Sunday, September 26, 2010

Sunday Lightning 9.26.2010

Much has been made of Phillies second baseman Chase Utley's hard slide into Mets second baseman Ruben Tejada to break up a double play on Friday night. You can see the "offending" play here----MLB.com clip.

This to me exacerbates one of the biggest problems the Mets have had over the past 20+ years----that they let opposing teams push them around; do the barest minimum in terms of retaliation to save face rather than actually retaliate; and think they handled something when the opposing team is smirking and saying, "yeah, they handled it" in a sarcastic tone.

Whether or not the play was clean is essentially irrelevant. For the record, it was a late slide, but wasn't dirty in terms of Utley's style of play; he wasn't trying to hurt Tejada. Those that are complaining need to look at the way Mark Teixeira drilled Angels catcher Bobby Wilson in April; or see the way Tony La Russa's teams play; or go all the way back to Hal McRae nearly picking Willie Randolph up and driving him into left field every time there was a play at second during the Yankees-Royals wars from the late 70s-early 80s.

Does Utley go to the line in the way he plays? Yes. As Carlos Beltran said in today's NY Times, Utley does these types of things like blocking bases with his knee on a stolen base attempt, but these aren't done to injure, they're done to win.

The Phillies win.

The Mets don't.

All these implications that the Mets are perceived around the league as somewhere between heartless and weak stem directly from incidents such as this. For all the complaining that they did about the slide, what exactly did they do about it? Did Beltran sliding hard into second last night----and missing both Wilson Valdez and Utley when he literally could've taken both out----"avenge" what happened with Tejada?

No.

If the Mets or any team wants to let Utley know to knock off the hard sliding and blocking of bases, then they should actually retaliate. When he blocks the base with his knee, driving one's spikes into his thigh to draw blood might do the trick; if he's insistent on pulling a Don Baylor and not moving when a ball's heading for him at the plate, then throw it close enough to his head that he has to move; and if he slides hard against one of your teammates, knock him into left field at the earliest opportunity.

Talking is talking.

Acting is acting.

Utley wouldn't have said a word had Dillon Gee drilled him last night. He'd have walked to first base with the same bemused look on his face that he always has; and if a fight had started afterwards, so what?

For all the talk from the likes of David Wright and others saying that the Mets may have to reassess the way they go into bases, I have one question: reassess what? Why aren't they going hard into the base regardless of whether it was done to them first? Are they Jedi Knights in that they only defend when attacked? This is a perfect analogy----the Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, et al are the Sith of baseball; the Mets aren't even Jedi, they're Padawans who deserve to be tossed from the Jedi Academy because they're not getting their lessons straight.

How long does this have to go on before they respond? It's meaningless that the Utley slide wasn't malicious; what's meaningful is that the Mets thought it was, yapped a lot....and did nothing in response.

This has gone on forever with the Mets. Going back to 2000 when Roger Clemens hit Mike Piazza in the head, what did the Mets do? They had Glendon Rusch hit Tino Martinez to "retaliate". Was Rusch hitting Martinez in the ass with his batting practice fastball sufficient justice for Clemens hitting Piazza in the helmet with at 95 mph fastball?

Of course not.

Supposedly, Mets manager Bobby Valentine debated whether to have the next day's starter Mike Hampton drill Derek Jeter, but decided against it. Hampton would've done it without a second thought, but the Mets did nothing until a year later when Shawn Estes was ordered to throw at Clemens----and missed!!!

You want to retaliate for Piazza? Hit Jeter in the elbow and knock him out for a couple of games.

You want to retaliate for Utley? Do as I said earlier. Spike him; drill him; knock him into the outfield.

Do something.

This is the fundamental problem with the Mets----they don't do anything other than talk about it.

As for the talk that the Mets are wimps and the Phillies are "tough guy winners", it's accurate now, but was it so earlier in the decade when the Phillies were considered just as heartless as the Mets are now? Every year they'd enter September in the thick of the playoff race and stumble at the finish; it's cyclical. Teams go through these peaks and valleys and it's only when they consciously decide to stop taking it that circumstances change.

One of the big factors in the Rays rise to prominence wasn't simply the number one draft picks that matured; it wasn't the smart and/or lucky acquisitions made by management; it wasn't that they were due. It was all through 2008 from spring training on that they stopped taking relentless abuse from the Yankees and Red Sox and they evolved into a force to be reckoned with.

After Elliot Johnson's home plate collision with Francisco Cervelli that broke Cervelli's wrist, Shelley Duncan slid spikes high into Akinori Iwamura. The old Rays might have cowered in the corner and taken it----yelling, screaming and yapping while doing absolutely nothing of consequence. The new Rays attacked the Yankees with a vengeance; it carried over into the regular season when they also had a brawl with the Red Sox. They sent a message----we....are....not....taking....it....any....more.

And they won.

Can the Mets do that?

Would the Mets do that?

The 1986 Mets were as despised around baseball in much the same fashion as the Phillies are now; and you know what? They didn't care. They let it be known that if teams wanted to make them stop, they had a couple of options: beat them and/or drop the gloves. It didn't make a difference to them one way or the other which it was and that flowed from manager Davey Johnson to team leaders Keith Hernandez, Ray Knight and Gary Carter. "You wanna go? Let's go."

There is a time and place to say, "let's win the game and worry about striking back later"; but is it that way now? What precisely do the Mets have to play for aside from pride? But they don't even do that.

Until this changes as something other than mouthy assertions that they did what needed to be done, they're going to continue to be the whipping boys for the Phillies, Braves and other teams that know if you push the Mets in the slightest fashion, they're going to fold.

It's up to them if they want to take it; if they want to continue to be losers. It it takes widespread embarrassment for the Mets to do something to change their image from a weak, disjointed frontrunner who crows when on top and whimpers when not, so be it. For some, it takes a bottoming out for things to truly change for the better. Such appears to be the case with the Mets.

When's enough going to be enough?

  • Viewer Mail 9.26.2010:

Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes RE Ichiro:


Wow. This Ichiro thing turned out to be very entertaining. Is that the reason you landed in Twitter jail last night?


It's exactly why I landed in Twitter jail. The powers that be need to realize that it takes more than a trumped up charge to shut me up; they can fold it into the other accusations and it'll be foundation for more laughter when I beat the rap.


Anonymous #2 writes RE Ichiro, the Mariners and the Red Sox:


I'm back and I'm famous! Quoted by the Prince himself!

First, let me clarify, I was wasting my time because I'm not a Mariners fan. Although I think Ichrio is a good player, it's not really worth my time trying to defend him. But, when it comes to my team (the Red Sox), that caught my interest, and I have no problem debating that topic (or in my case, rabidly frothing at the mouth).

And in regards to your last response (re: Ichiro), I don't know what to say. I'm still not that interested in defending Ichiro, and I can see that you continue to make plenty of assumptions of the abilities of players. What you or the player or some writer thinks they can do, and what can actually be accomplished, often times doesn't or won't match. Really, we'll just have to agree to disagree. For example, I don't think that Albert Pujols can "decide" to hit 400. You, apparently do. That means we are so far apart on how to approach this subject, that we would never come to any conclusion.

But, to answer some of your questions:

1. Yes, Ichiro is providing plenty to the Mariners. He's one of the few, offensively, that is.

2. Yes, I'm sure that teams are sitting around and wondering how they're going to deal with Ichiro. I'm pretty sure they are evaluating how to get every single player in the lineup out.

3. Yes, the approach Ichiro takes would influence the other teams plan of attack. But, that doesn't imply that one approach is better than the other.

The thing we can all agree on (hopefully) is that no matter what approach Ichrio takes, that Mariners team would be destined to lose 100 games. Period. The problem is not Ichiro. The problem is that terrible roster, minus Ichrio and King Felix and maybe a couple of other people I'm not thinking about. Speaking of which, how do you feel about King Felix? Let me guess, he doesn't "know how to win" and thus, isn't deserving of the Cy young? And that CC does know how to win (except when he gets rocked by the Rays with the AL East title on the line)? To be clear on my end, King Felix is the best pitcher in baseball and should absolutely win the Cy Young.


First, let's get some facts straight:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury did not crash into the wall. Jacoby Ellsbury collided with a player (Adrian Beltre).

2. Colliding with a player can happen at any position, not just left field.

3. In 2010, the Red Sox spent more money on player salaires, than they have during any other year in the history of the Boston Red Sox.

What do you mean by saying that Bay had "proven himself" as a Red Sox. Sure, maybe in the past (keyword here is past). The Red Sox were calculating his future worth (keyword here is future). What Bay had proven in the past was irrelevant, other than a baseline. By all accounts, the Red Sox did not feel that Bay was worth the money he wanted or what the Mets paid. This is indisputable, because the Red Sox did not give him the contract that he wanted, nor did they match the Mets. So, in this sense, I would say that Theo was "right". What complicates matters, is that Bay went to a ballpark that absolutely saps the power of their hitters and he ended up getting a concussion. So, we'll never know what a healthy Bay, or a Bay in a better ballpark would have produced. But, I'd probably side with Theo on this one. Bay is on the wrong side of 30, there were questions about his health (I believe the concern was his knees), and what the Mets will be the ones paying for is his decline years. This is why Minaya will most likely be gone after the season. Poor contracts such as this one.


Anonymous left more than this, but I had to excise for space. You can read the entire context here.

I'm not sure why you won't leave a name----any name.

Famous. Yah. You join the Dark Side (as you seem to be teetering on doing----all are welcome) and you might even wind up in Twitter jail. My tentacles are everywhere in places you might not expect.

Comments coming after something I write are many times more useful than positive ones. I'll debate with anyone about anything; my reputation as a screaming, raving lunatic is far off base and crafted by people who either hate me because I'm right or fear my wrath due to intensity misinterpreted as anger.

Regarding Ichiro, we can debate it forever but my case is presented with evidence that he's playing for himself at the expense of the team. Pujols batting .400 if he chose to was used as an example----it's not going to happen and it is arguable. With the Mariners, you're hitting on one of my favorite subjects----the false "genius" of GM Jack Zduriencik. I've gone on about it for months, first as a caveat that everyone needs to calm down with the appellation because the team turnaround from 2008-2009 was partially due to certain players who had years that could only be described as disasters in 2008 and teamwide poor luck did a 180 for 2009 and they won 85 games despite a weak run differential (in and of itself a questionable way to judge a team).

They're awful with Ichiro; they'd be awful without Ichiro. This is another point. Ichiro sees where things are going with the club and alters his game to pad his stats. This is a player who you don't want on your team until he changes that accurate perception.

The "King Felix doesn't know how to win" is a bit of a cheap shot considering I picked Tim Lincecum as my NL Cy Young Award winner last season despite his fewer wins than Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. If you'd read me regularly, you'd know I don't operate that way and am not making my pick one way or the other until the season is over and all the results are complete.

With the Red Sox, I consider Adrian Beltre to be a "wall"; a wall of defense; a wall of leadership; a WALL!!! So Ellsbury crashed into a "wall".

Not buying it?

All kidding aside, I vaguely remembered Ellsbury repeatedly crashing into things and got his injury confused with Josh Hamilton having crashed into a wall and injuring his ribs as Ellsbury did; I should've checked that before writing it.

It's interesting that Ellsbury's shift to left field in favor of Mike Cameron completed another circle similar to that which ended Cameron's 2005 season and indirectly resulted in him leaving the Mets as he shifted to right field to accommodate Carlos Beltran. The lack of familiarity with the position and Cameron's thought-process that he was a center fielder playing right and a center fielder is supposed to go for every ball he can get to ended with he and Beltran colliding and injuring themselves seriously.

My problem with the Red Sox isn't specifically the strategies they use----who cares? Since they win, it's somehow justified that they use slick verbiage and scapegoating to defend themselves when things don't go according to plan. It's the disingenuous nature of their statements that irritates me. They wanted to go with the bullpen-by-committee and pitching and defense because they wanted to try them in an experiment in stat-zombieing. This is fine, but was it necessary to slam Jason Bay on the way out the door by ripping his defense and citing "injury-risks" where there seemed to be none?

Bay was nothing but a loyal and productive Red Sox player; if they didn't want to pay him, didn't want to keep him, then fine. But say it. I went into this at the time----there was no need to do as they've done with all their departing stars like Nomar Garciaparra, Pedro Martinez, Bronson Arroyo and Bay and rip them on the way out the door with a negative whisper campaign. What I found laughable was the way Bay's defense was terrific for the Mets and UZR (the defensive metric that said how bad Bay was) was adjusted at mid-season and, lo and behold, Bay's better than initially thought!!

I don't believe Citi Field negatively affected Bay as much as New York did. Had he not gotten hurt, his numbers would have mirrored Beltran's in his first year with the Mets----around 15 homers, 75 RBI and questions about his intestinal fortitude for the big city itself. Some players need time to get used to New York and I think Bay is going to be back to his 25 homer self in 2011.

It's the storytelling aspect of the Red Sox that grates on me. In 2006, they claimed they didn't have the financial wherewithal to go after the same players the Yankees did, but spent lavishly after the season to fill all their holes. They claim to not be in the financial stratosphere of the Yankees, but are in the financial stratosphere of the Yankees.

My assertion that they're using the pitching-and-defense idea as a greater plan was part of letting Bay leave; going after Cameron and Beltre; signing Lackey and eschewing the known basher that Bay was for a new direction. A direction that includes moving past the David Ortiz years, getting younger and saving money to go after Carl Crawford and/or Adrian Gonzalez. Stat zombies lust after Cameron for reasons I've never quite understood. He's a good player, but is streaky and losing a step defensively; and he strikes out a ridiculous amount of the time. No one, nowhere, no how could have expected Beltre to have the year he's had in their wildest imaginations considering his career history.

Much like their pursuits of Jose Contreras and Carl Pavano, they were lucky in not getting those players just as they've been lucky with Beltre.

And I warned them about John Lackey in my book and nailed it almost on the dot:


The Red Sox attempts at improving the defense was done with a pitcher of Lackey’s ilk in mind. He pitches to contact and gives up about as many flyballs as ground balls; this could be an issue in Fenway. Balls that hit the Green Monster or go over the fence won’t be tracked down by Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury or vacuumed up by Adrian Beltre. I’d be worried about Lackey both health-wise and in performance.


He's been healthy; he's been fine with ground balls; and he's gotten blasted when balls are in the air. His overall performance hasn't been as bad as his record looks; he's been shaky at best and like A.J. Burnett with the Yankees, overpaid for what he is.

With Little's decision to leave Martinez in the game in game 7 of 2003, it's been beaten to death. Here are my issues: if the Red Sox didn't trust Little; if he wasn't on the same page as upper management in the deployment of the bullpen----if he wasn't listening to them----they should've fired him before it got to a game 7 where his recalcitrance would cost them as it did. Period. The call itself wound up wrong, but had Bernie Williams's looping base hit wound up in Orlando Cabrera's glove, what would be said? I'm not going to rip into Little for sticking with his star pitcher in that situation; the one thing I've always credited Little for in spite of his strategic mishaps was that he did what he felt was right without fear of reprisal. The front office knew this and if he didn't listen, he should've been replaced.

The pitchers you mention----Scott Williamson, Mike Timlin and Byung-Hyun Kim----are not names I'd prefer to trust over Martinez regardless of how well they'd pitched in the playoffs. Should Little have yanked Martinez? I'm not prepared to say that considering Martinez's greatness. It didn't work. That bullpen was not "excellent". Sorry. Martinez was. It failed.

You come up with phantom arguments that have no basis----"it cannot be proved"----but it can be proved by history and understanding the human aspect of people in general and athletes in particular. Pitchers whine when they don't have a defined role; the only way a true closer-by-committee can work is under the circumstances I laid out yesterday; and most teams would prefer to have a star pitcher they can trust in the ninth inning rather than going by matchups with mediocrity.


The Brooklyn Trolley Blogger (Brooklyn Capo) also writes RE Anonymous #2:


Identify yourself. Step into the light Son! Put a name behind them thar comments. ~ (Capo)


I'm pursing my lips, widening my eyes and exhaling as I make a command decision Mike; this boy's got potential and he's considering joining the Dark Side. There's use there for us. Let him make his decision. He's pondering....

I was a guest with Sal at SportsFan Buzz a week ago Thursday talking about the stretch run. Go to Sal's site to download it on I-Tunes or click it directly here.

My book is still available on Amazon, I-Universe and Barnes and Noble.com. It's available for download as an E-book here. You can also now get it for less that five bucks on BN via download here.

Saturday, September 25, 2010

I Come To Praise Ichiro, Not To Bury Him

  • Straight to Viewer Mail 9.25.2010:

The concept that I'm attacking Ichiro Suzuki is pure nonsense. Because he's so talented and gifted, Ichiro has the ability to do more than what he does because what he does is based on a self-interested attempt to accumulate as many hits as he possibly can.

Baseball is an individual sport in a team-concept; this lends itself to the occasional "me" player who's going to chase what he wants to achieve rather than what would benefit his team. The difference between playing for oneself and playing for the team is imperceptible, but easy to spot if one knows what to look for.

Here's the mail.


Anonymous #1 writes RE Ichiro:


You are full of it. Your whole argument against Ichiro relies on your belief that he can hit 25-30 home runs "if he chooses to". Who made you the God of "what if"? You don't know what he can or can't do. The fact is, hitting a MLB fastball or breaking ball is not as easy as you seem to think. The fact that Ichiro does it so consistently is extremely praiseworthy. The only reason the Mariners are so bad is that there is no one else on the team advancing Ichiro after he gets on base. All he needs is some better teammates. You compare him to batters like Gwynn and Rose, but it sounds like their stats are pretty similar to Ichiro's stats. You assume it is because they adjusted their games because they had decent teammates who could help them out, but you ignore the possibility that maybe they, like Ichiro, just weren't power hitters. Here's what I suggest, look at the Mariner's seasons. Look at how many 1-2 run games they lost. Now, imagine if Ichiro just had one individual averaging 1-2 more hits per game. Even if that only led to an additional score in half those games and the Mariners only went on to win a quarter of the games, they would be a completely different team. They would be in the playoffs every year. You would be eating your words. Ichiro would be an MVP candidate every year.


If I'm full of it then apparently so are many writers from various schools of thought who insist Ichiro can hit more homers. Just recently, Mark Bauman wrote about Ichiro's power potential here; Laura Vescey wrote it eight years ago here; a stat guy at BaseballEvolution.com came to the same conclusion here; but never mind any of that, here's an interesting statement from someone who has a pretty good handle on Ichiro:


"If (Ichiro were) allowed to bat .220, (he) could probably hit 40. But nobody wants that."


The comment was edited for artistic license because the speaker was....ICHIRO!!!!

What he actually said was: "If I'm allowed to bat .220, I could probably hit 40. But nobody wants that."

Did you read what I wrote? That Pete Rose----while also a self-interested player----did what the team needed him to do including hitting for power occasionally; throwing his body all over the place; playing every single day; and switching positions consistently and learning to play those positions well enough that he wasn't a defensive liability. Tony Gwynn was considered to be a selfish player as well and in a way, he was; he openly feuded with Jack Clark----Clark, loud and abrasive considered himself the ultimate team player and took exception to Gwynn's relentless pursuit of a high batting average at the expense of what the team needed.

Individualism in a team concept.

Ted Williams----who loved Gwynn and was very close with him----was always harassing Gwynn to hit for more power. To paraphrase from memory, Williams would tell Gwynn that he was a big guy and had the strength to hit home runs; Gwynn never really took advantage of this because, for the most part, he didn't need to based on the players he had surrounding him; the same thing with Rose.

Rose had seasons of 16 and 15 homers and was usually good for about 10 in his prime; he could have hit more if he sacrificed his batting average and hit total. He was also a winning player. What purpose would it have served for Rose to start swinging for the fences and diminishing his on base percentage with Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan and Tony Perez----three Hall of Famers---behind him? It didn't.

Then you look at Rose's frequent position changes. Never a complaint; never any whining; he was needed at third base to get Dan Driessen or George Foster into the lineup? He moved to third base. He was needed in the outfield? He became a Gold Glove outfielder.

The silly statement of: "The fact is, hitting a MLB fastball or breaking ball is not as easy as you seem to think" is absolute garbage. Hitters can and have adjusted their approach to produce different results. Have you ever heard of a hitter trying to push the ball to the right side with a runner on second base to advance him to third? Is this done out of pure luck? Or is it bat control? Trying to hit a flyball with a runner on third base? The same idea can be translated to hitting the ball out of the park. What about hitters who've changed their swing to take advantage of their home ballpark?

Wade Boggs decided in 1987 to hit for more power and did without sacrificing his average; Boggs also made it his life's work to use the Green Monster in Fenway for target practice. Dave Winfield decided in 1984 to hit more line drives, saw his home run output drop to 19, but batted .340. Don Mattingly learned to turn on the inside fastball and evolved into a power hitter by whacking balls into the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium.

Which is more useful? Which helps the team more?

Keith Hernandez said the following about Willie McCovey in his book, If At First:


McCovey was awesome. Ted Williams said he had the sweetest swing in the game. "Now watch this man swing" was Dad's instruction. If Willie McCovey had hit for line drives all the time, and not homers, he would have batted .320 for his career.


Do you know more than Keith Hernandez and Ted Williams? Do you have any basis for the idiotic assumption that hitters can't attempt to hit the ball out of the park or go for singles as Ichiro does?

What of Ichiro when he was asked to play center field?

He did it, but didn't like it. He's passive aggressive which is worse than an overt whiner. It's as if he's saying, "I'll play out there if you force me, but I'm also going to make your life miserable while doing it". Similar to his dislike of Mike Hargrove and absence of clear evidence (complete with denials from all parties) that this simmering tension had anything to do with Hargrove's resignation coinciding with Ichiro agreeing to a contract extension, it's a perfect crime----there are no fingerprints to tie Ichiro into the act; he's getting his way; and he's able to maintain the veneer of "honor" for his fans and countrymen.

You're capriciously grabbing numbers while missing the overall hypothesis. If I, as you suggest, take the games in which the Mariners have lost by 1-2 runs, 1-2 hits or whatever, that doesn't take away the fact that Ichiro, if he were hitting in the middle of the lineup, would be of more use than he is as a leadoff hitter.

Look at the current Mariners----a terrible team----and place Ichiro in the middle of the lineup. Bat Chone Figgins leadoff and put Rob Johnson second (batting .191, but his OBP is 100 points higher than his average), would Ichiro have more opportunities to have his hits actually matter? Even if he still refused to hit the ball out of the park? Of course he would. Having a leadoff batter doing what Ichiro does is absolutely useless for a team like the Mariners.

If you stuck Ichiro on the Yankees, Red Sox or any other team with better personnel and a more structured atmosphere, you would: A) have more use for his current game of hitting singles; and B) those clubs wouldn't put up with his demanding nature because they don't have to put up with his demanding nature as the Mariners seem to believe they do.

If Ichiro was more of a team-oriented player, I wouldn't be eating my words because I'd be right and he would be an MVP candidate every year based on his value to the team; not because he's amassing specious numbers designed to get himself into the Hall of Fame.


Anonymous #2 writes RE Ichiro:


I'm no "stat guy" either, so this isn't coming from that perspective, but man ... how do I say this kindly ... that was a pretty bad article.

Just as the 2nd commenter said, your *cough* "analysis", is based on your "belief" that he can hit 25-30 home runs. Really? That's your argument?

And let's say he does try to hit 25-30 HR's, and he does it, sacrificing, as you say, "his precious batting average". Fine. Let's say this is possible. Well do some "analysis" and tell me what you think his batting average will drop to. Or what number will be acceptable.

He's a career 330 hitter, so what is your assumption? That it will drop to, 315? 300? Let's say it drops to 250. Do you know it won't? You seem to think it will drop to a slightly less number, allowing him to be unbelievably better. But maybe Ichiro, while switching his game to make it more appealing to you, doesn't become the player you think he could become. Maybe the 25-30 homers makes him worse than he is now (based on the other numbers used to judge a hitter).

On top of that, it's not enough to do the following: "He hits singles. He plays great defense. He has a great arm. And he can run." All things that help a team win. No, Ichiro, with his new stat line of 25-30 HR's, will cause the Seattle Mariners to score 200 more runs (as a team) on top of what he is contributing now. Because 200 more runs is about what is necessary to make the M's a decent team.

So, because every other player in the M's lineup is dog poop, it's Ichiro's fault. He should have adjusted and drove in 300 RBI's this year (which even with 125 HR's may be impossible, because no one on that M's team can get on base). Pick your favorite player: Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols, etc. You put them in Ichrio's position, and you know what?, the M's would still stink. And then you'd tell us how Pujols should adjust his game too.

I mean, this is just terrible analysis and thinking. And you put it out to the world to see. I'd be embarrassed. Anyhow, I've already wasted enough of my life posting, and I'm not even an M's fan or an Ichiro fan. I just couldn't believe what I was reading and had to respond.


As I stated to the first commenter, it's not just me that says Ichiro can hit more homers----Ichiro himself has said as much. There's no way to absolutely quantify whether or not his average would drop, but the question is which would be of more use to his club? Is Ichiro providing anything to the Mariners now as he gets his 230+ hits with 40 of the extra base variety and about 8 homers?

Did you read what I wrote or did you skim after you got all agitated and respond out of context? Are teams sitting around and wondering how they're going to deal with Ichiro and his multitude of singles? Or would his conscious decision to hit more homers----even 20 homers a year----influence their plan of attack? As of right now, Ichiro is a "yeah, whatever" player. Let him get his singles. So what?

If Albert Pujols decided one year that he wanted to hit .400, he could do it. He'd have to drive the ball to the opposite field; increase his walks; sacrifice around 15 homers a year. Do you know what would happen around baseball? There'd be champagne-fueled celebrations because he'd hit .400 with 17 homers and 90 RBI and hurt his team while doing it!

The Mariners would be just as bad with the players you mention, but it wouldn't be because of said players dictating to upper management what position they play and who's managing the team. Pujols and Jeter----the players you bring up----have the right to do that; Ichiro, considering the teams upon which he's played and their annual non-contention, does not.


Mike in LA writes RE Ichiro:


Saw this linked on Baseball Reference while researching Gwynn. Gotta ask: who goes "diva" to get singles? Ichiro or Gwynn or Rose would make any team better. Torture that any way you like to be a negative.


Again, did you read what I wrote? The diva behavior extends to subtle (and not-so-subtle) off-field bullying of the club in terms of management and position and that he's going for the types of hits that don't help his team as much as the increase in power would.


Anonymous #2 (yes, the same guy as above) writes RE the Red Sox:


Wait a minute, you think the 2010 Boston Red Sox had a season not up to expectations, because they focused on "pitching and defense". That's the reason.

Of note, the Red Sox have a better record than the Texas Rangers. But their season is going to be viewed as a success! Nope, an arbitrary "divison" had nothing to do with it, it was that "pitching and defense". And, of course, come playoff time you will say: "pitching and defense wins championships!" Because I've heard that 1 billion times in my lifetime. I digress, but this is why their needs to be no divisions, but instead, just grab the four best records.

Anyhow, back to the topic, the injuries to, basically, an all-star team had NOTHING to do with it. Nope! It's because Theo Epstein focused on "pitching and defense". Daniel Nava, Darnell McDonald, Ryan Kalish, Kevin Cash, nope, they had nothing to do with it. It was that "pitching and defense". Losing Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Mike Cameron to SEASON ending injuries had nothing to do with it! Josh Beckett missing half the season (and partially ineffective when actually pitching, because of his health)? Nope. Having your starting catcher (Martinez) and backup catcher (Varitek) both out at the same time (Martinez for a month+, Varitek for 2 months+)? Nope!

On top of that, before the Red Sox lost half an all-star team, they were something like 1st or 2nd in runs scored. In fact, they are currently 3rd .. in ALL of baseball! Unfortunately, the Rays and Yankees are 1st and 2nd. So, it's not like Theo didn't focus on "batting" too. Man, would I have loved to see what a healthy Red Sox team would have been like this year. Because that team would, dare I say, be better than the one we see now. You know, the one with the fourth best record in the AL. Stupid Theo!

Lastly, "closer by committee", did that so called fail because it was a bad idea? Or did it fail because the committee was comprised of Chad Fox, Scott Sauerbeck, Rudy Seanez, and Todd Jones? Nope. Those guys would have been Mariano Rivera in his prime, only if they weren't in that darn-fangled closer by committee thing! Fire Theo!


I see anonymous commenters as the old masked men from professional wrestling. According to the storyline, the Spoiler was possibly an escaped fugitive trying desperately to win Ric Flair's NWA World Championship to acquire the power necessary to have the charges against him expunged.

For someone with better things to do with his life, you're spending an awful lot of time reading my writing and formulating responses. It's strange how this works in that the people who hate me read and react to me more than those who love me. It's one of the mysteries of life.

Anonymous #2 is responding to my posting from Thursday----Plans And Schemes.

If you knew what you were talking about, you'd understand what I'm saying. The pitching and defense strategy is a microcosm of the mistakes the Red Sox made and it has nothing to do with the idea itself----much like the closer-by-committee.

The signing of Mike Cameron and shifting of Jacoby Ellsbury to left field are two of the proximate causes of the Red Sox ills this season----had they not signed Cameron to take over in center field, Ellsbury wouldn't have been in left field to crash into the wall and injure himself to begin with. To suggest that the Jason Bay failure in New York automatically implies that the Red Sox were "right" in letting him go is a logical fallacy. Bay had already proven himself as a Red Sox; Cameron has been an injury-plagued disaster. All are tied in with one another.

This was all part of another plot by the Red Sox to transition from what they were while saving money and having an explanation for doing it.

Actually, the bullpen is more important to winning a championship. Mariano Rivera with the Yankees and the repeated failures of the Braves year-after-year bear this out; but that's arguable I suppose.

It's amazing that the Red Sox have been able to patch in such suspicious journeymen and continue to win and that's a tribute to the organization as I've said repeatedly, but you're a fool if you think the strategy of pitching and defense was anything more than an excuse to execute a larger plan of moving forward and, similar to the closer-by-committee, a stat zombie tenet they wanted to try to see if it worked.

Since you mention the closer-by-committee and you're being so snarky, do you know how many games the horrific bullpen from 2003 cost the Red Sox?

23.

That's twenty-three!!

Check it. It's a fact.

For all the blame laid at the desk of Grady Little, had there been a competent set of relievers (whose absence is the fault of Epstein and the front office) there's every possibility that the Red Sox might've avoided the Yankees entirely in the 2003 playoffs and won the World Series a year earlier and not resorted to blaming Little and backing away from their refusal to have a prototypical closer when they signed Keith Foulke.

As for the strategy of the closer-by-committee? Of course it's a logical way to run a bullpen in a perfect world, but are we in a perfect world? Or are we dealing with human beings who want the "glory" of the save stat and the resulting paycheck? The only way a closer-by-committee can work is with a team that has a front office and manager on the same page; a group of relievers who are minimally paid or disposable so they can be dispatched if they begin to complain about the absence of defined "roles"; and guys who can actually pitch. The Red Sox had the second tenet, but missed the other two and it cost them dearly in 2003.

You're absolving your GM for that gaffe while proving my point. Nice straddle.


Anonymous writes RE Ichiro:


Fortunately, Ichiro doesn't care what you think. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2012919629_ichiro17.html?prmid=obinsite

Ultimately most of your claims are based on your unsubstantiated theory that because Ichiro hits the occasional home run, he could hit many more without sacrificing anything, which is pretty much completely bogus. It also comes off as stupid and whiny when you tell us how you don't want to hear about how good a player he is statistically, just because you want to trash him, but can't find a stat to do it.


I'm pretty sure this is Anonymous #2 again, but am not positive beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Did I trash Ichiro? Or did I credit him for being so good that he----unlike your basic big leaguer (replacement player as it were)----can do much more than he actually does and is being self-interested to the point of team detriment for his steadfast refusal to do so?

Either you can't read or you're picking and choosing to take a poke at me. This is fine, but to be completely honest, you're outgunned in every possible permutation when coming after me.

We've got anonymity; condescension; poor to non-existent reading comprehension; ridicule; and illogical/ignorant arguments. You've covered all the bases and not just first base (with singles) as Ichiro does. You're more versatile than Ichiro!! Dunno about valuable, but that's relative.

As for Ichiro not caring what anyone thinks, it's all part of the problem. If he cared about his teammates and winning, he'd be more agreeable to doing what needs to be done to win rather than collecting hits and accomplishing nothing in a teamwide scheme.


Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes RE Ichiro:


Ichiro is the greatest player I wouldn't want on my team. Did that make sense? He has all the skills you mentioned, but he gives me the creeps.


The thing is he wouldn't behave this way with the Yankees and his current game would be very productive with Alex Rodriguez, Jeter, Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, et al behind him.


Jeff (Street Boss) at Red State Blue State writes RE Ichiro and Anonymous #2:


Totally with you on the Ichiro thang. And if I can figure out who Anonymous is I'll put in a work order for ya.


I'm the Boss of this Family; and it's good practice to get the work in myself every now and again.

It's dark comedy that the comments emanated from the exact same posting in which I made a cogent case as to why people shouldn't comment anonymously.

Force Lightning is frightening to behold, is it not? Especially when someone is in the receiving end of it at full power. I'd say it's been handled in the same way that led to my elevation to Boss, wouldn't you?

It's a dirty job, but someone's gotta do it.

Might as well be me.

I was a guest with Sal at SportsFan Buzz a week ago talking about the stretch run. Go to Sal's site to download it on I-Tunes or click it directly here.

My book is still available on Amazon, I-Universe and Barnes and Noble.com. It's available for download as an E-book here. You can also now get it for less that five bucks on BN via download here.

Friday, September 24, 2010

Ichiro In Context

  • What....does....he....do....to....help....his....team?

Here's a clip from Buster Olney extolling the "greatness" of Ichiro Suzuki:


The most significant game in the majors Thursday had no bearing on the top of the standings: In Toronto's victory over the Mariners, Ichiro Suzuki collected his 200th hit(...)



About Ichiro: He's a lock to be voted into the Hall of Fame five years after he retires, and he's been so good you wonder if he'll have a shot at challenging the highest standards for voting percentage. Incredibly, he has a shot at 3,000 hits for his career -- he's at 2,230 and counting -- and he has been a dominant, shutdown defender who has won the Gold Glove in every year of his career. He's been one of the sport's best baserunners in every year of his career.


Fine. All of these points are factually accurate. But are they true? Are they fair? Is Ichiro as great as everyone seems to suggest or is he the epitome of the selfish stat compiler? The player who not-so-subtly uses his status as one of the Mariners few gate attractions and behaves like a diva to get his way in terms of management and salary? Someone who is more interested in his lofty hit total than doing what he needs to do to win?

If you're reading me at all with any regularity, you know I'm no stat guy; that I believe stats to be a tool for a conclusion rather than the conclusion in and of itself; Ichiro's stats, on the surface are impressive; but the tale of Ichiro cannot be told simply by relating statistics to bolster the case for his "greatness".

Ichiro is overpaid; he's selfish; he's a diva; and he's calculating enough to survey the situation and adjust his game based on what's happening with the team.

I don't want to hear about WAR; I don't want to hear about his defense; I don't want to hear about his batting average; and I don't want to hear about his speed.

Ask yourself this: is Ichiro a player for whom the opposition has to plan? Do they need to worry about him and that he can singlehandedly wreck a game like Albert Pujols? Alex Rodriguez? Miguel Cabrera? Ryan Howard?

What does he do to help his team win?

He hits singles. He plays great defense. He has a great arm. And he can run.

If Ichiro were an Otis Nixon or even a Jason Tyner and didn't have the capability to do more than he does, then fine, but Ichiro could hit home runs if he was willing to sacrifice points off his precious batting average; if he decided to do more to help his team----a team that desperately needed someone to hit the ball out of the park----win. Instead, he chooses to collect singles.

Of his 2230 hits, only 417 have been for extra bases. Is this good? Is it useful for a team like the Mariners? In comparison, Tony Gwynn had 3141 hits and 2378 singles. Gwynn altered his game based on what his team needed. In 1997, he drove in 119 runs because he was the only one who could do it in lineup that was essentially popgun; the 1984 pennant winning Padres had men behind Gwynn who could hit the ball out of the park in Steve Garvey, Graig Nettles and Kevin McReynolds.

He adjusted his game.

Pete Rose was the same way----did Rose need to hit homers for his contending teams, the Reds and the Phillies? Of course not. In a lineup with George Foster, Johnny Bench and Joe Morgan with the Reds; and Mike Schmidt and Greg Luzinski with the Phillies, he did what he had to do for the team.

Does Ichiro do that?

Look at Ichiro's annual output and compare it to the amount of money he makes. Ichiro is paid $17 million a year and used his impending free agency, popularity in Seattle and gaudy numbers to: A) get the contract; and B) force the Mariners to dump manager Mike Hargrove in favor of John McLaren.

It's not as if the Mariners can't afford to pay Ichiro----they have money to spend; but a player who has the audacity to dictate to the club who the manager is going to be had better have the hardware to back it up; and I'm not talking about individualistic hardware like MVPs, Rookie of the Year, Gold Gloves, and batting titles. I'm talking about championship hardware. Magic Johnson and Mark Messier famously forced out coaches with whom they clashed----but both had championship pedigrees. If things had continued to spiral for the Yankees in early 2009 under Joe Girardi, I'm convinced that Derek Jeter would have gone to GM Brian Cashman and the Steinbrenners and said that it wasn't working----and he'd have been right to do it. Occasionally in the player-coach/manager battle, the player is right.

Was Ichiro right? Was it his place to do such a thing as leverage his free agency and popularity to force Hargrove out in favor of a manager more palatable to him? And how did it work out?

This isn't to imply Hargrove is Connie Mack because he's not; Hargrove was a competent manager. McLaren was a disaster and the Mariners wouldn't have been any better without Ichiro than they were with him. He is not a difference-maker for a weak lineup. If he played for the Yankees; Phillies; Red Sox; or Rays, he'd score so many runs because he's always on base with his singles, then his slap-hitting would be useful. But for the Mariners? He might as well be playing for the Pirates or Royals. He doesn't do anything other than what suits Ichiro's relentless pursuit of numbers.

The most glaring aspect of all this is that if he chose to do it, Ichiro could hit 25-30 homers. So what if he'd sacrifice 20-30 points on his batting average? For a team that has been so offensively challenged that their lack of offense has been called "historically horrible" by Jayson Stark, the Mariners needed more from Ichiro. The numbers back Stark up.

Here are two of the most disgusting points about the Mariners from Stark's blog (it's ESPN Insider content, so linking it does no good unless you're a subscriber, but here it is in case you are----link):


With only 13 games left in the season, the Mariners have scored 472 runs. That means they still haven't scored as many runs -- for the whole season -- as the Red Sox scored before the All-Star break (481).


The Mariners also have a .298 team on-base percentage. And they'll be not so delighted to learn that no AL team in the DH era has ever had an OBP under .300 in a full season. The '81 Blue Jays (.286) and Twins (.293) did pull that off during the '81 strike season, at least.



I'm not going to turn this into another written bombing campaign against the "genius" Jack Zduriencik. All you need to do is look at the Mariners on and off the field to come to your own conclusions regarding that; he inherited Ichiro and can't trade him.

This is about Ichiro himself.

That's the operative word.

Selfish.

Me.

I got my hits.

An offense that houses the likes of Casey Kotchman, Jack Wilson, Jose Lopez and Rob Johnson is historically inept. Could Ichiro's penchant for hitting singles have worked if the Mariners acquisition of Milton Bradley as their main power guy succeeded? Yes. But could someone from the Mariners have approached Ichiro and said, "we need you to bat third; and we need you to hit for more power even if it means sacrificing some hits" and gotten a positive response? Considering the way he's exerted his will on the team for years, what do you think he would've said and done?

He'd have pouted and rebelled.

This is not greatness.

This is a collector of numbers and a complementary player paid like a superstar. You can parse it any way you choose; laud his magic wand-style bat handling; look at his stats and talk about how "great" he is; but examining the entire story and everything he's done since coming to the Mariners and----most importantly----that the team has been consistently horrible after his initial three seasons in North America (and when there was a solid supporting cast to prop him up), and you know the truth; the truth that Ichiro is going to amass a statistical profile that will make people in 50 years look at them and say, "wow" when they should actually be saying "what?" and wondering what the big deal was; why he's been allowed to get away with the ruse on the public for so long, been paid so lucratively and accorded the team-wide power he still has.

  • More honorifics:

What world are we living in which public outcry and the masses dictate to an independent entity what they should or shouldn't be doing to honor a rival? And if the rival has said negative things about the boss of said entity, why should any such thing have been expected?

There's been much ado about nothing regarding the Florida Marlins decision not to have a ceremony/farewell to Braves manager Bobby Cox as he makes the rounds in his final season as Braves manager.

For what?

Are the Marlins obligated to give a plaque to Cox? Even if Cox hadn't invited the ire of Marlins tempestuous owner Jeffrey Loria with his comments about the Marlins' firing of Fredi Gonzalez, they'd still have reason to ignore the peer pressure that comes with "everybody's doing it".

Cox said the following about Loria after Gonzalez's ouster (you can read the whole article here):


“I know that guy [Loria] is unpredictable, but I was still….After everything [Gonzalez] has done for that guy, are you s——- me?,” Cox told reporters before Wednesday’s game against the White Sox. “[The Marlins] have gone down to the end every year, playing their asses off. That guy doesn’t appreciate anything. He’s one of those guys that thinks you change [for the sake of change]. He’s always wanting to fire the coaches, always. That’s his history.”


And the Marlins, owned by Loria, were supposed to give Cox a plaque after that?

Please.

I have the greatest respect for Bobby Cox; he's a Hall of Fame manager; but to say that a team----any team----has to be ostracized for refusing to give him a day for his accomplishments with another organization is ludicrous. If I were Loria and Cox had said those things about me, I wouldn't have given him a day either; nor would I care about what anyone said regarding the decision.

  • Viewer Mail 9.24.2010:

Jane Heller at Confessions of a She-Fan writes RE the Mets:


You've been predicting a Bobby Valentine job for a long time now, so I'm going with him as the Mets next manager.


I'm done predicting because I've said just about everything concerning Valentine that can possibly be said. The Mets, Marlins, Mariners, (insert team here)----and he's still sitting at a desk for ESPN. In a way, I'd be right in a betting on every horse in the race sorta way. Doesn't count.


Jeff (Street Boss) at Red State Blue State writes RE Bobby Valentine:


Following on Jane's comment, Bobby Valentine better be managing somewhere next season. You've made me jump in on the hype, Prince. I wanna see Bobby, at someone's helm, stirrin' up crap!


He was "getting" the Marlins job and then....POOF!!! Maybe it was Bobby V being Bobby V or some other reason it didn't work out. I'll say he's managing again next year, but who knows?


Max Stevens at The Lonely One writes RE the Mets:


Prince, you are more optimistic than I am that the Mets will implement a coherent plan for growth and success in the near and long term. I've come to the painful conclusion that as long as Jeff Wilpon is making decisions, the organization will continue to make reactive, short sighted moves, and they will continue to flounder, perhaps remaining competitive for flashes here and there, but ultimately fading at the decisive moments.


The Brooklyn Trolley Blogger (Brooklyn Capo) also writes RE the Mets:


OK...I guess everyone left the job of contrarian to me then. I want no part of Bobby Valentine here again. That's just my moving forward mentality. We've been there and done that. What I feel has nothing to do with Valentine per se. I just can not envision Valentine and Jeff Wilpon co-existing peacefully. The relationship between Valentine and Fred Wilpon is already compromised. You once told me they (Fred and Valentine) need to get over it. That may be true but it is what it is. The two do not like each-other no matter what you or me want for this team. The truth is, there is no better place for Valentine and his ego, not to mention his ability and acumen, than right here. I agree with all that. But in Met Year 8 A.D. in the Age of Wilponianism...Bobby is a round peg in a square hole.


Here's my problem with the continued attacks on Jeff and Fred Wilpon: the Mets were one game away from a World Series they would've won in 2006; they had playoff spots essentially locked up in both 2007 and 2008 had collapses, injuries, hot streaks from other clubs and other circumstances not sabotaged them. Would Jeff be so awful then had the club made the playoffs and copped a World Series in one of the three years? Even if it had played out identically as it has in 2009-2010?

He's a convenient target and given the reputation he has, it's somewhat understandable that he's seen as such a buffoon; but putting oneself in his position is constructive. I know if I owned the club, I wouldn't see it as so absurd to want my head of baseball operations to run his decisions through me----it's not too much to ask. People speak from both sides of their mouths on the issue of "outsiders" running teams.

No, Jeff supposedly has no background in scouting and is treated shabbily because of it, but then you see the likes of Ari Kaplan and Jeff Luhnow----with no inside baseball experience----hired by teams (the Cubs and Cardinals respectively) and these hirings are called "outside the box" and "progressive".

Which is it?

The Mets are too responsive to public ridicule and rather than doing what's best for the club, they react before coming up with a coherent strategy. Perhaps now they're going to do something constructive for the future of the franchise----a franchise that has the money, fan base and foundation to compete very quickly. If they do as they did with Omar Minaya and basically beg him to come and "save" the franchise, it's going to be the same mess in a year or two. If they make an intelligent, well-thought-out hire like Bobby Valentine or Tony La Russa to manage; and a Rick Hahn/Logan White/Jerry DiPoto to help Minaya, then they're on the right track.

I find it laughable that the quotes from media-types always emanate from "rival" executives or "people with knowledge" of the Mets. Who knows where these are coming from and whether it's someone who's saying things to bolster the talking points of the writer? It might be someone trying to manipulate his way into running the Mets himself. I take anonymous quotes with a truckload of salt (and it's one of the reasons I go so bonkers when someone comments anonymously here)----if you have something to say, say it and be quoted; and if you're in a position where you can't be quoted for one reason or another, then don't say anything at all; at the very least, give a reason for the anonymity.

None of this helps the Mets come to a solution. We'll see what they do, then analyze. Not before.

I was a guest with Sal at SportsFan Buzz a week ago talking about the stretch run. Go to Sal's site to download it on I-Tunes or click it directly here.

My book is still available on Amazon, I-Universe and Barnes and Noble.com. It's available for download as an E-book here. You can also now get it for less that five bucks on BN via download here.