Did I Offend The Wrong Zambrano?

• Um, sorry Victor?

If you heard my podcast appearance of Friday with Sal at SportsFanBuzz and listened to Part II discussing the National League (here's Part I on the AL), you may or may not remember me mistakenly referring to Cubs pitcher Carlos Zambrano as Victor Zambrano. Considering the perceived abilities and careers of the two pitchers, it was an on-the-surface insult to Carlos Zambrano----or maybe it wasn't.

My mistake may have been an insult to Victor because after Carlos's odious performance against the Braves yesterday, he might actually be worse than Victor.

Here's the line----and it may be more of a terrifying horror film than the upcoming re-make of A Nightmare on Elm Street starring Jackie Earle Haley (Kelly Leak in The Bad News Bears, enjoying a career resurgence in middle-age). Freddy Krueger himself would've been mortified by Carlos yesterday.

Avert your eyes if you're weak of heart/stomach.

Innings pitched: 1 1/3

Hits: 6

Runs: 8

Earned runs: 8

Walks: 2

Strikeouts: 1

Home runs allowed: 2

Pitches: 49; Strikes: 28

This is an Oliver Perez/Fausto Carmona-type performance for a pitcher who's owed a guaranteed $53 million and has the stuff to win 22 games.

How Cubs manager Lou Piniella keeps from attacking Zambrano as he did with Rob Dibble years ago and appeared at times to want to do with Randy Johnson is beyond me. I can only shake my head at Carlos Zambrano. Usually there's an obvious reason for a pitcher's struggles; but with this pitcher, I haven't the faintest idea what's wrong with him.

In the past he's lacked focus; concentration; location; been unable to control his temper; hasn't been in shape----or all of the above. It's one thing to get rocked----it's opening day; in the cosmic scheme of things it's essentially meaningless----but to be thoroughly non-competitive and deliver a line that I could've provided at age 38 and with a giant bone chip in my elbow and having not picked up a baseball and thrown it competitively in 16 years, is panic-inducing for the Cubs.

What makes it worse was his supposed dedication to being ready for 2010. Last season, Carlos was counted on to be the ace of a Cubs team in flux; he got injured and was admittedly out of shape and lapsed on his rehabilitation. He was a major part of the Cubs fall to also-ran status as he went 9-7 in 28 starts.

As trade rumors swirled around him this past winter, he insisted he wanted to stay with the Cubs; that he wanted to redeem himself.

Then he pitched on opening day.

Of course there's time to turn things around. Carlos has the stuff to be a winner; but then again so do Oliver Perez and Fausto Carmona; and so too did Victor Zambrano, as a matter of fact.

Stuff doesn't always translate into success; and unless Carlos truly gets his head together and makes the required changes, things are only going to get worse.

If that's possible after what happened yesterday; and it may not be.

• Jayson Heyward's explosive debut:

Prized and impressive prospect Jayson Heyward homered in his first big league at bat for the Braves yesterday and only increased the intensity of coverage that will follow him around.

The 20-year-old has mega-star potential; and he's done nothing to dissuade observers from buying into the hype that's included comparisons to Willie Mays.

It's still smart to tone it down a little.

Putting someone on such a high pedestal is a very difficult thing to live up to and maintain; Heyward is from the Atlanta area; is a worshipped entity even before his big league career has started in earnest; and is seen as a savior for a club that desperately needs him to hit if they want to seriously contend.

We've seen the hype machine from the Braves before with Jeff Francoeur and Jordan Schafer and both were nearly run out of town when they showed themselves to be human. Heyward is far more talented than both; but that doesn't mean he's not going to have adversity as he makes his way around the league. One would think the club and town had learned their lesson; but judging from the way Heyward has been played up as the next Hall of Fame-caliber player, they haven't.

It's an invitation to a downfall no matter how gifted the player is.

• Josh Beckett agrees to a contract extension with the Red Sox:

Now I'm annoyed.

Already one of my predictions in my book has been proven wrong with Beckett agreeing to a 4-year, $68 million contract extension with the Red Sox----ESPN Story.

I felt that Beckett was going to want to explore free agency and go after a contract comparable in dollars and length to what C.C. Sabathia got from the Yankees. Even in this economy, it's not absurd to think that Beckett could've gotten an extra 3-4 years in a contract from a big market team like the Mets, Angels or Dodgers. Given his durability and reputation as a post-season ace (he's one of the best big game pitchers I've ever seen), he could've gotten more money.

Instead, he signed with the Red Sox for four more years.

This is an interesting decision by the club.

In years past, the Red Sox have been reluctant to commit so many guaranteed dollars to pitchers. So many things can go wrong with a pitcher that they did have an argument for refusing to dig so deeply into the coffers for pitching. Now, they've locked up John Lackey; Jon Lester; and Beckett for the next four years. Lackey and Beckett are both 30, so it's a risk; Lackey especially has had arm trouble. Only time will tell whether this was the smart move; but it was a meeting in the middle by both the club and the pitcher.

• The Prince on the Podcasts:

In case you missed them, I was a guest on two podcasts this past weekend.

First, I was on with Sal at SportsFanBuzz. The Podcast links are available here---- Part I and Part II on Friday; then Sunday with Mike Silva at New York Baseball Digest. The link is here: NYBD Podcast. Fast forward to 1 hour and 36 seconds to hear my "sexy rasp" and baseball talk that some would love to hear all...day...long. (Not my words.)

• Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide:

And of course, my book is still available. Even though the season's started, that doesn't diminish the book's use. It's a guide, not a preview. Check it out. It's been slightly marked down on Amazon and available on I-Universe in paperback and E-book.

2010 Stories To Watch----The Final Chapter

• Thus ends the pre-season stories to watch...or does it?

Just when you thought it was over, the man who brought you the 2010 Stories To Watch eleven times before...brings them to you.....again....

Here are the final pre-season (even though it's technically not anymore) Stories to To Watch for 2010.

Cliff Lee's injury:

With the Mariners being as top-heavy as they are and relying on Cliff Lee as the centerpiece for their intention to contend (or as an inordinately valuable trade chip if they don't), the one thing I don't believe anyone counted on was Lee getting hurt again. He had an abdominal injury that sabotaged his season in 2007 with the Indians and he pitched so poorly when he returned that he wound up back in the minors.

After the Cy Young Award winning season in 2008 and his brilliance last season in the playoffs, it was believed that his dedication to fitness would prevent this from happening again; but now he's started the season on the disabled list for the Mariners and it's not like a hamstring or calf; abdominals are tricky and were an issue beforehand.

I know I've discussed this before, but now he's actually on the disabled list. If the Mariners----top heavy and attached to the required greatness of Lee and Felix Hernandez to contend----are in deep trouble without Lee.

The collapsing world of Billy Beane:

How many more passes is Athletics boss Billy Beane going to get?

I can't stop asking because no one seems willing to give me a sensible response.

The Jack Cust mess has been baffling from the time Beane resurrected Cust's flagging career until now. Cust----a former first round pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks in 1997 who bounced from the Diamondbacks; to the Rockies; to the Orioles; to the Padres, before joining the Athletics---failed in part because he didn't produce when he was in the big leagues and in part because he never got a fair shot until he got to Oakland.

Beane deserves credit for that. In fact, this type of maneuver----the low-risk/high-reward of players who were out of chances----was a huge part of the Beane legend. With Cust, however, it came down to a case of diminishing returns. Despite being inexpensive and developing into a "known" quantity from whom a team would pencil in what they're going to get (homers and walks), when Beane cleared out the veterans Dan Haren and Nick Swisher, it made sense for him to move Cust as well. Cust was never going to be more than what he was; and there was always a chance for regression.

Instead, Beane held onto him.

Then after last season, Cust was due for a big raise and Beane non-tendered him only to re-sign him at a cheaper rate. Again, at least the A's knew what they were getting----until Beane cut Cust last week. Now, rather than getting the production at the big league level, the A's are going to be paying Cust $2.65 million to be Triple A insurance and won't get anything for him in a trade.

The players like Cust; like Eric Chavez have had enough of Beane's self-serving and floating machinations. Having treated anyone and everyone as if they're disposable entities, either on the bus or under it, the scrutiny is growing.

I'm on the record as saying that Beane's star is reaching white dwarf status; that his time in Oakland is drawing to a close. Admittedly, I thought it wouldn't begin until the season was in full swing. Even with the bizarre signing of Ben Sheets; the haphazard and desperate construction of a team that is inexplicably expected to contend in certain circles; I didn't see it starting this quickly.

The Cust move is another thread in the unraveling.

If this were Dayton Moore or Omar Minaya making these decisions, what would be said?

If the A's get off to a bad start, this is going dismantle piece-by-piece like a plummeting satellite; and it's gonna be an event that's painful to watch, but too fascinating to look away.

The Mets:

Bottom line, if the Mets get off to a bad start, ownership isn't going to be able to withstand the barrage that's going to accompany it.

After a horrific 2009; a shaky off-season; and relentless abuse that went so far over-the-top that it was absurd, the Wilpons can't sit by and let things spiral without doing something. Whether that would be to fire manager Jerry Manuel or both he and GM Omar Minaya is the question.

My guess would be that Manuel would be the first to go to see if a switch to Bobby Valentine or Bob Melvin would spark an awakening. After that, Minaya would be next. (And don't expect any big name taking over. It'd be John Ricco and only John Ricco taking over as GM.) Expectations in almost all circles are so low that the Mets could play under-the-radar in a similar way as they did in Valentine's first year in 1997.

They got off to a bad start; Valentine stayed positive; kept working hard; and before anyone knew it, they looked up and saw the Mets in the middle of the pennant race until late in the season.

If they hold their heads above water until Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran return, the management team should be safe.

Maybe.

The Phillies bullpen:

Who's closing?

Ryan Madson?

Danys Baez?

Those lusting after the Phillies and uttering the ridiculous "100 wins" mantra are ignoring that horrible bullpen. As much as it can be denied, the club did not address their weaknesses this off-season. Period.

They needed pitching help.

Danys Baez is okay as a 7th inning man; Jose Contreras isn't. They can't expect the Chad Durbin from 2008 ever again; and Brad Lidge is having physical issues to go with his general mental/confidence problems. J.C. Romero looks like he's going to have recurrent aches and pains with his arm. Now, Joe Blanton is on the disabled list with an oblique strain.

They're looking at Tim Redding and Nelson Figueroa.

That says it all.

Scott Kazmir:

Wouldn't it a be a kick----six years after the fact----if Rick Peterson was right about Scott Kazmir? That his motion is too stressful and his bone structure too frail to be a long-term durable innings-eater?

In every start the lefty is at risk for getting hurt. This is not, under any circumstances, defending the Mets idiotic decision to trade Kazmir for Victor Zambrano in 2004; in fact, it's conceivable that had they held onto Kazmir, they could've packaged him to the Athletics for Tim Hudson after the season or later.

The deal is what it is; but we can separate the reason for making the move with the move itself.

As dominating as Kazmir can be, he's always an injury-risk. Always.

The Angels have never shied away from pitchers with funky motions (Jered Weaver); or small frames (Ervin Santana); and they made a bold move for Kazmir. I can't get away from the feeling that he needs to be a closer; that he's never going to be able to start long-term. This latest trip to the disabled list might be evidence of that.

The Rangers:

Talk about needing to get off to a good start.

With the Ron Washington cocaine disaster seeming to have died down a little, they must-must-must-must get off to a good start. The worst possible scenario for the Rangers is to have Rich Harden walk off the mound with a strained...something in the third inning tomorrow. Plus with C.J. Wilson, a reliever, being inserted into the starting rotation, there could be trouble in Texas sooner rather than later.

Washington's demise will be facilitated by a bad start; and it would take the team off the hook from any allegations of blackmail as the reason for keeping him on after the positive cocaine test last year. There's always the excuse of "the team wasn't playing well" to get rid of the manager.

It would be the best thing for them.

Joba:

Of course, after one appearance, the debate of Joba Chamberlain is going to start up again.

Much was said about Chamberlain's shaky performance last night; but what I liked was his improved demeanor. His velocity was down in the low-90s, but it's early in the season. Not something to discount entirely because one would think he'd be fired up for opening night in Boston, it's not a concern yet. If it continues into the season, it might be something to worry about. (Could he be demoted?!?)

That said, I liked his swagger; that he appeared more confident relieving. The problem was location more than stuff. One thing the Yankees cannot do is to jerk him around more than they already have by panicking if he stumbles a bit in the transition back to the bullpen.

But I think they will.

It's history talking.

Not me.

• Viewer Mail 4.5.2010:

Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes RE the White Sox:

You really do like those White Sox. Guess I'd better take another look at them.

They're really, really good. Dunno if I should be concerned that Ken Rosenthal apparently picked them as well, but I made my call first. I'll live with it.

John Seal (West Coast Spiritual Advisor) writes RE Billy Beane and Jack Cust:

As you can imagine, I'm on a real Jack Cust-inspired emotional rollercoaster. The season hasn't even begun, and my favorite brainless slugger has been DFA'd...help me, Prince, help me...I'm having nightmares about the zombie corpse of Eric Chavez shuffling its way to first base...

It's insanity what they're doing over there.

As an somewhat objective observer (although I love being right), the best case scenario for the A's at this point would be for everything to implode. Then they can move forward. I don't think you need to worry about Eric Chavez; he'll be shuffling to the disabled list shortly after completing the shuffle to first base or third base or to the urinal.

When are you getting on Twitter, John? The Family is growing, but I need more management-type reinforcements. I'm still working on that psychopath in Arizona with an offer of control of his own fiefdom (partially because I need to distance myself from what he might do and believe it or not, he's more unstable than I am); and the Canadian pimpmaster.

It's lucrative for all!!!

• The hypnotic sound of my voice:

My podcast appearances are available for your listening pleasure. Or anger. Or hatred. Or rage. Or lust. Or all of the above.

First, I was on with Sal at SportsFanBuzz. The Podcast links are available here---- Part I and Part II on Friday; then yesterday with Mike Silva at New York Baseball Digest for his Podcast. The link is here: NYBD Podcast. Fast forward to 1 hour and 36 seconds if you quite literally can't wait to hear me.

• Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide:
  

My book is available, has been slightly marked down on Amazon and available on I-Universe in paperback and E-book. It's moving quite well it seems.

No, I'm not saying that as if I'm shocked.

Sunday Lightning 4.4.2010

• Playtime's over:

With the season about to start, here are my final pre-season predictions for the 2010 season. I'm going to repeat the division winners (in-depth analysis is available in prior postings) along with the previously published National League Award winners; and the unpublished American League Award winners; and of course, the post-season predictions and World Series winner.

• National League Playoff Teams:

NL East: New York Mets

NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals

NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers

Wild Card Winner: San Francisco Giants

NL Playoff Predictions:

NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets

Dodgers in Five

NLDS: San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals in Four.

NLCS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals in Seven.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONS: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

• American League Playoff Teams:

AL East: New York Yankees

AL Central: Chicago White Sox

AL West: Los Angeles Angels

AL Wild Card Winner: Minnesota Twins

AL Playoff Predictions:

ALDS: Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees

Yankees in Four

ALDS: Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox

White Sox in Three

ALCS: Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees

White Sox in Seven

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONS: CHICAGO WHITE SOX

• 2010 WORLD SERIES:

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS VS CHICAGO WHITE SOX

WHITE SOX IN SEVEN

2010 WORLD SERIES WINNER: CHICAGO WHITE SOX

• National League Award Winners:

NL MVP: Jose Reyes, SS--New York Mets

I made the selection before Reyes had the thyroid issue and as he was slated to bat third in the Mets lineup. Now, he's scheduled to be back by next week and it's still undetermined where he's going to bat. I'll stick with the pick in the hopes that something similar to last year happens as I picked Alex Rodriguez; ARod got hurt; and the Yankees won the World Series.

Scoffing at the thought that Reyes is an MVP candidate is absurd; if he's healthy, he's still one of the most dynamic players in all of baseball and is absolutely a viable MVP candidate.

NL Cy Young Award: Clayton Kershaw, LHP--Los Angeles Dodgers

The shackles are being removed from Kershaw and he's primed to explode into mega-star status. I'm talking about 20+ wins, and close to 300 strikeouts.

With a power fastball and devastating curve, Kershaw has the stuff; poise; and charisma to blow up the National League.

NL Rookie of the Year: Madison Bumgarner, LHP--San Francisco Giants

Picking the Rookie of the Year is always a guess more than any other award and Bumgarner ruined my aesthetic by getting rocked in spring training and sent to the minors. Given how he devastated the minor leagues on the way up, a little adversity won't hurt him and he'll be heard from this season.

NL Manager of the Year: Jerry Manuel, New York Mets

If the Mets play poorly, Manuel will get the blame and be fired; presumably along with GM Omar Minaya. If they play well, Manuel will get the credit for "overachieving" with a team that, if you look at their roster objectively, is quite formidable if they're healthy.

• American League Award Winners:

AL MVP: Joe Mauer, C--Minnesota Twins

This is a bit of a cop out pick given how superlative Mauer is; how important he is to the Twins. A Gold Glove catcher; who can do everything at the plate; and is a leader in the clubhouse; looking to have a big year just as he signed a long-term contract extension. But Mauer is a hitting machine; and I'm waiting for him to hit for more power and contend for the Triple Crown.

AL Cy Young Award: Jake Peavy, RHP--Chicago White Sox

With Peavy's horrible and stressful motion, the injury risk is always a factor; but he's looked healthy and terrific this spring and, playing on a legitimate title contender, is a possible Triple Crown pitching winner. When he's on and healthy, Peavy is devastating and he'll lead the White Sox with his power stuff.

AL Rookie of the Year: Scott Sizemore, 2B--Detroit Tigers

Sizemore is getting a chance to play with the departure of Placido Polanco and has put up fine numbers in the minor leagues. That's not always the best way to gauge a player of course, but Sizemore is a solid pick for the award.

AL Manager of the Year: Ozzie Guillen--Chicago White Sox

Amid all the lunacy; controversy; and indecipherable stream of consciousness rants, it's easily lost on what a good manager Ozzie Guillen is strategically. He creates messes himself with his outspoken nature, but the White Sox are a legitimate title contender and part of the reason is Guillen.

• The Athletics/Jack Cust merry-go-round:

Billy Beane is losing it.

First he turns the success of a first round, journeyman bust like Jack Cust (poetry!!!) into a useful power hitter from whom at least you know you're going to get power and walks, if a load of strikeouts and a horrific glove; then it becomes a negative as he should've traded Cust at his high value when he was clearing out the house in the past several years.

After that, he non-tenders Cust this past off-season; re-signs him at a lower rate rather than go after the more useful Jim Thome; and now, the A's have designated Cust for assignment with the apparent intent of trying to use some combination of Travis Buck, Jake Fox and....Eric Chavez (for as long as his body stays patched together----good luck) as the DH.

What a mess. Cust will probably clear waivers, but add this to the list of black marks against Billy Beane as he becomes more and more human as the Moneyball hangover wears off.

• ESPN hires Curt Schilling as an analyst:

Naturally, someone as outspoken and controversial (and with as many ridiculous things to say as Curt Schlling on any and all subjects) would be met with derision; but I think it's a great idea. Along with the hiring of the explosive and temperamental J.P. Ricciardi, ESPN has some people that are going to say something rather than spout the company line and worry about the feelings of friends and acquaintances in baseball.

I think it's great.

No matter whether you agree with what they say, like or dislike them personally for team allegiance reasons or whatever else, you have to admit when someone's interesting and willing to speak out regardless of consequences and that is what Schilling does.

• Viewer Mail 4.4.2010:

Gabriel (Capo) writes RE the Blue Jays, Curt Schilling and me:

My hopes are on the Blue Jays being not that bad.

On the Schilling alliance, I'd advise against it. See how things worked out for the Republic once they gave Palpatine absolute powers. Then again, maybe YOU are Palpatine.

The Blue Jays won't be that bad.

Don't you trust the leader of the Family, Gabriel, to do what's best? At the very least, under Emperor Palpatine (and me) things are efficient!

Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes RE the Yankees and Red Sox:

All I can say is I sure do like your prediction for the Yankees. I see the Red Sox as more of a threat than you do, but that could just be my normal paranoia.

Trust me, I understand paranoia.

I'm a Mets fan and a borderline psychotic (or so I'm told).

PairFace writes RE the Mets, the Phillies and me in a redacted comment (click here to get the whole thing):

Sorry fanboy, I have to call it like I see it. If you noticed, I haven't said one word about the Phils. But since you mentioned them, they are coming off 2 NL pennants, and added the most dominant RH starter in baseball. I don't see how they drop to 82 wins anymore than I see the Mets rising to 91. You cite the bullpen as a problem. But the bullpen was a problem last year (17 blown saves) and they still won 93 games and went to the World Series.

As for Reyes...you can't win the MVP from the DL. He'll need rehab time. And once he's back in the lineup, it will take some time to get into playing shape. That could run into May. How far will he be behind the other MVP candidates at that point?

Being a Mets fan, I would understand if you wanted to throw your team a bone by picking ONE of those things to happen. But for a team that's coming into the season already banged up, having all kinds of questions with starting pitchers not named Santana, and a front office that is completely inept from the ownership down, there's simply NO WAY a sane person could come to the conclusions you did, even if you turn out to be right.

I'm getting a Mark David Chapman vibe from you especially considering you're on my sites with such a frequency that it's bordering on disturbing.

You can call me names. I really don't care. It reflects on you and I don't have to resort to such things to bat down the shoddy and scattershot arguments you present. I have no idea what the "pairface" name implies, but if the second part of the "pair" is smarter than you, I suggest you call on him (or her).

You call it like you see it. The problem is that you don't know what you're talking about. The way to attack and off-season is to either bolster strengths or address weaknesses. The Phillies did neither. Their bullpen is worse than it was last year. Way worse. The back of the rotation is also worse. The lineup is similar aside from Jayson Werth----under no circumstances----being able to repeat last season's career year. The Halladay trade was a lateral move that depleted the farm system even further.

Reyes will be back by the weekend. Where are you getting May? And have you ever heard of Joe Mauer? (Missed the first month of 2009, won the MVP.) C.C. Sabathia? (Traded to the Brewers at mid-season, 2008, and contended for the CYA.) Chris Carpenter? (Missed the first month of last season, finished 2nd in the NL CYA voting.) Rick Sutcliffe? (Traded to the Cubs at mid-season 1984 and won the CYA.)

I find it funny that you're trying to hedge your bets in such a transparent way by playing both sides (I see the "pairface" reference now) and leaving wiggle room if I happen to be right by calling me insane. It'd be clever if it wasn't so obvious and wasn't coming from you. Dismiss me if I'm right by calling me crazy or lucky; that's the last vestiges of the inept and defeated.

This is the last comment I answer from you on my site. You wanna have a go at me? You do it on Twitter in front of a live audience in which you'll learn why I've acquired the reputation I have to the point that no one wants to step into the ring with me. I'll be more than happy to use you as my punching bag for the day if you muster up the courage.

Anytime, anyplace.

And in any context, if you catch my meaning.

• The Prince on the Podcasts:

On Friday, I was a guest with Sal at SportsFanBuzz. The Podcast links are available here---- Part I and Part II.

Also, earlier this morning, I was a guest with Mike Silva at New York Baseball Digest for his Podcast. The link is here: NYBD Podcast. Now, you can listen to the whole thing or click on the I-Tunes icon at the bottom of the player and fast forward to about 1 hour, 36 minutes in where you can experience the magnitude of me.

• Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide:

The book is available on Amazon and I-Universe in paperback and E-book.

2010 American League East Preview

• This is the BIG one:

The American League East is where all the drama/storylines/propaganda are. Home to the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, it's expected to be a battle down to the wire in which only two of the three "powerhouses" will make the playoffs.

I don't see it that way.

Not even close.

American League East:

1. New York Yankees----Wins-100; Losses-62; GB ---
2. Boston Red Sox----Wins-89; Losses-74; GB-11.5
3. Tampa Bay Rays----Wins-79; Losses-83; GB-21
4. Baltimore Orioles----Wins-77; Losses-85; GB-23
5. Toronto Blue Jays----Wins-70; Losses-92; GB-30

New York Yankees:

Even with the controversy that Alex Rodriguez inevitably attracts; the debate about Joba Chamberlain's role; the burning question of who's going to be the all-important long-reliever; the usual atmosphere that follows the Yankees around, it's been less chaotic around the Yankees than it's been in the past. Much of that is due to GM Brian Cashman taking control of the entire organization from top-to-bottom.

You can ignore the usual stuff that emanates from the most famous team in sports; it's easily forgotten how well-constructed they are. Yes, they do still have an issue with the debate about Chamberlain; with Cashman's penchant for misjudging pitching; with manager Joe Girardi's strategic gaffes; the Derek Jeter/Mariano Rivera contract situations; and of course, ARod and the tornado that's always surrounding him no matter what he does----none of that matters.

The Yankees have a deep starting rotation; with Chamberlain in the bullpen where he belongs, a devastating bullpen; a star-laden and relentless lineup; and the wiggle room to improve during the season if they need to. (Keep an eye on David DeJesus from the Royals if the Yankees need an outfielder.)

They're not just better than the Red Sox and Rays, they're way better than the Red Sox and Rays and they're going to roll to another division title easily. The only question will be whether they're going to have the opportunity to bounce the Red Sox from the playoffs entirely on the last weekend of the season.

Boston Red Sox:

Pitching and defense?

The Red Sox?

After making the conscious decision to let Jason Bay walk away (and naturally, rip him apart on the way out the door----I wonder if, when Bay retires, they'll invite him back as they did Nomar Garciaparra to retire as a Red Sox in a financially fueled publicity stunt), the Red Sox chose to abandon their standard of finding hitters who have power and going the defense and pitching route.

In signing Adrian Beltre; Marco Scutaro; Mike Cameron; and John Lackey, the Red Sox have gone from one extreme to the other.

And it's not going to work.

This strikes me as another stat-fueled attempt to re-invent the wheel just as they tried to do with the "closer-by-committee" in 2003. We saw how well that worked.

The endgame of all this is baffling. Even with a very good top three in the starting rotation of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Lackey, the Red Sox are still short at the back end with a youngster, Clay Buchholz; the train wreck Daisuke Matsuzaka; and the falling apart Tim Wakefield.

It's easy to say the Red Sox will have the prospects to go out and get a bat as the season moves along, but that was the same opinion in 2006 when they did absolutely nothing and watched helplessly as the season collapsed around them. Will they panic if they're 8 games behind the Yankees in June and make a bold move for the power bat they need in Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder? Will the competition for one of those bats shut them out?

We'll know quickly whether this strategy is going to work; and the Red Sox penchant for desperation as a rightfully concerned fan base explodes may still be too little, too late with rough competition from the rest of the American League.

Tampa Bay Rays:

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

A year ago at this time, all we heard was how the Rays were in the stratosphere with the Yankees and Red Sox and were there to stay; that there were three "championship-level teams" in the AL East; that the battle for the playoffs would come down to those three teams and the winner would be a great bet to win the whole thing.

Then they started playing.

It should've been a red flag that everything----everything----went right for the Rays in 2008; such a sequence of events wasn't just unlikely to happen again, it was impossible.

And it didn't happen again.

All the "experts" had the Rays at the top of the division with 90+ wins.

I had them at 82.

They won 84.

Joe Maddon's absent-minded professor routine is wearing thin. The inmates are running the asylum; they're going to lose Carl Crawford at the end of the year; they have giant pitching questions; and aren't only behind the Yankees and Red Sox, but also the White Sox, Twins, Angels and maybe even the Mariners and Rangers.

They're going to have to make some decisive and aggressive maneuvers this year including trading Crawford, Carlos Pena and some of their bullpen components. If they don't get off to a good start, it could happen quickly and it might be the best thing for them.

Baltimore Orioles:

The most amazing thing that Andy MacPhail's been able to accomplish since taking over the organization wasn't a smart trade or signing; nor was it his astute drafting; it was convincing impetuous owner Peter Angelos to let him rebuild the team correctly rather than continuously throw money at the problems and fail again and again.

The Orioles have brought in solid veterans to teach their impressive array of youngsters how to behave and win. Kevin Millwood; Ty Wigginton; Miguel Tejada; and Garrett Atkins are all going to foment the growth of Nick Markakis; Adam Jones; Matt Wieters and the young pitchers.

I think they're going to need a managerial change from Dave Trembley to take the next step, but the Orioles have reason for optimism and don't be surprised at the end of the season to see them tied or even ahead of the Rays.

Things are looking up in Baltimore.

Toronto Blue Jays:

After excising the growing disaster that was J.P. Ricciardi, new GM Alex Anthopolous did quite well in trading Roy Halladay.

Many have said that the Blue Jays are going to lose close to 100 games. With that young pitching, I don't see how that's possible. The acquisition of Brandon Morrow was a bold move that is going to pay dividends once they rebuild his confidence and stick him in the starting rotation where he belongs. Their lineup still has holes; but there's plenty of talent, even with the space cadet-style (Edwin Encarnacion); and dead contracts (Vernon Wells).

They are going to need to bring in a younger manager to steer the ship. In fact, I don't know why they didn't get rid of Cito Gaston after last year when it was clear they were starting over again. Aside from that, the Blue Jays are on the right track; and the first step back into contention was getting rid of Ricciardi.

The Blue Jays aren't going to be as bad as everyone thinks.

• Viewer Mail 4.3.2010:

Jeff (Acting Boss) at Red State Blue State writes RE the proposed alliance between me and Curt Schilling:

Okay, Prince, as Street Boss, I have no choice but to STRONGLY persuade you to stay far, far away from Schilling. I don't wanna be digging a ditch in the middle of the night wondering if I should keep part of a bloody sock as a memento for future doting.

Jane Heller (consigliere) at Confessions of a She-Fan also writes RE me and Curt:

I'm with Jeff on Schilling. I don't care if you agree with him about Cliff Lee. You will not be friends with him - ever! Do you hear me? As for the AL Central, I think the Twins are that division's Angels. They always find a way...

And you thought it was easy being a Boss?

Where do I go?

Do I do what's best for my Family, going with my instincts and possibly forging a relationship that could bring my growing empire crashing to the ground even though I know, instinctively, that it would be a mutually advantageous relationship? Or do I take the advice of my most trusted and loyal confidantes?

I'll have to thing long and hard about this before moving forward.

Long and hard...

PairFace writes RE my predictions and my book:

"In-depth" analysis??? OK. Please indulge me here, and give me a reason JOSE REYES is going to win the NL MVP...other than he plays for your favorite team. I don't think even Reyes himself knows how many games he's going to play this year, and he didn't play much last year. Yet he's going to move past Pujols...past Howard...past Fielder...past a lot of people to claim that award.

I'm sorry, but moving the Mets to the top of the division, picking Reyes as NL MVP, and Jerry Manuel as MoY isn't "ruthless"...it's being a Met fanboy.

And if your book is anything like your free samples...I'll pass. Good luck with that.

Because of one injury-plagued season, one of the most talented players in baseball is somehow on a level with a mediocre entry level player who has no upside nor potential to contend for the MVP?

Jose Reyes?

At age 27 and one of the best all-around players in the game from 2005-2008, Reyes is now a laughingstock because he got hurt? It seems a certain declining shortstop that you may be familiar with did exactly what you suggest is utterly impossible as recently as 2007----Jimmy Rollins----in winning the MVP over the players you toss out there.

Whether or not you consider Jerry Manuel a good or bad manager, if the club turns things around, he's on the hook for credit or blame.

There's only one way to determine which of us is right and that's going to be what happens during the season. If attacking me makes you feel better about the drastic and soon-to-be catastrophic errors the Phillies made this winter, feel free to come after me to your heart's content.

You've got it exactly right. You figured it all out. I'm a Mets fanboy. That's why I picked them to miss the playoffs last season; to lose in the playoffs in 2007 and 2008 when they were the consensus World Series favorite from all the "experts".

You don't need to read what I have to say in full. Since you have neither the desire nor the capacity to take everything I say in its proper context, it's just as well if you don't read it.

Your argument is so weak and pockmarked with holes, I'm almost embarrassed for you; it's packed with specious reasoning, senseless, haphazard shots, wildly off the mark; and rife with team-related vitriol. Bask in the Phillies success over the past three years. Your arrogance, pomposity, ignorance and self-justifying twisting of facts is right in line with your current favorite team from the front office on down.

Joe at Statistician Magician writes RE me:

Well, Paul. You rip apart the Red Sox more than you rip apart the Mets. So you are not completely unbiased.

Did you buy my book yet, Joe?

Peter writes RE the AL Central and Curt Schilling:

I think I have the same for the AL Central except I have the Indians over the Royals... as if those two will matter anyway.. as for Schilling, be careful, he is a nice enough guy, but will sell you out and crucify you for a better deal given the chance.... and he has no animosity towards the Phillies so anything he would say against them must be believable.

The Indians are going to be horrific; far worse than the Royals.

I think if there was any alliance between myself and Schilling, we'd both be prepared for a battle to the death at a moment's notice and one would never turn his back on the other.

It's a battle that I'd win.

Schilling says some loony stuff. Thing is, in this case regarding the Phillies, he happens to be right.

• Taking over the media, step-by-step:

You may have missed it, but I'll remind everyone again and again; and again; and again...

Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide:

My book is available and it's not a "preview"; it's a guide, valuable throughout the whole season. Despite criticism by those who have an agenda (see above), it's aboveboard and evenhanded. Available on Amazon and I-Universe in paperback and E-book.

Check it out; it'll blow your mind.

The Prince on the Podcast:

Yesterday, I was a guest with Sal at SportsFanBuzz previewing the entire season from top-to-bottom. It's a 2-part Podcast in which you can hear my voice which has been repeatedly described as "sexy" or "raspy sexy" or "calmly frightening" and "borderline psychotic".

I bring the party with me.

Here are the links to Part I and Part II.

It's Easter and this is your first class ticket to the Resurrection.

Everything is proceeding just as I have foreseen....

2010 American League Central Preview

• This quality gap between the AL Divisions is not that wide:

The American League Central has two very tough, deep and well-run teams with the White Sox and Twins; another team with the talent to cause trouble in the Tigers; a hideously run Royals club that has ability; and a punching bag in the Indians.

Let's dig deep, Mr. Bond.

American League Central

1. Chicago White Sox----Wins-94; Losses-68; GB ---
2. Minnesota Twins----Wins-90; Losses-73; GB-4.5
3. Detroit Tigers----Wins-80; Losses-82; GB-14
4. Kansas City Royals----Wins-74; Losses-88; GB-20
5. Cleveland Indians----Wins-63; Losses-99; GB-31
   

* Denoted Predicted Wild Card Winner

Chicago White Sox:

Overlook the White Sox at your own risk.

I don't think people realize how good this team really is. How deep they are; how well-run they are; and how fearless and brilliant GM Kenny Williams is when making decisions.

Amid all the controversy that surrounds manager Ozzie Guillen, it's easily forgotten what an excellent strategic manager he is. More than any other team, the White Sox clubhouse is rife with players like A.J. Pierzynski who rankle everyone; the whole place appears to feed off the energy of controversy and perceived in-fighting.

None of that would matter if the talent level wasn't what it is.

The keys to the entire White Sox season are Jake Peavy and Carlos Quentin. If Peavy is healthy----and he's shown no reason to disbelieve that he is and ready to have a monster season----the White Sox are a legitimate World Series threat.

Their offense could be short in certain spots, but that would be mitigated by a healthy Quentin hitting as he did in 2008 when he was an MVP candidate.

The starting pitching is six deep; the bullpen is rife with power arms; they're fiery and run by a James Bond villain in Williams and his psychotic assistant in Guillen.

Ignore them. See what happens.

Minnesota Twins:

Despite the loss of Joe Nathan, the Twins are also a serious contender. The under-the-radar additions of veteran bats Jim Thome; Orlando Hudson; and J.J. Hardy bolster an already strong lineup; they have a bunch of mid-rotation starters permeating their rotation, but they deploy their relievers effectively and play the game with great fundamentals.

They're aggressive in-season trying to improve, so if needed, they'll go out and get a closer of the Heath Bell variety. What I'd do if I were the Twins is trust Matt Guerrier as the closer, but for now, they're going with the committee system until everything shakes out.

Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are a devastating 1-2 punch in the lineup and they have bats like Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel among others to bash as well. I'm waiting for the freshly extended Mauer to begin turning on inside pitches to hit more homers. If he does, he's a threat to win the Triple Crown. As it is, I think he'll win another MVP.

The Twins will be there in the end, fighting for a playoff spot even with a patched together closer situation.

Detroit Tigers:

Horrible contracts the Tigers have the Tigers suspended in limbo. The got rid of Nate Robertson's $10 million by dealing him to the Marlins----but they paid almost all of it. They're trapped with declining veterans Carlos Guillen; Magglio Ordonez; Jeremy Bonderman; Dontrelle Willis; et al. Now they're trying to incorporate youngsters Austin Jackson; Max Scherzer; and Scott Sizemore into a somewhat weak lineup. They also signed Johnny Damon to play left field.

There's talent in Detroit, but until they're able to extricate themselves from the massive sunk costs, they're mediocre, period. The enthusiasm with Willis's solid spring, I fear, is going to come apart as soon as the season starts. Joel Zumaya is again lighting up the radar guns with his 102 mph fastballs, but how long before he gets hurt again?

Sometimes it's better for things to come apart completely than it is to flounder along somewhere in the middle, unsure of where to go and what to do. That's where the Tigers are. Mediocrity, hovering around .500.

Kansas City Royals:

The Royals have one of the best pitchers in baseball----Zack Greinke; a great closer----Joakim Soria; some background talent in Alex Gordon; Billy Butler; Luke Hochevar; and David DeJesus; but they're run terribly by an overmatched combination of GM Dayton Moore and manager Trey Hillman and aren't going to go anywhere until they import some competence into their operation.

Even with the shabbiness in management, the Royals actually have enough talent to come close to .500 if everything goes exactly right with Hochevar developing; Kyle Davies pitching well; and Greinke repeating his performance from last season. They have some bats as well; but it's hard to see them being anything more than what they were last year and falling to the lower rung of the division again in a hazardous American League.

Cleveland Indians:

All you need do is look at the "big" acquisitions the Indians made this past off-season and you'll be able to gauge where things are headed.

Their big imports were Russell Branyan and Mike Redmond.

Yah.

The oft-injured Branyan fits right in with Travis Hafner as a productive player who could end up on the sidelines for extended periods of time at any second (he's already on the DL with a back problem).

The starting rotation is loaded with soft-tossers (Aaron Laffey, David Huff); injury-returnees (Jake Westbrook); and mental cases (Fausto Carmona). A bad bullpen was made worse (or maybe not, which is an issue in and of itself) when Kerry Wood went on the disabled list. The lineup has some talent, but the Yankees wouldn't be able to make up for that pitching staff; forget the Indians.

There are many who are looking at this team as a sleeper.

Sleeper for what?

They're atrocious and are going to lose close to 100 games.

• An alliance? Could the world handle this?
  

Talk about a combination of evil ripe for destruction for everything in its path.

It seems that a loquacious former Red Sox star is in total agreement with me about a certain subject that I hammer at repeatedly.

Yes.

Curt Schilling and I are on the exact same page, saying the same things about the Phillies trade of Cliff Lee to the Mariners.

In this posting on Big League Stew, Schilling says the following:

"I think trading Cliff Lee was the stupidest thing they've ever done, and they didn't have to," Schilling said. "They didn't have to do it. It was a stupid, stupid move. They could've had a World Series berth locked up right now with those two guys at the top of their rotation."

This is almost verbatim to the things I've said immediately upon the completion of the trade.

Perhaps I should approach Schilling about an alliance.

Yes. An alliance. Of course, once world domination was complete, we'd likely attack one another. (I'd win.) But it's all to the greater good, my friends. All to the greater good.

• Viewer Mail 4.2.2010:

Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes RE the AL West:

Yup. The Angels will be there again (Matsui will do his usual 100 RBI thing). The Mariners were very aggressive in the off-season, but it won't be enough.

I don't understand those that underestimate the Angels given their history over the past ten years. It's to their own peril.

The Mariners did a lot of "stuff", but didn't appear to improve anywhere aside from their rotation (and it was a massive improvement with Cliff Lee); but hinging one's hopes on Milton Bradley is a foundation built on quicksand.

Peter at Outside The Phillies Looking In writes RE Cliff Lee, the Phillies and me:

I just think your like a dog with a bone on the Cliff Lee saga, maybe it's time to bury it till later when you need to feed again.

I have to keep banging away at these themes so when people continue agreeing with me long after the fact, that it's understood that I was the one who was so outspoken and adamant about it first. It's not done with an overt agenda to be contrary; I believe with every fiber that it was a gaffe that they're going to pay for in spades.

PairFace writes RE my NL East/NL MVP predictions:

Tough to not call you biased when you:

A) Identify yourself as a Mets fan.
B) Pick the Mets to win the division, coming off last year.
C) Pick Reyes, who hasn't played in nearly a year, as NL MVP
and
D) Pick Jerry Manuel, who's probably sitting in the hottest seat in the NL right now, as NL MoY.

The Mets are a mess, and will be missing 3 starters in their lineup on Opening Day. Pelfrey and Perez just demoted, and KROD now MIA.

Any accusations of bias or "homerism" are justified, imo.

BTW, I also have the Angels in the AL West. At least we agree on something.

So, based on your fractured logic, I'm supposed to:

A) Hide my team allegiance based on a surreptitious attempt to appear objective to those who are unfamiliar with my work.

B) Make my picks due to what I feel will be more readily received and accepted; and ignore my own in-depth analysis (which you've clearly disregarded) in the hopes that I won't be attacked as a "homer" or fool.

C) Concern myself with what others are going to think and say about what I write.

I make my judgments and calls not by personal feelings, but on cold-blooded and ruthless analysis, like them or not.

No offense, but I couldn't care less whether you or anyone agree or disagree with me about the Angels, Mets, Phillies or whoever. We'll know by October who was right or wrong. Until then, attacking me without context or having read me regularly is the epitome of ignorance and that's on you.

• Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide:

Please check out and maybe purchase my book, Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide available on Amazon and I-Universe. It's good for what ails 'ya!

2010 American League West Preview

• Let's find some context:

I'm just curious, since I was under such relentless attack for picking the Mets in the NL East due to some misinformed allegation of bias, why are the stat zombies not under similar scrutiny for their annual selection of the Moneyball Athletics as their AL West winner? Between the two of us----me and the zombies----I think they have far more reason to be examined with the jaundiced eye of an agenda than I do.

Let's look at the AL West.

American League West

1. Los Angeles Angels----Wins-92; Losses-70; GB ---
2. Seattle Mariners----Wins-86; Losses-76; GB-6
3. Texas Rangers----Wins-85; Losses-77; GB-7
4. Oakland Athletics----Wins-73-Losses-89; 19
   

Los Angeles Angels:

Every year the Angels are underestimated.

Every year they rise to the top of the AL West.

As foolish as it seems to repeatedly do the same thing over and over again, it's still going on. The Angels are widely expected to fall to the bottom of the division. Presumably, the losses of Chone Figgins, John Lackey and Vladimir Guerrero are so devastating that they won't be able to compete.

I don't see it.

As always, the Angels run the club based on a set of principles they don't deviate from. They have a well-balanced lineup; a deep pitching staff from top-to-bottom and spend money on pitching. The signing of Joel Pineiro to replace Lackey, in retrospect, will be seen as one of the smartest and most economical moves of the off-season. Pineiro will slide seamlessly into the Angels way of doing things and continue the trend he showed with the Cardinals of pitching to contact and going deeply into games.

Hideki Matsui was signed to replace the declining Guerrero and is a clutch player and solid clubhouse guy. (One thing I don't get is why the Angels are insisting on giving Matsui a glove at all; let alone trying to play him in the outfield.)

With manager Mike Scioscia calmly steering the ship, the Angels are always a threat; always competitive not matter what happens, injuries or unspeakable tragedies. In addition to that, they're always ready to make an aggressive trade to bolster their club as they did with Scott Kazmir last season. If Carl Crawford ends up on the market, you can bet the Angels will be neck deep in trying to get the Rays left fielder.

The cream rises to the top and that's what's going to happen with the Angels again in 2010.

Seattle Mariners:

GM Jack Zduriencik is the "genius" of the moment.

Not to diminish the work Zduriencik has done, but Cliff Lee basically fell into his lap due to the Phillies' idiocy. He's banking on defense and pitching trumping the lack of a big power bat; he's hoping Milton Bradley behaves himself and produces; and that the expensive signing of Chone Figgins adds to the run scoring punch sans power.

The Mariners have a great defense, but I don't see how they can contend with Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Sweeney as their primary DH combination. It's possible that pressure from above forced Zduriencik to bring back Griffey; the Mariners would be a serious playoff contender if they'd signed Jim Thome instead.

As it is, with Zduriencik's aggressiveness, the Mariners will be looking for offense for the entire season; if they get it and Lee and Felix Hernandez are healthy; if the defense saves as many runs as it's expected to; if the bullpen performas as it did last season; and the back of the rotation is serviecable, they're in the mix for the playoffs.

I don't see it happening. They'll hang around contention and fall late due to their holes.

Texas Rangers:

After rebuilding the club and his reputation by crafting one of the most productive minor league systems in baseball and making some brilliant trades, GM Jon Daniels had a strange off-season. Replacing Kevin Millwood (whom he gave away to the Orioles) with the always-injured Rich Harden is a head-scratcher. Now, they've taken a reliever, C.J. Wilson, and inserted him into the starting rotation.

The offense is always going to be solid with their power bats; it's a good bet that Vladimir Guerrero will experience a renaissance playing in the hitter's heaven of Rangers Ballpark; and they always play hard; but the Ron Washington cocaine controversy and the repeated injuries to Josh Hamilton are hanging over the club's collective heads.

The Rangers organization is loaded with prospects, but the lack of starting pitching depth and the repeated off-field issues will relegate them to the outskirts of contention with a bright future if they make the right decision and get rid of Washington.

Oakland Athletics:

Again in certain circles, the Billy Beane "brilliance" is being credited for the Athletics being in contention. They have a load of young pitching and splurged to bring in Ben Sheets to anchor the rotation. It was part of a very questionable off-season for the Athletics in which it appeared as if Beane was throwing things together like a weird amalgam in the hopes that it would come out looking good.

Are they a defense first team with Coco Crisp in center field?

Are they a two fisted bashing team with Jack Cust?

Are they relying on pitching with the oft-injured Sheets and a bunch of talented youngsters who could still experience growing pains?

It strikes of desperation backed up by out-of-context stats.

The bloom is off the Moneyball rose and this is going to be the final straw for Billy Beane. The Athletics will fall to last place and Beane will depart Oakland once and for all.

E=MC^2 genius; and by my admittedly rudimentary calculations, that comes to...73-89.

• Viewer Mail 4.1.2010:

Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes RE the NL East:

Forgive me, but I really think the Phillies will be tough to beat, barring major injuries.

Of course you're forgiven.

I state my case clearly. The thing I find hysterical is the amount of ridicule I'm receiving by those who are looking at the projected standings, calling me a "Mets blogger/apologist" without knowing anything about my writing or me at all.

We'll see who's right in hindsight and I stick by my picks.

Jeff (Acting Boss) at Red State Blue State writes RE the NL East:

Hmmm. I dunno. I saw the Mets play the Redbirds in that spring training game yesterday. Gary Matthews running the bases was scary... so was Daniel Murphy. Reminded me of last year with all the boneheaded mishaps. And the pitching was downright awful (Igarashi anyone? Yikes!). Just one meaningless spring training game, I know, but it's the sort of thing that gets stuck in one's head... that and Johan isn't blowing people away like he used to.

That all being said, I trust ya. So let's see how this thang goes.

I don't put much stock in spring training as long as most everyone stays healthy (and as ruthless as it sounds, the team's probably better off without Daniel Murphy and with Mike Jacobs playing first base). We'll see what happens when the games count. It's routinely been unwise to bet against my gut feelings.

Peter at Outside The Phillies Looking In writes RE the NL East:

I agree unbiased assessments are possible from die-hard fans, some get it right and some get it wrong, I guess come October we'll see who's wrong and who's right.. Reyes as MVP though, that is a bit out there, even before the Thy..thingy.

I wrote it before that and the same thing happened with Alex Rodriguez last year as I picked him for the MVP and he got hurt immediately thereafter. Like I said yesterday, hopefully it's a good omen since the Yankees won the World Series.

I take offense when someone says I'm being a "homer". It diminishes everything I've tried to do and built with my work. Then, when I'm right a substantial number call me "lucky"; it's best to ignore them and let things play out.

• Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide:

My book, with in depth analysis of all 30 teams and predictions for the upcoming season, is available on Amazon and I-Universe. It's useful all season long and I'm a pretty good writer. So I'm told.