Leyland’s “Principled” Charade

It’s best to take what a manager says in January and pretty much ignore it. Because of that, when Jim Leyland insists that Miguel Cabrera is going to move to third base---his tone signifying no ifs ands or buts---you should nod politely and expect it to be proved as “baseball”.

That’s not a lie.

It’s “baseball”.

Jim Bouton wrote in Ball Four of the episode in which teammate Mike Marshall received two different stories regarding his demotion to the minors from the manager and GM---both of them nonsense. Bouton explained Marshall’s view of this in the following line:

Now, some people would call that a contradiction. Others might call it a lie. Mike Marshall called it baseball.

Is Leyland “lying” or is he giving Cabrera time to get used to the idea of sharing first base and DHing before he has to report to spring training? Will he give the player a chance to lose a few pounds and have a look at him at the position in March before bowing to the inevitable reality and figuring something else out?

Initially, I felt that was the case, but Leyland is insisting that Cabrera’s going to play third.

Anyone questioning him on this decision will be subject to Leyland’s cigarette-ravaged voice in an extended, “I’m a baseball guy and you’re a dumb writer” tirade. With Leyland being so adamant that Cabrera’s going to third base, Tigers fans should be concerned that Leyland’s going to ignore his eyes and the entreaties of his pitchers and put Cabrera at third base for the sake of being contrary.

That’s not managing. That’s being arrogant and difficult for no reason other than ego and it’s going to hurt the team if he follows through on it.

I still don’t think Leyland will do it, but when listening to the rhetoric and considering the involvement of his “principles” of saying something and sticking to it, I’m not so sure.

But principles are floating just like Marshall’s interpretation of lies.

It’s not going back on them to accept that Cabrera can’t play third and to react accordingly.

It’s baseball.

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The Pros And Cons Of Starting Johan Santana On Short Rest

• Johan Santana called upon to save the Mets:

After the Mets bats failed to capitalize on another game rife with opportunities against a

rookie pitcher (albeit a good one in Chris Volstad), they're now in a predicament in which they have to look at the needs of the team in the short term as opposed to the long term. Johan Santana volunteered to take the mound on three days rest this afternoon to try and save the season. Here are the objective realities of such a maneuver:

He can't be counted on to go deeply into the game unless he keeps his pitch count very low--Santana's record in the few games he's pitched on short rest in the regular season is not good, but that's actually misleading. In three starts, his record is 1-1 with a 6.14 ERA and five homers allowed in 14 2/3 innings. That being said, the numbers were bloated due to a terrible start in 2002 in which he got shelled allowing three homers to a White Sox team that could really hit. That was also Santana's first year in the starting rotation at age 23 before he became Johan Santana. In the other games he pitched on short rest, he pitched quite well.

And one of the starts was in April of 2000 when he was a rookie and the three days rest came after a relief appearance of one inning.
The final time he did it in the regular season was also after a relief appearance four days earlier in 2003. Santana also pitched on three days rest in the 2004 ALDS vs the Yankees and pitched well in both appearances in that series. The pitch counts were important then as well because he only threw 93 pitches in game one and lasted five innings and 87 pitches in game four. His history has little to do with how he's going to fare today, but clearly he's going to have to be watched closely after throwing 125 pitches on Tuesday.

Santana isn't a short-term investment--Santana is 29-years-old and is signed to a very lucrative, long-term contract to be the Mets ace as they enter their new ballpark; he's one of the cornerstones of the organization and an asset as they try to lure free agents. Overtaxing him for short-term needs and risking injury a few years down the line isn't worth it. That's the

difference between the Brewers repeatedly throwing C.C. Sabathia on three-days rest and putting Ben Sheets out there this afternoon----what difference would it make to the Brewers if both Sheets and Sabathia get hurt after signing huge money contracts elsewhere? It's not their money and they're comfortable in the knowledge that the two pitchers aren't going to beg out of such important games and still be able to look their present and future teammates in the eye; plus I don't think Sheets is going to be able to last very long today given the ominous statements coming out of Milwaukee of how he's going to "give it a shot". That brings me to the next point...

The Brewers are still in a shaky position--They haven't the faintest idea of what they're going to get from Sheets if he indeed gets out to the mound to pitch; nor do they know how long he's going to be out there; the backup pitcher they're mentioning, Dave Bush, has been

adequate but not great lately and in two of his three starts this season against the Cubs, they've done a number on him. The Brewers have gotten yeoman work from their rotten bullpen over the past week, but how long are they going to be able to count on that? Plus Cubs manager Lou Piniella looked very agitated with the mental and physical mistakes his team made last night and won't want to enter the playoffs with his team flopping around on the field like, well, like the Mets.

The Mets have no choice--With the way they've played behind every pitcher not named Santana over the past few weeks and the reality of a loss eliminating them from contention, they have to roll the dice, put Santana out there and

hope that they jump on Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco (a pitcher they've consistently pounded), get a lead big enough to entrust to that bullpen (that would have to be a pretty big lead) and get Santana out of there after 80 or so pitches. They're going to have to make a choice if the score is 1-1 in the sixth inning and Santana's scheduled to bat after having thrown 90 pitches; other than that, they can only hope to get a lead, put some pressure on the Brewers who are scheduled to start at 3:55 and win their own game. The only other thing they can do is a rain dance around Shea Stadium so Santana will be able to pitch on his regular rest tomorrow and hope that the Brewers lose today. Actually, that's probably the best of all possible scenarios aside from a Mets win and Brewers loss.

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• Indians 11-White Sox 8; Roals 8-Twins 1:

With all the ridicule the Mets receive for their back-to-back collapses, the White Sox are authoring a collapse of their own. They started the Twins series up by 2 1/2 games with seven

to play and only one win away from effectively sealing the deal and they lost all three games; then they returned home to play the retooling Indians and a rookie starter in Scott Lewis and got pounded for eleven runs. And all of this was going on while the Twins were losing 8-1 to the Royals.
Javier Vazquez is scheduled to start for the White Sox today, but after his showing in the high-pressure game against the Twins (and in other high-pressure games throughout his career) and with how manager Ozzie Guillen has been so open in his low opinion of Vazquez's courage, I wouldn't expect much other than a quick hook.
Even with all of that, there's a window of opportunity for the White Sox just as there is for

the Mets; Glen Perkins is starting for the Twins and he's been knocked around in his past four starts; pitching for the Royals is Gil Meche, who's been very good in his last two starts and generally always gives a gutty effort.
I have a feeling that this division is going to come down to Monday afternoon as the Tigers play that makeup game against the White Sox and if that's the case, then the White Sox are in trouble because veteran teams who've had a rotten year like the Tigers would like nothing better than to have another team (especially one with a manager who's despised throughout the league) to join them in their misery. In a way, it would be far worse

for the White Sox to have their season come down to Monday afternoon because the Tigers have known that they were going home after the regular season ends; the White Sox expected to be in the playoffs and it would be a kick in the gut if they got knocked out the day after the season ended by a team that had nothing to play for other than the satisfaction of knowing they've knocked out one of their division rivals whom they don't like all that much to begin with.

Who Would've Thought In March...

• Who would've thought that by August 21, these things would've happened:
  

That the Tampa Bay Rays would be fighting for the best record in baseball and be ten games ahead of the Yankees.
That Manny Ramirez would finally aggravate the Red Sox to the point where they decided to get him out of town once and for all and pay his salary to leave.

That the Yankees would undergo such a rough transition with a

new manager in Joe Girardi (who still appears to have a lot to learn) and that their young starters would be injured and terrible, respectively. (Actually, someone called the Ian Kennedy disaster----meeeeeeeeee!!!)
That the Orioles, having cleared out their veterans and started a legit rebuilding project, would be flirting with .500 and playing very respectably.
That the Minnesota Twins, sans Johan Santana and Torii Hunter and with a patchwork lineup, would be fighting for first place.
That the Detroit Tigers would become the latest version of The Worst Team Money Could Buy?
That after coming within one win of the World Series, the Cleveland Indians would stumble

badly enough to clear out most of their veterans and start another rebuilding project.
That Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley would post such massive offensive numbers and that Ian Kinsler would even get himself into the

conversation for MVP.
That the Seattle Mariners would see everything go wrong far beyond a worst case scenario; Stephen King couldn't come up with a series of nightmares as disastrous as the Mariners 2008 season.
That Mike Pelfrey of the Mets would develop this quickly to become a top young starter in the National League and win a probable 15-16 games.
That Ryan Howard would start morphing into a kind, gentle version of Dave Kingman and that his numbers would tumble so rapidly; and that reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins's play wouldn't live up to his mouth.

That the historically durable Tom Glavine and John Smoltz would both be lost for the season; the Braves pitching staff so top-to-bottom rotten; and that they'd be sellers instead of buyers at mid-season starting a rebuilding project.
That the Marlins would be in contention spending less money on their entire roster than Alex Rodriguez makes all season.
That the Brewers would go for broke so completely by dealing for C.C. Sabathia, who they have no chance of keeping after the season.
That even Tony La Russa, baseball's resident genius, would be able to keep the Cardinals patchwork and bargain basement roster (aside from Albert Pujols) in contention this long, especially without a closer.

That Ken Griffey Jr would allow the Reds to trade him.
That the Diamondbacks, with their excellent on-paper roster; dual-headed Cy Young Award contenders in Brandon Webb and Dan Haren; a resurgent Randy Johnson; and solid mid-season acquisitions, would be so relentlessly and unexplainably inconsistent.
That the Dodgers would acquire two future Hall of Famers for almost nothing within three weeks of each other in Manny Ramirez and Greg Maddux.
That the Padres would be so poisonously bad and that their arrogance and cheapness would permeate their organization to become almost hopeless.

These surprises----among many, many more----prove that no matter how one makes their

predictions, based on numbers or observation, there's no way to know what's going to happen in a season; no way to judge what's going to work and what isn't. The only thing to do is to watch and learn and try not to make the same mistakes again. If anything, this season is a prime indicator of why they play the games on the field rather than in a room with a bunch of nerds alternating between their stats and World of Warcraft.

Ivan Rodriguez For Kyle Farnsworth; The Manny Rumors

• Brian Cashman pulls another deal out of nowhere in getting Ivan Rodriguez:

This reminds me of the David Justice trade that Yankees GM Brian Cashman pulled off with

the Indians in 2000 in which it just struck like lightning from a clear blue sky. In acquiring Ivan Rodriguez from the Tigers for Kyle Farnsworth, Cashman fills the empty lineup spot that had been Jose Molina and dumps Kyle Farnsworth before he reverts back into what he really is. Getting Rodriguez is a far cry from the laughable offers that Cashman received for Farnsworth over the past year. Most teams wanted the Yankees to just give Farnsworth to them and pay his salary; but Cashman replenished the pitcher's value to a certain point and made an advantageous deal for both sides.
Even with the way he's pitched since replacing Joba Chamberlain as the eighth inning man, Farnsworth has always been a pitcher who is going to give up the big homer in a big game; it's not a matter of if, but of when; to get rid of him now when the Yankees have viable replacements for him----Damaso Marte pitches well enough to righties that he can be used as

a set-up man; Jose Veras deserves a chance; and Chamberlain could conceivably be moved back into the role for the playoffs----and to get a veteran catcher was a smart move and they didn't even have to dip into the system to get it done.
Rodriguez's power has "mysteriously" deserted him in recent years (although I don't think, given all the factors of his vastly diminished size and power and the timing of the decline, that it's all that much of a mystery), but he's still hitting .295; has extensive post-season success and experience; is a well-liked leader in the clubhouse; plays good defense and calls a good game for his pitchers. He's a free agent at the end of the year and I wouldn't discount the possibility of the Yankees bringing him back to split time with Jorge Posada at catcher and first base; no one knows what Posada's situation is going to be when he gets back and having a backup who can provide both offense and defense isn't a bad idea.
The Tigers and Braves are two of Farnsworth's former employers who liked him enough to want to bring him back and I don't think that this is a short-term idea for the Tigers either; my

guess is that they'll try and keep Farnsworth. Their bullpen is in tatters; Todd Jones is unreliable; Joel Zumaya is always one false step from another DL stint and is a prime candidate for a fast flameout. Farnsworth will at least add another body----biceps and all----out there to get a few outs. They've been using Brandon Inge behind the plate and must feel confident enough to put him back there regularly in order to get his, Gary Sheffield's and Marcus Thames's bats into the lineup every day. The Tigers are only one hot streak away from jumping into first place in the AL Central, so this made sense on all levels for both teams.

• Manny Ramirez headed for Florida?

I don't believe that these deals are done until they're done, but the Red Sox seem determined to get Manny Ramirez out of town and it's no shock that the Marlins have jumped

into the fray; given their history of going for it and winning when they think they have a shot, no playoff team should want to see the Marlins in October. If I were the Red Sox though, I would be very reticent to slot Jason Bay into Manny's spot in left field as would occur if the proposed three-team deal with the Pirates and Marlins comes through. Bay looks to me like the type of player who would be swallowed up by the Boston pressure; he does fine when he's with a team like the Pirates who have no chance of contending, but the spotlight in Boston combined with replacing Manny Ramirez? It's a big risk. The other names----Jeremy Hermida and Josh Willingham----would be better options in a straight-up deal and I'd take Willingham over the others. Other teams may jump in before the deadline hits, so these stories are very premature and Manny may end up just staying in Boston for the rest of the season.

• And still another reason why J.P. Ricciardi should be fired:

No one who's been watching Scott Rolen over the past few years can possibly be surprised by this from the Associated Press:

Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Scott Rolen plans to skip some games and cut

back on his batting practice while undergoing an "extensive" rehab program for his surgically repaired left shoulder. "I've been having some shoulder trouble, some problems with it," Rolen said. "Not strength, not flexibility, not surgery. Nothing like that. Mechanically it's not functioning right. The therapist looked at it, the doctor looked at it. I talked to [manager Cito Gaston and general manager J.P. Ricciardi] and we're going to try to get some extra days off. I'll keep playing, keep going out there and doing what I can do, back off in the cage a little bit."

Rolen's an admirable guy; he's stubborn, proud and plays hard whenever he can get out on the field; but that's the problem----he's never able to get out on the field and his production is at a point where he shouldn't even be a starter anymore whether he's hurt or not. In looking at the numbers of the guy the Blue Jays traded to the Cardinals to get him, Troy Glaus, and there's no comparison on the field:

Rolen: Games-82; At Bats-295; Runs-36; Hits-75; Doubles-21; Triples-2; Home Runs: 6; RBI-31; Walks-35; Strikeouts-52; Average-.254; OBP-.349; Slugging-.400; OPS+-101.

Glaus: Games-107; At Bats-384; Runs-51; Hits-105; Doubles-27; Triples-1; Home Runs-18; RBI-71; Walks-60; Strikeouts-72; Batting Average-.273; OBP-.374; Slugging-.490; OPS+-127.

I understand that Rolen's been hurt, but that's part of the reason that the Blue Jays should've steered clear of him. The move was a huge mistake before even getting to the contract status of the players. Rolen has two more years on his deal at $11.8 million per year; Glaus has an $11.25 million player option for next year that was exercised as part of the trade

from Toronto to St. Louis. This is yet a third example of the Blue Jays and J.P. Ricciardi putting an absurd contract option out of the hands of upper management and into the hands of the player. (The other two were Frank Thomas and A.J. Burnett.)
If Glaus had stayed in Toronto and had the year he's having for the Cardinals, he would've declined the option and gone into free agency, but given what they've gotten from Rolen, I'm sure the Blue Jays would take that deal right now. Worst case scenario, they could've kept Glaus and saved the money they'll be paying Rolen over the next two years; and Rolen's going to be 34; does anyone think that he's going to have a career renaissance at this point? That he's going to be healthy? And I think we're all beginning to realize that the "rest and rehab" program for injured players rarely, if ever, works. Jorge Posada is the latest example of a player who took that route and wound up wasting three months trying to play with an injury that needed surgery and delayed his return time because he tried to avoid what needed to be done. Rolen's career is on the decline due to injury, but the Blue Jays are going

to be paying him for two more years at big money because they made a bad judgment call and took on another bad contract, which is turning into a hallmark of Ricciardi's tenure as GM.
Because of these contracts, they're going to lose Burnett after the season, but can't trade him because of the contract. They cut Frank Thomas because of the contract. And they're stuck with Rolen because of the contract. I'm still waiting for an answer as to how Ricciardi's still there, but no one's responding because they can't come up with one---even one that's total crud.

Squandered Opportunities For The Mets

• Reds 7-Mets 2:
  

If a team squanders as many opportunities to take a lead and bust the game open as the Mets did last night, it's only a matter of time before they lose. Carlos Beltran was playing like his head was anywhere but at Great American Ballpark as he misjudged a catchable Ken Griffey Jr line drive that turned into a run scoring double and kicked a base hit into the gap as if he were imitating David Beckham to allow an insurance run to score for the Reds.
Credit is due to the Reds pitchers (especially Mike Lincoln) for wriggling out of the jams and not allowing the Mets to score with their big bashers at the plate, but this game was an example of how quickly things can turn around for a team that was streaking three days ago. During their ten game winning streak, the Mets rode great pitching from their starters and bullpen, but they also did the little things like score runners from third base with less than two outs; using outs to advance runners; taking the extra base; etc. Countless runs can be scored by doing these simple things; then a team doesn't have to hope for their pitchers to hold the opponents to less that two runs; they don't have to wait for the home run. It's what was missing from the Mets earlier in the season and what's been the main culprit of the past two losses.
One note about the Reds and mark this down: they're going to finish this season over .500; they're going to spend money in the off-season to improve and they're going to be legitimate contenders next season. They have an owner who wants to win in Bob Castellini; a smart, aggressive and successful GM in Walt Jocketty; and a manager with a strong resume (despite his detractors) in Dusty Baker.

• Orioles 11-Tigers 10:

It's hard to take the Tigers seriously as a contender when they score six runs in the first inning and their pitchers can't hold the lead. Nate Robertson has been mostly terrible this

season and only lasted into the third inning last night. The Tigers are only 7 1/2 games behind a White Sox team that has flaws of their own, but blowing games like this isn't going to help their cause in coming back.
The trade from last season that will be pointed to as a "mistake" might be the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis acquisition from the Marlins, but the real mistake was to trade the rising 22-year-old Jair Jurrjens for a fading Edgar Renteria. Cabrera's very young and will provide years of MVP-quality production for the Tigers; there's every chance that Willis, while not approaching his dominance of 2005, will be a solid pitcher again once healthy; but they

could've signed David Eckstein and gotten similar offensive production as they've gotten Renteria; they could've signed the offensively-challenged Cesar Izturis and gotten Gold Glove caliber defense and carried his bat in their powerful lineup, but they got greedy for offense and traded for Renteria. Granted, the Cabrera/Willis swap fell into GM Dave Dombrowski's lap after the Renteria trade and happened quickly, but they didn't need Renteria either way and especially for Jurrjens who's starting to look like he's going to be a star.
The Orioles have been very impressive this year after purging their

clubhouse of Les Miserables, Erik Bedard and the controversies surrounding Miguel Tejada. This could go two ways: owner Peter Angelos could prevent Andy MacPhail from clearing out more veterans because he wants to finish with as good a record as possible, or he could look at the smart moves MacPhail made in clearing out high-priced veterans and negative influences and let him continue the practice with guys like Jay Payton. Your guess is as good as mine as to what Angelos is going to do.

• Cardinals 6-Padres 5:

The Padres waited far too long to dump Randy Wolf and now they're not going to get anything of consequence for him if and when they finally do decide to move him. I don't want

to sound like a broken record, but all I keep hearing is how "bad" teams like the Reds and Royals are, but no one is whipping the Padres for their expansion-team roster and 37-61 record. The Reds and Royals have talent on their rosters and in their organizations; the Padres are awful, but you'd never know it from hearing how "smart" their organization is.
Injuries can be used as an excuse in some instances, but in the Padres case? Was Tad Iguchi going to account for a few more wins? Josh Bard? Chris Young? Edgar Gonzalez has filled in capably for Iguchi; Young couldn't be expected to provide more than his 180 innings and a 12-10 record; Bard isn't a difference-maker offensively. The team's bottom-line terrible on paper and in practice.
Did they really expect Randy Wolf to stay healthy and effective over a full season for the first time since 2003? Did they really expect Mark Prior to contribute anything other than some more derisive stories about how the mighty have fallen? Or anything other than attempted stat-compiling and apathy from the apparently disinterested Greg Maddux who

doesn't want to be traded to a contender because he's happy in San Diego despite the state of the team? Or a resurgence of the fading Trevor Hoffman? I honestly believe that they're delusional in San Diego; that they think this year is a "statistical anomaly"; that they still believe, deep down, that their team, as currently constructed will return to contention next season.
They resisted dealing the likes of Wolf earlier this season because the NL West was so terrible that they hoped to stay close to the divisional lead and somehow crawl back into contention; the leaders in the division having a record under .500 is only an advantage if the lower-rung teams win their own games. The Padres have lost 18 out of 23 and are well on their way to losing 100 games. How is it that Bud Black is still there? Or Kevin Towers? Or Paul DePodesta? Or Sandy Alderson?
The Padres are becoming the epitome of a factoid (something resembling a fact; unverified----often invented----information that is given credibility because it appeared in print).

And why isn't anyone ripping them as they deserve to be ripped for this catastrophe? The Mariners have been a punching bag and a punchline all season long, but the Padres are in a mediocre league, a terrible division and are a game and a half worse than the Mariners! Is this a case of "ignore the problem and it'll go away"? Why are the Padres being given a pass that no other organizations (most in a better position to turn things around relatively quickly) aren't?