assessing the "greed factor" of a player is look at his representation. If the name Scott Boras is listed under "agent", you know where the player stands in terms of desired financial remuneration.

If you see the name Ron Shapiro, you also know where the player stands.

This is not to denigrate a player for wanting to extract every single penny he can possibly accrue from an interested club. This is America. The skills of a player the caliber of Alex Rodriguez; of Mark Teixeira; of Carlos Beltran predicate what he can legitimately request from any team that wants him during the course of free agency.

Of course, when a player signs on the dotted line with Boras, he's running the risk of the near disaster that was the ARod opt-out from his contract as he almost shut himself out from the Yankees during the 2007 World Series; of teams who don't put up with the Boras style of doing business walking away entirely; of playing in a venue where he really didn't want to play (as ARod did with the Rangers).

Ron Shapiro doesn't do business that way.

Shapiro's first priority for his players is where said player wants to play. Before anything else, that's one of the most important factors in his negotiations. Don't think for a second that Shapiro won't play hardball if he has to and use the possibility of a player leaving to his advantage, but the comfort and security of his client is paramount and unassailable. There's no attempt to demolish a club's existing salary structure or win some non-existent contest of wills to be known throughout the land as the epitome of evil amongst player agents.

Mauer is not a money-whore.

Shapiro doesn't represent money-whores.

Is Mauer going to buy that much more stuff with an extra $70 million and withstand the casting out from his home that would've been his lot in life if he'd left for greener pastures (and by greener, I mean money)? He'd never have been able to return to Minnesota again; and he didn't want to leave in the first place.

In a trade, the circumstances were prohibitive and the Twins would never have gotten equal value:

Let's say hypothetically the Twins or Mauer had broken off negotiations and things got to the point that the club decided to field offers for the superstar catcher in a trade. What could they have gotten for him in July had that happened?

Would any of the big market clubs give up the five prospects that it would take to get Mauer and then put themselves in an even more precarious position than the Twins were while the negotiations were taking place? Let's just say the Yankees and Red Sox got into a bidding war for Mauer; and let's say that the winner of the bidding war gutted their farm system to get Mauer. They'd have no choice but to pay him whatever he wanted to stay. They'd have to ante up their best prospects and then essentially sign Mauer as a free agent.

Given the way both teams now do business, was that going to happen? Seriously?

Trust me when I tell you that once Mauer was out of his hometown and wearing the colors of another club, the discount sign for the home club would've been gone. Whoever was ready to pay the cash was going to get the player.

So were the Yankees going to add another $200 million player to the roster? While they have Teixeira, ARod and C.C. Sabathia on their payroll and need to sign both Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera after this year?

Were the Red Sox going to pay that amount of cash with the way they're constantly trying to cast themselves as financially sane while existing in the same financial stratosphere as the Yankees?

It wasn't going to happen because it couldn't happen.

What of the Twins?

Let's say the negotiations became heated and so contentious that they ended and the club decided they had no choice but to trade him. A blunted public relations hit due to outrageous demands still wouldn't let the Twins get equal value for him. Because of the economy and Mauer's pending free agency, the Twins would've found themselves in a similar circumstance as they were with Johan Santana.

Despite the club winning and maintaining their annual success without Santana, that trade was a disaster. Left with no options after the Yankees and Red Sox withdrew, the Twins were left with whatever crumbs Mets GM Omar Minaya was willing to surrender. Take a look at the return on that deal:

Carlos Gomez----supremely talented and wild showing no signs of maturing; an excellent defensive outfielder with no plate discipline whatsoever and subsequently traded to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy.

Philip Humber----a right-handed pitcher and former first round draft pick with average (at best) stuff and stagnating in the minor leagues; Humber was released by the Twins and is now with the Kansas City Royals.

Deolis Guerra----a 21-year-old right-handed pitcher with weak numbers and currently in the minor leagues for the Twins.

Kevin Mulvey----a 25-year-old right-handed pitcher with mediocre minor league numbers who was traded to the Diamondbacks for Jon Rauch.

In other words, the Twins have wound up with Jon Rauch, J.J. Hardy and a minor league right-handed pitcher for a 2-time American League Cy Young Award winner, Johan Santana; and that's two years after the fact of the trade.

Because it would've been a mid-season deal, the Twins would likely have gotten less for Mauer than they got for Santana. Regardless of the perception as to whose fault it was that the negotiations fell apart to that point, no one in the trade would've won. The Twins would've gotten pennies on the dollar for a homegrown superstar; the trading club would've either gutted their system and/or spent $250 million; and Mauer would've looked like a money-grubbing mercenary.

It....was...never...going...to...happen.

• The absurdity of the media:

Is there anyone out there with a shred of integrity? Anyone who can be honest and speak the truth? Or at least stands by their beliefs even if proven wrong? Who doesn't adjust their shape like an amoeba to fit into whatever inextricable maze their ineptitude places them?

It's all about agendas; laziness; hypocrisy and lies.

Because there's such a divergent series of camps in baseball today, there's never any accurate and aboveboard series of reporting. It's about defending one's territory and it's blatant and embarrassing.

How else do you explain the likes of Mike Francesa going on-and-on with rampant egomania and all-knowing foresight with his mantras the likes of "'da Mets hafta break up 'da core" not because it made sense; not because it was presented in a line-by-line, coherent case, but to drum up attention for himself with controversy. Or the self-serving way he "thinks" things are going to happen not based on reality, but because he made a prediction earlier and wants to be able to crow about being right? Or his "forgetting" prior statements because admitting a mistake would sabotage the omnipotence inherent with being such a brilliant sports mind.

The stat zombies do the same thing. When you read a Dave Cameron or Rob Neyer put forth the bi-monthly defense of Paul DePodesta as a baseball executive, you have to read between the lines. In a recent posting, Neyer unloaded on Jamie McCourt's incompetence as a baseball executive based on a speech he heard her give at MIT.

I'm not about to sit here and defend the McCourt circus that's currently being played out in the courts and media; there's a certain Beverly Hillbillies aspect to the way they sauntered into town and took over the historic franchise known as the Los Angeles Dodgers. But if you examine the way the club has been run on the field since they took over, what's there to argue with?

Aside from this past winter (and due to embarrassing, though understandable circumstances with the divorce) the Dodgers have spent lavishly on players; they paid for the most recognizable manager in Joe Torre; they've been aggressive in trades; and they've made the playoffs in three of the past four years. Even with the lack of movement this winter, they're still legitimate contenders. Ignoring the vitriol directed at the owners, what possible reason is there to criticize aside from casting blame on someone other than DePodesta for what happened when he wrecked the team in 20 months between early 2004 and late 2005?

How hard is it to admit a fellow believer made a mistake? If any of the DePodesta defenders had the courage to break from their crowd of stat zombies and say something to the tune of: "he's my friend; I believe what he believes in terms of running a club; but he screwed up terribly when he got the big job", they'd have a chance to garner some credibility.

But they don't. They push him for jobs; reference his bonafides; and turn themselves into pretzels offering caveats for his multitude of inexcusable errors. Blame the McCourts. It's easy and it's fun.

How about the "insiders" like Buster Olney and Ken Rosenthal?

Lazy and clueless; unable to find things to write about so speculating while leaving room to adjust their feelings based on whatever time of day it is, they contradict themselves numerous times in the Joe Morgan fashion while maintaining the veneer of entities with contacts and insider information.

Now that Mauer's signed, because they didn't go out on any kind of a limb (that was never really a limb at all because he was never leaving the Twins to start with), they can "report" on what happened while promulgating the myth that they were on target with their stories from the start.

One day it was the negotiations were gaining momentum; next they were at an impasse; then there was the chance that a deal was never going to get done at all; then the trade ideas were floated complete with the wishy-washy and self-protecting, "I think a deal with the Twins will still get done".

Which is it?

We've seen Olney's degeneration from respected reporter for the New York Times to an ESPN joke. If the Mauer silliness didn't convince you of this fact, the ridiculous "story" that the Phillies wanted to trade Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols----presented as if it had basis in reality and clung to despite denials from all involved----should clarify the viability of these sources that may or may not exist; may or may not be in a position to say such things.

The connections in the game of telephone that are these faux rumors never ends. After the Howard-Pujols garbage blew up, the ESPN machine went into overdrive with Olney a guest on one of the updates and the hostess reporting the rumor as fact and asking (I'm paraphrasing), "So, Buster, how close is this to happening?"

Olney went on about the reasons for the idea; the logic behind it; and how it wasn't close to happening.

How close is it to happening?!?!

It might've behooved those that were wondering how "close" this was to happening to inform the Cardinals of this deal since they didn't appear to know about it. The Cardinals being informed about the proposition would have facilitated a deal faster than nonsensical speculation that could well have come from Olney's dog instead of an actual person.

If you needed to understand the floating nature of these stories; of the way things are twisted and turned and altered into something based not in reality, but in the alternate world that exists only at the stroke of a key because there's no honesty; no truth; no guts to say what needs to be said regardless of public perception, the Mauer mess is indicative of the hand-in-hand nature of what these so-called reporters and analysts say today.

They can write what they want; cite the sources they choose; change or forget their statements based on whatever their endgame happens to be. But know the truth----the truth that they're not giving information of putting themselves on the line with cold reality, ruthlessness and well-thought-out beliefs. They're fulfilling a corporate and selfish series of lies for their own ends.

It's never going to end unless that's realized, accepted and rejected.

And even then, it might never stop; but at least it won't be hidden. It won't be a myth put out as truth to those that are still willing to read and accept it. Then we'll be able to rebuild.

Sunday Lightning 3.21.2010

• The Stephen Strasburg debate:

Much like the questions surrounding how much money the Washington Nationals should have committed to star-in-waiting, über prospect Stephen Strasburg when he was drafted, the newest debate with the young pitcher is whether or not to let him jump straight into the big league fire with barely any professional seasoning.

I'm not of the Rick Peterson school in thinking that a pitcher must have a certain number of minor league innings to best prepare him for the big leagues; a cookie-cutter system in any endeavor disregards individuality both personally and professionally. Nor am I in the camp of prescribing a number of innings for pitchers and adhering to them no matter what; such a strategy leads to the way the Yankees have come precariously close to the edge of ruining Joba Chamberlain.

When a pitcher's ready, he's ready; and if a pitching coach and manager are incapable of watching said pitcher's mechanics and knowing whether or not he's altering them slightly due to fatigue and not to push him any further in a game regardless of him having thrown 80 or 110 pitches, then perhaps they shouldn't be in those positions of power, entrusted with the organization's most valuable assets to begin with.

After talk that Strasburg might make the Nationals out of spring training if he was judged "ready", the club sent him to Double A. Strasburg was impressive in the spring with 1 walk; 12 strikeouts; 8 hits allowed; and an ERA of 2.00 in 9 innings.

Could the Nationals keep him in the majors and not hinder his development?

Is it possible that he really is ready for the majors now?

Yes.

Is it worth it to run that risk?

No.

Stephen Strasburg has not thrown one regular season minor league pitch. He's 21-years-old and the Nationals are going to be atrocious. They've invested a ton of money in him and his success or failure will define the organization for the next ten years. There's no earthly reason----aside from selling extra tickets and garnering attention to a last place team----to keep him in the majors when it's smarter and safer to let him hone his craft in the diminished pressure of Double A.

Because he's so gifted, Strasburg would probably hold his own in the big leagues now; but why? Why gamble on such a talent? Even though he's armed with a fastball that comes along once every generation and a wicked curveball, that doesn't mean he's mentally polished enough to step right into the spotlight and function as a freakshow for a team that's going to be terrible.

I said months ago that I'd send Strasburg to Double A to start the season; let him pitch; get acclimated to professional baseball; then see what happens as he moves along. The biggest obstacle for Strasburg will probably be mentally preparing himself for the distractions that come from being such a household name and borderline legend before he starts his career.

Double A is now where the real prospects are housed. Strasburg will likely dominate the young hitters, who themselves are still learning to play; it's Double A where the prospects are separated from the journeymen/organizational filler.

If he pitches well into the summer, then send him to Triple A and let him deal with the veteran players who are interchangeable with the 24th and 25th men on every big league roster. Triple A is a warehouse for veteran insurance, mostly with everyday players who have big league experience. Their discipline will be better; they won't be starstruck by Strasburg; and they'll actually be focusing with greater intensity to get to Strasburg and draw attention to themselves.

This is the right thing to do for his development.

I'm not a fan of players----especially pitchers----"learning" in the big leagues. It's not the physicality that's the issue; it's the ancillary parts----mental and emotional----that have sabotaged many a player and ruined them.

When you hear people like Keith Law, who have such a wooden view of players that you have to wonder if they even have a concept of what it takes to be a big leaguer aside from regurgitated scouting terminology that he endlessly parrots. Law appears to suggest that it makes financial sense for Strasburg to be in the minors, but he's ready for the big leagues now. Here's the clip about his on-field readiness:

Getting him to the majors sooner would accelerate his development for future years, since he has very little to work on in the minors -- "slowing his delivery from the stretch" is a new one for me -- and what he does need to improve is only going to improve in the big leagues.

The Nationals don't have to give a reason for demoting him. If it were me, I'd say: "I'm sending him down because I'm sending him down." Their responsibility is to the organization and the player, not the media and armchair experts.

There's such a thing as shellshock and if Strasburg, who's known nothing but success on his way up, gets rocked repeatedly, his development will be hindered, not accelerated. What people like Law are evidently incapable of understanding is that the mental part of the game is far more important to such a prospect than his talent. Someone like Strasburg might be more inclined for self-doubt and questioning of his ability than a player who's had adversity and fewer natural gifts.

The most talented among us are sometimes the most insecure. If he's in the majors and struggles while pitching for a rotten team, who does that help?

It makes no sense for Strasburg to pitch in the majors now. It won't hurt him or the Nats to let him pitch in Double and Triple A, then if he shows the physical and mental maturity for a late season promotion, bring him to the big leagues. For right now, putting such a burden on a 21-year-old pitcher is a recipe for disaster.

The Nationals are doing the right thing in playing it cautious and it's not going to damage the pitcher to spend some time in the minors. It's the smart move.

• This looks familiar....

I like Bill Madden as a columnist, but someone said the following already about Rangers manager Ron Washington. This is from today's column in the NY Daily News:

In spite of his heart-felt apology, it would seem he's still got a lot of explaining to do. I mean are we really supposed to believe, as Washington implies, that this was a one-time deal by a 57-year-old man? And, if so, where and how did it happen and what possibly possessed him to put his career on the line (literally) like that? Clearly, something's amiss in Washington's life to engage in such a reckless manner. Perhaps if he were a player it might be a little more understandable – and easier to grant a second chance. But Washington is a manager – and therefore a role model. And not only a manager, but one whose best player, Josh Hamilton, is a recovering drug addict.

I must have heard this somewhere before.

Oh. Yeah. It was the voices in the vast expanse of my head and exploded out through my fingertips and hit the mark with laser precise accuracy.

• Kerry Wood out for 6-8 weeks:

Indians closer Kerry Wood has a back strain and could miss the first two months of the season.

In the grand scheme of things, the only negative about this is that the Indians are going to have to wait for Wood to show himself to be healthy enough to get something for him in a trade at mid-season.Realistically, it's not a negative. It's a positive.

The Indians are going to be 100-loss bad, so they're not going to have many games for Wood to close; he's got an option in his contract for 2011 at $11 million that kicks in with 55 appearances. The injury pretty much demolishes that possibility which, if he's pitching well when he gets back, will make him more attractive to a contending team looking for some bullpen help. The return will be greater in a trade due to the non-guarantee for anything past this year.

It's not unseemly to take such an occurrence like an on-field injury (as long as the player is not damaged long term) as a positive. Years ago, the Mets got a bolt from the sky when Mo Vaughn's knee ended his career and they were able to get rid of a clubhouse distraction; a financial albatross; and a declining player while collecting the insurance money for a contract that was more bloated than Vaughn himself.

Teams can say all the right things, but we all know the sigh of relief that emanates from their lips as the decisions are made for them and it's saving them multiple millions.

• Viewer Mail 3.21.2010:

Gabriel (Capo) writes RE the Cardinals and the Blue Jays:

I think the Cardinals are in a little better shape than that, they have a better lineup than the Mariners and Brad Penny will eat innings and win around 12 games at least.

On another concern, what do you think of Dustin McGowan? Seems like he's been hurt forever, and maybe it's time to call it a career. Whenever he feels ready, he's shut down due to soreness, fatigue or pain. I don't think it's realistic for the Blue Jays to count on him anymore.

I think Penny's going to have a good year for Dave Duncan as well; and if Kyle Lohse shows his form from 2008, they'll be okay; but if they want to contend for a title, they need Chris Carpenter. Period.

I haven't seen McGowan pitch this spring, but he's only 28; it's a little early for him or the Blue Jays to bag it. He had got great stuff and after what happened when they dumped Carpenter, I'd think they'll be more willing to give McGowan a chance to recover.

That said, we regularly hear the stories of pitchers coming back better than ever due to the new techniques that weren't available 30 years ago to repair what was seen as a career-ending injury. Orel Hershiser came back from shoulder surgery; and Tommy John surgery is almost a guaranteed success now; but there are sometimes pitchers who can't make it back.

I'm thinking of former White Sox and Marlins pitcher Alex Fernandez. Fernandez blew out his shoulder as the 1997 Marlins were making their World Series run, had surgery and came back to pitch serviceably in 1999, but repeated injuries to the same shoulder ended his career in 2000.

It's too soon to think this is anything more than "dead arm" and a slight setback for a pitcher returning for a shoulder reconstruction; but it's not something to dismiss entirely as a part of the recovery process. McGowan needs time to regain his footing. Dumping him now or having the pitcher give up entirely would be a mistake.

2010 Stories To Watch, Part IX

• I'm churning 'em out:

Combine the prolific frequency of Stephen King with the pomposity, pretentiousness and pablum of Jonathan Franzen and you get the PAULLEBOWITZ.COM 2010 Stories To Watch!

Until the season starts, this...will...not...end.

Cliff (Stone Cold Killer) Lee's injuries:

Despite morphing into a ruthless and brutally efficient assassin in the past year, Cliff (Stone Cold Killer) Lee is not indestructible.

In the latest injury for Lee (diagnosed immediately following his 5-game suspension for throwing at the Diamondbacks' Chris Snyder), the Mariners ace 1A will miss at least a week with an abdominal strain. On the injury note, this is after Lee underwent surgery right before spring training for a bone spur on his left foot.

The abdominal injury is a bigger concern for Lee than is being suggested by the Mariners; he's had similar problems in prior years with the Indians. In 2003 and 2004, Lee missed substantial time with abdominal injuries, so it's not something to dismiss as "minor" and it could be a big problem for a somewhat short-handed team that's relying on their two aces (Lee and Felix Hernandez) at the top of the rotation to keep them in contention in a very rough division.

Almost identically to the Diamondbacks of 2009, if the Mariners lose either Lee or Hernandez, they're not going to contend because the rest of the team is a series of questions.*

*Speaking of which, Milton Bradley got ejected for the second time in three days for arguing a called third strike immediately after I wrote that the ticking time bomb that is Milton Bradley was one of the keys to the Mariners season.

Some are floating the idea that Jarrod Washburn might be a worthwhile signing for the Mariners as insurance.

Yah. Right. He's a step above....Jason Vargas!!!!

Teams built in such a way must have health from their stars; and if they don't have it, things can spiral very, very quickly.

The Cardinals are in the same situation as the Mariners----almost:

The Cardinals are another club that's top-heavy with stars and reliant on cogs to fill out the roster. Through no fault of their own, they were dealing with the silliness that is the Buster Olney report that the Phillies wanted to trade Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols. Then yesterday, Chris Carpenter got shelled by the Marlins for six runs and seven hits in the first inning.

Spring training results aren't the issue for a pitcher of Carpenter's caliber----they're meaningless; but with Carpenter's extensive injury rap sheet, there's always a sideways gaze cast on him with every move; and it's not as if there's one body part that keeps breaking down. His entire body is always at risk of a pull, strain, tear or tweak. Even in the weak NL Central and the genius of Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan, the Cardinals will be left scrambling if they lose Carpenter for any amount of time.

As stunning as it was that Carpenter was able to return to form and pitch masterfully last season after another injury (to his oblique) sent him to the disabled list early on, it was indicative of Carpenter that he was: A) almost unhittable; and B) hurt.

These issues have been the hallmark of Carpenter's career. With the Blue Jays, he was overused by then manager Carlos Tosca, got injured and was released. (Nice move from J.P. Ricciardi.) He rehabbed with the Cardinals, cleaned up his motion with Duncan and won a Cy Young Award while finishing 2nd and 3rd in the voting in two other seasons. He also missed almost the entire 2007 and 2008 seasons with injuries.

The Cardinals need Carpenter and they need him healthy. The outing wasn't a concern; the potential for another catastrophic injury is.

The Mets youngsters:

I said it before and I'll say it again: suddenly the Mets farm system isn't looking so bad.

The brilliant play of Fernando Martinez; Ruben Tejada; Ike Davis; and Jenrry Mejia has opened eyes around baseball. Undoubtedly the predators who think the Mets are saddled with the in-bred stupidity of a creature from Texas Chainsaw Massacre are waiting to pounce and try to trade for the whole system for a veteran player in a futile attempt to win now.

I'm not prepared to say the Mets won't do something stupid, but they've been resistant so far. These are the Mets we're talking about, paragons of self-sabotage that they are, there's always a chance of doing something disastrous.

I believe they've learned their lesson, but we'll see.

There are two situations that bear close watching----20-year-olds (born within three weeks of each other in 1989) right-handed pitcher Jenrry Mejia; and shortstop Ruben Tejada.

People (including manager Jerry Manuel) are proposing that Mejia be kept in the big leagues as reliever; and they're also saying (again, manager Manuel) that Tejada is going to be in the minors so he can play every day.

Having looked at both and the Mets current circumstances, they've got it backwards.

I don't care how good Mejia looks. If I were running things, Mejia is in the minors as a starting pitcher going every fifth day with an eye on him joining the club late in the season as a weapon out of the bullpen for the stretch run a la Francisco Rodriguez with the Angels in 2002 and Joba Chamberlain with the Yankees in 2007. Mejia needs to pitch without pressure; he needs to hone his command. He's not quite ready regardless of how great he's looked in the spring.

As for Tejada, the Mets have a dilemma that's not really a dilemma if they really think about it. They have no idea when Jose Reyes is going to be able to play. By now, it's almost assured that he's going to miss opening day and the club is adamant (with some wiggle room) that if Reyes is out, veteran Alex Cora will play shortstop in his stead.

I'd roll the dice on Tejada., let him play to start the season and hope he's able to handle the pitching. He's far superior defensively to Cora; has handled himself with maturity in the spring; and his youthful energy will be infectious to the club and fans. Sometimes these injuries are fortuitous. If Tejada plays well until Reyes's return, there's always the option of shifting him to second base in front of Luis Castillo.

Giving Tejada a chance for a couple of weeks in April and sending him down if he's truly overmatched won't hurt him; but I don't think he would be and, as admirable as Cora is as a player, how much worse can Tejada be as a hitter even if he struggles?

The move could be a sparkplug for the Mets that they never anticipated. It happens sometimes and it's worth the shot to see what they have.

• Viewer Mail 3.20.2010:

Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes RE Ron Washington:

I think the Washington case is interesting. Most of the substance abuse headlines have involved players, so this is sort of new territory. Backman was fired immediately, but domestic abuse isn't a victim-less crime. I honestly don't know what to think, although I'm inclined to agree that they should send him packing.

I don't know what the holdup is unless there's more to this story that the Rangers want to keep hidden; but if that's the case, I'd think they'd rather get it out there, let the bomb go off and conduct one big cleanup rather than have a series of moderate explosions of varying frequency and devastation pop up intermittently for the club to spin their way out as they happen. If there's an incurable infection, you cut it out. This won't end until Washington's gone.

John Seal (West Coast Spiritual Adviser) writes RE the Athletics:

Alas, the A's immediately released Jay Marshall. Perhaps he'll resign with them...or settle for a minor league deal with the Mets once his shoulder recovers.

I have it on good authority he suffered the injury whilst arm-wrestling with Brad Ziegler.

I'd think someone would sign a side-arming lefty no matter how bad he's been in his big league chances. Tony Fossas and Mike Myers lasted forever due to the good fortune of being born left-handed.

Arm wrestling?

Is that allowed under the Billy Beane dictatorship under terms of permissible inmate activity?

And where was Bob Geren during all this? Refereeing?

Then again, who is one such as I to question the judgement of a GENIUS!!!!

It's Not The Crime, It's The Coverup

• Ron Washington must be fired, day 2:

How many times has it been said, in sports as well as politics, that it's not the crime itself that cements the downfall of the participants, but the subsequent cover-up?

We see it again and again, in an attempt to avoid the fallout in the immediate aftermath of the incident, lies are told; payouts are made; greater embarrassments are fostered and the end result is exponentially worse that if it had been nipped in the bud and handled immediately.

No matter how painful it is, it's far better to cut the cord sooner rather than later.

In case you expected the Ron Washington mess to stand on its own after the initial blast, comes the story----denied by the Rangers----that the failed drug test led to the club being blackmailed----Yahoo.com Story.

Who knows whether or not the blackmail allegation is accurate?

Are the Rangers still indulging in spin to try and keep this at bay and hope it recedes into the background?

Have their own short-sighted activities dragged the Rangers front office into the morass built by Washington's stupidity?

Does it matter?

Unless they cut the ties and sacrifice the manager for the good of the organization this...is...not...going...away.

It's unconscionable, irresponsible and outright stupid if the club let the fact that they were in contention and didn't want to upset the applecart by firing Washington cloud their judgment and allow themselves to be neck deep in what should've been a cut-and-dried case of an employee doing something to cost himself a job.

It all could've been avoided had they accepted Washington's offer of resignation when news of the failed drug test came to the Rangers; they could've fired him and given a reason to protect him if they so chose. There are a million of them and many would be valid.

"His strategic mistakes were too egregious to ignore."

"Despite out record, we felt a change needed to be made to contend for a playoff spot now."

"We wanted to make a change and now was the time."

Or, there's the old indistinct and convenient excuse: "It was a lack of communication."

They could've fired Washington then or let him resign.

Instead, they took this path hoping it would go away (and that's regardless of the accuracy of the blackmail story----one way or the other, the failed drug test was going to be revealed eventually). Now, they're paying the price as a young, up-and-coming team bursting with talent, built the right way is under siege because of the naked betrayal of principles upon which the club president Nolan Ryan has based him life and career.

A conservative, hard-liner and vicious competitor, Ryan probably knew back then that Washington had to go. For some reason, he was allowed to stay on. Now, they're trapped in the muck with their manager and are paying the price.

The only way to properly make this disappear is to make the manager disappear. It's nothing personal; it's not because of any moral judgments due to drug use; it's not because of an agenda; it's because it's what's right for the organization.

Had this been a player who failed a drug test for using a recreational substance like cocaine, it'd be received with a "what can you do?" shrug. That Washington admitted using amphetamines and marijuana as a player is irrelevant to me. Believe if you will that Washington's cocaine use began and ended with the failed drug test----if true, that's some inconvenient luck that they tested him right there and then!!!----but he's not just a distraction to the Rangers, he was a hindrance before because he's a rotten strategic manager! They have every right to fire him for that reason alone. Now? How can they keep him?

How?

It's March and the Rangers promising season is bearing the earmarks of going up in flames because of a scandal. There comes a time to take a step back, assess and determine where things are and what the risk/reward of keeping that which has become a liability.

They're postponing the inevitable with their reluctance to do what must be done.

And what must be done is to fire Ron Washington.

Immediately.

• Viewer Mail 3.19.2010:

Jeff (Street Boss) at Red State Blue State writes RE managerial scandals:

Wally.

Backman.

Boom.

For those of you who missed it, Wally Backman was hired to manage the Diamondbacks for the 2005 season when a DUI and domestic incident that he failed to disclose during the interview process led the club to fire him right after he'd been hired. It wasn't worth it to keep him; just as it's not worth it for the Rangers now to keep Washington.

The Brooklyn Trolley Blogger writes RE Ron Washington:

This is a tough one Prince. I think Nolan Ryan has had a dramatic impact on the Ranger organization for the better. That's why I'm inclined to trust his handling of the situation. If it weren't for him I'm sure I'd be thinking differently. No Doubt there have been managers I would have fired for less. For some reason I don't have a problem with the way the situation is playing itself out. Yet! For Nolan this is like buying into a Junk Bond; High risk; High reward. Let's see if it comes back to bite Nolan in the ass. I'm compartmentalizing and maybe this story broke out when I'm in an empathetic mood. I feel the heat you're generating though.

I'm not making any values judgments on Washington here; he wants to do coke, hey have a ball as long as it doesn't affect me; but this is turning into a nightmare for the club on the whole and has to be handled. And the only way to handle it is to get rid of Washington.

You've come to the wrong place for empathy though. I don't understand why he'd take this kind of risk and be so inexplicably stupid. Since this supposedly happened around mid-season, because they were hovering around first place and ten games or so above .500, they let the circumstances factor into the decision to keep Washington. Ryan and the club chose to ride it out and hope to make the playoffs. They couldn't easily explain away Washington's firing and left it to "later".

Well, they didn't make the playoffs and it's now "later".

I can tell you now, that if the club was under .500 when this was called to their attention, Washington would've been fired.

Larry writes RE your humble narrator (and if anyone gets that reference, I'll be summarily impressed):

"Plus, it makes me interesting"

Well I'm not sure I'd go that far...

Maybe fascinating would be a better word. Like something to watch and study to see what it's gonna do or say next.

John Seal (West Coast Spiritual Adviser) writes RE Ron Washington:

In all seriousness (for a change), good piece on Ron Washington. When I started reading it, I was definitely in the 'leave the man alone and let him do his job' school, but you make some excellent points. I still don't think people should lose their jobs over victimless crimes that occur off the clock, but considering the political context and potential for team disruption, your case is a strong one.

More importantly, though, do you think he was stoned when he named Scott Hatteberg 'Pickin' Machine'?

I understand he's a well-liked guy; I get that the players play hard for him. I've said it again-and-again that regardless of his strategic mishaps, that the players knew he was about to get fired and still turned things around in 2008 to save his job is not something to ignore. But this can't be saved. It just can't be.

I agree with the premise of an individual not losing his job based on a personal issue----as long as it doesn't affect his ability to do the job. And, like Tim Johnson with the Blue Jays, Washington's credibility is shot not just because of the failed test, but because he had the audacity to claim that it was the one and only time he did it.

I mean, please.

On another note, since you mention the Athletics, John, I have to remind you that lefty side-armer Jay Marshall was returned to the A's after the Mets discovered he was hurt. So lives your dream of seeing Marshall and righty side-armer Brad Ziegler forget which side of the bullpen mounds they need to be on when warming up together and locking arms in a humiliating incident befitting the prospects of the 2010 A's.

It's more likely to have that happen than to see the club contend.