The Pros And Cons Of Starting Johan Santana On Short Rest

• Johan Santana called upon to save the Mets:

After the Mets bats failed to capitalize on another game rife with opportunities against a

rookie pitcher (albeit a good one in Chris Volstad), they're now in a predicament in which they have to look at the needs of the team in the short term as opposed to the long term. Johan Santana volunteered to take the mound on three days rest this afternoon to try and save the season. Here are the objective realities of such a maneuver:

He can't be counted on to go deeply into the game unless he keeps his pitch count very low--Santana's record in the few games he's pitched on short rest in the regular season is not good, but that's actually misleading. In three starts, his record is 1-1 with a 6.14 ERA and five homers allowed in 14 2/3 innings. That being said, the numbers were bloated due to a terrible start in 2002 in which he got shelled allowing three homers to a White Sox team that could really hit. That was also Santana's first year in the starting rotation at age 23 before he became Johan Santana. In the other games he pitched on short rest, he pitched quite well.

And one of the starts was in April of 2000 when he was a rookie and the three days rest came after a relief appearance of one inning.
The final time he did it in the regular season was also after a relief appearance four days earlier in 2003. Santana also pitched on three days rest in the 2004 ALDS vs the Yankees and pitched well in both appearances in that series. The pitch counts were important then as well because he only threw 93 pitches in game one and lasted five innings and 87 pitches in game four. His history has little to do with how he's going to fare today, but clearly he's going to have to be watched closely after throwing 125 pitches on Tuesday.

Santana isn't a short-term investment--Santana is 29-years-old and is signed to a very lucrative, long-term contract to be the Mets ace as they enter their new ballpark; he's one of the cornerstones of the organization and an asset as they try to lure free agents. Overtaxing him for short-term needs and risking injury a few years down the line isn't worth it. That's the

difference between the Brewers repeatedly throwing C.C. Sabathia on three-days rest and putting Ben Sheets out there this afternoon----what difference would it make to the Brewers if both Sheets and Sabathia get hurt after signing huge money contracts elsewhere? It's not their money and they're comfortable in the knowledge that the two pitchers aren't going to beg out of such important games and still be able to look their present and future teammates in the eye; plus I don't think Sheets is going to be able to last very long today given the ominous statements coming out of Milwaukee of how he's going to "give it a shot". That brings me to the next point...

The Brewers are still in a shaky position--They haven't the faintest idea of what they're going to get from Sheets if he indeed gets out to the mound to pitch; nor do they know how long he's going to be out there; the backup pitcher they're mentioning, Dave Bush, has been

adequate but not great lately and in two of his three starts this season against the Cubs, they've done a number on him. The Brewers have gotten yeoman work from their rotten bullpen over the past week, but how long are they going to be able to count on that? Plus Cubs manager Lou Piniella looked very agitated with the mental and physical mistakes his team made last night and won't want to enter the playoffs with his team flopping around on the field like, well, like the Mets.

The Mets have no choice--With the way they've played behind every pitcher not named Santana over the past few weeks and the reality of a loss eliminating them from contention, they have to roll the dice, put Santana out there and

hope that they jump on Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco (a pitcher they've consistently pounded), get a lead big enough to entrust to that bullpen (that would have to be a pretty big lead) and get Santana out of there after 80 or so pitches. They're going to have to make a choice if the score is 1-1 in the sixth inning and Santana's scheduled to bat after having thrown 90 pitches; other than that, they can only hope to get a lead, put some pressure on the Brewers who are scheduled to start at 3:55 and win their own game. The only other thing they can do is a rain dance around Shea Stadium so Santana will be able to pitch on his regular rest tomorrow and hope that the Brewers lose today. Actually, that's probably the best of all possible scenarios aside from a Mets win and Brewers loss.

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• Indians 11-White Sox 8; Roals 8-Twins 1:

With all the ridicule the Mets receive for their back-to-back collapses, the White Sox are authoring a collapse of their own. They started the Twins series up by 2 1/2 games with seven

to play and only one win away from effectively sealing the deal and they lost all three games; then they returned home to play the retooling Indians and a rookie starter in Scott Lewis and got pounded for eleven runs. And all of this was going on while the Twins were losing 8-1 to the Royals.
Javier Vazquez is scheduled to start for the White Sox today, but after his showing in the high-pressure game against the Twins (and in other high-pressure games throughout his career) and with how manager Ozzie Guillen has been so open in his low opinion of Vazquez's courage, I wouldn't expect much other than a quick hook.
Even with all of that, there's a window of opportunity for the White Sox just as there is for

the Mets; Glen Perkins is starting for the Twins and he's been knocked around in his past four starts; pitching for the Royals is Gil Meche, who's been very good in his last two starts and generally always gives a gutty effort.
I have a feeling that this division is going to come down to Monday afternoon as the Tigers play that makeup game against the White Sox and if that's the case, then the White Sox are in trouble because veteran teams who've had a rotten year like the Tigers would like nothing better than to have another team (especially one with a manager who's despised throughout the league) to join them in their misery. In a way, it would be far worse

for the White Sox to have their season come down to Monday afternoon because the Tigers have known that they were going home after the regular season ends; the White Sox expected to be in the playoffs and it would be a kick in the gut if they got knocked out the day after the season ended by a team that had nothing to play for other than the satisfaction of knowing they've knocked out one of their division rivals whom they don't like all that much to begin with.

If The White Sox Miss The Playoffs, Will That FINALLY Spell The End For Nuclear Ozzie Guillen?

• Twins 7-White Sox 6:

The job security of Nuclear Ozzie Guillen has been put into question before and the White

Sox responded to such suggestions by giving their manager a very long-term contract extension. Despite his over-the-edge rants; propensity for publicly chastising and calling out his players; and frequent back-and-forths with everyone ranging from his own boss, to opposing players, to the media, Guillen has always been a good game manager. But one has to question when the final nail will be pounded into the coffin.
This year has been relatively quiet for Guillen (in comparison to his usual out-of-control behaviors on and off the field), but it hasn't been without controversy. There was the calling out of his own hitting coach, Greg Walker, early in the season and the demand to GM Kenny Williams that something be done about the White Sox impotent offense; and most recently the manager chose the most inopportune time to call out a mentally fragile pitcher in Javier Vazquez just as he was preparing to take the mound for a start that, had he won, would likely have ended the Twins hopes of catching the White Sox. Vazquez got pounded and lost the opening game, setting the tone for the series on a bad note for the White Sox. Then, after employing the questionable strategy of pushing closer Bobby Jenks to a third inning, losing the game and

first place and presumably rendering Jenks unavailable for tonight's game against the Indians, Guillen is having another verbal battle with one of his own players in Orlando Cabrera----Sun-Times Story.
Taken individually, these things wouldn't be cause to dismiss a manager who: A) really is a strategically solid tactician; and B) has had such success including a World Series win; but when are GM Ken Williams and owner Jerry Reinsdorf going to say that enough's enough and Guillen's unique style is a case of diminishing returns? The White Sox may right the ship this weekend, but it's not going to be easy; the Indians are coming into Chicago hoping to finish the season above .500 and if necessary, there's going to be a make-up game on Monday between the Tigers and White Sox. The Tigers (specifically Magglio Ordonez) would probably like nothing better than to knock Guillen and the White Sox out of the playoffs. While all that is going on, the Twins will

have the Royals coming into the Metrodome for three games.
The main thing that would concern me is that the Twins are playing with a whole load of luck (and that accounts for a chunk of their unbelievable success with runners in scoring position above any other reason) and that they're a well-schooled, close-knit group that plays the game correctly, while the White Sox are always a powder keg ready to explode, usually with a spark from their manager. If the Twins take the division, would that be the end of Guillen's managerial tenure? It's been speculated before that the manager might be in trouble, but eventually he is going to wear out his welcome and be replaced. The results of this weekend could dictate whether it's going to be now or later.

• Was Guillen bothered by Tony La Russa's visit to Yankee Stadium as a guest of White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf?

Guillen played for La Russa as a rookie and while there would be no obvious reason for La

Russa's visit to see Yankee Stadium one last time as a threat to Guillen, one has to understand the inherent paranoia that comes with being a manager. Guillen's not stupid; he has to know that La Russa is unhappy with the Cardinals penny-pinching and that Reinsdorf has openly expressed his regret that he allowed then-GM Hawk Harrelson to fire La Russa in 1986 and the duo would probably like to end La Russa's managerial career where it began back in Chicago with the White Sox at some point.
It's not out of the realm of possibility that the Cardinals would allow La Russa to leave if that's what he really wanted to do (especially if he was going to manage in the other league) and that Guillen would be fired if the White Sox blow their division. On the surface, I'm sure that Guillen didn't mind La Russa's visit, but deep down, he had to be threatened by it because it's just a natural reaction and not without merit.

To The Left Is The Abyss; To The Right Is The Promised Land

On May 31st, I wrote a blog comparing the Tampa Bay Rays to two other teams that had been woeful for what seemed like an eternity and suddenly parlayed a series of smart veteran

acquisitions along with the development of the high draft picks (one of the few perks of being so consistently bad) into an unexpected leap into contention----Comparing The Rays To Other Teams That Came From Nowhere. Those teams----the 1984 Mets and 1991 Braves----eventually fell short in their first year of realistic contention. The Mets faded out against a hot, veteran team in the Chicago Cubs; the Braves made it all the way to the World Series before losing to the Minnesota Twins. Now that the Rays have hit the skids heading into the All Star break, there's another way this could go for them and that is what happened to the 2001 Minnesota Twins.
Like the Rays, the Twins had been a franchise in constant rebuilding mode. With little money available to sign free agents, the organization instead relied on the coordination of

instruction instilled from GMs Andy MacPhail and Terry Ryan to manager Tom Kelly and permeating the entire system from top-to-bottom to develop young players. The team hadn't had a winning season since 1992 and annually finished either fourth or fifth in their division. When talk of contraction was at its apex, it was the Twins and the Expos that were the two teams most often discussed as being eliminated based on their apparent haplessness. Then something strange happened: in 2001 the Twins began winning.
All of the young players they'd developed or acquired began performing in the big leagues. With an average age of 27, those young players----A.J. Pierzynski, Cristian Guzman, Jacque Jones, Torii Hunter, David Ortiz (yes, that Big Papi before he became Big Papi), Johan Santana and J.C. Romero----led the Twins to an uprising that shocked the baseball world and vaulted them into

first place with a 56-32 record and a five game lead in their division over the powerhouse Cleveland Indians. Instead of a team that was forever being raided for their high-priced veteran stars like Chuck Knoblauch, the Twins were seen to be a team that was going to add veteran players and take their shot to win when they had the chance. Then, despite a veteran manager who'd won two World Series and had schooled his players in the correct way to play the game, the Twins slowly started falling apart. As attention to the young, unknown and unexpected contender grew, the youngsters, especially closer LaTroy Hawkins, wilted under the pressure.
As the slump began to build momentum, all of the positive attention that the Twins received for their sudden improvement turned into bewilderment of how far and how fast they'd fallen. Even with all of their experience, Kelly and his third base coach Ron Gardenhire were unable to stop the Twins from falling out of first place and from a high of 24 games over .500 on July 12th, to a record of 65-61 and 5 1/2 games out of first place by August 21st. The Twins eventually righted their ship enough to end the season with a record of 85-77, which would have been seen as an amazing jump from their previous years of 1993-2000 when they averaged 66 wins a year, but was still a disappointment considering how they looked like they were going to confound the experts with an unexpected playoff berth.
There are similarities with the Rays to both situations----that of the Mets and Braves and

that of the Twins. After years of justified ridicule, the Rays have been garnering positive attention that their young players and management have never experienced. Like the Twins of 2001, the Rays are being chased by two veteran, pennant race-tested teams who have the cash and prospects to make drastic improvements at mid-season. Like the Twins, the Rays have hit a slump at an inopportune time. Even with all of their veteran leadership, the Rays management is nowhere near as competent as that of the Twins; there's a potential for panic in Tampa that could rapidly unravel all the good work they've done.
On the bright side for the Twins, the 2001 season was a portent of the future as the team turned that experience into four division titles in five years and consistent contention despite payroll constraints. Kelly retired to the Twins front office after that season because his work was done; he'd turned the Twins youngsters into a well-schooled unit that won games not only because they were talented, but because they played the game correctly as well. (It's amazing how many games can be won by hitting cut-off men, taking the extra base, etc.) Gardenhire took over and has been one of the most unsung top managers in baseball.
The Rays are at the same crossroads that the Twins were; will they snap out of it and

become the 1991 Braves? Or will they collapse under the pressure and have to take solace in their improvement from laughingstock to a team on the rise and look toward the future with hope? The road is in front of them; which will it be?