New York Mets---Hot Stove Preview

• Winter Preview---- New York Mets:

While it's trendy and easy to attack the Mets after the 2009 catastrophe, things aren't that bad. A rapid turnaround is very, very possible.

What they need: A veteran, innings-gobbling starting pitcher; a low-cost serviceable starting pitcher; a power bat in left field; a first baseman; a starting catcher; a second baseman; bullpen help.

Free agents: 1B Carlos Delgado; RHP J.J. Putz; OF Gary Sheffield; INF Ramon Martinez; INF/OF Fernando Tatis; RHP Elmer Dessens

Delgado is going to be in demand as soon as he proves that he's healthy in winter ball. He'll have options to move to the American League and DH part-time; the Mets will be very interested in bringing him back on an incentive-laden deal. Delgado is a businessman first and foremost and while he'd come back to the Mets in the right deal, he's not going to let any implications of "duty" to give the Mets some payback after the lost season of 2009 affect his decision. I don't think he's coming back.

Putz has sounded agreeable to a return to the Mets as well, but he'll get offers to close elsewhere (Detroit? Houston?); he won't be back.

The Mets would bring in Milton Bradley or coax Bobby Bonilla and Tom Glavine out of retirement before they re-signed Sheffield.

Martinez has some use as a utility infielder and might be back.

The admirable and heartwarming story of Fernando Tatis is well-known by now. He came back to baseball in order to make money to build a church in the Dominican Republic; he won Comeback Player of the Year for the Mets in 2008, etc. It's a nice story....and it's over. It's time for the Mets to move on with a better jack-of-all-trades who's more of a hitting threat.

Dessens is a veteran who pitched admirably out of the bullpen in 2009. He'll be back.

Players available via trade: 2B Luis Castillo; LHP Oliver Perez; RHP Sean Green; RHP John Maine; 1B Daniel Murphy; OF Angel Pagan; RHP Bobby Parnell; RHP Mike Pelfrey

The Mets are going to move Castillo if they have to pick up half of the remaining $12 million on his contract. They might even take Milton Bradley to move him. Castillo actually had a good, productive year for the Mets in 2009, but they need a better bat at second base. Castillo's gone.

You want to be the next one in line to make the futile attempt to straighten out Oliver Perez and take the remaining $24 million he's owed? He's yours.

Green's new, sidearm motion makes him more agreeable to keep around. The production of relievers varies from year-to-year; that said, Green's arbitration eligible and will probably be moved.

Maine has 18-win potential, but his injuries and wildness are getting to be too much to take. He's arbitration-eligible and due a big raise, so they'll talk about him in a trade; but he's going to get another chance to blossom (or at least repeat his 15-win 2007) with the Mets.

The Mets would be well-served to "git while the gittin's good" and listen if someone wants Murphy as part of a package to get a bat or an arm. And if they think Murphy's an everyday first baseman as has been implied, it's going to be a long season in Flushing----again.

Pagan is a guy who every manager ends up wanting to strangle because he's so talented and is such a space cadet. Teams are pursuing him. He's 50/50 to be back with the Mets.

Parnell has a great power fastball, but if the Mets pull off a blockbuster, he's likely to go as part of the package.

I'd listen to offers on Pelfrey in a big deal for a proven starter or power bat or for a pitcher (Brandon Morrow) who's fallen out of favor with his club. Pelfrey's arbitration-eligible.

Non-tender candidates: RHP Sean Green; LHP Pat Misch; OF Jeremy Reed

I doubt they'll non-tender Green, but it's possible.

Misch showed enough as a long man/spot starter that I'd keep him around at the right price.

Reed's gone.

Players to pursue:

Via free agency: LHP Mike Gonzalez (Braves); RHP Rafael Soriano (Braves); 1B Adam LaRoche (Braves); LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); 1B Chad Tracy (Diamondbacks); RHP Danys Baez (Orioles); INF/OF Melvin Mora (Orioles); OF Jason Bay (Red Sox); RHP Octavio Dotel (White Sox); OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); INF/OF Jamey Carroll (Indians); LHP Joe Beimel (Rockies); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); RHP Fernando Rodney (Tigers); RHP Kiko Calero (Marlins); 1B Nick Johnson (Marlins); 1B/OF Ross Gload (Marlins); RHP Doug Brocail (Astros); RHP John Lackey (Angels); 2B Orlando Hudson (Dodgers); RHP Jon Garland (Dodgers); INF Orlando Cabrera (Twins); OF/1B Xavier Nady (Yankees); OF Hideki Matsui (Yankees); RHP Justin Duchscherer (Athletics); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); 1B Russell Branyan (Mariners); INF/OF Mark DeRosa (Cardinals); RHP Joel Piniero (Cardinals); RHP Russ Springer (Rays); C Bengie Molina (Giants)

I'd keep tabs on both Gonzalez and Soriano as set-up men, preferably Gonzalez. Teams appear reluctant to give up a first round pick for the useful Gonzalez and it's a mistake.

LaRoche is an underrated player all the way around and if the Braves vacillate, the Mets should strike.

There are the lower-cost relievers like Baez and/or Calero who could fall to the Mets; Brocail is a well-respected clubhouse presence, a fiery guy and he can still pitch a little.

I'd go heavily after Gload if I were the Mets. Carroll is in demand as a utility guy.

Would Cabrera move to second base for the Mets? His teams tend to wind up in the playoffs, so if Orlando Hudson goes elsewhere (this is all contingent on moving Castillo), it's not a bad idea.

I'd prefer Bay by a large margin over Matt Holliday, who I don't think is a good fit for the Mets.

The Mets are the heavy favorites to get Molina. He still handles pitchers well and has pop in his bat for the bottom of the lineup.

I feel relatively certain that they'll end up with Piniero and it's a good move on a reasonable deal.

Could Lackey fall to the Mets as Francisco Rodriguez did? Maybe.

Via trade: LF Carl Crawford (Rays); RHP Roy Halladay (Blue Jays); RHP Jeremy Accardo (Blue Jays); 1B/OF Luke Scott (Orioles); RHP Chris Ray (Orioles); OF Delmon Young (Twins); INF/OF Miguel Cabrera (Tigers); RHP Edwin Jackson (Tigers); 1B Paul Konerko (White Sox); OF David DeJesus (Royals); RHP Gil Meche (Royals); OF Juan Rivera (Angels); RHP Kevin Millwood (Rangers); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); 2B Dan Uggla (Marlins); OF Cody Ross (Marlins); 1B/3B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); RHP Matt Lindstrom (Marlins); OF Josh Willingham (Nationals); OF Milton Bradley (Cubs); OF Kosuke Fukudome (Cubs); OF Carlos Lee (Astros); C Ryan Doumit (Pirates); RHP Chris Young (Padres)

Do the Mets have the minor leaguers to get a mega-deal the likes of Crawford or Cabrera done? The consensus is no, especially for Crawford. For Cabrera, would taking his salary and giving up one top prospect and a couple of good ones be enough? Maybe.

I want Carlos Lee above both Bay and Holliday. The Astros have said he's not on the block, but I'd keep asking and let them know to let me know if they change their minds.

Meche can be had for a team that's willing to take his contract and if he's healthy, he'd win 15 games for the Mets. The same can be said for Millwood, but the Rangers aren't giving him away.

I'd check with the Mariners about a Pelfrey for Morrow swap. I think Morrow's better and he needs to get out of Seattle.

The Marlins have no qualms whatsoever about dealing within the division and I'd move Uggla to first base if I could get him.

They screwed up once in dealing Lindstrom for Jason Vargas. I'd get him back for the right price.

I've long been a fan of Willingham, but the Nationals aren't going to give him away for nothing. The Mets like him too and will keep tabs on that situation.

Milton Bradley in New York? I wouldn't do it, but if it gets Castillo's contract out of here, it's not something to dismiss out of hand if the Cubs made up the difference in the contracts of the two. I'd consider it and try to get assurances (for what they're worth) from Bradley that he'll behave. (Yah, right!)

Then we get to Roy Halladay.

The Mets do have the prospects to get him now if they're willing to gut the system. But it could go another way if they hold their fire.

The Halladay situation is almost creepy in its similarity to what happened with Johan Santana in 2007-2008. The very idea that the Mets were players in the negotiations was rightfully ridiculed at the outset. The Yankees and Red Sox were the front-runners and either/or was widely expected to get a deal done, but neither club appeared all that interested in giving up a chunk of their farm system and ostensibly sign Santana as a free agent after the fact.

The Twins, overplaying their hand, waited too long to trade Santana and as time passed, one team after another withdrew. Spring training approached and Santana----with a gentleman's agreement between himself and the Twins----wanted the situation handled before he reported. Faced with no other options, Twins GM Bill Smith took what the Mets offered in terms of players (essentially nothing at the time and absolutely nothing in retrospect) to get the situation behind them.

I'm convinced (and this will never be authenticated on the record by anyone) that both the Red Sox and Yankees let Mets GM Omar Minaya know through back channels that they weren't in on Santana and that he shouldn't give up any more than the bare minimum to get the deal done.

The Blue Jays are faced with this now concerning Halladay. And Roy Halladay is more aggravated at the Blue Jays than is being let on. They embarrassed him as they made public his quiet request to be traded at mid-season; then-GM J.P. Ricciardi botched the trade negotiations and Halladay was stuck in Toronto. He's already said he wants out before the spring and it's no "gentleman's agreement" between him and the Blue Jays; it's a "get me the hell outta here" demand. The longer it goes, the uglier it's going to get and the price for the pitcher is going to drop as the days pass.

Is it likely that the Blue Jays are going to make the same mistake the Twins did and leave the Mets as the last team standing that can: A) give them anything at all to get Halladay, and B) pay for the contract extension to keep him? No. But it was considered absurd that the Mets would get Santana, and look what happened.

For all his faults, mistakes and botching of the English language, backing someone as savvy as Minaya into a corner is a mistake because he comes out swinging with both fists.

• Echoes of Juan Pierre:

The Mariners are doling 4-years and $36 million for Chone Figgins?

That's not all.

The contract supposedly vests (details aren't available yet) so that it could be worth $45 million over 5-years.

The stat zombies are in love with Figgins for some reason, some going as far as saying he's as good a player as Jason Bay.

Yah.

Here are the objective, realistic, non-zombie facts on Chone Figgins:

He's a speed guy who's about to turn 32:

Players like Rickey Henderson and Lou Brock, who are able to maintain some semblance of their speed, don't come around very often. In fact, that's why both are in the Hall of Fame; that and because they could also hit the ball out of the park.

Is Figgins going to get faster as he ages? He's not a particularly great basestealer to begin with. He got caught stealing 17 times in his 59 attempts last year. Not good. Do the Mariners and the stat zombies think he's going to be stealing 40 bases (or even 30 bases) at age 35?

He has no power and strikes out too much:

Figgins is good for 3-6 homers a year.

At third base or left field.

Historical power positions.

He strikes out over 100 times a year.

With no power.

I'm not of the school that certain positions have to be manned by a player who hits the ball out of the park, but the Mariners don't currently have anyone who can be counted on to hit home runs. One would assume they're going to find a power bat somewhere at first base or left field, but the DH spot is clogged up by Ken Griffey Jr and his nonsensical and sentimental re-signing. Who's driving in the runs for the Mariners?

Small ball and defense are great, but the Mariners don't have the pitching to play that game and contend.

The zombies say he's "versatile":

Yeah?

So?

He can play left field, third base or second base. So what? Is that versatility worth that money with what his game provides?

To me, Figgins is a step above Juan Pierre. A slap hitter who can run. His on base ability will be mitigated by his penchant for getting caught stealing and that the Mariners don't have anyone to knock him in on a consistent basis.

This capricious signing from a GM, Jack Zduriencik, who's been a solid talent evaluator and pretty smart GM so far is a disaster in the making. This off-season, with the re-signing of Griffey and this stupid move, is off to a bad start for the Mariners. Really bad.

• That's right, Einstein. What tipped you off?

Has Billy Beane lost his mind?

For what possible reason would the Athletics offer 3-years and slightly more money than the Red Sox for Marco Scutaro?

To do what?

Are the A's contenders who need a plug-in here and there to take the next step? Because that's what Scutaro provides. He's not a difference-maker; he's a competent player who's complement to what a team like the Red Sox already have.

The A's have a load of young pitching, so they'll be competitive next year, but this revelation combined with the strange trade Beane made to get Jake Fox show a man who isn't simply human, despite his portrayal in Moneyball, but a man who's revealing himself to be relentlessly mediocre.

If the A's have a bad year next year, could Beane be in trouble? The blame game----it was said by way of alibi that owner Lewis Wolff spurred Beane to make the aggressive trade for Matt Holliday last year and to sign Jason Giambi----only goes so far. Eventually Beane is going to have to answer for his baseball-related crimes. And it could be happening before our very eyes.

The Teflon Billy persona is wearing thin.

Either the pressure's getting to him, or he was never that smart to begin with.

The truth is coming out day after day. And it's portending a bad ending for Billy Beane, Super Genius on a level with Wile E. Coyote.

Over the cliff he goes.

Atlanta Braves---Hot Stove Preview

• Winter Preview----Atlanta Braves:

The Braves might already be the best team in the National League; and they're one power bat away from being devastatingly good----World Series favorites good.

What they need: A power bat for first base/corner outfield/third base (if they shift Chipper Jones to another position); another productive bat.

Free agents: LF Garret Anderson; LHP Mike Gonzalez; 1B Adam LaRoche; RHP Rafael Soriano; OF/1B Greg Norton

Anderson can still help a team as a part-time player, but the Braves need a drastic upgrade in left field. He'll wind up back in the American League where he can DH part-time.

Gonzalez is one of the most sought-after free agents in baseball because he's lefty; racks up the strikeouts; and can close if necessary. The Braves have already replaced him and Rafael Soriano with Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito. (Getting Saito is a great move.)

Both Gonzalez and Soriano are gone. Gonzalez will probably get a 3-year deal somewhere early in the free agent period. Soriano might have to wait until February if he's looking for a better deal than he'll get now; teams that miss out on their primary targets will move onto the next tier of reliever, and that's Soriano.

LaRoche and the Braves belong together, but the club's waiting and addressing other needs before dealing with LaRoche. I think that's a mistake. If they wait too long, someone's going to jump in on LaRoche, who's highly underrated both offensively and defensively.

Norton might be back as a bat off the bench. A guy who batted .145 and still managed a .330 on base percentage has a home somewhere.

Players available via trade: OF Ryan Church; SS Yunel Escobar; INF/OF Kelly Johnson; RHP Kenshin Kawakami; RHP Derek Lowe; LHP Jo Jo Reyes; OF Jordan Schafer; RHP Javier Vazquez

It took about a month-and-a-half for the Braves to learn what the Mets did about Ryan Church----his numbers and his tools are misleading as to what type of player he is----and they benched him. He's a journeyman who brainlocks at inopportune times and while it was understandable that the Braves had grown so frustrated with Jeff Francoeur that they wanted him out of their sight and took what appeared to be a decent on-paper offer for him in Church, they're going to rue the day they made that trade.

GM Frank Wren has let personal feelings with players affect him and his job before (notably Cal Ripken Jr in Baltimore) and his feud with Francoeur led him to do something stupid. Church is arbitration-eligible and due a big raise from his $2.8 million salary and there'd be a chance of him getting non-tendered if they club didn't want to save face for that trade. As things are now, if they upgrade with a power bat for right field, Church might be part of the trade or they simply might move him for a low-level minor leaguer.

Escobar is a showboat and angered the Braves with his laziness and temper tantrums, but they'd be stupid to trade a talent like that unless a lot was coming back. I doubt he's going anywhere. He's got superstar skills.

Johnson has no position and had a rotten year at the plate. He's arbitration-eligible and might get non-tendered.

Of the three starters----Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami and Javier Vazquez----one's going to get dealt. Of the three, Kawakami's contract is the most palatable for someone to take (slightly over $13 million for 2010-2011) and he's a decent-enough back of the rotation starter.

Lowe's got $45 million guaranteed through 2012 and he's not going anywhere unless the Braves take a similar contract back or someone thinks his struggles over the second half of the season were a mere slump. The thing with Lowe that's ignored is that he could conceivably move back to the bullpen for the last few years of his career.

Vazquez had a great year and would bring the most back in a trade. Only due $11.5 million next year, I'd be amazed if they traded Vazquez.

Reyes is a soft-tossing, lefty journeyman. Plain and simple.

Schafer was the flavor of the month early in the season when he got off to a hot start, but it took very little time for the big league fastball to overmatch and lap him like a distance runner who's pulled up lame. He can be had in a trade.

Non-tender candidates: Aside from Johnson and the unlikely non-tendering of Church, I don't see anyone they'll let go for nothing.

Players to pursue:

Via free agency: OF Jason Bay (Red Sox); INF/OF Jamey Carroll (Indians); 1B/OF Ross Gload (Marlins); 1B Nick Johnson (Marlins); INF/OF Chone Figgins (Angels); OF Mike Cameron (Brewers); 1B Carlos Delgado (Mets); OF Johnny Damon (Yankees); OF Xavier Nady (Yankees); OF Randy Winn (Giants); OF Matt Holliday (Cardinals); OF Marlon Byrd (Rangers) OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox)

Unless the Braves can move Lowe's contract, they're not getting in on Bay or Holliday.

Damon might be a fit if he's unable to find the 4-year deal he wants. If his demands lower to 2-years the Yankees will keep him; but the Braves, if shutout in every other avenue, decide they want Damon, he could end up in Atlanta.

Figgins could move to left field (or they could conceivably shift Chipper Jones to first base----my suggestion----or back to the outfield) and Figgins would be a fit.

Cameron will have nothing to do with shifting to a corner outfield spot again after the disaster that was with the Mets, but he's a better defender in center than Nate McLouth, who could move to left or right. Winn is very underrated and wouldn't be that expensive in dollars or years; Dye is a popular former Brave who can still hit.

Delgado's a low-cost alternative for first base, Johnson is an injury-risk, but if they find a power bat for left (or third), he'd take a 2-year deal.

Gload's a good guy off the bench; and Nady's a roll of the dice with a big reward. Byrd's a cheap fill in if they get a basher to play first or third.

Via trade: OF J.D. Drew (Red Sox); 3B Mike Lowell (Red Sox); OF Carl Crawford (Rays); OF/1B Luke Scott (Orioles); OF/3B/1B Miguel Cabrera (Tigers); OF David DeJesus (Royals); OF Juan Rivera (Angels); OF Nelson Cruz (Rangers); OF Josh Hamilton (Rangers); 1B Jack Cust (Athletics); 2B Dan Uggla (Marlins); 3B/1B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); OF Cody Ross (Marlins); OF Josh Willingham (Nationals); OF/1B Adam Dunn (Nationals); OF Milton Bradley (Cubs); OF Carlos Lee (Astros); 3B Garrett Atkins (Rockies); 3B Mark Reynolds (Diamondbacks)

Many of these names are contract deals. There was talk of a Francoeur for Drew swap early in the summer before the Church trade. Drew had one of his best seasons with the Braves and is from Georgia. Would the Red Sox take Kawakami and Lowe for Drew and Lowell to get out from under the contracts and make a move on Matt Holliday or Miguel Cabrera? Maybe.

The Braves have the prospects to get anyone in baseball including Crawford and Cabrera. They're not giving up Jason Heyward for those players, but the Braves could get something done to get a power bat like Dunn or Reynolds if they're willing to move Chipper to another position. Would they take the shoddy defense of either or Jack Cust to get the power their bats provide?

Willingham is one of the most unsung power bats in baseball. I've always liked the way he hits and he's exactly the type of hitter that no one knows until he's holding up the trophy for NLCS/World Series MVP.

There are the risky names like Bradley and Hamilton. Why not call and ask? They could get them for pennies on the dollar and have a big payoff.

• The free agent/trade dominoes start to fall----some strangely:

Phillies sign Placido Polanco...for third base?

This is a weird thing to do considering the number of actual third basemen floating around and that Polanco's a second baseman.

The Phillies gave Polanco a 3-year, $18 million contract to shift to third. He can play the position of course, but wouldn't it have been better to sign Miguel Tejada to make the move? To trade for Mike Lowell, Garrett Atkins or Jhonny Peralta? Or to simply keep Pedro Feliz?

I don't understand this. Polanco's 34 and the Phillies have gotten older and probably not better. In a similar quick-strike, the Phillies grabbed Raul Ibanez early in the free agent process in what was called an overpayment for an older player; it looked to be a stroke of genius as Ibanez was one of the best players in baseball over the first half but faltered badly in the second half.

Was it the National League pitchers figuring Ibanez out?

Was it that he was worn down and nicked by injuries?

Was it that he's aging?

Was it a predictable decline?

Or was it a combination of all of the above?

I'd be worried about Ibanez; I'd be worried that the Phillies are getting old in their lineup; and I wouldn't have made this move for Polanco.

Red Sox sign Marco Scutaro:

If it were anything more than 2-years for Scutaro, I'd say no; but on a 2-year deal with Scutaro safely ensconced in what should be a top lineup? With the Green Monster to shoot at?

Absolutely.

He'll hit 15 homers for the Red Sox and play shortstop well enough and they're saved from the desperate proposed move of Dustin Pedroia to short. They still need a big time basher for the lineup, but this was a good deal to fill a hole rather than to shoot for the moon of Hanley Ramirez/Yunel Escobar/Jose Reyes/Jimmy Rollins to play short.

On another note, Scutaro----and in demand free agent----stooped to giving Red Sox officials a private workout before they agreed to a contract. If anything was a window into the sad state of affairs for free agents in today's market, it's that. When was the last time the clubs were in such a strong position to force a free agent coming off his career year to audition for them?

Cubs trade OF/3B/1B Jake Fox and INF Aaron Miles to the A's for RHP Jeff Gray, RHP Ronny Morla and OF/1B Matt Spencer:

Jake Fox's middle name is Quirin. Quirin?

Another odd move from A's GM Billy Beane. Fox is no kid (he's 27); he's put up big power numbers in the minors and he doesn't really have a position. The A's have a load of those guys and it really hasn't worked on the field in recent years. Michael Lewis's sequel to Moneyball may be on permanent hold along with the Moneyball movie.*

*MONEYBALL HASN'T WOOOOOOOOOOORKED!!!!!!!!!

Miles had a rotten year with the Cubs, but he's been a good utility guy in the past and could rediscover that with the A's.

Gray's shown signs of being a useful reliever; Morla's a kid (21) and has put up promising strikeout numbers in the low minors; Spencer's put up power numbers a high as Double A.

The Cubs wanted to get rid of Miles and build some depth in what was a weak farm system and this looks like a win for them and another roll of the dice for Beane and the A's.

Needless to say, the appellation of genius is fleeting.

Florida Marlins---Hot Stove Preview

• Winter Preview----Florida Marlins:

Time for another Marlins housecleaning and reloading.

What they need: A power outfield bat; a veteran starting pitcher; bullpen help, specifically a veteran who can close if necessary; a backup catcher.

Free agents: RHP Kiko Calero; RHP Brendan Donnelly; 1B/OF Ross Gload; 1B Nick Johnson; RHP Luis Ayala

Both Calero and Donnelly were typical Marlins scrapheap pickups from whom they managed to get some valuable use. Calero had a fantastic year----durable and effective against both lefties and righties. No way he's back.

Donnelly was languishing in the minors, bouncing from club to club when he was recalled by the Marlins and automatically took a major role as a set-up man and even notched a couple of big saves. He might be back.

Gload wants to return to the Marlins and they want him back, but sheer finances and his value make that unlikely. Gload had a load of big hits off the bench for the Marlins and should get at least a 2-year deal from someone. He'd be a great fit for the Mets, the Phillies and the Braves to name three teams. Gload was born in Brooklyn and I have a feeling he'll wind up with the Mets.

Nick Johnson showed why he's in demand and is a massive risk all in the span of one season. He had an excellent season for both the Marlins and Nationals, hit well and played solid defense and got on base. He also got hurt with a strained hamstring late in the season, severely compromising the Marlins playoff run. Someone will sign him to a good multi-year deal. He won't be back.

Ayala gives up a lot of homers, but he has use as a set-up man. He might be back.

Players available via trade: 1B/3B Jorge Cantu; 2B Dan Uggla; SS Hanley Ramirez; RHP Josh Johnson; OF Cody Ross; C Ronny Paulino; RHP Brian Sanches; RHP Matt Lindstrom; LHP Renyel Pinto; RHP Ricky Nolasco

It's a cycle with the Marlins----and a successful one----that once their players start to make big money, they clear the decks and extract the best minor leaguers or underappreciated talents from whomever they're trading with. After two years of contention and overachievement (at least in the eyes of the stat zombies----I'm still waiting for props for my accurate call on the Marlins this year; I'm not holding my breath), it's time for another housecleaning. And that includes everyone on the roster.

Cantu and Uggla will both be moved. After being dumped by the Rays and Reds literally for nothing, Cantu rejuvenated his career with the Marlins. He's a determined, clutch power hitter and racks up the RBIs.

Uggla is nothing if not consistent. A team acquiring him knows what they're going to get----hard nosed play, poor defense, power and strikeouts. He won't be looked at as simply a second baseman either. Teams in need of a first baseman or corner outfielder will want to make a move on Uggla as well.

You hear endless stuff about Ramirez and Josh Johnson not being on the block. Maybe not, but they are available for the right price and that price would be steep. I don't think they'll be traded this off season, but they're in play if someone calls the Marlins and wants to chat.

What a shock! Another productive player the Marlins got for nothing in Cody Ross can be had via trade. Ross is arbitration-eligible, is due a giant raise from his $2.25 million salary and will be moved.

Paulino is arbitration-eligible, had a fine year splitting time with John Baker and is a useful all-around player. They can find someone to replace him in a flooded market. There is a chance he stays and I think he will.

Sanches, Pinto and Lindstrom are all arbitration-eligible. Sanches and Pinto's salaries aren't likely to be so expensive that the Marlins will dump them; I say they stay. As for Lindstrom, there will be teams lining up to get their hands on his 100-mph fastball. I still do not know what was going through Mets GM Omar Minaya's head when he traded Lindstrom for the hideous Jason Vargas. Lindstrom's going to be traded.

Nolasco pitched so horribly early in the season that he wound up back in the minors after winning 15 games in 2008. It woke him up and he pitched very well from June to the end of the season. He's arbitration-eligible and due a big raise from his $2.4 million salary. Unless they're bowled over with offers, he and Johnson will be with the Marlins to start the season when they'll be held up for auction if the team struggles.

Non-tender candidates: OF Alfredo Amezaga

Amezega's about to turn 32 and doesn't do much of anything to justify the raise he'll get in arbitration from his $1.3 million salary. Gone.

Players to pursue:

Via free agency: RHP Rich Harden (Cubs); C Ramon Castro (White Sox); LHP Erik Bedard (Mariners); LHP Joe Beimel (Rockies); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); C Yorvit Torrealba (Rockies); RHP Brandon Lyon (Tigers); RHP Fernando Rodney (Tigers); RHP Doug Brocail (Astros); C Miguel Olivo (Royals); RHP Carl Pavano (Twins); RHP J.J. Putz (Mets); OF/1B Xavier Nady (Yankees); C Jose Molina (Yankees); RHP Justin Duchscherer (Athletics); INF Bobby Crosby (Athletics); RHP Pedro Martinez (Phillies); RHP Brad Penny (Giants); SS Khalil Greene (Cardinals); RHP John Smoltz (Cardinals); C Rod Barajas (Blue Jays)

The Marlins don't jump capriciously into free agency, but they do mine the market for bargains on mutually advantageous contracts. Harden, Penny, Bedard and Smoltz fall into this category as starting pitchers.

Pavano had his greatest success with the Marlins and we know he likes the beach.

A veteran closer would be a useful asset to the Marlins and Putz, Rodney and Lyon would presumably be willing to act as set-up men/tutors for the ultra-talented Leo Nunez and/or Lindstrom.

Greene's value couldn't be any lower after the rotten years he's had on and off the field in recent years----he's a perfect fit for the Marlins on a low-cost flier.

They may or may not need a backup catcher who can play relatively regularly. Castro and Olivo are both former Marlins. Torrealba and Barajas fill that bill as well.

Via trade: RHP Joba Chamberlain (Yankees); RHP Phil Hughes (Yankees); C Jesus Montero (Yankees); RHP Clay Buchholz (Red Sox); RHP Daniel Bard (Red Sox); RHP Michael Bowden (Red Sox); SS Casey Kelly (Red Sox); INF Gordon Beckham (White Sox); RHP Matt Harrison (Rangers); LHP Derek Holland (Rangers); RHP Neftali Felix (Rangers); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith (Mariners); RHP Kyle Drabek (Phillies); LHP J.A. Happ (Phillies); OF Michael Taylor (Phillies); Jayson Heyward (Braves); Tommy Hanson (Braves); RHP Bobby Parnell (Mets); RHP Mike Pelfrey (Mets); OF Fernando Martinez (Mets); RHP Jason Motte (Cardinals); 3B Josh Vitters (Cubs); SS Starlin Castro (Cubs); SS Alcides Escobar (Brewers); 3B Mat Gamel (Brewers); OF Matt Kemp (Dodgers); LHP Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers); RHP Jonathan Broxton (Dodgers); RHP James McDonald (Dodgers); OF Dexter Fowler (Rockies); OF Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies); RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies); LHP Madison Bumgarner (Giants); RHP Chris Young (Padres); RHP Heath Bell (Padres)

Yeah, these are the top prospects/young players from any and every organization that would or should have interest in Josh Johnson and/or Hanley Ramirez.

You want 'em?

Give it up.

And the Marlins do not miss when they target a prospect and there's very little ambiguity or negotiation.

"You want ? You gotta give me ."

We'll see what happens and who's willing to give up the biggest package(s) for the Marlins superstars. Teams would be well-served to back away from Roy Halladay and go after Johnson. It's going to cost a huge package of the whole farm system anyway and they won't have to dole out the contract extension that Halladay will require to keep him.

Don't be stunned to see a massive Marlins BLOCKBUSTER sometime during the winter. You heard it here.

• Braves sign Billy Wagner:

In a good deal for both sides, the Braves solved their closer problem by signing the veteran Wagner to what amounts to a 2-year deal. He's guaranteed $7 million next year with a vesting club option of $6.5 million that kicks in if he finishes 50 games in 2010.

Wagner will get to pitch in the South and close to his Virginia home for a team that promises to be a legitimate pennant contender next year and he's better than both Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez.

That said, the Braves should know what to expect from Wagner. He looked very good for the Mets and Red Sox after returning from Tommy John surgery and I'd expect him to stay healthy for the two years----Wagner keeps himself in great shape. He'll rack up most of his save opportunities during the season, but if they're expecting him to get big outs in September and October, they'd better be prepared to walk the tightrope.

While there are big game closers you can trust----Mariano Rivera, Bobby Jenks, Jonathan Papelbon----there are the next tier who you don't know what they'll do in a playoff or playoff-type game. Those guys are Trevor Hoffman, Joe Nathan...and Billy Wagner.

Believe me when I say this because it was Wagner's blowing Game 2 of the NLCS in 2006 that was one of the major factors that cost the Mets the World Series. I've seen it firsthand and if the Braves know this going in, they won't be shocked when it happens to them.

• Viewer Mail 12.3.2009:

Mike writes RE Brian Cashman:

I agree that in the past cashman has been quite the prospect hugger--but let me ask you a question. I was shocked that he didn't offer damon arbitration. I just can't see Boras letting him accept so now Cash is losing those prospects. any thoughts on this?

It was a shock that he didn't offer Damon arbitration. I would think that it'd be a very cost-effective thing to do if Damon didn't get the offers he wanted on the market; but considering the year Damon had and that it's highly unlikely that he's going to repeat those numbers again, a strategy of going on a "1-year deal and try free agency again" simply wouldn't make sense for Damon at age 36. I'd think that in the worst case scenario, someone----the Mariners, the Giants, the Cardinals----would offer Damon at least a 2-year deal, so he wouldn't have even accepted arbitration. It's a little weird that they declined to make the offer.

This might be a sign that the Yankees are playing it cool, acting like they're out of the big free agent market and will quick strike at Matt Holliday just as they did with Mark Teixeira last year.

Jeff at Red State Blue State writes RE Brad Lidge and the lack of free agent action:

I CANNOT WAIT for the rips to begin on Lidge again in 2010. I got so used to dipping into the neverending pile of Lidge jokes that I don't think I could handle him being good again.

Your take on the odd new angle by executives during the offseason is something to certainly think about. Most analysts are blaming the economy for the non-action and it seems that the front offices are going to ride this excuse -- and all its tentacles -- to the very end.

I truly don't know which Lidge will show up. And nor do the Phillies.

As for the economy, this can't be classified as collusion if no one's paying out for the big players. And if even the Yankees and Red Sox are holding their fire, players and their agents are going to panic sooner rather than later. You can't argue with teams not wanting to spend a load of money on a certain player when they could find similar production for a fraction of the cost; I just don't want to hear about the coveted draft picks when they ain't all that coveted if you go by history.

Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes RE Jason Giambi:

I like the idea of Giambi taking the place of Stairs on the Phillies. He probably takes a lot more walks and he can still belt HRs off the bench. Besides, I miss the 'stache.

Unless an American League team thinks Giambi can contribute as a DH for 85 or so games, he's not going to have much choice but to take a Matt Stairs-type situation; and why not go to a contender like the Phillies, Braves, Giants, Dodgers or Cardinals as a lethal lefty bat off the bench?

Franklin writes RE free agency:

I actually think most of the posturing is to lower the prices of free agents.

It's not a bad strategy to be honest; and since they have to come up with an excuse, I guess the draft pick theory isn't out of this world ludicrous, but people who know the success rate and cost of prospects can tear apart the theory with little effort. The thing is, this attempt to hold down costs looks like it's working!

Philadelphia Phillies---Hot Stove Preview

• Winter Preview----Philadelphia Phillies:

Amid all the heady self-adoration, the Phillies have some issues.

What they need: A third baseman; a veteran starting pitcher; a utility infielder/outfielder; bullpen help; a closer(?).

Free agents: 3B Pedro Feliz; RHP Pedro Martinez; RHP Brett Myers; LHP Scott Eyre; RHP Chan Ho Park; C Paul Bako; INF Miguel Cairo; OF/1B Matt Stairs

The Phillies surprisingly declined Feliz's reasonable contract option of $5 million. They're looking in other directions for a third baseman who would presumably have better on base numbers than Feliz. There's a chance Feliz returns at a cheaper rate, but I think they'll find an alternative and Feliz will move on.

Who knows what Pedro's going to do? After his performances in the post-season, it's obvious he can still pitch; but he can't be counted on to stay healthy. There's a chance he returns to Philadelphia, but I wouldn't count on it.

Myers's time in Philadelphia is over. He'll be in surprisingly heavy demand because of his ability to start and relieve. Myers's personality belongs in the bullpen and he'll get an offer to close somewhere (Detroit?) on a mutually advantageous contract.

Eyre's body is breaking down with arm issues and he spoke of retiring to be with his family. That said, he can still pitch and the Phillies want him back. Expect him to return for another year.

Park has rejuvenated his career as a reliever, but the still harbors fantasies of being a starter. Unless a team mistakenly decides that that's a good idea, he'll get offers as a reliever in many, many places. He could return to Philly.

Bako's a journeyman and the Phillies signing of Brian Schneider to a 2-year contract effectively ends Bako's brief Phillies career. He'll get a job somewhere as a backup/Triple A insurance.

Cairo's a useful utility guy who's a better hitter than Eric Bruntlett. (At this point, I'm a better hitter than Eric Bruntlett.) Cairo might be back.

Stairs looks like he'd be just as happy playing beer-league softball and waiting for his turn to come up to the plate and crush a fastball then get back to his station next to the cooler. He'll be able to bash fastballs until he's 60. He might be back.

Players available via trade: RHP Joe Blanton; 3B/OF Greg Dobbs; LHP Cole Hamels; RHP Kyle Kendrick; RHP Brad Lidge; LHP Jamie Moyer; SS Jimmy Rollins

Blanton is arbitration-eligible, is due a big raise from his $5.5 million salary from 2009 and is a free agent after next season. He has value in that you know with him. You know you'll get gutty efforts; you know he'll throw strikes; you know he'll give you innings, etc. That said, if a team called and asked GM Ruben Amaro Jr about Blanton, he'd be more than willing to chat about him and maybe move him. I don't expect it, but it's possible.

Dobbs had a shaky year as a lefty bat off the bench and is making $1.35 million next year. He can't play defense and there are better options available on the free agent market (Ross Gload?); Dobbs could be dealt if someone's willing to take his contract. He can hit.

Surprised to see Hamels's name here? Well, I think the Phillies are concerned about his up-and-down performance and were more than annoyed about his frustrated comments during the World Series that he couldn't wait for the season to be over while he still was in line to pitch Game 7. He's a guy who's not "on the block", but they'll listen to calls.

Kendrick's numbers aren't very good aside from his ability to hang around in games long enough to collect wins. There's nothing wrong with that and he's good insurance as a spot-starter for someone. He's probably staying because he's cheap.

You want Brad Lidge?

Do you know which Brad Lidge you'll be getting?

Is it the unstoppable force and the key to the Phillies 2008 World Series win? "Light Out" Lidge as he was with the Astros earlier in the decade? Or the mental/emotional quadriplegic who would quiver at the sight of Eddie Gaedel coming up to the plate when he's in the midst of an unraveling?

Who knows?

Unless the Phillies took a Barry Zito/Vernon Wells contract in return, Lidge's contract is unmovable with $24.5 million guaranteed through 2011. The only thing they can do is hope his issues (physical and mental) are straightened out by next season; and given his history, there's every chance for that to happen. He'll be the Phillies closer next year for better or worse. You can venture a guess as to which it'll be.

Giving Moyer a 2-year contract after the World Series win in 2008 wasn't the smartest thing in the world to do. He's a guy who's not going to leave the field voluntarily no matter how badly his body breaks down and now he's been hospitalized with an infection after groin surgery. He might simply be released with the Phillies eating his $6.5 million salary in 2010.

Surprised to see Rollins's name here? Don't be.

Rollins's game is declining and once he begins to slow down physically in earnest, what is he bringing to the table aside from a big, flapping mouth?

Rollins's bluster and arrogance were charming while he was winning the MVP in 2007, but it's becoming a case of diminishing returns for the loquacious Rollins. He's got $9.5 million guaranteed through next year with the potential for being a free agent if the Phillies decline his 2011 option.

I can tell you now that he's going to start squawking about his contract as early as spring training and could cause some serious problems in the clubhouse. I doubt many of the Phillies are thrilled about his constant yapping. He probably won't be moved, but if someone calls and asks, the Phillies would be stupid not to listen.

Non-tender candidates: INF/OF Eric Bruntlett; RHP Clay Condrey; LHP Jack Taschner

I'm not quite sure what it is that Bruntlett does that keeps him in the big leagues.

Condrey has some use as a reliever for someone, but he's arbitration-eligible and will top the $1 million mark (maybe $1.5 million) in his award or via agreement with the club and that's too much money for a guy like him.

Taschner's main attributes are that he's lefty and is breathing. He's got rotten control and got rocked equally by lefty and right bats. Gone.

Players to pursue:

Via free agency: LHP Mike Gonzalez (Braves); RHP Rafael Soriano (Braves); LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); 3B Melvin Mora (Orioles); RHP Octavio Dotel (White Sox); 1B Jason Giambi (Rockies); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); RHP Kiko Calero (Marlins); 3B Adrian Beltre (Mariners); 3B/1B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); 1B/OF Ross Gload (Marlins); SS/3B Miguel Tejada (Astros); 3B Chone Figgins (Angels); LHP Randy Wolf (Dodgers); RHP Justin Duchscherer (Athletics): RHP Miguel Batista (Mariners); INF/OF Mark DeRosa (Cardinals); RHP Russ Springer (Rays); INF Marco Scutaro (Blue Jays); RHP John Smoltz

The bullpen help is out there and available with Gonzalez, Soriano and Dotel----guys who can close if absolutely necessary in the event of the need to send Lidge to a mental institution.

There are a load of third basemen available for various prices. Mora's a good fielder and a good guy who might see his bat reignite in the Phillies lineup and at their bandbox ballpark. Figgins was supposedly on the Phillies radar; I think committing a load of money to Figgins is a mistake. Tejada won't have much choice but to move to third base for any team interested in him and he can still hit. DeRosa is in heavy demand from numerous contending teams. Scutaro wouldn't be a bad idea for third base at the right price.

Giambi could fill the Dobbs/Stairs role as a power lefty bat off the bench and he still walks a lot.

Davis, Wolf, Marquis and Duchscherer are risky/relatively inexpensive/mid-to-back of the rotation starters who'd fill the hole left by Moyer if the Phillies drop him.

Smoltz can still pitch as a starter or reliever.

Via trade: RHP Roy Halladay (Blue Jays); RHP Edwin Jackson (Tigers); 3B Jhonny Peralta (Indians); RHP Kevin Millwood (Rangers); 2B Dan Uggla (Marlins); 3B Garrett Atkins (Rockies); 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (Padres); RHP Chris Young (Padres); RHP Heath Bell (Padres); 3B Mark Reynolds (Diamondbacks)

The Phillies are still keeping tabs on Halladay and still have the prospects to get it done if they're willing to totally gut the farm system and pay the cash it'll cost to keep the big righty. The Phillies have to sign Cliff Lee to an extension at some point, so a Halladay move is a big leap in the financial department for a team with a budget. Maybe Hamels would be a chip to get it done.

Jackson's out there for the taking. Millwood's available and pitched pretty well for the Phillies in 2003-2004.

Peralta would be a low-cost option at third base. Could Uggla move to third? The Marlins have no qualms about trading within the division.

Anyone and everyone is up for discussion with the Padres and Bell would be a good set-up man/replacement closer.

Reynolds hit 44 homers, but is a rotten fielder and strikes out 200 times a year. Would the Diamondbacks listen to offers for him? It doesn't hurt to ask.

• Teams are using draft pick compensation as an excuse to shun free agents:

Do you know the likelihood of even a first round draft pick making it to the big leagues to not just be a star, but to be moderately productive?

It's hit or miss.

But teams are using the newly terrifying implication of draft....pick....compensation.....OOOOOH!!! to justify their reluctance to go after needed pieces at the big league level when there are players who they need to drastically improve their clubs.

Mike Francesa was talking about the Brian Cashman discussion yesterday morning as Cashman said he wasn't going to go after a reliever like Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano because of their status in costing a first round pick to sign. To me, Gonzalez is a perfect fit for the Yankees. This isn't a situation like Kyle Farnsworth or Steve Karsay----Gonzalez would be an ideal bridge to Mariano Rivera and even an occasional closer, but Cashman is hoarding his draft picks as if he's Jimmy Johnson coaching the Cowboys.

It's nonsense.

First of all, there's no guarantee that any first round pick----no matter who he is----is going to even make it to the big leagues. The Yankees got a sliding Joba Chamberlain with the 41st pick because of his arm issues and overwork at the University of Nebraska. Smart teams make their best picks later in the draft or via undrafted free agents. That's where the real talent evaluation shows itself. Every team knows who the obvious top tier picks are; it's finding the unpolished gems where organizations are built.

Picking a year at random (and I'm really picking a year at random, not finding a conveniently poor year to suit my purposes), let's see how the first rounders from 2003 have done. Six years is an ample amount of time to judge, so here we go:

2003 First Round Picks:

1. Rays-OF Delmon Young
2. Brewers-INF Rickie Weeks
3. Tigers-RHP Kyle Sleeth
4. Padres-RHP Tim Stauffer
5. Royals-OF Christopher Lubanski
6. Cubs-OF Ryan Harvey
7. Orioles-OF Nick Markakis
8. Pirates-LHP Paul Maholm
9. Rangers-LHP John Danks
10. Rockies-3B Ian Stewart
11. Indians-1B Michael Aubrey
12. Mets-OF Lastings Milledge
13. Blue Jays-INF Aaron Hill
14. Reds-RHP Ryan Wagner
15. White Sox-OF Brian N. Anderson
16. Marlins-RHP Jeffrey Allison
17. Red Sox-OF David Murphy
18. Indians-OF Bradley Snyder
19. Diamondbacks-1B/OF Conor Jackson
20. Nationals-RHP Chad Cordero
21. Twins-3B Matthew Moses
22. Giants-RHP David Aardsma
23. Angels-SS Brandon Wood
24. Dodgers-RHP Chad Billingsley
25. Athletics-RHP Bradley Sullivan
26. Athletics-3B Brian Snyder
27. Yankees-3B Eric Duncan
28. Cardinals-C Daric Barton
29. Diamondbacks-OF Carlos Quentin
30. Royals-C Mitch Maier
31. Indians-RHP Adam Miller
32. Red Sox-OF Matt Murton
33. Athletics-SS Omar Quintanilla
34. Giants-RHP Roger Whitaker
35. Braves-RHP Luis Atilano
36. Braves-C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
37. Mariners-SS Adam Jones

Now, far be it from me to rip teams and their strategies for no reason, but do you see one name above, aside from Chad Billingsley and Nick Markakis, that would cause any great consternation to a team to miss out on had they signed a coveted and necessary free agent?

The majority of them won't even make it to the big leagues at all and would've been released from their clubs outright had they not been drafted so highly to begin with.

For all the Moneyball nonsense of the playoffs being a "crapshoot", the real crapshoot is the draft. And the first rounders, while being shots in the dark and based on luck many, many times, are also expensive in their own right with massive signing bonuses and guaranteed big league contracts.

This is not the NFL or NBA where the players go straight to the big time either. So when you hear about teams hoarding their draft picks, look at them slightly askew and ask the question, "hoarding them for what? You're telling me we're not signing a Matt Holliday; a Jason Bay; a Mark DeRosa because of some draft pick who won't be here for 3-5 years?"

The failure in the draft is prevalent. Check for yourself----Baseball Reference Draft----and rightfully question what the agenda is exactly. Are the building an organization or finding excuses to be cheap?

You tell me.

• Viewer Mail 12.2.2009:

Jeff at Red State Blue State writes RE Roy Halladay:

If you really want to make the potential Halladay deal turn out to be a somethin' for nothin' type of deal a la Johan, I'm sure the Brewers would field a straight up offer for Carlos Gomez.

One would think that the Blue Jays wouldn't be as greedy as the Twins were and self-sabotage, but who knows? I can't imagine the anger of the Blue Jays fans----who've had to deal with the whole J.P. Ricciardi sideshow for so long----if they wound up getting pennies on the dollar for Halladay; but that's where it's heading if they don't strike fast.

John Seal writes RE the Athletics:

The day I've been waiting for finally arrived: Prince Paul's Hot Stove Heater for the 2010 Athletics. Job well done, Prince. I don't see the A's trading Davis, but now's the time to do it. And as the world's biggest Jack Cust fan (hey, I don't always have to think logically, do I?), I'm excited to see what his twin on the infield, Dallas McPherson, may be able to do. Thoughts?

I spend my entire life thinking illogically. It seems to work in my never-ending quest to create anarchy.

Here's something funny John, after you're entirely justified lashing at my continually mentioning Bobby Crosby as a useful player for certain teams, it turns out the Red Sox really are interested in him as I suggested earlier. Why, I dunno.

As for Beane, he's been remarkably indecisive with some of his reclamation projects like Davis and Cust. Both have use, but Cust is about to become really pricey for what he does and they could get similar production from a better hitter like Jim Thome on a short term deal as long as he's exclusively a DH. I don't think Cust is movable at this point; they could get something for Davis.

With McPherson, he's 29; he's washed out with the Angels and Marlins----two teams known for spotting talent and giving unappreciated players a chance to play; and he's never ever done anything in the big leagues when given a shot; he didn't play at all in 2009 after the Marlins dumped him and he signed with the Giants; and he's had major back problems.

Put it this way: if the A's get anything from McPherson, Beane should head to Vegas and straight for the roulette wheel. Or buy some Powerball lottery tickets.

Oakland Athletics---Hot Stove Preview

• Winter Preview----Oakland Athletics:

Send out a search party for Billy Beane's missing genius. A big one.

What they need: A big time power bat at first base or the outfield; a solid, durable, veteran starting pitcher; a third baseman.

Free agents: SS Bobby Crosby; RHP Justin Duchscherer; INF Nomar Garciaparra; INF Adam Kennedy; RHP Brett Tomko

Both Crosby and the Athletics seem to have mutually agreed to part ways. Crosby's been atrocious over the past few years; doesn't have any interest in being a utility player in a retooling situation in Oakland; and should have offers elsewhere for his versatility and inexpensiveness. Maybe a change of scenery will wake up his bat.

Duchscherer missed the entire 2009 season with injuries and dealing with depression. He's been injury-prone throughout his career, but is in heavy demand on a short-term deal. People may not realize it, but Duchscherer has been an All Star twice----as a reliever in 2005 and as a starter in 2008. At age 32, he has time to rehabilitate his career. He'll move along to a better club with more of a chance to contend. (The Red Sox are said to be very interested.)

Has Nomar retired yet?

Kennedy had a fine year (.289 Avg; 11 homers; filling in admirably at third base----a position he'd never before played in the majors) after he was released by the Cardinals and dumped by the Rays. He's carving a new career for himself as a utility infielder and should find himself in a better situation (the Phillies?) with a decent contract maybe for more than one year. He won't be back in Oakland.

Tomko----a journeyman's journeyman who would make Kurt Bevacqua shake his head at the frequent changes of uniform----pitched reasonably well for the A's after he joined them in August. He'll be 37 in April and would be well-served to stay in Oakland.

Players available via trade: 1B Daric Barton; 3B Eric Chavez; DH/1B/OF Jack Cust; OF Rajai Davis; 2B Mark Ellis; OF Scott Hairston; RHP Michael Wuertz

People forget that the key to the Mark Mulder trade to the Cardinals was not Dan Haren, but Daric Barton. Barton's done almost nothing in the big leagues since an impressive audition in 2007; and he's not the sharpest knife in the drawer (he almost killed himself diving headfirst into a shallow pool in 2008). With that in mind, he's still only 24 so he could have some value on the market or if the A's really believe in him. I think their faith is wavering.

Chavez's back problems have ruined a player who was a rising star. He's got $15 million guaranteed through 2010 and it's just bad luck for the A's that he got hurt; there's no one to blame.

Beane should've traded Cust after reviving his flagging career in 2007. Now, he's arbitration-eligible; is due a big raise from his $2.8 million salary in 2009; and the holes in his game make him almost worthless to trade since there are so many better options in the flooded market. Cust strikes out too much; has a glove made of solid granite; and is slow and streaky. He's going nowhere.

I really like Davis. He can run and he's a better hitter than he's given credit for; but he's arbitration-eligible and the A's need a power bat more than they need Davis's speed.

Ellis is a serviceable second baseman; he has some pop and plays the position well. He's affordable ($6 million next year) and probably isn't going anywhere.

Hairston has some use and can hit the ball out of the park, but he didn't hit after the A's acquired him from the Padres and is arbitration-eligible. He might get non-tendered.

Wuertz is one of the more underrated relievers in baseball. The Cubs missed him terribly in their hideous bullpen last season and every year, he puts up the innings, appearances and strikeouts and does his job in a quiet fashion. He's arbitration-eligible, but the A's are crazy if they non-tender him. On the trade market, he'd be in heavy demand for contending teams like the Yankees, White Sox, Red Sox and a bunch of other clubs.

Non-tender candidates: Aside from Davis and Hairston, I don't see anyone for whom it makes even the slightest sense to just dump without trying to trade.

Players to pursue:

Via free agency: 1B Adam LaRoche (Braves); LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); 1B Chad Tracy (Diamondbacks); OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); 1B/3B Aubrey Huff (Tigers); 1B Nick Johnson (Marlins); DH Vladimir Guerrero (Angels); RHP Jon Garland (Dodgers); RHP Vicente Padilla (Dodgers); 3B Joe Crede (Twins); 1B/DH Carlos Delgado (Mets); DH Hideki Matsui (Yankees); OF/1B Xavier Nady (Yankees); 3B Pedro Feliz (Phillies); RHP Brad Penny (Giants); 1B Russell Branyan (Mariners); 3B/1B Hank Blalock (Rangers); SS/3B Miguel Tejada (Astros); RHP Ben Sheets

Most of these names are players to plug holes; guys who may not have other options than to go to Oakland and rebuild their careers; or may slip through the cracks.

LaRoche, Johnson and Delgado will have offers elsewhere, but the A's should keep tabs on them to see if they end up on the outside looking in and are available for a cheap, short-term, incentive-laden deal.

Crede's back issues are similar to those of Chavez, but he'd come on a cheap contract and is worth a shot if all other options disappear.

Penny's asking for a lot of money based on a brief, late-season hot streak for the Giants and might be in for a rude awakening as the winter shakes itself out. Beane has a tendency of pouncing on situations like that and getting useful pieces cheaply.

Tejada had a good relationship with Beane while he was with the A's early in his career. Would he come back to play third base? Maybe.

Via trade: 3B Edwin Encarnacion (Blue Jays); 1B Lyle Overbay (Blue Jays); RHP Edwin Jackson (Tigers); 3B Jhonny Peralta (Indians); 3B/1B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); 2B/1B/DH Dan Uggla (Marlins); OF Milton Bradley (Cubs); 3B Garrett Atkins (Rockies); 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (Padres); RHP Chris Young (Padres)

Encarnacion has a ton of talent and is arbitration-eligible. Overbay is available too and is due a cheap $7 million next year.

The Tigers are desperately trying to move Jackson for reasons no one seems to understand. Teams might get scared wondering why they want to trade a pitcher who's young and looked like Dave Stewart early last season before a heavy workload tired him down the stretch. Beane may not be a genius, but he's not afraid to make bold moves.

Peralta's shift to third base makes him attractive to a team like the A's. Atkins is out there for the taking and the A's and Rockies have a trading relationship after the Matt Holliday blockbuster last year.

Uggla's getting traded and is a prime candidate to move to first base.

Yeah, I know. Milton Bradley. But he was with the A's before and performed and behaved himself----mostly. The A's could get him for nothing and the Cubs would pay most of his salary.

Amid all the ridicule Beane received last year as the A's collapsed following an off-season in which they were a trendy pick to win the AL West, they're not that far away from contending. They have a load of young pitching up and down the staff. If they get a couple of bats, they could surprise. Beane, while not being a "genius" on the level of the idiotic implication of Moneyball, is still one of the top GMs in baseball and could replenish his club and his image with a couple of bold, smart moves this winter.

• Echoes of Johan:

It's almost eerie how history is repeating itself with Roy Halladay as the latest news comes out that he won't okay a trade anywhere after the winter----ESPN Story. And that history is almost identical to what happened with Johan Santana in 2007-2008.

Santana knew he wasn't going to be back with the Twins; he knew he was going to get traded; and he asked for it to be completed before the season started. Halladay is being a little bit more aggressive in his attempts to get out of Toronto.

I called this weeks ago.

After Halladay quietly requested a move at mid-season and then-GM J.P. Ricciardi bollixed everything up as if he was trying to get himself fired (it worked), Halladay looked royally pissed for the rest of the season. He wants out. And if the Blue Jays and new GM Alex Anthopolous are going to mess around, Halladay's going to play hardball.

If this is the case, if things are going down this road, the Blue Jays had better get something done and quick. The Yankees and Red Sox were going through the motions for Santana. They didn't really want Santana for the packages the Twins were demanding and then have to face the prospect of signing what was essentially a free agent contract with the pitcher. Now, it's happening again with Halladay.

Is Anthopolous going to overplay his hand as Twins GM Bill Smith did in getting literally nothing for Santana? Unless something's done in the next couple of weeks, that possibility will come closer and closer to reality. Cooler heads prevailed with Santana and while the Yankees and Red Sox are chasing Halladay not just for his brilliance, but to keep him away from the other team, they're not going to mortgage the farm to get him. Might it be enough for either club just to get Halladay out of the league and away from their divisional rival? The Angels and Dodgers are in on Halladay too as are the White Sox; but as the days pass what happened with Santana might be happening again right before our very eyes.

The Mets are lurking.

And waiting.

Again.

GM Omar Minaya was rebuffed by the Twins in his initial discussions for Santana and famously told his bosses on the QT, "it's gonna come back to us". Is he saying the same thing now with Halladay?

Anthopolous had better trade Halladay when he gets an acceptable offer. Or else the Mets "weak" farm system may not look so weak after all as D-day approaches with Halladay.