The Showalter Rules

• The Orioles will turn around under Buck Showalter:

In Peter Angelos's time as Orioles owner, he's had one proven, strong-willed manager who would win regardless of talent level----Davey Johnson; it's no coincidence that the only time the Orioles had any sustained success under Angelos's ownership, despite his willingness to spend money, was with Johnson as manager.

Apart from Johnson, the managers were respected retreads who would win with a superior team, but not with his decisions often making the difference (Mike Hargrove); overwhelmed pitching coaches not suited for managing (Ray Miller); and people with solid resumes who plainly and simply didn't work out (Lee Mazzilli, Sam Perlozzo and Dave Trembley).

All that has changed with the hiring of Buck Showalter as manager.

The Orioles had done all the right things in trying to rebuild from the mess created by throwing money at their problems and shunning the farm system. GM Andy MacPhail was allowed to start over organically with short-term, hole-filling free agents and youth from their system. They dumped veterans for prospect-filled packages and appeared to be on the verge of a breakthrough in 2010.

But it didn't work.

To this day, I believe that had Mike Gonzalez converted save opportunities against the Rays on opening day and against the Blue Jays three days later, it could've gone far differently for the Orioles; Gonzalez's blown saves set the tone for a young club that it was going to be the same thing again. And it has been.

From a club that had a load of young pitching and bats ready to incrementally improve in the big leagues, they've again become a laughingstock; veteran acquisitions that made sense in Kevin Millwood, Garrett Atkins and Miguel Tejada haven't worked; burgeoning young talents Adam Jones, Matt Wieters and Brad Bergesen have taken several steps back; and they found themselves having to do something drastic to try and right the ship. That something is hiring Showalter.

Is he the cure to all ills in the organization? Are the Orioles the ridiculous and hopeless entity that the simplistic and ill-informed have suggested?

No and no.

But Showalter is the man who will walk into the Orioles clubhouse and demand accountability and mete out discipline. He's going to have a lot of say-so with the constitution of the club and weed out players who are not part of the solution. Exemplifying the lack of respect inherent in the organization was center fielder Adam Jones who, when it was suggested that he play more shallow to prevent so many balls from bouncing in front of him responded by saying, "I'll think about it".

If Jones tries his "I'll think about it" trick with Showalter, he'll be allowed to think about it....at Triple A Norfolk.

Showalter has a history of turning around the moribund (the Yankees and Rangers) and building (the Diamondbacks). That comes from talent recognition; a team concept; and putting his clubs in the right mental and physical state to win. One would assume that, in his fourth go-round as a manager, Showalter will ease up on the main criticism of him in his prior stops----he's an anal retentive, micro-managing, paranoid nuisance.

It's necessary to get the youngsters on the same page and discipline them, but Showalter goes a little far with the dictates on how players have to wear their socks and the like. That won't work with a veteran player, so Showalter has to get the remaining veterans like Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis on his side so they can be a conduit to the rest of the club. And I believe he will.

Strategically, Showalter is brilliant and fearless; it's all about team and considering the condition of the Orioles and that they're almost entirely made up of young players and few "star" level veterans, he's in a similar spot as he was with the Diamondbacks when he was hired as their manager two years before a big league club took the field. He turned them into a 100-win team in his second year.

The Orioles have enough talent to make a leap from wherever they end up this season (presumably well over 100 losses) to close to .500 next season based on nothing other than Showalter's history. Will his other history of Machiavellian scheming (not on the level of Bobby Valentine, but Machiavellian nonetheless) and grating on the nerves of his players and bosses cause another firing after three or four years? It's possible; but Showalter is smart enough to have learned from his mistakes and he has to realize that the Orioles situation is perfect for him to mold the club into what he wants and that Angelos has the money and willingness to spend it so they can get into playoff contention fast.

After a series of faceless managerial errors, the Orioles got it right----Buck Showalter is the last piece of their rebuilding puzzle and will turn them around very, very quickly.

• Chemistry is not overrated:

There's a misunderstanding of team chemistry in thinking that it means the players have to be buddies. It's not the case. Players don't have to be friends to communicate well and play together. Many times teams that have a group of players who all get along is indicative of a losing, passionless bunch that doesn't care. There's no reason to bicker because what's happening on the field doesn't matter.

Team chemistry has more to do with trust and respect, even if there's a personal dislike. Ron Cey and Steve Garvey barely spoke away from the field, but were part of the longest tenured infield (along with Davey Lopes and Bill Russell) in baseball history for the Dodgers in the 1970s and 80s.

Because they've been slumping in recent days, there are all sorts of theories floating around as to what's wrong with the Yankees. Is it Alex Rodriguez's chase for his 600th homer that's distracting the whole club? Is it shaky top-to-bottom pitching? Or are they simply slumping?

Could it be that they made a series of somewhat unnecessary maneuvers that have shaken the clubhouse into doubting itself?

The Yankees will be fine----if for no other reason than the teams chasing them haven't enough firepower to catch them for a playoff spot be it from winning the division or the Wild Card; but it can't be denied that they've been off recently. A.J. Burnett's been bad for most of the season. This can't have been unexpected by anyone who's followed Burnett's career----it's always been "ace stuff, mid-to-back of the rotation results"; at the very least he's stayed healthy while wearing pinstripes. Phil Hughes has predictably struggled since the team (again) took steps to limit his innings and got him paranoid and out of his comfort zone (sound familiar?); Andy Pettitte is hurt; and Javier Vazquez can't be trusted.

You cannot discount the factors of new additions to a harmonious clubhouse and wonder if it's affecting the mentality.

I can't believe that the Yankees front office truly thinks they're going to get any use out of Kerry Wood; and that feeling is presumably more prevalent with the players. He was available and essentially free, so why not? But a pitcher who's performed terribly and has a longstanding association with losers is not a guarantee to come into a winning clubhouse and generate good will; it's nothing personal, but on the field, Wood has been a detriment and has the potential to get far worse.

Did they need Austin Kearns? No.

Lance Berkman is a good pickup because he'll play regularly and is filling a hole in the lineup.

The belief that chemistry is overrated and meaningless is ignoring baseball history in general and Yankee history in particular. They had an All Star team from the years 2002 through 2008 under Joe Torre and Joe Girardi and the edicts of George Steinbrenner to collect expensive baubles AKA mercenaries the likes of Jason Giambi failed; it was the cohesiveness that crafted the Yankees dynasty from 1996-2000. It can't be lost on anyone that those teams never had an MVP; never had a player hit more than 30 homers; didn't have a name-dominated starting rotation and won every year because the puzzle pieces fit.

Were the teams from the non-title years better on paper than the championship teams?

Absolutely.

Did they win?

No.

Wood is a free acquisition as is Kearns; but to drop sticks of dynamite (or at the very least, stinkbombs) onto a club that didn't really need to be mucked with is a sign of unnecessary tinkering "because we can"; and it might've distracted the core of the team as they try to acclimate the newcomers into the Yankees atmosphere.

It also might've been a mistake.

• Viewer Mail 8.4.2010:

Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes RE Ozzie Guillen's rant:

I think some of the American-born ballplayers need a translator!

Players? Some of the GMs, managers and broadcasters need a translator from their crud into understandable English, but if that happened, it'd come out as: "I'm saying stuff, but not saying anything at all; it's just words, cliches and gobbledy gook coming out of my mouth because I don't know what I'm talking about, am portraying myself as an expert while doing it, and unfortunately, talking is part of my job----or my job in and of itself."

Either that or, "Whah whah whah, whahwhahahwhaahwhah!!!"-----like in Peanuts.

Jeff (Street Boss) at Red State Blue State writes RE Ozzie Guillen and Ichiro Suzuki:

I think Guillen's rant is getting the necessary attention now... but you're right in that it was dismissed early on as 'just another Ozzie rant'.

We've talked about this before on your blog, how some guys don't need a translator but still employ them so they're there as scapegoats when the player doesn't feel like talking (ahem, ICHIRO)... and that annoys the hell outta me.

It's not only Ichiro who pulls that, Vladimir Guerrero speaks English too and doesn't speak to the press; unlike Ichiro, Guerrero is a team-oriented player. I've had enough of people referencing cultural differences as to why Ichiro doesn't speak English as if he's uncomfortable with sounding foolish; he's been here since 2001, I'm sure he'd get his point across and in a nation of immigrants, who'd care?

The Brooklyn Trolley Blogger writes RE Ozzie Guillen:

Mickey Rivers and Rickey Henderson could have used a translator.

I think Ozzie brought up a great point that has gotten dismissed outright in the past by Baseball. The Old Establishment never saw it necessary to provide such services for reasons that I don't need to get into. Baseball is much more sensitive/helpful today but not nearly enough for Ozzie. Latinos have gotten around the language because of the quantity of players on a given roster/system. Spanish Media has helped along the way. But listen to Tony Perez, Tony Oliva, Orlando Cepeda, Vada Pinson......etc and they'll tell you. Ozzie didn't say anything malicious. But sometimes the truth comes off as a little rough, especially when Ozzie makes the pitch.

You couldn't be more right about Mike the Sports Pope. I'd like to use a different word for him.

The backwards talk is what made Rickey interesting----that and Rickey referring to Rickey as Rickey repeatedly in the third person.

I'm not sure why there was such a vitriolic reaction to what Guillen said especially when his heart appeared to be in the right place in this instance; to me, this was nothing in terms of controversy.

Ah, Francesa----what will we do without him? I suppose we're learning as he takes the entire summer off. We are greater for having lost him.

Max Stevens writes RE the Mets, Jeff Francoeur and Fernando Martinez:

I hope you're right when you speculate that F-Mart will be in right field for the Mets when the club returns home from this roadie. But what do you think would be the fallout once Jason Bay comes off the DL (assuming he's not shelved for the rest of the season)? Would they try to trade Francoeur before the August 31 deadline? As much as I like Carlos Beltran, I wouldn't mind seeing him moved as well as part of a larger attempt to get younger and cheaper in the outfield.

Francoeur's homer exemplified what's exasperating and likable about him----his joy was infectious and you could see how popular he is with his teammates when he reached the dugout after hitting it; but it only happened because he didn't hack at any pitch that came his way and went to the opposite field with the outside pitch.

I have no idea what the Mets are going to do; it's only logical to have a look at F-Mart, but who knows if they will? They might wait until September call-ups and see where they are in the standings before making that kind of call.

Beltran will get through waivers and perhaps a team might be willing to make a move on him----I'd absolutely listen although it's highly unlikely he'll be traded with his free agency after 2011, the draft picks they'll get as compensation and that he'll want to have a big year to get another payday.

Francoeur could be traded.

John Seal (West Coast Spiritual Advisor) writes RE the Athletics and Ozzie Guillen:

It's been a while since I last wrote--I've been too busy paying attention to the A's pennant drive. Just wanted to chime in on Ozzie Guillen's accurate statement regarding the accommodations made for Asian players, and recommend that (if you haven't already seen it) you watch the movie Sugar. Besides being a very good film, it's also an excellent examination of this very topic. Your West Coast Spiritual Advisor says check it out!

I always take advice from my West Coast Spiritual Advisor although my spirituality sometimes eludes me and I listen to the baser instincts. It seems to work out in a mediocre, though adventurous way.

Ah, the A's. They've taken advantage of the Pirates, Orioles, Mariners and Royals to reach .500 when we both know that if they were in the AL East, they'd be ten games under; but they don't make the schedule. I'm just wondering if people are going to misinterpret or (more likely) twist their moderate success to validate what Billy Beane's done this season; I also wonder if, during Mariners-A's games if Beane and Jack Zduriencik commiserate and wonder where their "genius" has gone and how to get it back.

I wonder a lot of things.

• The Prince on the Podcast:

I was a guest with Sal at SportsFan Buzz yesterday talking about the trade deadline, Ozzie Guillen and the pennant races. Click the link above or go to the site to download it on I-Tunes. Or you can get it directly here.

• Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide:

My book is still available on Amazon, I-Universe and Barnes and Noble.com. It's available for download as an E-book here. You can also now get it for less that five bucks on BN via download here.

Flashy vs Smart

• Would the same offer have filled a bigger hole?

You can discount Roy Oswalt's first start for the Phillies; you can simultaneously discount J.A. Happ's first start for the Astros. Oswalt got batted around and Happ pitched 6 scoreless innings on Friday night. Oswalt will pitch well for the Phillies.

But after Brad Lidge's latest meltdown on Saturday in which he allowed a game-winning homer to the Nationals' Ryan Zimmerman, I have to ask the question: would the same offer that got Oswalt, or its equivalent, have netted a reliever to bolster the real hole the Phillies need to patch? And would it have been smarter to address that need rather than to trade one starting pitcher and two minor leaguers for another starting pitcher?

We can debate the deal----I probably wouldn't have traded Happ for Oswalt, but the Phillies are only paying a portion of Oswalt's salary and now have a very good (though not dominating as some have suggested) front three in the starting rotation----but could that same offer of Happ and a couple of minor leaguers have pried Joakim Soria from the Royals? Would the Phillies be better off with Soria and their current starting rotation minus Happ and Oswalt?

Lidge has proven that he's either great or horrible depending on his mental and physical state. In 2008, the Phillies wouldn't have even made the playoffs without him; in 2009, they made the playoffs in spite of him. At times, he's looked like the unstoppable force he was for most of his time with the Astros and in 2008 with the Phillies; the bite on his slider has been at its devastating best; at other times, he's appeared ready to faint on the mound.

So is it mental?

Is it physical?

Is it both?

Lidge has had lingering elbow and knee problems, but looks healthy now; so the only thing I can surmise is that his confidence is doing what it usually does----fluctuating between high and low. Every save is an adventure with him and the Phillies organization and fan base have to hold their collective breaths when he enters a game.

Oswalt doesn't fix this issue.

Mirroring the winter, the Phillies had a choice then and now. Back then, they could've kept Cliff Lee and traded for Roy Halladay, or gone for the half-measures of trading prospects for Halladay while trading Lee to replenish the minor league system. They chose the latter and I said at the time and will continue to say that it was a mistake.

Faced with a similar conundrum of a struggling, though still very dangerous team, they could've tried to repair the bullpen or made an improving maneuver for the short-term and acquired Oswalt. He did fall into their laps to some degree because the Astros had no other trading partner for his services and club owner Drayton McLane was not-so-subtly angling him to Philadelphia as a gesture for a loyal soldier in Oswalt to try and get him a championship as his career enters its twilight.

Did the Phillies inquire about Soria?

They must've.

Would Soria----who has a no-trade clause to certain clubs, including the Yankees----have agreed on a trade to Philadelphia if they're on the list? Why wouldn't he? And if he was approached and declined, I'd have to question his appetite for winning. Why stay in Kansas City when there's an opportunity to be a closer for a title contender? In that case, I wouldn't want him.

Could Happ and a moderate package of minor leaguers have gotten Soria? Possibly.

Again, this was a situation of, "Do we patch a hole or do we strengthen that which is currently serviceable?" The starting rotation would've survived without Oswalt as long as the Phillies hit and Happ's forearm injury didn't crop up again or get worse; the bullpen is not going to survive the way it's going.

Scanning the teams that are out of contention and there isn't much to choose from for relief help. The Mariners closer is David Aardsma; the Diamondbacks are currently using Aaron Heilman (although Chad Qualls would've been a cheap and worthwhile risk for the Phillies); the Orioles have Mike Gonzalez; the Blue Jays Kevin Gregg; the Indians had Kerry Wood; the Nationals weren't going to trade Matt Capps within the division; and the Pirates had Octavio Dotel.

None of the above mentioned names are an upgrade on Lidge even as he staggers along----although Dotel is probably pitching better than Lidge which is more of an indictment of Lidge than anything else.

None of these pitchers would've given the boost that Soria would.

Time will tell if the Phillies made the right decision and I don't know if they made a run at Soria and were rebuffed; but if the Royals were willing to deal Soria as they apparently are, the players the Phillies dealt to get Oswalt might done the trick and it would've been a better option to win now than Oswalt.

• Ozzie Guillen has a point:

White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen needs a translator of his own; not because of his sometimes backwards and incomprehensible English, but because when he says something that happens to be accurate, his natural honesty and abrasive manner masks what he's trying to say.

If you missed Guillen's lament that Asian players get preferential treatment in becoming assimilated or at least comfortable in North America, you get a concise recap and response in this ESPN story.

In context, it's clearly understandable why teams provide translators and the like to make Asian imports comfortable. For the most part, they're less likely to have a teammate that speaks the same language as Latin players do; in addition to that, as the NY Times said in their piece on the subject, it's in the contract for the Asian players to have a translator.

Also, a large number of the players coming over from Japan and Korea are going straight to the big leagues or to the higher levels of the minors; the investment in them is larger so it behooves teams to do everything within their power to help them succeed. Such is not the case for the Latin players who are signed as free agents, many times for nothing, and are taught as they go along.

Of course for every Jose Reyes and Bernie Williams who came over and learned English (both speak the language excellently now), there are players who can't handle the culture shock and don't have the maturity to overcome it and fulfill their potential.

Think about it: how would you function at the age of 15 if you were taken from your home and stuck in a totally foreign atmosphere not understanding a word anyone said while trying to learn and play baseball?

If it had been someone who was less of a loose cannon making these statements, they'd have been taken at face value. If Yankees bench coach Tony Pena said, it would've been accepted from a well-liked and thoughtful leader and perhaps steps would be taken to rectify the gap in education and nurturing; but because it was Guillen, it was, "Oh, Ozzie's at it again" before anyone actually took a look at what he said and its validity.

There are intelligent people in and out of baseball agreeing with Guillen's assessment; maybe now a greater undertaking will ensue to make the transition easier for young players who need the guidance a mentor can provide.

• Viewer Mail 8.3.2010:

Jeff (Street Boss) at Red State Blue State writes RE Mike Francesa and the Mets:

Ya hafta break up da core!

Hahaha.

No matter what, all eyes are on the Metropolitans. Here's to hoping they figure themselves out.

The absence of stupidity in the name of perception at the trading deadline was a great first step for the Mets. I believe they're going to stay the course----a winning course even if the naysayers don't see it.

Regarding Francesa, I only rarely watch or listen to his show and I'm not begrudging the man his vacation time, but to be away almost non-stop throughout the summer? At the trading deadline? He couldn't come in for one day? It's not like he's in Europe because he hates to fly and is one of those people who'd say, "Whaddo I wanna go dere for?" if anyone dared suggest he visit France. I'll bet he's in Saratoga; he couldn't come in for a deadline show?

It appears that his disinterest in doing his job that has borne itself out in pure laziness on the air is extending to off the air as well. Why bother anymore?

Joe writes RE Chone Figgins:

I am not a big Figgins fan, not by any means. But he will most definitely be better moving forward. In fact, he should be MUCH BETTER in his final year than he was this year. He has been atrocious so far.

Considering the accuracy in your statement of Figgins's atrocious play, he can't be much worse in the final year of his contract, so you're right about that; but do you really think a limited player like Figgins will be "good" in years 4-5 of that horrible deal? When he'll be a slowing down speed guy with some on base skills at 35? I have a hard time buying it. But the Mariners did and they're not going to be able to get rid of it anytime soon.

Speaking of Figgins, yesterday I openly wondered and came to my own Magnum P.I. investigative conclusion as to the genesis of the Figgins-to-the-Braves talk and who approached whom. Peter at Capital Avenue Club (who has some inside contacts) told me on Twitter that the Braves approached the Mariners about taking Kenshin Kawakami and the Mariners said they had to take Figgins in return and the clubs couldn't match up financially.

I was sort of right in my analysis that the Braves would not have taken the Figgins contract without it being more palatable for them, and they didn't.

The Brooklyn Trolley Blogger writes RE the Mets and Omar Minaya:

Me? Give Omar a break? I've given him every break and still do. I prefer him over most replacements I've heard so far. There's about 7kids I want on the team right now. 8 years under sole Wilpon ownership speaks for itself but let's see how they handle their present opportunity (in 2011-12). This is the very cycle I want ended...the constant harangue about the same Met issues over and over.

Here's what I think is going to happen barring a total collapse: Manuel will be replaced sooner rather than later by Bob Melvin; Fernando Martinez will be playing right field starting the next homestand (I think this will occur regardless of how this road trip goes); and Minaya will survive at least into early next year as Steve Phillips did in 2003 after Bobby Valentine's ouster.

Depending on how things go, Minaya will either remain as the GM or be fired early next season, replaced on an interim basis by John Ricco or Wayne Krivsky (unless they bring in an assistant GM to be the next guy in line) and they'll go from there. Minaya will have at least another 8-9 months before being dispatched. It's only fair.

Graham writes RE Stephen Strasburg and Ron Darling:

I think it's a little over-critical to lambaste fans who had shown up to see Strasburg. Having a general sense of your team's long-term well-being and wanting to see what you paid for in the short term are not mutually exclusive.

As for Ron Darling, this kind of comment really shouldn't be much of a surprise. This was the guy who broke his thumb -- on his pitching hand -- and tried to stay in the game. This was the guy who retired and walked away from $500,000 rather than be put on the disabled list for the first time at the end of his career. (These are anecdotes from Ron's book, the title of which escapes me at the moment.)

You raise a very interesting point about the cost-benefit paradigm of pitching mechanics. Steve Stone summed it up pretty well when reflecting on his career and his Cy Young season: "I would rather have one year of 25-7 than four years of 15-15." (Paraphrased.)

By the way -- I've just discovered your blog. It's terrific!

I totally understand where fans who were aggravated at the sight of Miguel Batista striding out to the mound when they expected and paid to see Strasburg. It's like buying tickets to Metallica and seeing Hanson come out.

With Darling----the book is called: The Complete Game: Reflections on Baseball and the Art of Pitching----I read it; it was okay; not as good as I expected----he was a tough guy, but he's also smart enough to realize in the aftermath of his comments how idiotic it would've been for the Nationals and Strasburg to take that risk. For what? To prove something? What if he really got hurt? Then what?

I'd trade greatness in a brief time for slightly above average for the long term too, as Stone suggested. It's like Joe DiMaggio said when he retired, "I no longer have it," and he didn't want to diminish his greatness by hanging on. Some think differently; Steve Carlton hung around and wanted to still pitch and tarnished his legacy with a journeyman's jaunt to the Giants, White Sox and Twins. No one is in a position to tell another person when they should quit doing what they want to do with their lives and careers even if it's obvious that they should move on.

Thanks for the compliment. The army grows!!!

• The Prince on the Podcast:

I'll be a guest with Sal at SportsFan Buzz later today and it should be posted and ready to go later on in the afternoon.

Be prepared. Be very prepared...

• Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide:

My book is still available on Amazon, I-Universe and Barnes and Noble.com. It's available for download as an E-book here. You can also now get it for less that five bucks on BN via download here.

It's still useful.

A Week From F-Mart

• Flashpoint time for the Mets:

This season has gone remarkably well considering the doom that was predicted by the shark infested waters of the media, many of whom would have liked nothing better than to see the team crumble to the depths only inhabited by the Pittsburgh Pirates. So invested were they in the Mets downfall that it became a cause célèbre in which they exercised an angry mob mentality and joined together in a gutless and arbitrary fashion to try and get the club ownership to clean house of everyone from GM Omar Minaya on down through the entire coaching staff and a large chunk of the players.

Adam Rubin hates Omar Minaya; Mike Francesa loathes David Wright; Joel Sherman despises the Mets; Michael Kay is....well, I'm not quite sure what Michael Kay is and does.

But it hasn't been that simple.

Rather than have a season in which the decisions were made for them, the team has performed brilliantly at times and looked like the worst team in baseball at others. This has been a boon and a detriment. Clarity is transient in such a circumstance. Clarity makes life easier.

Are they a team that should hesitate before dumping manager Jerry Manuel? Wait before trading marketable veterans like Pedro Feliciano? Pause prior to testing the market for Carlos Beltran and make it a prerequisite that any team that wants Beltran also has to take Luis Castillo?

Or is it time to abandon any hope that Jeff Francoeur will ever learn to have some patience? Time to replace Manuel and give the new manager a head start for 2011? Start playing more youngsters to join with the impressive array of Ike Davis, Jonathon Niese and Josh Thole?

This week will determine what they should do. Back-to-back trips to play the first place Braves and the contending Phillies will direct the course of the club. If things go well (4-2), the Mets should hold their fire (literally and figuratively); wait, see what happens and hope they can stick around in contention in anticipation of another hot streak and possibly steal a playoff spot; if they go poorly (2-4 or worse), it's time to start moving toward 2011 and, more importantly, 2012.

This team is in a similar situation as the clubs from 2005 and 1983-84. Low expectations, but improving; money available and the ability to sneak up on people; a surprisingly fertile farm system ready to bear fruit. Unless the club utterly collapses like the Orioles have in the second halves of recent years, they should not do something drastic like firing GM Omar Minaya with two years remaining on his contract. Truth be told, he doesn't deserve to be fired given the way the system is now producing.

Mets fans don't want to hear that. They repeatedly implore bold changes without a realistic solution to the problems. There are pie in the sky wishes that the great Billy Beane will bring his Moneyball "magic" to New York; that someone, anyone from the Red Sox organization will replenish the club in the same way as the Red Sox have become an annual contender; that Gene Michael will come out of semi-retirement to rebuild; that Kevin Towers will take over; then there are the ridiculous and agenda-driven notions like Sandy Alderson, Paul DePodesta (yurgh), or someone with a stat-based theory.

Number one, Minaya's not getting fired; number two, the Mets don't hire that way. For better or worse, they do not import outsiders. It's always someone who's currently with or came up through the organization. For the most part, the team's had success in recent years and it's not a ridiculous way to run things.

If a change is made, it won't be any of the aforementioned names. Beane's star has crashed and burned and he's exposed as a mediocre GM and relentless self-promoter with little in the way of practical success to bolster him any longer; the Steinbrenners will not allow Michael to take over the Mets; Towers has become quite popular with the way the Padres have risen after his firing, but he's not the savior he's portrayed to be, in fact, he's quite mediocre historically and is living off a few smart moves that worked out well; Alderson and DePodesta? Uh, no.

No.

If a change is made, it will either be assistant GM John Ricco taking over or they'll bring Gerry Hunsicker in from the Rays. To me, the only choice would be Hunsicker; and it would be a good choice.

At any rate, Minaya is not getting fired! He'll receive----and deserves----2011 to redeem himself.

Regarding the manager, the Mets appear to be prepared----again barring a total collapse----to let Manuel finish the year in a similar way as they did Art Howe after Minaya took over as GM. He'll be fired, but he'll finish the year. It does and doesn't make sense. Also, baseball edicts decree that a minority candidate must be interviewed when making a new hire.*

*Does that still apply if the manager who's being fired is a minority? If the manager who's being fired replaced a minority? Baseball probably wouldn't have an answer to that.

The fans want blood, but it's easier and less controversial to wait until the end of the season and dismiss the manager and some of the coaching staff. On the other hand, it also makes sense to install the new manager on an interim basis (presumably Bob Melvin, a respectable manager strategically and in the clubhouse) with Terry Collins as the bench coach and let them see what they have for 2011; after that, go through the process of interviews----Eric Wedge, Fredi Gonzalez, Chip Hale----before deciding on a permanent replacement with Melvin having a leg up.

If things go poorly on this trip, I'd make the change immediately.

Regarding the players, I can't continue to defend Francouer. His smile and enthusiasm are to be admired; he's well-liked in the clubhouse, plays hard every day and his talent is undeniable; but it's as if he starts to slump and goes right back to square one with his impatience. He almost openly says, "this is how I do it, sink or swim" and it's mostly sink. From early in the season when he tried to show more selectivity and didn't swing at anything and everything, he's lapsed into the same bad habits that got him run out of Atlanta and isn't putting up a pretense of trying to wait for a good pitch to hit.

Another bad week and it's time to sit or trade Francoeur and let Fernando Martinez get a chance to play regularly for the rest of the season.

Martinez has been hitting in the minors and is healthy (for now); the Mets have brought up their younger players to impressive results and need to see what they have in F-Mart. That time is a week away.

The Mets did the right thing by holding off on any capricious trades at the deadline and the fans are agreeing with the reluctance to trade the likes of Jenrry Mejia and the other youngsters to rent a player who isn't going to make that much of a difference one way or the other----that's exactly what the Mets have been ripped for in the past and put them in the predicament they were in when Minaya took over. They have to continue to be smart; and being smart is giving their formerly most-prized prospect----Fernando Martinez----a good long look in the big leagues; and replacing the manager.

We'll know the direction by next week.

I'm confident they'll do the right thing.

• The Chone Figgins chronicles:

Whom to believe?

As the trade deadline approached, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN said on Twitter that the Mariners approached the Braves about taking Chone Figgins off their hands.

Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times said it was the other way 'round; that the Braves asked about Figgins and were told no.

Hmmm.

I respect Crasnick and think Baker is a pompous and condescending dinosaur with an agenda, but that has nothing to do with my believing Crasnick in this case.

If the Braves approached the Mariners about Figgins, would Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik---lauded for his cold-blooded business approach to running his team and fearless aggressiveness----have dismissed the thought out of hand with a curt "no"?

Would the Braves----a club with payroll constraints----have taken the Figgins contract even if the Mariners agreed to pay a portion of it? Figgins has been a train wreck on and off the field for the toxic wasteland that is the 2010 Mariners and they'd undoubtedly love to be rid of him; they would've engaged the Braves in trade talks and presumably taken very little back in order to get out from under the Figgins albatross.

The contract pays Figgins a guaranteed $25 million after this year (with, by my estimation, approximately a bit less than $4 million remaining on this year's salary), and a vesting option for 2014 that will kick in if Figgins reaches 600 plate appearances in 2013; and I can tell you right now that if Figgins is in a bodycast, he'd find a way to "mummy" his way up to the plate to reach that number of plate appearances.

Would the Braves absorb that deal? And play Figgins where? He can play center field, but hasn't been out there regularly since 2006 and isn't particularly good at it; so where? Second base? What would they do with Martin Prado? I suppose they could play Figgins wherever as a roving utilityman. But he's a speed player who's entering his mid-30s; chances are that by 2012 he's going to be pretty much useless. The duration of the contract was ridiculous to begin with before getting to the money and I said so at the time.

Zduriencik's reputation as a "genius" is taking a flogging this year; Braves GM Frank Wren isn't exactly Branch Rickey, so anything is possible. Logically, I find it hard to believe that the Mariners wouldn't have jumped at the chance to rid themselves of Figgins for anything the Braves were willing to give them.

Because of that, I'm with Crasnick that it was the Mariners who floated Figgins's name to the Braves and not vice versa.

• Viewer Mail 8.2.2010:

Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes RE Kerry Wood:

The good news on the Wood trade (at least for me) is that when a guy comes to NY and doesn't work out (Randy Winn, LaTroy Hawkins, etc), the Yankees don't wait around for results. They just move on to somebody else. So if Wood can't get it done, dump him.

I agree that it's no-risk, but I can't believe the Yankees think this will work considering how bad Wood's been in the past two years. If they do, then their arrogance in thinking their coaches can fix anyone and everyone is beyond the scope of sanity.

The Brooklyn Trolley Blogger writes RE Adrian Gonzalez, the Mets and the Yankees:

Adrian Gonzalez..(side-bar) ~ San Diego was the first NL team to get 60 wins this year. This is the team Kevin Towers got fired for building. Are we really sure S.D. won't come up with some cheddar and retain him? Gonzo just might give em a little home town break if they keep up their pace of play.

My honest opinion bout the Yankee moves ~ these were the type of clutter-some, one move too many, moves that make players on the bench get lost in space; the kind that caused the Yank's early eliminations from '02 thru '08.

Did you catch how at the winter meetings past, Omar said how much other teams liked our prospects. Those were his exact words he used this time around at the deadline almost verbatim. Is that being frank or believing your own lies? LOL.

I'm reluctant to give Towers as much credit as everyone else is for the Padres; he did some brilliant things (Gonzalez; the Jake Peavy trade; and Heath Bell); he did some utterly stupid things like claiming Randy Myers off waivers from the Blue Jays in 1998, having the Blue Jays say, "he's yours" and getting stuck with the remainder of Myers's contract----Towers almost got fired for it.

Firing him after last year was a strange thing to do for the Padres especially after letting him conduct the negotiations to trade Gonzalez and trading Peavy, but owner Jeff Moorad has a right to bring in the GM he wants; he'd inherited Towers and wanted Jed Hoyer; I can't blame him for that. Towers will not be the next Mets GM. If I had to bet, I'd say he ends up with the Cubs.

Gonzalez has said he wants to get paid and he appears ambivalent about playing in his hometown. He's not giving a discount and he will get traded.

The Yankees got Lance Berkman for nothing----that was a good move. The other deals? Austin Kearns? Kerry Wood? I don't see the point, but I guess it's a case of, "why not?".

As much as people make fun of some of the things Minaya says and does, it turns out he was right about many things this past winter. Fans wanted Jason Marquis (injured for the Nationals); they wanted Ben Sheets (injured for the Athletics); Jon Garland (better than John Maine and with a flashy record for the Padres but still mediocre); Joel Pineiro (even though he's hurt, I still say that's the one they missed); and Bengie Molina (no thanks). Jason Bay hasn't been good, but no one thought he'd have 6 homers in August. Matt Holliday was not coming to the Mets; he didn't want to leave the Cardinals and the Mets weren't coming close to matching the Cardinals offer.

The system is looking quite good now. Give Omar a break.

• The Prince on the Podcast:

I was a guest with Sal at SportsFan Buzz a week ago Friday. You can listen directly here----link----or click on Sal's site and download it from I-Tunes.

I'll also be a guest tomorrow to talk about the trades among other things; listen to the last appearance if you quite literally....can....not....wait to hear my voice. I'll understand. I love hearing my own voice too. I'm addictive.

• Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide:

My book is still available on Amazon, I-Universe and Barnes and Noble.com. It's available for download as an E-book here. You can also now get it for less that five bucks on BN via download here.

Sunday Lightning 8.1.2010

• Winners and losers? I don't need no stinkin' winners and losers:

Cold-blooded analysis is all you get here.

Let's have a look at the big trades that were completed at the deadline.

The Yankees acquire RHP Kerry Wood from the Indians for a player to be named later and cash.

Um.

Okay....

On the one hand, Wood presents almost no risk whatsoever to the Yankees; they're getting about 2/3 of the money left ($3.7 million) on Wood's contract from the Indians; he might be rejuvenated by entering a pennant race with the chance for a ring; and he's still got a power fastball and curve.

On the other hand, he's been injury-prone throughout his entire career; has been almost completely unreliable and homer-happy in any meaningful situation as a closer; his control has been poor; and his strikeouts are down.

The Yankees dumped Chan Ho Park to make room for Wood; it's a nothing deal----minimal risk, high reward...and Wood's not going to be any better than Joba Chamberlain in the role of set-up man if that's where the Yankees are going to give him an opportunity to pitch. In fact, he'll be worse. He's either going to get hurt or get rocked. I'd be stunned if he's of any use at all.

The Cardinals trade OF Ryan Ludwick to the Padres; the Padres trade LHP Nick Greenwood and RHP Corey Kluber to the Indians; and the Indians trade RHP Jake Westbrook to the Cardinals.

Ludwick is an immediate upgrade to the Padres stagnant offense. While his production is more in line with his 22 homer, 97 RBI, .775 OPS from 2009 rather than the massive power year (37 homers) he had in 2008, the Padres needed a bat to protect Adrian Gonzalez in the batting order down the stretch and having spent much of his time with the Cardinals (pre-Matt Holliday) batting behind Albert Pujols, Ludwick isn't a stranger to protecting a major star. In addition, Ludwick's not a rental; he's not eligible for free agency until after 2011.

The Padres are flush with young pitching throughout their organization and could afford to surrender a couple of prospects to the Indians to get this done. Greenwood is a soon-to-be 23-year-old lefty starter who's struggling in A ball. At first glance of his size and numbers, he looks to be another in the long line of Indians pitchers who are undersized, soft-tossing lefties in the vein of Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers. They have a blind spot for these types of pitchers and should probably go see an ophthalmologist to repair it.

Kluber is a 24-year-old righty and is presumably closer to big league ready. He's got good strikeout numbers and respectable stats across the board.

The Indians got something for a pitcher in Westbrook they weren't going to re-sign as a free agent, so in that sense, they did well.

The Cardinals bolstered their starting rotation with the gutty Westbrook. After having whiffed on getting Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt, this is a reasonable on-field substitute for those star pitchers and is much more financially palatable for a club that still has to be concerned with keeping Pujols after next season. Westbrook throws strikes; and has pitched well in his comeback from Tommy John surgery. He also has playoff experience.

Ludwick had missed time due to injury and at his age---32----was expendable. Jon Jay has looked good in his place and the Cardinals have enough offense to win without Ludwick. Worst case scenario, the Cardinals can make a move on a bat the likes of Jose Guillen in August if they don't trust Jay.

This is a good deal for everyone; they all got what they were looking for at a reasonable price.

The Cubs trade LHP Ted Lilly and INF Ryan Theriot to the Dodgers for INF Blake DeWitt, RHP Brett Wallach and RHP Kyle Smit.

The Pirates trade RHP Octavio Dotel to the Dodgers for RHP James McDonald.

Every year the Dodgers make a series of decisive moves to bolster their club at the trading deadline and don't think that they're done----if they hang around the outskirts of contention, they'll still be in the market for upgrades all through August. Give credit to Dodgers GM Ned Colletti for getting a fiery competitor in Lilly. Lilly's velocity is down, but he's pitched well this year and is a sturdy veteran who won't be intimidated by a pennant race. He's a free agent at the end of the year.

Theriot and DeWitt are a wash in everything but contract status. DeWitt's cheap and Theriot's not (arbitration eligible and making $2.6 million this year). Theriot has more pop in his bat than DeWitt does and more speed.

The Dodgers also acquired Octavio Dotel from the Pirates for James McDonald. Dotel still strikes people out and has been pitching better over the last three weeks than he did earlier in the season. He's a veteran arm who's a free agent at the end of the season. (Dotel has an option for next year at $4.5 million that has become mutual with the trade.)

The Cubs get a cheap infielder in DeWitt who can play first, second and third base. He's a cog in the machine and has some use. Plus he's cheap. Did I mention he's cheap? Wallach and Smit are young pitchers who weren't going to help the Dodgers this season, if ever.

The Pirates trade OF Ryan Church, INF Bobby Crosby and RHP D.J. Carrasco to the Diamondbacks for C Chris Snyder, INF Pedro Ciriaco and $3 million.

And the Pirates trade LHP Javier Lopez to the Giants for RHP Joe Martinez and OF John Bowker.

Let's exchange some contracts of mediocrity/expensive injury risks.

The Pirates made a very good deal in getting James McDonald from the Dodgers for Dotel. I love McDonald's stuff, but he's had trouble throwing strikes. The Pirates haven't had the greatest success in developing pitchers, but Dotel was a waste of time for them and they got something of value for him. A fresh start in a venue where few are paying attention may be the best thing for McDonald.

I also think they did well in swapping the veteran Lopez to the Giants for Martinez and Bowker. Martinez is the key to this trade as he had no spot with the Giants and has put up respectable numbers in the minors.

Bowker replaces Church and he can do whatever it is that Church does and presumably not be as much of a nuisance.

And the Pirates need Chris Snyder, why?

Let's see, Snyder is expensive (for the Pirates anyway----they have to pay him about $5 million of the remaining money on his contract through 2011 counting the $3 million they got from the Diamondbacks); he's injury prone and not particularly good defensively.

The other moves the Pirates made are saving them from my now familiar lament regarding the missteps of their front office ("Ah, the Pirates.") The Snyder maneuver made no sense.

D.J. Carrasco has a good arm and the Diamondbacks got a couple of (somewhat) warm bodies in Church and Crosby.

The Braves acquire RHP Kyle Farnsworth and OF Rick Ankiel from the Royals for RHP Jesse Chavez, OF Gregor Blanco and LHP Tim Collins.

I'm sure people looked at this trade and said, "why do the Braves need Farnsworth and Ankiel?", but the one place where Farnsworth fulfilled his massive potential in his entire career was in his brief time as the Braves closer in 2005.

Aside from an admittedly big time gack in game 4 of the NLDS in which he allowed a grand slam in the eighth inning to Lance Berkman to bring the Astros to within 1 run; and a game-tying homer with two outs in the bottom of the ninth to Brad Ausmus----Brad Ausmus!!!!----in a game the Astros eventually won to advance to the NLCS, Farnsworth was almost unhittable for the Braves. Perhaps a return will get the best out of Farnsworth again.

Ankiel has been injured and hasn't been of much use for the Royals this year or for the Cardinals last year, but he's a rental and Nate McLouth hasn't been able to get out of his own way for the Braves this year.

It's a "why not?" trade.

Regarding McLouth, I'm seeing a similar situation with him as I saw with Jeff Francoeur and the Braves; it's not enough to bench and then demote him, but he has to be abused as well. The Braves organization has little patience for their struggling players and it's a bit unfair. They're a smart organization (mostly) and should know better.

The Royals did alright too. Chavez hasn't pitched well, but I like his arm; Blanco is a good, fearless player with speed; Collins is a small (listed at 5'7") lefty who only had a brief stopover with the Braves organization after being acquired in the Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez trade. They dumped some salary for the remainder of the season and got something for it.

• Mirror images in the funhouse are still mirror images:

The last teams and front offices for whom you'd expect to have a reasonably close comparison are the Mets and Red Sox, but given their lack of movement and current positions on and off the field, that's where they are.

The Red Sox did little other than acquire a catcher with decreasing value in Jarrod Saltalamacchia from the Rangers for two minor leaguers. The Mets did nothing.

Why the similarity, you ask?

Both fan bases are angry and concerned about the remainder of the season; both front offices are under pressure, albeit in vastly different contexts; and both appear to have gazed into their crystal balls and realized that making a bold and possibly stupid trade now would only hurt the organization, so it's better to stand pat, take the heat and hope for the best.

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is quite the actor.

He reads his canned and predictable lines with aplomb. In a statement reminiscent to his absurd "now and for the future" crack when explaining the club's lack of movement in 2006 as their season crumbled, yesterday he said, "It is an empty feeling to come away empty handed".

It's also an excellent performance.

For a smart guy, Epstein says some pretty stupid things, but it's part of the persona. The Red Sox tried to improve and were probably quite creative in making the attempt, but they weren't going to trade any of their more valuable chips like Daniel Bard, Clay Buchholz or Jacoby Ellsbury (they're going to need some of them to get Adrian Gonzalez after the season); and they're going to have a major uphill climb to make it to the playoffs this year. In fact, they're not making the playoffs this year and they know it internally.

Saltalamacchia will replace Victor Martinez behind the plate next year; I'd expect Jason Varitek to come back as a backup/part-timer; they'll let Martinez leave as a free agent; and they're going to shift Kevin Youkilis to third base to make a major play (and get) Gonzalez.

Book it.

Some Mets fans are still screaming for the team to do something without presenting a rational idea as to what that something was supposed to be. The team is only on the outskirts of contention; they're integrating younger players into the lineup and, rightfully, don't want to add more bad money to the lingering (and expiring after 2011) contracts of Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo and even Carlos Beltran.

I sensed a shift though. Although manager Jerry Manuel is still reviled by the fan base, the emergence and impressive play of Ike Davis, Jon Niese, Ruben Tejada and Josh Thole has re-energized the club and the future is quite bright.

They weren't trading any of their youngsters for the likes of Jake Westbrook or Ted Lilly and that's essentially all that was out there. Octavio Dotel? No thanks.

The Mets biggest problem in making a trade is that the players teams want aren't getting traded; and the players the Mets want to trade have no value as anything other than exchanging one headache for another.

GM Omar Minaya did the right thing in holding off because they'll be able to get the same quality of average or slightly better piece----at a far lower price----if they hang around contention through August; and with the trips to Atlanta and Philadelphia this week, that's a shaky premise right now. Although the Mets have come out swinging with both fists when their backs have been to the wall this season, making a drastic move yesterday wouldn't have helped much and the risk-reward was non-existent.

• Can Roy Oswalt close?

The Phillies now have one great starting pitcher (Roy Halladay); two very good starters (Oswalt, Cole Hamels); mediocrity at best in the back of the rotation; and a bullpen that should be jailed for arson.

Last night, Brad Lidge allowed a game-winning, 3-run homer to Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals and the Phillies bullpen exploded again. The Phillies have little margin for error the rest of the way and they'd better hope that those three big time starters are lights out and the offense covers for the back of the rotation and the bullpen, otherwise they're in big trouble.

• Viewer Mail 8.1.2010:

Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes RE Lance Berkman and the Yankees:

Berkman? Fine. I'm not expecting much. But he has to be a better DH than Nick Johnson, just by virtue of showing up.

Berkman will be very good for the Yankees. My advice on the "not expecting much" front is to save it for Kerry Wood.

The Brooklyn Trolley Blogger writes RE the Mets:

The silence in Flushing is deafening.
I'll be on Twitter soon. LOL Looks like we'll have to out-flank them.

Better to make no deal than a stupid deal, especially considering the club circumstances.

Your seat in my Family is waiting on Twitter. The army grows....

• The Prince on the Podcast:

I was a guest with Sal at SportsFan Buzz a week ago Friday. You can listen directly here----link----or click on Sal's site and download it from I-Tunes.

In addition, I'll be a guest again on Tuesday to discuss the trades and other stuff. Begin preparations now is my advice.

• Paul Lebowitz's 2010 Baseball Guide:

My book is still available on Amazon, I-Universe and Barnes and Noble.com. It's available for download as an E-book here. You can also now get it for less that five bucks on BN via download here.

I accurately predicted the Pirates sell-off; it's hard to take credit for that, but I will anyway.