Santana's Second-Half Dominance Is The Real Deal

• Mets 4-Pirates 0:

It's easy to look at a stat like career-long performance in the first half vs the second half

and scoff at the idea that there's any genuine difference; it's easy to deny the reality, but Johan Santana is again dominating and heating up in the second half of the season as he did during the majority of his time with the Twins and clearly there's something to the notion that he goes from a top tier, All Star pitcher in the first half to a Hall of Famer in the second half.
The numbers are quite different; in the first half over his career he's won 51 and lost 34 with an ERA of 3.47; 719 hits allowed in 829 innings. In the second half, his record (so far) is 53-17 with (not counting yesterday's shutout) a 2.81 ERA, and 500 hits in 647 innings. It's clear that Santana is a pitcher who takes awhile to get heated up, but once he does is something to behold. After a bad start against the Reds coming out of the All Star break, Santana has pitched two complete games; pitched eight innings once and seven innings twice; and 6 1/3 in the other game; he's allowed three runs in one start and two or less in all the others. He's entered his comfort zone and is now pitching like the Cy Young Award winner the Mets paid for.
That he's been able to overcome the ancillary factors of the big move to New York and maintain this career pattern is amazing as well. A somewhat shy, though charismatic Venezuelan coming from laid back Minnesota to "save" the Mets amid all the money and expectations; pitching much of the first half with a manager in Willie Randolph who had a guillotine hovering over his head like a comic book thought balloon; and the increasing disgust

of impatient fans (who booed him, pretty much saying, "we want you to be great now"); and media incompetents who declared him "overrated" after every start that wasn't perfect; Santana's career pattern has proved him to be exactly what everyone thought he was and more because he's pitched two complete games in the past month as well, which was something he was criticized for not doing.
He's only got five or six starts left in the regular season, so his win total isn't going to be gaudy; he's likely to end with 15 or 16 wins and barely over 200 strikeouts, but this was a transition year for him and he's been almost exactly what could reasonably have been expected; it's in the coming years where the in-his-prime Santana will show Mets fans and the rest of baseball why he's got two Cy Young Awards and will be in the running for more playing under that lucrative contract he signed to join and stay with the Mets; then we will no longer be hearing allegations that he's "overrated" anymore.

• Yankees 15-Royals 6:

Can we now formulate a definitive assessment of Brian Bannister? There are some cases where it's best to trust one's eyes and not the stunning and unexpected results a player delivers and that looks to be what's happened with Bannister. A big league pitcher cannot

allow ten runs, ten hits, three walks and three homers in 1+ inning if he expects to be in the big leagues very long. He's a streaky pitcher who happens to run together five or six good starts in a row; this makes people believe that his stuff is better than what it is even when he's getting pounded, which is the majority of the rest of the time.
Ambiorix Burgos, acquired by the Mets in the ridiculed trade of Bannister, is pitching in the minors and closing in on a return to the big leagues after Tommy John surgery; if he helps the Mets short-handed bullpen in September, are we still going to hear about how bad a trade that was? It was an evaluation on the part of the Mets front office that is looking to be correct; Bannister is a journeyman whose hot streak made him look like one that got away; he wasn't one that got away; he was one that was dumped because he wasn't any good.

• Here's a 2009 solution for the San Diego Padres to at least make them interesting:

If the Padres want to inject some life into their club and have a chance to compete with young, inexpensive players, they should (bleep)can the Moneyball adherence; fire manager

Bud Black and replace him with Wally Backman. Backman would take almost no money for the opportunity; he's a Billy Martin-style manager----gifted on the field, flawed off----and he's not bothered about having to try to be innovative to win some games. Backman is currently managing the Joliet Jackhammers in the Northern League and their record of 36-46 isn't all that impressive, but they do some things that the Padres should appreciate with their obsession with being cheap and using the Moneyball system. The Jackhammers have a high team-wide on base percentage----stats----and Backman is a raving maniac who'll flip over food tables and bench stars to get his point across.
They're not going to do it and if they truly intend to slash their payroll some $30+ million to end at around $40 million for next year, they're going to have built in excuses for being the worst team in baseball. They'll continue down the road they're on; pointing to stats as the

reason for their player moves and the payroll constraints as to why they're so awful, lose close to 100 games and be somehow bulletproof from criticism by those who are themselves invested in sabermetrics above all else. Backman would probably be a short-term solution because he's a pretty good shot to pull another standard part in the Billy Martin package----the self-destruct lever, but it's something that may work and overcome a lack of talent, money and competence to mitigate the shortfalls in San Diego; at the very least, it would make them interesting.

Ichiro The Overrated; Will The Real Brian Bannister Please Stand Up?

• Ichiro the overrated:

Is a singles hitter who doesn't hit for much power as valuable and as important a piece in a

team's lineup as a guy who's going to singlehandedly produce more runs? Ichiro Suzuki is consistently referred to as one of baseball's brightest stars, but his results and off-field self-importance don't back up the idea that such a player should receive that designation. What exactly does he do that couldn't be replicated by another singles hitter who doesn't hit for power? That Ichiro appears to choose not to try to hit the ball out of the ballpark more than he does shouldn't enter into the equation; for the money he's being paid and that the recently disclosed information that it

was Ichiro's displeasure with former Mariners manager Mike Hargrove that was a major factor in Hargrove's stunning resignation as the Mariners were streaking into contention last season are putting the player's value into question. Now, after Hargrove's replacement John McLaren was fired, Ichiro decided unilaterally that he wanted to move from center field back to right field regardless of the team's needs; how much more is this team supposed to take from a player whose results indicate that he's overrated?
Ichiro has the power and ability to hit 25+ homers a year, but he'd rather beef up his batting average and hit totals instead of doing more to help his team win. For a guy who's averaged 228 hits a year, one would think his OBP would be higher than it is; one would think he'd drive in a few more runs along the way; one would think that he'd be a more useful player; but he isn't. And now, with the revelations of Ichiro's demanding nature off the field in making the Mariners choose between a manager who'd very nearly won two World Series with the Indians and had the Mariners in contention for the first time in years and insisting that he move back to right field, he has to be examined more closely in questioning whether all of this aggravation is worth it.
Baseball-reference.com has comparisons of players to other players with similar numbers.

Ichiro is constantly mentioned as a "future Hall of Famer" because of his ability to hit singles, but in looking at the players to whom he's compared there isn't one who's even close to being a Hall of Famer. Ralph Garr? Bake McBride? Mickey Rivers? Ron LeFlore? Were any of these players big enough stars that they'd be able to get away with making the demands that Ichiro makes and gets away with? The Mariners would be better off with a player like Freddy Sanchez who hits for more power at a fraction of the price (and the trouble) that Ichiro causes.
I made these points before and slightly changed my tune because I was swayed by the constant references to Ichiro as such a great player, but my first instinct was correct. Ichiro is an overrated player whose main skill is hitting singles and playing solid defense. If that's what a team needs, they can go and get Willy Taveras or Juan Pierre, get similar defense in center field and not have the player dictating how the organization is run. Ichiro's batting average and hit totals may end up getting him in the Hall of Fame as they've somehow gained him all of this say-so over the Mariners, but that doesn't mean he deserves it, any of it.

• Will the real Brian Bannister please stand up?

Which Brian Bannister is the real Brian Bannister? Is it the pitcher he was with the Mets----the one that couldn't throw strikes consistently; kept getting hurt; didn't have stuff that indicated he'd be anything more than a number four or five starter (at best); and was traded for

a pitcher in Ambiorix Burgos, who (despite what anyone says) has a far higher level of ability? Is he the pitcher who won 12 games for a bad Royals team in 2007 and, with a little luck, could have won 17-18 games and has at times looked unhittable this season? Is he the pitcher who, in 2008, has looked identical to the pitcher the Mets traded because he's lost the strike zone and gotten raked around the ballpark? Or is he a combination of the three?
Bannister is showing himself to be a pitcher who has to be nearly perfect to get those great results and when he's not perfect, he becomes a less than .500 pitcher who isn't even an innings-eater. The Mets have been said to regret trading Bannister, but as he goes around the league and hitters figure him out, was it even that big of a mistake? Burgos is out for the season after arm surgery, but even if he's not back until mid-2009, he's still only going to be 25 with a fastball that was around 100 mph (if he gets it back and Tommy John surgery patients tend to come

back throwing as hard, if not harder); Bannister is already 27 and is proving to be inconsistent and mediocre, just as the Mets thought when they traded him.
The Royals couldn't have realistically expected Bannister to be as good as he was last season and they're probably happy with what they've gotten from him as a back of the rotation starter. In the long-term, he's not going to be much more than he is and that's not something that any team should regret trading because he's the type of pitcher that can be found on the waiver wire or as a reasonably priced free agent. His hot streak and ability to dominate when he's on (as rare as that is) notwithstanding, Bannister is nestled into his niche and that's not that big of a deal one way or the other.