Chicago White Sox---Hot Stove Preview

• Winter Preview----Chicago White Sox:

The White Sox are set for another title run (contingent on health concerns).

What they need: A power outfield bat; a power DH bat; a backup catcher; a decision on their closer.

Free agents: C Ramon Castro; RHP Octavio Dotel; OF Jermaine Dye; OF Scott Podsednik

Castro should get a job somewhere as a #1 or 1A catcher, so he won't be back.

Dotel is an in-demand journeyman who will get a better offer elsewhere to what the White Sox would offer. He's gone.

Dye and the White Sox have already agreed to part ways. He'll likely wait out the Jason Bay/Matt Holliday/Miguel Cabrera situations and sign with whichever team loses out on their initial targets and settles for a still solid player and always solid man in Dye.

Podsednik only seems to play well for the White Sox; when he left the last time, he fell flat on his face. I'd expect him to stay.

Players available via trade: 1B Paul Konerko; RHP Bobby Jenks; who knows?

Konerko was rumored to be part of a three-way trade that would've sent Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres to the White Sox; Konerko to the Angels; and a package of prospects to the Padres. I think Konerko's going to be moved. The Mets and Giants could both use him as fallback options for first base.

I'd tread carefully with Jenks if I were White Sox GM Kenny Williams.

Yes, he had a rotten year; yes, he's arbitration-eligible and due a big raise from his $5.6 million salary in 2009; yes, there are a lot of closers available in a saturated market; and from in-house, Matt Thornton could handle the job very well in replacing Jenks. But Jenks has one thing going for him that can't be said for most, if not all the closers they'd be using in his place----he's gotten the big outs in the post-season.

This is not something to dismiss based on numbers, salary and whatever. Unless Williams plans to make a move on Jonathan Papelbon (and don't discount that possibility), would the White Sox be comfortable with the Billy Wagners, Jose Valverdes and whoevers of the world in a similar situation?

I know I wouldn't.

I literally don't put anything past Kenny Williams. Who else would've thought Carlos Quentin would stay healthy two years ago when he was acquired from the Diamondbacks? That Gavin Floyd had the ace-quality stuff to be a 17-game winner? That anyone would've had the balls to claim Alex Rios and his contract from the Blue Jays? Or to aggressively pursue and nab Jake Peavy from the Padres?

I could go on and on.

Williams is one of the best GMs in baseball because he's smart, unpredictable and a keen judge of talent. He could do anything at anytime. Don't be stunned if he pulls something befitting an evil genius from a James Bond film in the coming weeks.

Non-tender candidates: RHP Tony Pena

Pena's the only guy I can see that could be non-tendered based on his arbitration-eligibility, but he's got a great arm, won't win a big award and is lightning in a bottle. He's not going anywhere.

Players to pursue:

Via free agency: LHP Mike Gonzalez (Braves); OF Garret Anderson (Braves); 1B Adam LaRoche (Braves); OF Jason Bay (Red Sox); LHP Billy Wagner (Red Sox); RHP Rafael Betancourt (Rockies); DH/1B Aubrey Huff (Tigers); RHP Kiko Calero (Marlins); 1B Nick Johnson (Marlins); RHP Jose Valverde (Astros); INF/OF Chone Figgins (Angels); DH Vladimir Guerrero (Angels); C Brad Ausmus (Dodgers); DH Jim Thome (Dodgers); RHP Jon Garland (Dodgers); CF Mike Cameron (Brewers); RHP Braden Looper (Brewers); C Mike Redmond (Twins); 1B/DH Carlos Delgado (Mets); DH Gary Sheffield (Mets); OF Johnny Damon (Yankees); DH Hideki Matsui (Yankees); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); OF Randy Winn (Giants); INF/OF Mark DeRosa (Cardinals); C Gregg Zaun (Rays); 3B/1B/DH Hank Blalock (Rangers)

There are the larger and in-demand names for bullpen help (Gonzalez) and the bats (Bay; Damon; Matsui); but given Williams's history and belief in veterans who've once know greatness or near-greatness (his infatuation and eventual acquisition of Ken Griffey Jr exemplifies this), he might want to bring in the fading vets such as Vladimir Guerrero and Carlos Delgado to try to squeeze the very last bit of talent from them in the twilight of their careers.

It's possible that former White Sox like Garland and Thome might want to return. He'll find a back-up catcher from the rabble; and sift through the free agent casualties and non-tenders to get back-of-the-rotation help with the likes of Looper.

Via trade: RHP Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox); LF Carl Crawford (Rays); RHP Roy Halladay (Blue Jays); OF/DH Luke Scott (Orioles); 1B/3B/DH Miguel Cabrera (Tigers); 1B Kendry Morales (Angels); OF Nelson Cruz (Rangers); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); DH Jack Cust (Athletics); OF Cody Ross (Marlins); RHP Josh Johnson (Marlins); 2B Dan Uggla (Marlins); RHP Francisco Cordero (Reds); RHP Bronson Arroyo (Reds); 1B Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)

Only giant names need apply for the most part.

If Williams is going to continue to do what it is Williams does and act aggressively before the fact, there's no reason to believe that he wouldn't make an aggressive move on Papelbon if the Red Sox toss his name out there.

I think the Rays will make a perfunctory effort to keep Crawford by offering him an extension. Said offer will be nowhere close to what it's going to take to keep a five-tool star in his prime who's going to be in such heavy demand and they'll put him on the market.

Halladay has as good a chance of winding up with the White Sox as he has of winding up anywhere.

Uggla would fill the bill as a power DH/first baseman. Young pitchers like Morrow and Johnson are very much negotiable commodities; and Gonzalez has been pursued by the White Sox as mentioned earlier.

Suffice it to say that Williams is going to go after what he wants. And he just might get it. Whatever "it" is. While not making sense on paper, questioning the judgment of Kenny Williams has never been wise.

• Um, Miguel Cabrera for AL MVP?
  

Had the writer covering the Mariners (Keizo Konishi of The Kyodo News) voted for Derek Jeter or Mark Teixeira first in the AL MVP balloting, it still would've been wrong, but it would've been more understandable than voting for Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera put up great numbers, but he was nowhere close to winner Joe Mauer.

I had Cabrera fifth behind Mauer, Jeter, Teixeira and Jason Bay. That pick was a farce; as if Konishi just filled his ballot like it was a rushed, last minute lottery ticket.

Ridiculous.

• Viewer Mail 11.24.2009:

Jeff at Red State Blue State writes RE Joe Mauer:

"He'll get locked up and be a Twin for life."

Some would say being a Twin for life is sorta like being locked up. But you're right in that they have about as good a chance to win as anyone else... and they play the game the right way all around. I'm curious to see them play outside in Minnesota in April and September though. That'll be fun.

I honestly can't picture Mauer in a different uniform than that of the Twins. He grew up there and was a football star as well as a baseball star, so the cold weather won't affect him. He won't leave and they won't trade him. Plus don't discount that his agent. Ron Shapiro isn't and never was a Scott Boras "gimme all the money" type. His first question to his players is "where do you want to play?" Mauer wants to be in Minnesota and that's where he'll be.

Jeff, prepare to take the reins for a few weeks in or about mid-December. More information will be forthcoming. You'll be my voice. And my fist. I'll be counting on you.

Issac writes RE Joe Mauer:

I doubt Mauer would have as good a chance to win in Minnesota as he would have in a team like the Red Sox. I think he's likely to stay because of the reasons you mention, but if the Twins give him his money, they will have less flexibility than they have now, and they don't have a lot right now. I think he'll have a good chance at a WS, but he would have a better chance on a team that goes to the playoffs every year.

I don't agree with the idea of a lesser opportunity to win with the Twins. Five playoff appearances in eight years is no joke. The Twins have a template they follow and are always finding production from their bats and young pitching. They've gotten beat in the playoffs over-and-over again, but they've shown that no matter what, they're there at the end and spend when necessary to try and win. He'll stay and the club will be competitive even if they don't win a title. All a player can ask for is a reasonable commitment to win and Mauer gets that and everything else with his hometown club.

Detroit Tigers---Hot Stove Preview

• Winter preview----Detroit Tigers:

The Tigers are in trouble.

What they need: A closer; a new middle infield; starting pitching; to clear some salary and replenish the farm system.

Free agents: SS Adam Everett; 1B/3B/OF Aubrey Huff; RHP Brandon Lyon; 2B Placido Polanco; RHP Fernando Rodney; LHP Jarrod Washburn

Everett and Huff won't be back.

Washburn has many options in better situations, probably for much more money than the Tigers are going to be willing to pay, the Yankees, Mariners and Twins are known to have interest in Washburn even as he pitched horribly for the Tigers after joining them at mid-season. He won't be back.

Polanco is 34 and while the Tigers would love to keep him, it makes no sense to pay a load of money to do so if they're clearing salary. With other teams----the Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets----possibly having interest in the good hitting and fielding Polanco, he's gone.

Rodney will be a low-cost pickup for a closer/set-up man hungry team and won't be back.

Lyon could stay depending on the market and where the other available relievers wind up. The market is saturated with closers or former closers; Lyon could be one of those pitchers who's out of work deep into the off season.

Players available via trade: RHP Jeremy Bonderman; 1B/3B/OF Miguel Cabrera; CF Curtis Granderson; OF/1B/DH Carlos Guillen; INF/OF/C Brandon Inge; RHP Edwin Jackson; OF Magglio Ordonez; LHP Nate Robertson; LHP Dontrelle Willis; RHP Joel Zumaya

My God.

For everyone who relentlessly rips the Mets, the more I look at the circumstances of some of these teams as I make my way around the league with my Hot Stove Previews, I feel better and better about the circumstances of my chosen club.

For the Tigers, as I list the players, I'll add their salaries because it's more horrifying than any tale Edgar Allen Poe could've conjured at his highest, drunkest and most creatively free.

Jeremy Bonderman ($12.5 million for 2010) has pitched in 20 games over the past two seasons and been predominately terrible. He got paid based on his 14-8 2006 season, was barely mediocre in 2007 and then got hurt. If he's healthy, he's good. Is he healthy? I dunno, but he is overpaid.

Miguel Cabrera ($126 million through 2015) is one of the best hitters in baseball and could be moved based on his talent; salary; that he's the Tigers most marketable player and best bet to rejuvenate a barren farm system to any degree; and that the club (especially owner Mike Illich) were angrier than anyone truly let on for his alcohol-fueled drunken dispute with his wife over the last weekend of the season which resulted in his arrest.

The list of teams who'd want Cabrera is long. The Giants, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Cardinals and many others would love to get their hands on Cabrera. I think he gets traded.

Curtis Granderson (almost $26 million guaranteed through 2012) is probably the most all-around marketable player the Tigers have to deal, so he'd get the most back. A 28-year-old center fielder who can run and hit for power is hard to find. If the Tigers are serious about rebuilding, Granderson will be moved.

Carlos Guillen ($26 million through 2011) is 34; he can't play the field anywhere other than first base; doesn't hit enough to be a DH; and has become injury prone. He's not going anywhere.

Brandon Inge ($6.6 million for 2010) is also marketable because he's versatile, plays good defense pretty much anywhere you put him and you know what you're getting from him offensively----some pop and lots of strikeouts. I think he'll be traded.

Edwin Jackson is on the block because he's arbitration-eligible; slumped in the second half of the season after looking like Dave Stewart for much of the season; and would bring value back. Depending on how the Tigers do dumping other contracts, Jackson might stay.

Magglio Ordonez ($18 million guaranteed) was a point of debate for almost the whole season because his contract kicker activated when he reached 540 plate appearances in 2009 and the Tigers were faced with the prospect of: A) a union grievance if they benched him; B) using him when they needed him to stay in contention and he was playing better over the second half after a woeful start; or C) releasing him to save the salary for 2010.

There was no "right" answer to the problems. I don't know what I would've done myself----I probably would've bit the bullet and released him----but the Tigers were contending and a championship would've been worth the Ordonez money if they'd turned the trick.

They're stuck with Ordonez.

Nate Robertson ($10 million for 2010)...um, yah.

Robertson's numbers tell the story better than anything I could say.

Dontrelle Willis ($12 million for 2010) could be moved for a team that thinks they could straighten out the charismatic, talented and mentally fried Willis. The Tigers would have to take a bad contract back for him, but he could be moved. If I were the Mets, I'd call the Tigers and say, "Oliver Perez for Willis and Robertson, right now. Take it or leave it."

A return to the NL could only help Willis since he couldn't be much worse or more of a sunk cost than he is now for the Tigers. He's on the verge of becoming an outfielder if he can't learn to throw strikes again.

Zumaya's arbitration-eligible and it seems so long ago that his lightning fastball lit up radar guns and overmatched the likes of Alex Rodriguez in the 2006 playoffs. He's had nothing but injury problems since then. He's only 25, so could be added to any deal of the likes of Cabrera to sweeten it and get more back. I'd take a chance on Zumaya.

Non-tender candidates: RHP Zach Miner; SS Ramon Santiago; RHP Joel Zumaya

Miner's a mediocre reliever you can find relatively easily. They'll walk away from any risk of a substantial arbitration award.

Santiago's a 30-year-old journeyman. They're not paying him either.

Zumaya's an interesting case. There are viable reasons for the team to cut their losses with him as he heads for arbitration. They won't, but you couldn't argue with them if they did.

Players to pursue:

Via free agency: OF Garret Anderson (Braves); RHP Rafael Soriano (Braves); LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); RHP Kevin Gregg (Cubs); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); RHP Jose Valverde (Astros); 2B Ronnie Belliard (Dodgers); 2B Orlando Hudson (Dodgers); CF Mike Cameron (Brewers); 2B Felipe Lopez (Brewers); RHP J.J. Putz (Mets); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); OF Coco Crisp (Royals); LHP Erik Bedard (Mariners)

Many of these players are contingent on the Tigers cleaning house and needing warm, serviceable, available bodies to fill holes if they manage to somehow dump some big salaries. Most would fall to the Tigers based on the market. Bedard, Putz, Marquis, Davis all will have suitors, but could be left out in the cold scrounging for work, which could lead them to Detroit.

The days of the Tigers delving deeply into free agency/trades for big names are over.

Via trade: 2B Alexei Casilla (Twins); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); SS Brandon Wood (Angels); 2B Dan Uggla (Marlins); 3B/1B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); OF Cody Ross (Marlins); RHP Matt Lindstrom (Marlins); Colby Rasmus (Cardinals); Angel Guzman (Cubs); Josh Vitters (Cubs)

Considering the Tigers situation, they're going to have trouble getting much of anything for their big contracts if someone, anyone agrees to take a couple of them off their hands.

The Twins are annoyed with Casilla and he could play second base for the Tigers and replace Polanco. Morrow needs a change of scenery and there was talk of a deal surrounding Jackson to the Mariners for Morrow----they've supposedly broken down, but could be revisited. I think Morrow will one day be a star if he gets out of Seattle.

Wood's stock has fallen with the Angels after demolishing Triple A in each of the past three years. Is he a Triple A star/big league washout? Or does he need a legitimate chance to play every single day in the big leagues to get his bearings? Who knows?

Uggla, Cantu, Ross and Linstrom could be had, but the Tigers don't have much youth to deal after the series of short-sighted and borderline crazy moves (Jair Jurrjens for Edgar Renteria?) that GM Dave Dombrowski has made in recent years. Doesn't hurt to ask.

Whoever's interested in Granderson will have to give up some young talent along the lines of Rasmus. The Cubs probably wouldn't trade Vitters in such a deal.

• The Prince vs PECOTA:

I mentioned yesterday how Nate Silver received endless credit/accolades/borderline lust for his picking of the Rays to vastly improve in 2008 and being right and that I'vereceived little-to-no acknowledgement for having been right about the Marlins and Giants this year.

He has his calculations; I have what passes for my brain. Take a look at our respective predictions for the 2009 season and see who was more accurate.

PECOTA 2009 Standings Predictions vs Paul's 2009 Standings Predicitions.

I will take your money, your worship or your women...or a combination of all three. And you ain't getting them back.

• Mauer's going nowhere:

There's an article in the NY Times today about Joe Mauer's pending MVP award and his prospects for staying in Minnesota. There's a suggested question as to whether the Twins will be able to keep him and if Mauer will look for richer pastures and a "better" chance to win a championship.

It's nonsense.

Mauer isn't a money-whore; the Twins will pay to keep him in his hometown; and he's got as good a chance to win in Minnesota as he does anywhere else.

I can't see Joe Mauer going mercenary and looking for every single penny he can squeeze out of the game on the open market to leave his home. That's not to say he doesn't want to get paid; he's going to get his money. The Twins are smart enough to realize that they have to keep one of the best three players in baseball in their fold; they won't pay him ARod money; they probably won't even pay him Mark Teixeira money; but at that point for the player, what's the difference?

How many more cars, homes, villas, boats, whatevers can he buy with $180 million that he couldn't buy with $150 million? And he doesn't seem to be an egomaniac that has to be validated by his paycheck. Everyone knows how great Mauer is already; and they'll know to an even larger degree when he officially gets the MVP later today.

As for the on-field product, the Twins have been in the playoffs five times in the past eight years. A break here, a break there; avoiding the Yankees, etc and they could easily have made it to a couple of World Series and won one of them. Can Mauer guarantee that he's going to have that opportunity anywhere else and have the dual benefit of playing at home? He's got as good a chance to win in Minnesota.

He'll get locked up and be a Twin for life. Guaranteed.

Sunday Lightning 11.22.2009

• Bay vs Holliday for the Red Sox:

With Jason Bay looking to cash in and numerous reports of him having rejected the Red Sox offer of 4-years and close to $60 million, you'd have to believe that the club isn't going to sit around and wait for Bay to sift through the offers before getting back to them; this turns the focus on Matt Holliday.

Which would be a better signing for the Red Sox?

Bay, who's 31 (a year-and-a-half older than Holliday); has handled Boston performing in an exemplary fashion on and off the field; and puts up the same numbers year-after-year? Or Holliday, who struggled adapting to the American League in his half-season with the Athletics and is represented by Scott Boras?

Naysayers on Holliday say that he was exposed when he left the friendly confines of Coors Field, but I think he was hurt more by number of obstacles in front of him in 2009. The change in ballparks; his impending free agency; playing for a bad team; and the new league were greater factors than any "exposure" of flaws. Despite his meltdown offensively and defensively in the NLDS after being sent to the Cardinals, Holliday is still going to get paid. His hot run after joining the Cardinals replenished his image.

To me, Bay is the better all-around player but his contractual demands are likely to be more reasonable than those of Holliday and Boras. The issue the Red Sox have to grapple with is what they're willing to do to fill their hole for a big bat and whether they're willing to wait for Bay.

The ancillary factors of both players----average defense being first and foremost on the list along with financial demands----aren't as important as one would believe they are in a home park like Fenway. The park itself should allow Holliday to come close (not replicate, but come close) to putting up similar numbers as he did in Colorado. He's more of a straightaway hitter than anything else, but he'd find a security blanket in the Green Monster. With the way the Red Sox get on base and hitting behind J.D. Drew and Kevin Youkilis, Holliday would drive in 130 runs.

Defensively, I don't believe there's an accurate way to quantify how well or poorly even the weaker and slower defenders would handle Fenway Park. There's such a short amount of ground to cover for a left fielder there that what's more important than range is how said outfielder learns to deal with the quirks and caroms off the wall and in the corners. Even Manny Ramirez could play solid defense out there when was sufficiently spurred on by whatever it is that motivates Manny on a given day. Carl Yastrzemski played the wall better than anyone; Jim Rice handled the wall; Holliday would deal with it. Work ethic wouldn't be a factor with him; he's always played as if his life depended on each and every play. He'd learn the nuances of the Wall.

Bay could be counted on in a similar fashion, but if Bay is intent on testing the free agent waters, the Red Sox might be better served to make the splash, go after Holliday aggressively and get him in quick strike fashion. This type of maneuver wouldn't preclude them from improving the offense further by going after Adrian Gonzalez as well. That would transform their lineup immediately back into a force.

I have a hunch Holliday's going to end up with the Red Sox sooner rather than later; that they learned their lesson from the dealings with Boras and Mark Teixeira last year; and watching the Yankees celebrate a World Series will have the same affect that the lost year of 2006 did as they dove into free agency like they were leaping from a burning building. It's the right move.

• A customary lull for the Marlins:

Although the credit for my picking the Marlins to win 90 games this year and seeing them win 87 was on a level with Nate Silver's much ballyhooed pick of the Rays making a vast leap into contention 2008, credit and acknowledgment for me has been either reluctant or non-existent for everyone other than my loyal followers; the truth now is that with the way the Marlins are shopping many of their name players, the inevitable lull in on-field success is coming for the best-run team in baseball.

Aside from Hanley Ramirez, it doesn't appear as if anyone on the Marlins roster is off-limits. And I guarantee, if a massive enough package (and it would have to be MASSIVE) came back for Ramirez, he'd be in the discussion as well. Dan Uggla will be traded, as will Jorge Cantu. Nick Johnson won't be back and Cody Ross could be moved too. Josh Johnson was in discussions for a contract extension to preclude his approaching arbitration and free agency after 2011; but it doesn't look like it's going to happen now, which will make Johnson available.

How many teams would be after Johnson? One of the best pitchers in baseball? It'd be easier to list the teams that wouldn't be interested in Johnson. The argument could be made that the acquisition of Johnson would be more worthwhile than teams going after Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays. Johnson will be 26 early next year; Halladay will be 33. Johnson already went through Tommy John surgery and has far less wear on his tires than Halladay. And as great and durable as Halladay has been, his workload has been heavy since 2002 and he missed substantial time in 2004-2005 with injuries. Plus whoever acquires Halladay has to worry about signing him after next year. They'd get a big year from him in 2010, but after that? Johnson might be a better investment.

Johnson's price tag would be steep; we're talking at least two blue-chip players along the lines of Ramirez/Cameron Maybin/Andrew Miller and a probably more; the Marlins always know what prospects to target.

The 2010 Marlins won't be contenders if they clear out the house. With their young pitching, they'll be competitive, but it will be a year or two before they repeat the process that had them contending under a minimalist payroll in 2008-2009; they'll be back, but it's a cycle; and next year will be a downturn for them.

• What was the point again?

I have no idea whether the Yankees are going to make a big play for John Lackey. My instincts say no. But if they again spend big money for a starting pitcher, you have to wonder what happened to the idea of developing their own pitchers instead of lavishing fortunes on outsiders. It's amazing how quickly a plan is abandoned.

The Yankees young arms Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy----advertised as the John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine of the new generation----didn't live up to the hype (putting it mildly). Now the expectations have been tamped down by reality of how hard it is to develop and contend simultaneously. There's still hope for Hughes as a starter, in fact, I think he's going to be quite good; Chamberlain should be in the bullpen; and Kennedy? I was never particularly impressed.

To sign another big name mercenary like Lackey would be tossing the whole plot into the trash. There are plenty of cheaper alternatives the Yankees could import who would gobble innings and function as a fourth starter (Jon Garland, a healthy Randy Wolf) rather than sign Lackey for the same money it cost to get A.J. Burnett.

Wouldn't Lackey be a reversion to what it was that GM Brian Cashman specifically wanted to get away from after all those championshipless (Paul's word) years? I say yes.

• Viewer Mail 11.22.2009:

Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes:

Why would the Twins want Pedro Martinez? He should stay in the NL where it's a lot more comfy.

I think Pedro's just looking for work at this point, so any and every team (including the dregs like the Nats and Padres) would be interested in bringing him in. Why not the Twins? I'm not saying it's a good idea for either side, but not insane either. They're a good young team that could use his wisdom if he can still drag himself out to the mound.

Jeff at Red State Blue State writes RE the NL Cy Young Award:

Yeah, I am biased, but I still really believe Wainwright was better than Lincecum this year. He was a horse. Great numbers AND win totals. If he wins that last game to get to 20 wins on the season we aren't having this conversation. The writers are in love with Timmeh and that's fine... but dissin' Waino (and Carp to some extent) like that is still pretty shocking.

The consensus is that the missed 20th was the deciding factor in many voters looking at other aspects in casting their vote. I still would've gone Lincecum, I think.

TIMMEH!!!!!

Joe at Statistician Magician writes:

Keith Law is a god amongst mere mortals.

So Joe, you disappear for four months into some bizarre state of suspended animation; ignoring uncharacteristic wonderment on my part (I wouldn't say concern----I know nothing of such things) of your whereabouts via email; and you only resurface when I mention Keith Law?

You're going to have to go a bit further than this to re-enter the good graces of my Family. Jeff already wants to bring down the hammer. I'm vacillating. You have until the end of January to redeem yourself. Use the window wisely.

Minnesota Twins---Hot Stove Preview

• Winter Preview----Minnesota Twins:

What should concern the rest of the American League Central is how young the Twins are on the whole.

What they need: A second baseman; a third baseman; bullpen help; a veteran starting pitcher.

Free agents: SS Orlando Cabrera; 3B Joe Crede; LHP Ron Mahay; RHP Carl Pavano; C Mike Redmond

Cabrera is going to be in a better position than he was last year following his stellar play for the Twins after being acquired from the Athletics. It would behoove him to hold his fire before joining a club (within reason; if someone offers him a solid contract----2 years----he should take it) and wait out what happens with the shortstop hungry teams like the Red Sox and Blue Jays. The Twins were said to be hoping for Cabrera to consider a move to second base as they've acquired J.J. Hardy from the Brewers to play shortstop. He's likely to have options at shortstop elsewhere, so I see him shifting as unlikely.

Crede's back problems will make it hard for him to even find a job on a big league contract.

Mahay will be in demand as lefty out of the bullpen; he's becoming more of a lefty specialist now at 38, but he can hang on for years doing that if he wants. He might be back with the Twins.

Pavano should get a decent deal somewhere even if it's only a 1-year contract; he probably won't be back.

Redmond has a great job backing up one of the best players in baseball, Joe Mauer; he's popular in the clubhouse, is a good backup even at age 38; he will be back.

Players available via trade: 2B Alexei Casilla; LHP Francisco Liriano; OF Delmon Young; RHP Joe Nathan; RHP Jon Rauch

Casilla's stock has fallen drastically after his excellent 2008 season; he was so bad in 2009 that he wound up back in the minors after barely breaking a .200 batting average; that the Twins are trying to convince Cabrera to accept a shift to second base is a bad sign for Casilla's future in Minnesota.

Liriano was atrocious last year and has shown little sign of regaining the dominating form he showed in 2006. He missed all of 2007 after Tommy John surgery. Maybe they should try him as a closer if they trade Joe Nathan.

Young was on the outs with the Twins before Justin Morneau's injury forced Michael Cuddyer to first base and Young back into the regular lineup. He played well, especially during the Twins' hot streak that catapulted them to the playoffs. Young still has great potential and is only 24. His temper and inconsistency has him available.*

*Sounds like me.

Plus Young's arbitration-eligible.

Joe Nathan melted down in the playoffs, but he might've been a topic for discussion in trade talks anyway. I doubt he'll be moved, but there's a chance of it happening with a team like the Braves who have a surplus of starting pitching and could use a closer. Derek Lowe for Nathan wouldn't be a ridiculous idea.

Rauch is making nearly $3 million next year. His contract puts him in play.

Non-tender candidates: RHP Boof Bonser; INF Brendan Harris; LHP Francisco Liriano; RHP Pat Neshek

Bonser's coming off season-ending surgery for a torn labrum and will be non-tendered. Harris and Liriano are highly unlikely to be dumped, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. Neshek had Tommy John surgery, missed most of 2008 and all of 2009; he could be non-tendered and brought back by the Twins at a lower salary.

Players to pursue:

Via free agency: RHP Rafael Soriano (Braves); LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); LHP Billy Wagner (Red Sox); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); 2B Placido Polanco (Tigers); RHP Kevin Gregg (Cubs); LHP Jarrod Washburn (Tigers); SS Miguel Tejada (Astros); 2B Ronnie Belliard (Dodgers); 2B Orlando Hudson (Dodgers); LHP Randy Wolf (Dodgers); RHP J.J. Putz (Mets); RHP Pedro Martinez (Phillies); RHP Chan Ho Park (Phillies); LHP Erik Bedard (Mariners); 3B Troy Glaus (Cardinals); LaTroy Hawkins (Astros)

The closers mentioned are contingent on what the Twins do with Nathan. If they trade him, they're not going to trust Rauch as their closer when there are so many reasonably priced stopgaps/reclamation projects that could be had on a mutually beneficial short-term basis.

For a new second baseman, Polanco can hit and play the position well defensively. Belliard and Hudson are both free agents and would fill the position on a short-term contract capably while the Twins decide what they're going to do with Casilla.

Marquis and Davis are veterans for the back of the starting rotation; Bedard is a shot-in-the-dark; Washburn is a from Minnesota and has long been linked with the Twins.

Park wants to go back to being a starter, but it's impossible to imagine a team that's going to want him as anything other than a reliever.

Glaus is returning from injury and, like Crede last year, would be available for low cost/high reward. Tejada would have to move to third base if he joined the Twins, but he could fall to them as the winter moves along.

Via trade: RHP Edwin Jackson (Tigers); 3B Jhonny Peralta (Indians); 2B Josh Barfield (Indians); RHP Michael Wuertz (Athletics); 2B Dan Uggla (Marlins); INF Jorge Cantu (Marlins); RHP Matt Lindstrom (Marlins); RHP Derek Lowe (Braves); RHP Javier Vazquez (Braves); RHP Francisco Cordero (Reds); RHP Roy Oswalt (Astros); 2B Akinori Iwamura (Pirates); 3B Garrett Atkins (Rockies); 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (Padres); RHP Chris Young (Padres)

Jackson's on the block and while the Tigers won't want to trade him within the division, if they're doing a moderate rebuild, then what's the difference?

The Braves are shopping some of their starting pitching surplus and would much prefer to trade Lowe than Vazquez, but if the Twins do decide to trade Nathan, the Braves need a closer; and Lowe pitched horribly over the second half of the season, but the contracts aren't so out of line to make it absurd. Nathan has $24.5 million coming to him through 2011; Lowe $45 million through 2012. It's not crazy.

Young could be a star if he stays healthy and increases his durability.

If the Astros are slashing salary, why not ask about Oswalt?

The Reds are shopping Cordero and he could replace Nathan. He's making a lot of money----$25 million guaranteed through 2011.

Uggla's generating a lot of interest and the Marlins are going to trade him; he'd put up his power numbers for the Twins. Cantu can play third and is very available. I'd ask about Lindstrom as well. If the Indians continue dumping salary, Peralta's shift to third base last season makes him attractive. Barfield's stock has fallen, but he was a solid rookie and is worth a shot at second base as a low-cost alternative.

Atkins is openly being shopped by the Rockies; Kouzmanoff is arbitration-eligible and I'm sure the Padres would move him and shift Chase Headly back to third base if they get the chance.

• Strange bedfellows:

Keith Law is under attack for his evident "audacity" in not selecting Chris Carpenter on his NL Cy Young Award ballot.

It's ridiculous.

As most people who read me regularly surely know, I'm no fan of Law's; I think he's a regurgitates scouting terminology and combines it with stat zombieness----the epitome of the armchair expert; but he does make sense once in awhile----more so than many of the true zealot brand of stat zombie. And the truth about his selection of Javier Vazquez ahead of Carpenter in the voting is missing the fact that Vazquez had an excellent year deserving of recognition.

Carpenter's omission didn't cost him the award; the right guy----Tim Lincecum----won; so what's the problem?

Was this in any way worse than the voting incident I mentioned yesterday with George King leaving Pedro Martinez off of his MVP ballot entirely in 2000 based on nothing but partisan politics and embarrassing stupidity? No chance. At least Law had viable reasons for making his decision.

Then the vultures come out.

Buck Martinez said of Law yesterday: "I worked with Keith Law in Toronto and he doesn't have a grip on anything."

Fair enough. But what about Martinez and his bonafides?

I've long respected Martinez if, for nothing else, than that he's one tough bastard. Any catcher who records a double play on two home plate collisions----the second out being recorded on a broken leg and dislocated ankle----deserves more than props; he deserves a "we're not worthy" reaction of supplication for being hard as nails.

That said. Martinez was another broadcaster who decided he'd managed from the booth long enough and went down on the field to take over as Toronto Blue Jays manager in 2001 and 2002, logged a 100-115 record and was fired. Having never managed at any level and taking over a club after being a broadcaster shows a remarkable amount of arrogance and it rarely works. The snap decisions, critiques and second-guesses aren't so cut and dried when it's a rapid-fire series of moves that need to be made and one has to think ten steps ahead.

The most egregious part of the vitriol directed at Law is that the man happened to have a reason for doing what he did----a legit reason. And ripping him now is just opportunistic piling on with an agenda and minds just as obtuse as the hardcore stat zombies. The extremities of the either side is just as bad as the other.

Baltimore Orioles---Hot Stove Preview

• Winter Preview----Baltimore Orioles:

Considering the division they're in it'll be hard to tell, but the Orioles are getting better.

What they need: A third baseman; a respected, veteran starting pitcher; a serviceable closer; bullpen help; a power bat for DH/1B/OF.

Free agents: RHP Danys Baez; 3B Mevlin Mora; LHP Mark Hendrickson; C Chad Moeller

Baez will get a decent offer somewhere, probably with a pretty good club to pitch out of their bullpen; possibly the Mets; Omar Minaya's always liked Baez.

Mora has been a loyal Oriole through the long years of endless losing but the marriage is ending bitterly and Mora needs a change-of-scenery. It makes sense for the participants to part ways; Mora would like a better chance to win; the Orioles need more pop from the position from a younger player.

They'd like to keep Hendrickson because he's an experienced professional who can start or relieve; there's a good chance of that happening.

Moeller will get a job somewhere as a defensive specialist/backup catcher who can handle pitchers. He won't be back.

Players available via trade: OF/DH Luke Scott; 1B/3B/DH Ty Wigginton; OF Felix Pie; LHP Rich Hill

Scott is a lefty bat with pop and he's a good guy in the clubhouse, but he's arbitration eligible and is due a big raise. GM Andy MacPhail could probably get a piece or two for him in a trade.

Wigginton was a disappointment after signing a 2-year contract as a free agent. His salary's not ridiculous ($3.5 million), but it's hard to see anyone taking it off their hands. 11 homers in 446 plate appearances----in Camden Yards no less----isn't going to cut it; but they're stuck with Wigginton unless they take someone else's bad contract. It's a possibility.

Pie was a disappointment with the Cubs; he was a disappointment with the Orioles. He'll be 25 early next year and it's time to either deliver on all his promise or accept what he is. Someone would take Pie to try and get him to mature as a player.

Hill's getting non-tendered, so no one's going to trade for him unless they think they can unlock his talent. He's shown signs of losing any and all command of the strike zone, so he's a project if someone wants to take a chance; he won't be figuring it out in Baltimore.

Non-tender candidates: LHP Rich Hill; RHP Cla Meredith; RHP Chris Ray

Hill and Meredith are gone; Ray's probably gone too, but he's a guy I'd consider keeping. He's had injury problems (Tommy John surgery), but he had a great arm and talent before then and was closing somewhat effectively. He got shelled last year, so he's likely to get non-tendered and signed by a team like the Marlins who find bargains and rehabilitate them.

Players to pursue:

Free agents: RHP Rafael Soriano (Braves); LHP Doug Davis (Diamondbacks); LHP Billy Wagner (Red Sox); RHP Kevin Gregg (Cubs); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); RHP Brandon Lyon (Tigers); RHP Fernando Rodney (Tigers); 1B Nick Johnson (Marlins); RHP J.J. Putz (Mets); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); RHP Pedro Martinez (Phillies)

Again there are the lower tier closers or those rehabbing from injuries and trying to replenish their images and/or careers. It's hard to see the Orioles getting the relievers who will be in demand like Wagner and Soriano; but they certainly could get a Myers, Gregg, Lyon or Rodney at a reasonable price and they can do the job as the closer for a bad team until someone younger and better can be groomed.

Davis is a guy who somehow gets by with stuff that can't even be described as mediocre and is a .500 pitcher every single year. Any pitcher who can will his way to getting big league hitters out with such junk should be a good influence on the posse of talented youngsters that are at long last making their way to the big leagues for the Orioles.

Pedro Martinez wants to pitch next year and could fall to the Orioles to get that chance. While under normal circumstances, Pedro wouldn't want to go to a losing situation, this is different. Given how long he waited to join a big league club in 2009, it's not out of the question that he'd be willing to go to Baltimore and be a mentor to the youngsters.

Marquis will have enough offers to go to a better team than the Orioles, but he's a veteran who gobbles innings. That's something to keep tabs on.

Via trade: INF/OF/C Brandon Inge (Tigers); OF David DeJesus (Royals); OF Marlon Byrd (Rangers); 1B/3B Jorge Cantu (Marlins); OF Cody Ross (Marlins); RHP Derek Lowe (Braves); Garrett Atkins (Rockies)

Inge could be part of the Tigers slashing of salaries and can play multiple positions well and hits for power.

DeJesus is a good player stuck in a situation in Kansas City that's worse than the one in Baltimore.

Byrd is a solid veteran with some pop. Cantu will be expensive, but would solve the Orioles third base problem and hits the ball out of the park. The same applies to Ross.

The Braves are shopping Lowe; he's expensive in money, but won't cost much in terms of players for whoever's willing to take the contract. The thing about Lowe is that he can relieve as well as start; he'd be a good influence on the Orioles youngsters.

Atkins lost his starting job for the Rockies and is being shopped. He's arbitration-eligible and will be moved.

• The "controversy" over Tim Lincecum's Cy Young Award:

There's a back-and-forth going on between the "traditional" baseball watchers (old-school) and the stat zombies because Keith Law and Will Carroll left Chris Carpenter off of their ballots entirely for the NL Cy Young Award.

Lincecum deserved to win the award as I said in my posting on October 5th----link. I had Wainwright second; Carpenter third; Javier Vazquez (who Law had second) fourth; and Jair Jurrjens fifth.

Given the arbitrary nature in which many voters who are more old-school tend to cast their ballots, it's absurd to give guys like Law and Carroll a hard time for basing their selections on what they believe. Vazquez would've won 22 games with a better bullpen, so it's not stupid to have him rated as highly as Law did.

Just like with the Hall of Fame, there are no baseline criteria for a candidate. Many times a writer's beliefs----such as a reliever shouldn't win the award under any circumstances, etc----influence him. Sometimes it's payback. Is Law's vote any more ridiculous than in 2000 when Yankees beat writer/rabid Yankee apologist George King refused to vote for Pedro Martinez for the MVP because he was a pitcher (this is after King gave votes to two pitchers the season before)?

What would King's vote have been had Pedro been wearing a Yankee uniform rather than a Red Sox uniform? Pedro deserved the MVP that year.

There are different ways to come to conclusions in situations such as this, just like in procuring players and building teams. There are plenty of other reasons to attack the stat zombies; this ain't one of them.

The right guy won anyway----Tim Lincecum.

Toronto Bue Jays---Hot Stove Preview

• Winter Preview----Toronto Blue Jays:

All things being equal, the Blue Jays situation isn't that bad.

What they need: A shortstop; a catcher; a power outfield bat; a closer; to settle the Roy Halladay situation.

Free agents: C Rod Barajas; SS John McDonald; DH/1B Kevin Millar; SS Marco Scutaro

Barajas, McDonald and Millar are all gone.

Scutaro had his career-year at age 33 (he turned 34 a month ago); someone (the Red Sox?) will sign him to the one moderate-to-big money deal he'll get in his career to be a short-term solution to their shortstop problems. The Blue Jays don't have the money nor the wherewithal to keep him, although I'm sure they'd like to; it's lunacy to pay a decent but not great player like Scutaro based on the best season he'll ever have at an advanced age.

Players available via trade: RHP Roy Halladay; 1B Lyle Overbay; 3B Edwin Encarnacion; CF Vernon Wells

The Blue Jays would be better suited to get the Halladay situation solved before spring training because it's going to be a distraction from the beginning of the season until the end. They have no chance of keeping him as a free agent after 2010; he's never going to have more value than he does now; they can't run the risk of him getting hurt next year in a Blue Jays uniform; and he wants out.

What they need to do is go to the interested teams and tell them that they'll give a window to negotiate with Halladay for a long-term extension; present their demands to each club and say the first one to come up with the goods gets the pitcher. Halladay's been nice about the trade request; but if this drags out, he may not be nice for much longer and it could eventually turn into a "get me the hell outta here!" situation----the last thing the Blue Jays need to get the biggest possible return.

New GM Alex Anthopolous has said all the right things regarding Halladay----"we're under no obligation to trade him" etc.----but he knows they have to move him before the time bomb explodes. The lesson from what happened to the Twins in the Johan Santana trade should be taken very seriously by the Blue Jays; as one team after another drops out of the bidding based on a myriad of factors, they could end up with what the Twins got for Santana----nothing.

Trade him now.

Overbay's making $7 million next year after which his contract expires. They don't have to trade him, but he's out there and has good value as an extra-base threat and excellent defensive first baseman.

Encarnacion is a superstar talent who didn't impress after coming to the Blue Jays from the Reds in the Scott Rolen trade. He's arbitration-eligible and his abilities will always lead some team to take a chance on him. He'll only be 27 in January. I can't blame teams that want to take a shot; Encarnacion is a gifted physical talent who made Dusty Baker want to strangle him. How do you get Dusty Baker mad at you? (I can relate to those that frustrate the unfrustratable; many people would like to strangle me. I can't blame them.)

You want Vernon Wells? He's yours.

Non-tender candidates: RHP Jeremy Accardo; RHP Shawn Camp; C Raul Chavez; 3B Edwin Encarnacion; OF Joe Inglett; RHP Casey Janssen; RHP Brandon League

Accardo has closed before and done well; he's had injury problems; I've always liked his stuff. They'll probably try to trade him first and get something for him, but he'll be non-tendered.

Camp is one of those journeyman type relievers who gets signed and is occasionally a big payoff for a team sifting through the rabble. He won't be a Blue Jay next year.

Chavez is arbitration-eligible and easily replaceable as a backup catcher; he'll be 37 early next year.

Inglett has use as a backup outfielder, but it won't be in Toronto next year.

Jansson is arbitration-eligible; showed great potential as a reliever in 2007 and has struggled with injuries and inconsistency since. Gone.

League is an interesting case because he's got such a great arm. He throws an effortless fastball in the upper 90s and could be a steal for someone. Never having been able to put it all together; that he allows a lot of homers and is arbitration-eligible makes him a non-tender candidate; but it's hard to give up on an arm like that. Someone could catch lightning in a bottle with League.

Players to pursue:

Free agents: RHP Rafael Soriano (Braves); 3B Melvin Mora (Orioles); LHP Billy Wagner (Red Sox); RHP Kevin Gregg (Cubs); C Ramon Castro (White Sox); OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); RHP Octavio Dotel (White Sox); C Yorvit Torrealba (Rockies); RHP Fernando Rodney (Tigers); SS Adam Everett (Tigers); 1B Nick Johnson (Marlins); C Miguel Olivo (Royals); SS Orlando Cabrera (Twins); RHP J.J. Putz (Mets); C Brian Schneider (Mets); RHP Brett Myers (Phillies); 1B Russell Branyan (Mariners); C Gregg Zaun (Rays); C Ivan Rodriguez (Rangers)

The Blue Jays have in-house candidates who would be solid bets as closers, but it wouldn't hurt them to bring in one of the available veterans who could be had on a short-term, wait-and-see, mutually beneficial deal. You help us? You replenish your value in a year or two for another chance at free agency. Soriano, Wagner, Putz, et al all fall into this category with various upsides.

One intriguing idea as a closer is Myers. He's a free agent; he liked closing when he did it with the Phillies; it suits his personality more than starting; and he was pretty good at it.

There are reasonably priced catchers who could start the majority of the games for the Blue Jays and not embarrass themselves at the plate while handling the pitching staff. They could bring Zaun back or go for Olivo and his shotgun arm and feisty demeanor. Something tells me they'll end up with Schneider.

Dye fills the bill for an outfield bat; a lot would have to fall through for him to wind up in Toronto, but it's something to keep an eye on.

If they trade Overbay, Branyan could play first base for a couple of years and do what it is that Branyan does----hit for power and walk a lot while striking out a ton. At least teams know what they're getting. Johnson's an injury-risk, but when he's healthy is super-productive offensively and defensively; he probably won't cost very much as things shake out in the winter.

There are shortstops to replace Scutaro. Everett's a slick fielder; Cabrera's had trouble finding work in the past few years so he might fall to the Blue Jays. You could do worse.

Via trade: RHP Joba Chamberlain (Yankees); RHP Phil Hughes (Yankees); RHP David Robertson (Yankees); RHP Clay Buchholz (Red Sox); RHP Michael Bowden (Red Sox); RHP Daniel Bard (Red Sox); RHP Wade Townsend (Rays); RHP Jeff Niemann (Rays); INF Gordon Beckham (White Sox); C Tyler Flowers (White Sox); 1B Kendry Morales (Angels); RHP Ervin Santana (Angels); LHP Joe Saunders (Angels); RHP Kevin Jepsen (Angels); RHP Jose Arredondo (Angels); RHP Anthony Ortega (Angels); C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Rangers); OF Nelson Cruz (Rangers); LHP Derek Holland (Rangers); RHP Tommy Hunter (Rangers); RHP Brandon Morrow (Mariners); LHP J.A. Happ (Phillies); RHP Kyle Drabek (Phillies); OF Fernando Martinez (Mets); RHP Bobby Parnell (Mets); RHP John Maine (Mets); RHP Jason Motte (Cardinals); 3B Josh Vitters (Cubs); INF Mat Gamel (Brewers); SS Alcides Escobar (Brewers); 1B James Loney (Dodgers); SS Ivan DeJesus (Dodgers); C Russell Martin (Dodgers); RHP Chad Billingsley (Dodgers); 3B Ian Stewart (Rockies); OF Dexter Fowler (Rockies); INF Eric Young Jr (Rockies); RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies); LHP Madison Bumgarner (Giants); SS Stephen Drew (Diamondbacks); RHP Max Scherzer (Diamondbacks)

This is a long list.

Without going name by name, obviously the vast chunk of these players would be designated as untouchable by their respective teams...unless the player they're getting for them is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Roy Halladay. The list of teams that are interested, intrigued, attracted or whatever of Halladay is longer than the list of teams that aren't.

Team-by-team, the Yankees would have no choice but to surrender Chamberlain or Hughes; the Red Sox are in a similar situation with Buchholz. The White Sox, Giants, Rangers, Mets etc would have to surrender a bounty of talent to get Halladay, and supposedly more to negotiate an extension before completing the transaction.

As said before, the Blue Jays are taking a major gamble if they wait too long. Teams will drop out as they calculate the asking price and the money for an extension. There's also the chance that Halladay will waive his no-trade clause just to get out of the situation in Toronto and take his free agency at the end of the year.

It's a chess game. We'll see who wins. Or if some team gets very, very lucky.

If Anthopolous is smart, he could make a trade that will have the Blue Jays in a position to realistically contend as early as next year. Their club----if you look at it objectively and ignore the turmoil spurred by the loose cannon/former GM J.P. Ricciardi----isn't bad at all.

• CHONE vs The Prince:

I'm somewhat indoctrinated myself to believing certain generalizations the stat zombies make about the validity of their chosen ways of making projections in the pre-season. It's been said in certain quarters in recent days that CHONE was something to the tune of "eerily accurate" or some such nonsense in their predicted standings.

I sort of believed it without checking.

Then I checked.

I dunno if the person or people who put forth this bit of nonsense were referring to individual predictions or the standings, but the CHONE standings, based on whatever they're based on, were in fact, far less accurate than mine!!!!

Here's the link----CHONE Predicted Standings 2009.

Now here are mine on my Amazon Author page----Paul's 2009 Predicted Standings.

Long story short, they were way off about the Rays, Indians, White Sox, Twins, Rangers, Marlins, Rockies and Giants. I was waaaaaayyyyyyy off about the Indians, Tigers, Rangers, Cubs, Padres and Rockies. I think I nailed much harder-to-get right teams such as the Rays, Marlins and Giants. But I'm ridiculed because my predictions come from what passes for my brain, and they have all sorts of complicated (and evidently dumb) calculations to come to their conclusions.

It's a farce.

• Viewer Mail 11.19.2009:

John Seal writes RE Bobby Crosby:

Prince,

Twice now you've referred to Bobby Crosby in your Hot Stove columns as either a good or a solid shortstop. I'm wondering what you're basing that on: I admittedly haven't seen any of the defensive metrics from 2009 (and besides, he played more corner infield than short last season), but I'm fairly certain that he ranked poorly in 2008. If you're relying on scouting reports, well, I'm not sure what I can say other than 'hire new scouts'. To my eyes he looked terrible the last couple of seasons with the A's (not hitting didn't help, either), and the consensus amongst fans was that, if Bobby was in the starting line-up, the game was already lost. So...what am I missing? Do I need to re-assess and re-assign ownership of the coveted Goat of the Year Award to another 2009 Athletic?

Dunno what to think of you John. On the one hand, I do need a conscience (I was born without that ethical albatross in most aspects of my life) and you're providing it in many cases. It's for my own good. Few people have the nerve to speak truth to power (such as my power is.) I don't want yes men so you're extremely valuable to my ends.

Mea culpa.

You're right.

For the most part, I mentioned Crosby based on two factors: 1) I remembered him as the Rookie of the Year with pop who was also a respected defensive shortstop; and 2) he's a free agent who could be a stopgap for various teams.

Looking at Crosby's numbers, he's been horrific; and for anyone to pick him up even as a minor league contractual flier and expect anything other than what he's been in the past four full seasons would be ludicrous.

I will do my penance.

Y'know. Within reason.

Franklin Rabon writes RE Bill Belichick:

Paul, not to bring this back up again, and I feel kind of weird defending Belichick, but I don't think his decision had much of anything to do with stats. I think in his heart/gut he firmly believed that Peyton Manning, at the end of the game was going to score no matter if he had a short field or 65 yards (about what a punt would have put him at). I think he therefore felt that his only real choice was to just keep peyton manning on the sidelines. I am very confident that a percentage never entered his thought process.

I mean you can question the logic of peyton with a short field v. peyton with a 65 yard field all day long, and that's legit. However, you have to realize that what you're questioning is more Belichick's gut that Peyton would have almost certainly scored if given the ball at his 35-40 yard line. Not some stats based argument.

I have to disagree about Belichick's attention to the percentages. He might have thought that it was the smart play to try and end the game right there in practical terms, but he knows all the numbers in every part of running his team and a game including probabilities of such a move working or not. Even if it worked at that point in the game, it was a crazy thing to do.

I keep going back to the situation. The Colts needed a touchdown. If it was a field goal they needed, then maybe----maybe----you pull something so against reality; but for a touchdown? No way. You have to trust the defense and if the defensive guru Belichick doesn't trust said defense, the Patriots have some major problems.

Jeff at Red State Blue State writes:

Perhaps the Rays could get a new stadium built if they move their team to Dagobah.

Dago-BAM!

By the way, Prince, what are your thoughts regarding Kevin "I'll Give Up a Ton of Homeruns No Problem" Gregg being tagged as a Type A free agent? This bit of news is almost as absurd as the things that come out of Sarah Palin's mouth.

Dagobah would be like going into Deliverance with puppets instead of backwoods country folk. The pre-2008 Rays would've been a perfect inhabitant, but alas, not now.

I admittedly still get confused about the Type A, Type B stuff. I'd think it's based on numerical calculations and looking at Gregg's numbers and not his overall results and shakiness, I guess he belongs in there.

I'd say that no one's giving up a draft pick for him, but then who thought a club like the Cubs----who had championship aspirations----would trust him as their closer? But they did.

Gabriel writes:

Dago-BOOYAH!!

I want the Blue Jays to keep their bullpen. It's the best part of the team, altough last year they imploded. A bullpen of League, Accardo, Hayhurst, Camp, Wolfe, Frasor, Downs and Tallet should be enough to help the Jays to win games.

I don't want to get your hopes up especially with the Halladay sweepstakes going on, but if Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch come back to join their current starters; along with the solid bullpen and a decent lineup, they're actually pretty good.

Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes:

Wishful thinking about Halladay and the Mets. I thought you said he was bound for Colorado? And Miguel Cabrera in Boston? They have way too many bars.

Leave me alone with my fantasies, Jane.

You should see the ones that aren't baseball-related.

(No you shouldn't.)

Tampa Bay Rays---Hot Stove Preview

• Winter Strategy----Tampa Bay Rays:

I was right about the 2009 Rays. Just thought I'd point that out. Again.

What they need: A veteran closer on a short-term deal; a reliable, veteran, innings-eating starter; an outfield bat; a backup catcher who can start if needed.

Free agents: RHP Chad Bradford; RHP Jason Isringhausen; RHP Troy Percival; LHP Brian Shouse; RHP Russ Springer; C Gregg Zaun

None of the Rays free agents will be back. Bradford, Isringhausen and Percival were all hurt; Shouse is a journeyman; Springer will be picked up by a contender, as will Zaun.

Players available via trade: C Dioner Navarro; SS Jason Bartlett; LF Carl Crawford; CF B.J. Upton; DH Pat Burrell; RHP Andy Sonnanstine

Navarro was atrocious at the plate last year; so bad in fact that the club traded for veteran Gregg Zaun to take a chunk of Navarro's playing time over the second half of the season. Could 2009 have been a sophomore slump for him after getting his first real chance to play every day in 2008 and doing great work offensively and defensively? Or did the pitchers figure him out? He's arbitration-eligible and the Rays could look to move him and bring in a cheaper alternative.

What is Jason Bartlett? Is he the solid but average (or slightly above average) player he always was before 2009? Or is he the All Star he was in 2009? I kept waiting for him to fall off the planet after his blazing hot start, but he wound up hitting .320 with 14 homers and 30 stolen bases, while playing fine defense. He's arbitration-eligible and is going to get a massive raise----possibly too massive for the Rays to keep him. Add in that he may have had his career-year at age 29 and he could be dealt. What would the Rays do if the Red Sox came with an offer for Bartlett? Or some other team hungry for a shortstop and willing to give up a chunk of young players?

They also have Reid Brignac ready to replace Bartlett. He has some maturing to do, but he'll only be 24 in January.

Crawford isn't specifically on the trading block; but he's not out-of-bounds either if a team calls Rays GM Andrew Friedman to have a "chat". The Rays would be foolish not to listen to offers for Crawford. He's one of the best all-around players in baseball and he's proven that year-after-year; he's in his prime at 28; he's going to be a free agent at the end of 2010 and he wants to get paid; and the Rays have no chance whatsoever of keeping him.

It'd be easier to name the teams that wouldn't want to get their hands on Crawford than vice versa. The Yankees have long been enamored of him, as have the Mets; the Red Sox, Cardinals, Angels, Mariners, blah blah blah----all would love to get Crawford and lock him up long term. The Rays showed guts in making the right call to trade Scott Kazmir when the Angels came up with a good offer (and it was a very good deal for the Rays to get out from under Kazmir's contract, his up-and-down performance and potential for injury); they should do the same with Crawford.

Trade him.

Upton's lackadaisical performance and wanting attitude has put his name in play. But he had a rotten year in 2009; he's arbitration-eligible and his value is down. I'd expect Crawford to be traded before Upton unless they traded Upton for another team's headache, which would make no sense.

Someone might be willing to take Burrell for their own bad contract. He's making $9 million next year and was heinous in 2009. That said, Burrell isn't as terrible as he was this past season; he could have a bounce back year if for no other reason than he's going to be a free agent again. He looked fat and disinterested, but he's not exactly old (33). They might find someone to take him off their hands.

Andy Sonnanstine isn't any good and the only reason he might not be traded is because he won't bring enough back to justify it. At the very least, he's not arbitration-eligible until next year, so he's still cheap.

Non-tender candidates: LHP Randy Choate; RHP Lance Cormier; OF Gabe Gross; C Shawn Riggans

The side-arming lefty journeyman Choate was used as an occasional closer in the Rays bullpen-by-committee and did a good job overall, but he's arbitration-eligible. He's gone.

Cormier is another replaceable, inexpensive journeyman that the Rays got some use from and with whom they're going to cut the ties since he too is arbitration-eligible.

Gross reverted to the weak hitter he was before a stunning show of clutch power in 2008 made him an integral part of the Rays' pennant winning club. Gone.

Riggans is a backup catcher who spent most of 2009 in the minors and will only be back if no one else wants him after he gets non-tendered.

Players to pursue:

Free agents: LHP Billy Wagner (Red Sox); RHP Kevin Gregg (Cubs); C Ramon Castro (White Sox); OF Jermaine Dye (White Sox); RHP Jason Marquis (Rockies); SS Adam Everett (Tigers); RHP Fernando Rodney (Tigers); RHP J.J. Putz (Mets); C Brian Schneider (Mets); SS Bobby Crosby (Athletics); LHP Erik Bedard (Mariners)

Wagner would be happy to pitch in Florida, not far from his West Virginia home; he'd take a short-term deal to again become a closer since he's taking his career year-by-year now anyway.

I'm no fan of Gregg, but as a cheap alternative who could close if necessary and won't complain about being a set-up man, he's not the worst option.

Putz is going to have no choice but to take a short-term flier from a reliever-hungry club; he might get a chance to close in places like Detroit, but the Rays should check in with him.

Rodney's better than Gregg and would also accept a set-up role if no job as a closer is available.

Everett and Crosby are solid defensive shortstops who could function as stop-gaps if the Rays trade Bartlett and Brignac's not ready.

Castro and Schneider are veteran catchers who'd come cheaply and wouldn't chafe at being part-timers (Castro seemed to prefer it in his time with the Mets). Schneider's a good handler of pitchers and is a better hitter than he showed in his two years with the Mets. Castro has power.

Dye will probably get a reasonable 3-year contract from someone that will put him out of the Rays' price range, but similarly to the way Bobby Abreu fell to the Angels last year, that could happen to Dye, a solid citizen and still a good player.

Bedard will end up somewhere on a cheap contract to prove his health and attitude are sound. Bedard falling to the Rays isn't an absurd notion.

Via trade: Joba Chamberlain (Yankees); Phil Hughes (Yankees); Clay Buchholz (Red Sox); Michael Bowden (Red Sox); Daniel Bard (Red Sox); Jeremy Accardo (Blue Jays); Bobby Jenks (White Sox); Brandon Morrow (Mariners); Bobby Parnell (Mets)

I'd find out exactly how enamored of Carl Crawford the Yankees and Red Sox are. What if Friedman called Brian Cashman and said, "Joba Chamberlain for Crawford, straight up, right now." Would Cashman do it? Would he think about it? It'd take more than Hughes straight up, but would Cashman think about that? Doesn't hurt to ask.

The same holds true for the Red Sox. A nice young package for Crawford and Bartlett with lots of pitching going back to the Rays might do the trick; and the Red Sox are willing to discuss anything and everything.

Accardo is the typical reliever whose value is down and could replenish himself with the Rays. He's closed before and is probably going to be non-tendered by the Blue Jays.

Jenks is arbitration-eligible; White Sox GM Kenny Williams has him on the block; he's closed in big games and gotten the job done; and Williams is willing to do just about anything. If the Rays want to get a better closer than what's out there on the cheap or stick with J.P. Howell, Jenks is an idea.

How about a package for Crawford that start with Morrow? The Mariners have screwed with Morrow just about as badly----and in a far less publicized story----than the Yankees have with Chamberlain. Morrow may have to get out of Seattle to escape ghost of Tim Lincecum hovering over him. (Morrow was drafted by the Mariners ahead of Washington State native Lincecum and never hears the end of it as if it's his fault.) Much as the debate regarding Chamberlain has centered around starting or relieving and how he's been messed with, the same has gone on with Morrow. For the record, I think Chamberlain should be a reliever; Morrow a starter. He's got star-quality stuff; he needs a new home.

Any deal involving anything with the Mets would involve Parnell. Parnell tired down the stretch after a great start, was tried in the starting rotation and faltered. His 100-mph fastball makes him an alluring talent.

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