Hot Stove Winners, 2011-2012

Most of the big names are off the board and the ones remaining on the market—Roy Oswalt, Edwin Jackson—aren’t going to change the landscape much, if at all.

Let’s look at the hot stove winners for this winter.

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New York Yankees

This isn’t a matter of the Yankees opening their checkbook and buying stuff as it usually is when they’re considered the “big winners” of the off-season. This winter was dedicated to keeping CC Sabathia and bolstering their starting rotation—which they did.

The Yankees essentially held serve and got more assured production with the additions of Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda than the scrambling they did and luck they enjoyed last year when Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon surpassed any logical expectations.

They’ve also been helped by the Red Sox evident disarray; the Blue Jays failing to acquire any veteran lineup or starting pitching help; the financial constraints that continually bound the Rays; and the Orioles being the Orioles.

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Texas Rangers

The Rangers helped their starting rotation in two ways. One, they signed Joe Nathan to take over as closer and are shifting Neftali Feliz into being a starter. Two, they won the bidding for Yu Darvish.

Some will point to the loss of C.J. Wilson and the above moves as canceling each other out. The case can even be made that because the Angels signed Wilson, the Rangers wind up as net losers because of Wilson’s departure for a division rival.

The money they spent on Darvish in comparison to what it would’ve cost to keep Wilson or sign Jackson or Kuroda is a viable argument of having overpayed, but Wilson is 31 and Darvish 25. With Darvish, they get a more talented pitcher and the ancillary benefit of worldwide marketing possibilities because of his Iranian/Japanese heritage, looks and personality.

I think Darvish is going to be a superstar.

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Los Angeles Angels

Long term consequences aside for having to pay Albert Pujols $59 million past his 40th birthday, they signed the best hitter of this generation and immediately launched themselves to the top of the talent scale. Simultaneously, they supplemented their strength in the starting rotation by signing Wilson.

They also acquired a catcher with pop in Chris Iannetta and hired a more competent GM when they replaced Tony Reagins with Jerry DiPoto.

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Miami Marlins

They wanted a proven, name manager to draw buzz heading into their new ballpark and traded for Ozzie Guillen.

They needed starting pitching and signed Mark Buehrle and acquired Carlos Zambrano.

They needed a closer and signed Heath Bell.

And they wanted to bring in an offensive force to strengthen both shortstop and third base offensively and defensively and signed Jose Reyes, shifting Hanley Ramirez to third base.

The big questions are whether or not petulant owner Jeffrey Loria, meddling team president David Samson, Guillen, Zambrano and an unhappy Ramirez light the fuse of this powder keg and if the fans decide to show up to watch after the initial novelties.

On paper in February, they look good.

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Cincinnati Reds

Giving up a chunk of their minor league system to get Mat Latos is risky, but he fills the need at the top of their starting rotation.

Ryan Madson’s market crashed and the Reds got him for one year; they traded for a solid lefty reliever in Sean Marshall and signed Ryan Ludwick, who will benefit from being a background player and hitting in a friendlier home park.

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Colorado Rockies

Michael Cuddyer will have a big offensive year in right field and can play first base if/when Todd Helton gets hurt.

Replacing the shaky Huston Street with the cheaper and better Rafael Betancourt is a step up. Getting Tyler Chatwood for Iannetta and signing Ramon Hernandez to replace Iannetta is a dual gain. They signed the underrated Casey Blake to play third and traded a journeyman righty Clayton Mortensen to get Marco Scutaro, immediately solving their problem at second base.

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San Diego Padres

Yonder Alonso is a power bat and Rookie of the Year candidate at first base. Yasmani Grandal is a top catching prospect and Edinson Volquez is good if he’s healthy and will benefit from pitching in the cavernous Petco Park and having a deep bullpen supporting him.

They gave up Latos to get the above package, but it’s an even trade for both sides for short and long term needs.

Street is just as good as the departed free agent Bell and maintains the bullpen hierarchy with Luke Gregerson as the set-up man and Street closing.

Carlos Quentin will be looking to have a big year as he heads for free agency and the Padres acquired him for two minor league pitchers who’d fallen out of favor with the organization.

Josh Byrnes is a category above Jed Hoyer as GM.

—

The hot stove losers and clubs that made lateral maneuvers will be discussed in upcoming posts.

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Ryan Ludwick a Good Signing for the Reds

The difference between the Padres having Ryan Ludwick and the Reds having Ryan Ludwick is that the Padres were relying on him to be one of their main run producers and the Reds aren’t.

Following the trade of Adrian Gonzalez, the Padres offense was predictably horrific. Acquisitions made to counteract Gonzalez’s departure---Jason Bartlett, Orlando Hudson and the retention of Ludwick---were supposed to help them at least stay reasonably competitive. Built on strong pitching, the logic sort of made sense.

Of course it didn’t work in practice.

Ludwick had been a pretty good journeyman bat before he had his career year in 2008 batting mostly between Albert Pujols and Troy Glaus. Before and after that, he’d either been an extra bat who had some pop or was surrounded by unintimidating mediocrity in the batting order.

As a Padre in 2011, Ludwick batted .218 at home with 5 homers and a .302 on base percentage. Overall, he wasn’t much better on the road so the cavernous PetCo Park can’t be blamed for his lack of power. When he was sent to the Pirates at the trading deadline, he went from the team that finished 15th in the National League in runs scored to the team that finished 14th.

He didn’t help the Pirates either.

Is that Ludwick’s fault?

No.

He is what he is and what he is will help the Reds.

Ludwick will function much better as an “oh yeah, him” batter in the bottom of the order who’ll hit 20 homers in a power-friendly park and have the opposing pitchers saying, “oh yeah, him” rather than rolling their eyes that he’s batting 4th and a team actually expected to compete with that the case.

Bear in mind that this is Dusty Baker we’re talking about as Reds manager so there’s every possibility that he’ll find a way to write Corey Patterson’s name in the lineup despite the fact that Patterson is not on his team. But with Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Scott Rolen, Brandon Phillips and Drew Stubbs, there won’t be any overwhelming expectations for Ludwick to repeat that 37 homer, .966 OPS performance he posted in 2008. It was a great season that won’t happen again.

But the Reds needed a veteran outfielder and they got one cheaply ($2.5 million) and on a short-term basis (1-year) in Ludwick.

They’re going for it in 2012 and this is a good move.

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An Idea For A Yankees Reality Show During The Postseason; A Note For Chris Lincecum

• Since they're not going to be playing this October, maybe there's a way to keep the Yankees in the public eye:

In general, I can't stand reality shows; the only ones I watch are Ramsay's Kitchen Nightmares or whatever my fiancee watches that I happen to catch a glimpse of out of the

corner of my eye while doing something creative and intelligent that I'm benevolent enough to share with the townspeople. That being said, I have an idea that will keep the Yankees in the spotlight this October and that is having cameras follow the principal players in former manager Joe Torre's departure as they watch him managing the Dodgers in the playoffs. It could work and it could work BIG!!!
Think about it. What kind of reactions would Randy Levine, Hank Steinbrenner, Hal Steinbrenner, Felix Lopez (they could film him taking care of the lawns on the fields in Tampa) and even Brian Cashman elicit as the Yankees are cleaning out their stadium without any post-season revenue and Torre simultaneously has his new team receiving the national exposure and is cementing his

reputation as a "wizened baseball genius" with his thirteenth straight post-season appearance? It was Levine and the Steinbrenners who wanted Torre out and Cashman didn't go out of his way to save his longtime partner, so why not give them a forum to vent as their decision, in the short-term at least, looks horrendous?
They could even extend the coverage to broadcaster Michael Kay, who did the equivalent of dumping on Torre's Yankee managerial grave only after the manager was gone indicating some vague sense of protectiveness over the Yankees organization by not saying what he really felt about Torre over those long years as if that was part his responsibility as a supposedly "unbiased" broadcaster.
It would be even better for the show if the Dodgers had to play the Mets at some point during the playoffs, so those that are embittered enough to wish ill-will on Torre and loathe the idea that the Mets are still playing and the Yankees aren't would have to make a choice

between rooting for their former manager or rooting for the Mets or even at some point having to root for the Red Sox. Just imagine...
I'm half-kidding about this, but there is a point. While I'm sure that the majority of the Yankees organization wishes Torre nothing but the best, you can't tell me that it's not going to make those that pushed him out the door crazy if he coaxes the Dodgers into the playoffs after their handpicked successor, Joe Girardi, had such a struggle in his first season as the manager; you can't tell me that many of the players still in that clubhouse who fondly remember Torre's handling of everything inherent with the job of managing that team don't miss him and wish he were still there.
I'm trying to imagine the irony of the Yankees hierarchy sitting in their offices watching the

playoffs in either the NLDS game five or NLCS game seven and chanting, "Let's Go Mets!!" over and over again so they don't have to hear about Joe Torre managing in another World Series with the Dodgers while the Yankees are plotting a way to overcome the embarrassment of a $210 million payroll that finished in fourth place. After everything that happened, it would be kind of appropriate...and a ratings winner!!!

• Chris Lincecum should strike now and write a book about his son Tim's workout regimen:

With the number of blog hits I get from people looking for information about Tim Lincecum's

workout, mechanics and stretching program, Chris Lincecum should write a book about how he taught his son to pitch. I've already advised those that end up here looking for information not to follow advice they find on the internet without truly understanding what they're doing----Blog 8/31, but they're still searching for it and doing so at their own peril. There's a market for such a guide and he should get it out there while his son is still healthy and it's such a hot topic.

• Rays 4-Red Sox 2:

Here's something I don't quite understand, Troy Percival was removed from the game because his back tightened up from all the warming up and sitting down throughout the game; but if he wasn't feeling right, why was he well enough to start the bottom of the fourteenth inning, but suddenly not well enough after he'd loaded the bases with nobody out and needed to be replaced because of the injury?

• Giants 4-Diamondbacks 3:

I generally don't question pitch selection unless there's an egregious and obvious error; many times, the pitch is the right one, but is in the wrong location; but after the latest Diamondbacks loss, I

have to wonder what catcher Miguel Montero was thinking in calling for closer Brandon Lyon to throw a high fastball instead of another curveball to Giants utilityman Eugenio Velez with two outs, two strikes, two runners on base and a one-run lead.
Maybe the Diamondbacks scouting reports said that Velez was vulnerable to a high, hard fastball and Lyon does throw in the upper nineties, but Velez had also looked clueless on two curveballs thrown by Lyon; Montero called for the high fastball; exaggerated the call by making a rising motion with his catcher's mitt; and was only in a half-squat because he wanted the pitch so high. Lyon made the pitch and Velez ripped it into the gap to score the tying and winning runs and send the Diamondbacks spiraling out of San Francisco.
And where was Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin during all of this? During his playing

career, Melvin was a defensively minded catcher who only lasted in the majors as long as he did (ten years) because of his defense and handling of pitchers; doesn't he see what's happening on the field and let his catcher know what he should be doing not just based on scouting reports, but by observation? I guarantee if Lyon had thrown a hard curve in the dirt, Velez would've struck out; but he threw a fastball up in Velez's eyes and the results are there for all to see, especially for a Diamondbacks team in full and apparently unstoppable free-fall.

• Heads must roll in San Diego for the good of the organization:

Buster Olney linked an article yesterday in which Padres GM Kevin Towers wouldn't guarantee manager Bud Black's return next season----Article. It would be of infinite arrogance and a total lack of interest in the remaining fans of the team if no one took the fall for this

soon-to-be 100 loss disaster, but should Black be the one to take the blame and pay the price?
The Padres, a Moneyball team led by their team president Sandy Alderson, install the manager and instruct him on just about every aspect of his handling of the team and pay him a relatively meager salary in comparison to other organizations. Black's done a bad job this year, there's no question about that; but look at their roster. With the lack of power that Black has is an implied lack of responsibility. If he doesn't get credit for the wins, then he shouldn't get the blame for the losses either.
I'm convinced the Padres are arrogant enough to move forward with the same crew that created this mess, but they're not that stupid (I don't think) that they'll move forward without doing something to placate an angry fan base and let them know that they're making a move even if said move isn't going to make much of a difference one way or the other. Heads are going to roll in San Diego; the question is if they're going to be the right heads; if they're sacrificing Black and no one else, then it would be little more than a sham to deflect blame from the real culprits who spawned this woeful and hapless organization into their current state, most prominently team president Sandy Alderson.

The Triumphant(!) Return Of Carl Pavano And Other Stories

• Yankees 5-Orioles 3:
  

It wasn't a David Cone/seven no-hit innings in a comeback from aneurysm surgery kind of performance for Carl Pavano, but all things being equal, it wasn't all that bad. Pavano's stuff wasn't great;

his control wasn't great; and he was lucky, but after four years of embarrassment on and off the field, a win is a win is a win. Before anyone gets all enthusiastic about a possible useful month from

Pavano, it has to be remembered that he acquitted himself well in his two starts in April of 2007 before going on the disabled list with Tommy John surgery, so it's a start-by-start thing with him and the Yankees should put him out on the mound as long as he says he's able and use him for whatever they can get out of him over the last month.
The thing that sticks out for me in this whole episode was revealed in the recap of the game in the New York Times----Story. Here's the relevant clip:

When the Yankees were courting Pavano in 2004 — taking him to “Mamma Mia!” on Broadway, with General Manager Brian Cashman dancing in the aisles — they never could have expected what would happen to their $39.95 million, and medical expenses.

They took him to see Mamma Mia!? And they used this as a selling point? And Brian

Cashman, the general manager of the New York Yankees, was dancing in the aisles? Say what you want about Pavano on the field, but off the field he's a guy's guy; he chases girls, drives fast cars and lives his life; I find it hard to believe he had any interest whatsoever in Mamma Mia! other than scouring the cast for potential dates. In fact, if the idea were suggested to me to go see the show as part of the free agent courting process, there's a pretty good chance I would've gone to see the show and afterwards dragged Cashman into an alley, beaten him up and taken his wallet.

• Angels 7-Twins 5; the importance of long relievers as game stabilizers:

The most unsung parts of any winning team are the long relievers who rarely receive attention unless they do something bad; don't make much money; don't accrue gaudy stats

and are unappreciated by the general public. Smart baseball people know how important it is to have a pitcher who's able to enter a game in the middle innings and calm things down because the only time these types of pitchers get into a game is when the starting pitcher is knocked out early. One of the ignored pieces of the Los Angeles Angels bullpen is veteran lefty Darren Oliver.
Oliver was a successful starter early in his career and has fashioned a new job for himself as a long man out of the bullpen. He was an important part of the 2006 Mets and is now imperative to the Angels because when one of their starters gets knocked around, it's Oliver who's called upon. Many times, the game is in danger of getting out of hand when the long man enters; usually his team ends up losing no matter how well or poorly he does; but it's when he comes into a game with his team behind and stabilizes things, giving his team a chance to come back, that his value is realized.
In last night's game against the Twins, the Angels built a 6-1 lead for starter Jon Garland before the Twins started pecking away and got to within 6-4 in the fifth inning with runners on second and third and one out; Garland was yanked in favor of Oliver. Oliver proceeded to get Justin Morneau to ground out to first, scoring one run to make it 6-5; Jason Kubel grounded to second to end the inning. Oliver pitched the sixth and seventh innings, allowing only an infield single before giving way to the glamorous (and better-paid) parts of the Angels

bullpen, set-up man Scot Shields and closer Francisco Rodriguez. Shields gets the eighth inning "hold"; Rodriguez gets the save; and Oliver gets the appreciation from his teammates for stopping the Twins rally and getting them to the money men.
Oliver's an understated type who doesn't want any publicity; and he's come close to retiring several times; first when he was cut by the Mets on the last day of spring training 2006, only to see the team change their minds and bring him back; and then before the Angels called with a job offer that was partially accepted because he wanted to be closer to his family if he was going to continue to play. There are many games that are getting out-of-hand when a pitcher like Oliver enters and no one notices if the team doesn't come back; but there are also many games like last night's win, which might not have happened if the Angels didn't have a guy like Oliver who can handle the pressure, throws strikes and does his job without complaint.

• Blue Jays 11-Red Sox 0; Vernon Wells pads his stats with a team not really in, but not completely out of contention:
  

I've called Vernon Wells a player making $100 million rather than a $100 million player because he's essentially done nothing since signing that big contract to forgo free agency and stay with the Blue Jays. The argument that injuries have curtailed his production doesn't account for his woeful 2007 season----Wells Stats----but now he's starting to heat up after missing a big chunk of this season. Yesterday, Wells homered twice and his numbers are looking pretty good; if he has a solid final month and stays healthy, he'll be close to 20 homers and 85 RBI, but injuries or not, is that a season worthy of a player with Wells's contract?
A player who is worth the money that Wells is making is not putting up these numbers once his team is out of contention. Where would the Cardinals be if Albert Pujols hadn't put off elbow surgery to play through the pain? There were many voices, credible and not, saying

that since the Cardinals looked to be so terrible in the spring that Pujols should just have the surgery immediately rather than trying to drag a rickety and unusable cart like the rest of the Cardinals roster on his back.
A guy like Wells with his superior talent should have been putting these numbers up early in the season when the Blue Jays were desperate for power, their front office was making decisions that were based on money rather than wins (releasing Frank Thomas), and they weren't scoring enough runs to support the solid work of their pitching staff. Wells has gotten hot now that the Blue Jays----67-62, two games behind the Yankees and not in any realistic contention barring an almost impossible Rockies-like hot streak----are playing out the string and trying to put up a respectable record to again save GM J.P. Ricciardi's job.
The reality of the situation would be obvious to people paying attention to the circumstances in which a player puts up his numbers, but given the way the Blue Jays ownership has been taken in by the bluster of Riccardi along with his embarrassing missteps, there's every possibility they're going to take Wells's hot streak as a portent for the future; if they do that, there's no reason to believe that they're going to take proper steps to fix their franchise, which ends every season with 80-some wins leading them to think that they're going to contend the next year, only to repeat the process again and again.

• Giants 4-Padres 3; the Padres should trade Jake Peavy:

A few weeks ago, I wondered whether a devoid franchise like the Padres should try to

recover as quickly as possible by trading their two most marketable quantities in Adrian Gonzalez and Jake Peavy; now I know they should trade Jake Peavy. The Padres (48-81), heading toward 100 losses and with an owner in the midst of a divorce and possibly cutting the team payroll down to $40 million, have no hope of contending in the near future. Peavy, with his brutally violent motion is a pitcher who's destined to get hurt, but he has a reasonable contract through 2012----contract----and many teams have the prospects and motivation to take a chance on Peavy.
I don't have any faith at all in the Padres front office; nor do I think they'd be able to extract an adequate haul for a former Cy Young Award winner with or without his terrible mechanics (these ain't the brilliantly smart and savvy Marlins we're talking about here), but if they're slashing salary, they'll be better-served to re-stock the organization as best they can and they can do that by putting Peavy out on the market to see who bites, because someone definitely will.

Who Would've Thought In March...

• Who would've thought that by August 21, these things would've happened:
  

That the Tampa Bay Rays would be fighting for the best record in baseball and be ten games ahead of the Yankees.
That Manny Ramirez would finally aggravate the Red Sox to the point where they decided to get him out of town once and for all and pay his salary to leave.

That the Yankees would undergo such a rough transition with a

new manager in Joe Girardi (who still appears to have a lot to learn) and that their young starters would be injured and terrible, respectively. (Actually, someone called the Ian Kennedy disaster----meeeeeeeeee!!!)
That the Orioles, having cleared out their veterans and started a legit rebuilding project, would be flirting with .500 and playing very respectably.
That the Minnesota Twins, sans Johan Santana and Torii Hunter and with a patchwork lineup, would be fighting for first place.
That the Detroit Tigers would become the latest version of The Worst Team Money Could Buy?
That after coming within one win of the World Series, the Cleveland Indians would stumble

badly enough to clear out most of their veterans and start another rebuilding project.
That Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley would post such massive offensive numbers and that Ian Kinsler would even get himself into the

conversation for MVP.
That the Seattle Mariners would see everything go wrong far beyond a worst case scenario; Stephen King couldn't come up with a series of nightmares as disastrous as the Mariners 2008 season.
That Mike Pelfrey of the Mets would develop this quickly to become a top young starter in the National League and win a probable 15-16 games.
That Ryan Howard would start morphing into a kind, gentle version of Dave Kingman and that his numbers would tumble so rapidly; and that reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins's play wouldn't live up to his mouth.

That the historically durable Tom Glavine and John Smoltz would both be lost for the season; the Braves pitching staff so top-to-bottom rotten; and that they'd be sellers instead of buyers at mid-season starting a rebuilding project.
That the Marlins would be in contention spending less money on their entire roster than Alex Rodriguez makes all season.
That the Brewers would go for broke so completely by dealing for C.C. Sabathia, who they have no chance of keeping after the season.
That even Tony La Russa, baseball's resident genius, would be able to keep the Cardinals patchwork and bargain basement roster (aside from Albert Pujols) in contention this long, especially without a closer.

That Ken Griffey Jr would allow the Reds to trade him.
That the Diamondbacks, with their excellent on-paper roster; dual-headed Cy Young Award contenders in Brandon Webb and Dan Haren; a resurgent Randy Johnson; and solid mid-season acquisitions, would be so relentlessly and unexplainably inconsistent.
That the Dodgers would acquire two future Hall of Famers for almost nothing within three weeks of each other in Manny Ramirez and Greg Maddux.
That the Padres would be so poisonously bad and that their arrogance and cheapness would permeate their organization to become almost hopeless.

These surprises----among many, many more----prove that no matter how one makes their

predictions, based on numbers or observation, there's no way to know what's going to happen in a season; no way to judge what's going to work and what isn't. The only thing to do is to watch and learn and try not to make the same mistakes again. If anything, this season is a prime indicator of why they play the games on the field rather than in a room with a bunch of nerds alternating between their stats and World of Warcraft.

Santana's Second-Half Dominance Is The Real Deal

• Mets 4-Pirates 0:

It's easy to look at a stat like career-long performance in the first half vs the second half

and scoff at the idea that there's any genuine difference; it's easy to deny the reality, but Johan Santana is again dominating and heating up in the second half of the season as he did during the majority of his time with the Twins and clearly there's something to the notion that he goes from a top tier, All Star pitcher in the first half to a Hall of Famer in the second half.
The numbers are quite different; in the first half over his career he's won 51 and lost 34 with an ERA of 3.47; 719 hits allowed in 829 innings. In the second half, his record (so far) is 53-17 with (not counting yesterday's shutout) a 2.81 ERA, and 500 hits in 647 innings. It's clear that Santana is a pitcher who takes awhile to get heated up, but once he does is something to behold. After a bad start against the Reds coming out of the All Star break, Santana has pitched two complete games; pitched eight innings once and seven innings twice; and 6 1/3 in the other game; he's allowed three runs in one start and two or less in all the others. He's entered his comfort zone and is now pitching like the Cy Young Award winner the Mets paid for.
That he's been able to overcome the ancillary factors of the big move to New York and maintain this career pattern is amazing as well. A somewhat shy, though charismatic Venezuelan coming from laid back Minnesota to "save" the Mets amid all the money and expectations; pitching much of the first half with a manager in Willie Randolph who had a guillotine hovering over his head like a comic book thought balloon; and the increasing disgust

of impatient fans (who booed him, pretty much saying, "we want you to be great now"); and media incompetents who declared him "overrated" after every start that wasn't perfect; Santana's career pattern has proved him to be exactly what everyone thought he was and more because he's pitched two complete games in the past month as well, which was something he was criticized for not doing.
He's only got five or six starts left in the regular season, so his win total isn't going to be gaudy; he's likely to end with 15 or 16 wins and barely over 200 strikeouts, but this was a transition year for him and he's been almost exactly what could reasonably have been expected; it's in the coming years where the in-his-prime Santana will show Mets fans and the rest of baseball why he's got two Cy Young Awards and will be in the running for more playing under that lucrative contract he signed to join and stay with the Mets; then we will no longer be hearing allegations that he's "overrated" anymore.

• Yankees 15-Royals 6:

Can we now formulate a definitive assessment of Brian Bannister? There are some cases where it's best to trust one's eyes and not the stunning and unexpected results a player delivers and that looks to be what's happened with Bannister. A big league pitcher cannot

allow ten runs, ten hits, three walks and three homers in 1+ inning if he expects to be in the big leagues very long. He's a streaky pitcher who happens to run together five or six good starts in a row; this makes people believe that his stuff is better than what it is even when he's getting pounded, which is the majority of the rest of the time.
Ambiorix Burgos, acquired by the Mets in the ridiculed trade of Bannister, is pitching in the minors and closing in on a return to the big leagues after Tommy John surgery; if he helps the Mets short-handed bullpen in September, are we still going to hear about how bad a trade that was? It was an evaluation on the part of the Mets front office that is looking to be correct; Bannister is a journeyman whose hot streak made him look like one that got away; he wasn't one that got away; he was one that was dumped because he wasn't any good.

• Here's a 2009 solution for the San Diego Padres to at least make them interesting:

If the Padres want to inject some life into their club and have a chance to compete with young, inexpensive players, they should (bleep)can the Moneyball adherence; fire manager

Bud Black and replace him with Wally Backman. Backman would take almost no money for the opportunity; he's a Billy Martin-style manager----gifted on the field, flawed off----and he's not bothered about having to try to be innovative to win some games. Backman is currently managing the Joliet Jackhammers in the Northern League and their record of 36-46 isn't all that impressive, but they do some things that the Padres should appreciate with their obsession with being cheap and using the Moneyball system. The Jackhammers have a high team-wide on base percentage----stats----and Backman is a raving maniac who'll flip over food tables and bench stars to get his point across.
They're not going to do it and if they truly intend to slash their payroll some $30+ million to end at around $40 million for next year, they're going to have built in excuses for being the worst team in baseball. They'll continue down the road they're on; pointing to stats as the

reason for their player moves and the payroll constraints as to why they're so awful, lose close to 100 games and be somehow bulletproof from criticism by those who are themselves invested in sabermetrics above all else. Backman would probably be a short-term solution because he's a pretty good shot to pull another standard part in the Billy Martin package----the self-destruct lever, but it's something that may work and overcome a lack of talent, money and competence to mitigate the shortfalls in San Diego; at the very least, it would make them interesting.

The Increased Stress-Level From Watching The Mets

• Mets 5-Padres 3:

I don't know if there's a team in major league baseball that's more aggravating to watch than the New York Mets. No lead is ever safe especially with the injuries and trouble they're

having scoring runs and, with last season's epic collapse still such a fresh wound, there's an aspect of having to change channels or cover one's eyes to avoid even the possibility of a new, innovative way to lose.
In this most recent series alone the Mets, playing a dead team in the San Diego Padres, won two of three games like a boxer ahead on points and staying away just to preserve victory. On Tuesday it took three relievers to fill injured closer Billy Wagner's increasingly unbooable shoes and somehow turn a 6-2 lead into a 6-5 win. On Thursday, the bullpen blew another of Johan Santana's wins and had to wriggle out of a bases loaded, no-out situation in the eighth inning to keep the lead; then in the ninth, Scott Schoeneweis (whose forte is supposed to be dealing with lefties and who I said a few days ago should be made into the interim closer with Wagner out) gave up a game-tying homer to a lefty batter in Jody Gerut. In the bottom of the inning, Endy Chavez led off with a

single, then Jose Reyes popped a bunt up to the pitcher. It took David Wright's game-winning homer to prevent extra innings against a team that should be used as a punching bag instead of another reason for a trip to the cardiologist.
Before he passed away, the father of former NFL quarterback Vinny Testaverde was unable to watch the games because he had a bad heart and got too excited, endangering his health. I get the same idea with most of the Mets games----win or lose----except they're not exacerbating someone's heart problem, they're causing it.

• Good move----Rays acquire Bradford; useless move----Phillies acquire Eyre:

The Rays acquisition of Chad Bradford from the Orioles is an excellent move to augment an already strong bullpen for the Rays. Bradford is a well-liked, calm, experienced veteran who

throws strikes with a funky submarine style of pitching and can still get out lefties if necessary. What this also does is add another dimension of diversity to the Rays bullpen. Wave after wave of different pitchers can be thrown at an opponent from Bradford and his quirky motion and minimal velocity; to the flamethrowing Grant Balfour; to the lefty J.P. Howell; to the sliders of Dan Wheeler; and the experience and meanness of closer Troy Percival. The Rays are serious about winning while they have the opening.
On the other side of the coin is the Phillies acquisition of Scott Eyre. Not only has Eyre been just awful this year, but what does it say that a team in first place like the Cubs is dealing a veteran, lefty relief pitcher to a team that they might have to face in the playoffs? While it's true that Eyre is a free agent at the end of the season, has been okay against lefties and a change sometimes awakens veterans, the Phillies also gave up a right-handed pitcher who looks like he has some ability in minor leaguer Brian Schlitter. Schlitter has 53 strikeouts in 44 innings for Clearwater in the Florida State League.
I'm wondering if the Phillies ownership is keeping tabs on what

outgoing GM Pat Gillick is doing to try and win right now because from the deals he's made for the likes of Joe Blanton and now Eyre, it looks like he's not at all hesitant to gut the farm system of remaining prospects to win now and the team isn't even that much better because of it. While Gillick isn't a kamikaze-type GM, he may be allowing the fact that he's leaving after this season to cloud his usually solid judgment. If that's the case, the organization's going to have problems in the future with this go-for-broke mentality especially since they're only getting mediocre veterans in return.

• Gauging the future of two of the worst teams in baseball:

I'm through waiting for the Padres to get a similar media-roasting as the Mariners have gotten this year even though they're in worse shape; but let's look at which team is going to have a better chance to jump into contention quickly.
As bad as the Mariners have been, their future is not dire. They have the goods to jump back into respectability and even contention as early as next season if they don't panic and

do stupid things to appease critics. They need a power-hitting first baseman and may need to clear out some players whose paycheck doesn't match their production (Ichiro), but other than that, they have the one thing any contending team is going to need----pitching.
Felix Hernandez is only 22 and will be a star. Les Miserables, Erik Bedard has been a disaster, but to dump him for pennies on the dollar would make no sense for the Mariners after what they gave up to get him; he also has one thing in his favor that would indicate he's going to stay healthy in 2009 and have a big year: impending free agency. Carlos Silva can't be as bad next year as he's been this year and is still a solid back of the rotation starter; I think he's been greatly affected by the poisonous atmosphere in the Mariners clubhouse and as that improves, so will Silva. They're also making Brandon Morrow into a starting pitcher and if he can win 10-12 games next year, they've got a solid rotation. Their bullpen will still be anchored by J.J. Putz, who isn't as great as he was in 2007, but is still a top-echelon closer. If they improve the lineup and clear out some disinterested veterans, they could be pretty good next year.
What do the Padres have to look forward to for the future? Greg Maddux? Trevor Hoffman? Jody Gerut? Scott Hairston? They have an MVP candidate in Adrian Gonzalez; there are some solid youngsters in San Diego like Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley; but Chris Young can't be counted on to stay healthy and deliver more than 10-12 wins and 150-180 innings; Heath Bell will probably be a decent closer in replacing Hoffman, but is leveling off after his brilliant work last season. And Jake Peavy is going to get hurt.

The main differences between the two organizations is that the Mariners saw that what they were doing wasn't working and are going to bring in a new GM/manager combination next season. If the manager, as rumored, is going to be Bobby Valentine, then they're going to get better and get better fast. The Padres don't appear prepared to change the road they're on by getting rid of anyone; they appear intent on moving forward as they have with downsliding veterans and journeymen. And why shouldn't they? They're not getting any of the deserved mocking and criticism that the Mariners are getting, so the pressure isn't there to change even if, on the whole, their organization is in worse shape with little hope for the future.

• A note on Brett Favre:

Is it just me, or is there anyone else out there thinking that Brett Fav...ruh is regretting coming out of retirement to go and play for the Jets? (The following YouTube clip isn't really relevant to the above statement, but I'm just seeing if I can link a video into my blogs. Thanks to the Fulbright Scholar and his step-by-step instructions, the attempt isn't ending with me flinging my fiancee's laptop against a wall.)

Paul DePodesta's Pretentious, Self-Serving Blog And Other Stories

• The best laid plans of the pompous and inept:

I've just about given up trying to understand how even the most ardent and determined Moneyball advocates can still defend Paul DePodesta and the Padres. No one has provided

any explanation----and it doesn't even have to be a good one, something would be welcome no matter how absurd----for his on paper and in practice ineptitude in not only working for the Padres, but in his time as the GM of the Dodgers. I'm not going to get into any conspiracy theories, but for Moneyball believers, who put so much emphasis on results over appearances, there has to be an agenda in defending the likes of DePodesta whose main attribute as an executive seems to be that he's one of them.
I was looking at his blog and besides the fact that it's pompous, condescending and simply boring (to quote Ball Four, his writing would "gag a maggot"), it's also delusional and self-serving. If I were team chairman John Moores, I would tell DePodesta to shitcan the blog and get to work and making the team that he helped formulate less of a laughingstock. I honestly believe that on the day he started the blog----May 9th----and the Padres were sitting at 12-23, he truly believed that the team, as constructed, was going to experience a "market correction" and end up at the top of the NL West standings and have a great shot at winning a championship.
I'm not throwing stones here because I too fell, in part, for the press coverage of how "smart" the Padres were; how they built an economical and structured team formulated to not only win but to make money, by looking past their drastically flawed roster and barren minor league system to pick them to finish at

79-83. There were credible people who picked them to win the World Series, so it's not a narrowly made mistake. Now, as the team has stumbled into a worst-case-scenario, there's little left for DePodesta and his defenders to do but repeatedly attempt to extol his virtues as an executive and try to find ways to promulgate the myth that the team is "building for the future".
They're building for the future with Greg Maddux. They're building for the future with Brian Giles. They're building for the future with Trevor Hoffman (who blew another game last night). They're building for the future with journeymen like Scott Hairston, Jody Gerut, Michael "The Right Hook" Barrett. They're building for the future alright----if it's the decaying wasteland from The Terminator films and the post-apocalyptic scenario.
His blog is agenda-driven and without any firm concept of reality. It would be refreshing if he openly said the words, "Y'know what? It took awhile for me to wake up to the reality, but this team's crud." Instead, we get reports on the minor league system and the Latin American free agent signees; we get professorial primers on the post-trading deadline ability to make deals by getting players through waivers; we get delusions and defense of the indefensible; and we get DePodesta increasingly functioning as the Padres front man which, mark my words, will result in current GM Kevin Towers being allowed to leave and DePodesta taking over as GM after the season. And I'm still waiting for a realistic defense of the Padres front office, but one doesn't appear to be forthcoming. Perhaps it's because no one could come up with one----even one that's patently absurd and unbelievable to even the most intense sabermetricians----because the results are on paper and in practice for all to see on a daily basis.

• Angels 1-Yankees 0:

The Angels were hot before they got Mark Teixeira and now they look even more

energized. That's one of the aspects of making a bold and somewhat risky move like the Angels made in getting a player like Teixeira that the sabermetricians don't appreciate and account for when they say that Teixeira's acquisition is only for the post-season because they've already won the division; it's a signal to the team that the organization is serious about going for it NOW!!! That they're jolting the roster with electricity because they believe in what they have and needed that one piece to win a championship.

Now, it may not work; there's every possibility that the Angels run into a hot pitcher like a Joba Chambelain or Jon Lester; or a young team that doesn't know any better and jumps into the playoffs fearless and unconcerned about pressure like the Rays and the Angels get bounced in the first round before they know what happened; but the signal was sent that the organization is in it to win it this year and that adds a spark like the Angels are experiencing since the trade.
On the Yankees side, they've run into that hot team and are getting caught in the crossfire, but it must be frustrating to get such a good performance from a guy like Sidney Ponson only to see it wasted. He has only so many good games in him and they have to win them when they get them.

• Rangers fire two coaches:

I'm starting to like Texas Rangers GM Jon Daniels. First he impressed me by dumping the aforementioned Ponson while he was pitching well for them because he was causing trouble within the team and now he dumps pitching coach Mark Connor and bullpen coach Dom Chiti

to get a head start on next season when the Rangers might have a chance to contend if their pitching improves.
These moves may have come from the notoriously deliberate and ruthless Nolan Ryan, but it makes sense for the Rangers to do this now to give the new coaches----Andy Hawkins and Jim Colborn----a head start to look at what's there and what can be salvaged before deciding whom to keep and whom to dump. They're playing well and may finish over .500, but if their intent is to be in a genuine playoff race next year, they're going to have to straighten out or improve their pitching and letting the new coaches evaluate makes plenty of sense.
On another note, here's the clip taken verbatim from the Associated Press report on the firings on ESPN:

Rangers manager Ron Washington called the firings "the toughest thing I've ever had to be a part of. But sometimes you've got to go in a different direction."vf cbhngvfbnvcfvbhnm,vg

It makes perfect sense until the last----words? prayers? spells? chants?----I don't know what that last thing means. Is it some kind of code? Was Washington so broken up that he started muttering incoherently? Or did the reporter's cat walk across the keyboard and accidentally press "SUBMIT" before the story was done? Is it a way to send the fired coaches to another dimension so no one can hear their story? Any ideas? Anyone?

• More on the Brett Fav...ruh saga:

Brett Fav..ruh clearly has no motivation to preserve his legacy as the ultimate gamer (which was pretty absurd to begin with and more of a media creation than objective reality) if he's really thinking about taking the Packers offer of $20 million to stay away from camp and to stay retired----ESPN Story.
First, he has to have enough money to live like a king for the rest of his life with or without the $20 million that the Packers are offering. Second, either he wants to play or he doesn't; is

that money going to replace his desire to play football somewhere? Anywhere? Part of Fav...ruh's appeal to the masses was that he always looked like he'd be just as happy playing on a sandlot with four spectators as he would in front of 50,000 maniacs who wanted to coronate him at home, or kill him on the road. Now the desire to play is absorbed by money?
If he has any interest in retaining some shred of his reputation, he has to come back and play be it with the Jets, Bucs, Vikings, Packers or whoever; if he doesn't, he'll have tarnished his well-crafted image, perhaps beyond all repair if he hasn't already by considering the offer to begin with. So much for the simple, country guy who just wants to play football for the joy it brings him and his fans, who are probably becoming more and more disenchanted with their hero every time this story takes another embarrassing turn. And I don't need to see any weepy press conferences when he receives the check to stay away either.

Yankees Acquire Xavier Nady And Damaso Marte

• Yankees acquire Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte from the Pirates for Ross Ohlendorf, Jose Tabata, Phil Coke and George Kontos:

Yankees GM Brian Cashman finally used some of that "organizational depth" he constantly

refers to and filled two gaping holes. In acquiring Xavier Nady, it's hard to believe that the Yankees are under any illusions about what they're going to get out of him. He's not the .330 hitter he's been this year and he's had a history of being injury prone and/or unlucky; that being said, he's a good guy in the clubhouse; handled New York before and got some big clutch hits with the Mets; is a decent enough outfielder and can play first base; and he also hits well enough to the opposite field that the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium will be put to good use. With Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada both out or hindered for extended periods, the Yankees needed to beef up their offense and Nady is just good enough to do that. He's going to make a lot of money in arbitration this winter given the year he's having, but the Yankees have a load of money coming off the books and if Nady plays well, they're not going to blink about paying him.
Damaso Marte is a former Yankees farmhand who's bounced around and found a home with the Pirates as more than just a lefty specialist. His numbers against righties are good

enough that he's no Mike Myers/Tony Fossas where leaving him in to pitch to a righty----any righty----is done so at their own risk. He was a workhorse with the White Sox before and during their championship season and pitched well for the Pirates as a set-up man and occasional closer. He has a $6 million team option for 2009, but the Yankees won't think twice about exercising that or extending it if Marte does well for them.
The Pirates had previously been asking for the moon for both Nady and Marte, but acquitted themselves well enough in this trade. They probably wouldn't have gotten more from any other interested team, so it was smart to take the Yankees deal when it was offered. Ross Ohlendorf struggled as a long-man/mop-up man for the Yankees this year

and they projected him as a reliever, but he showed potential as a starter in the minors and may be better off in that role as a potential innings-eater at the middle-to-back-end of the rotation. He's big enough (6'4" 235) to handle a heavy workload. George Kontos is a right-handed pitcher who's also big (6'3" 215) and has put up big strikeout numbers in the minors as a starter. (Presumably both Ohlendorf and Kontos are smart as the former went to Princeton and the latter went to Northwestern.) Phil Coke sounds like more of a project than prospect since he's already 26, but he's lefty and has put up promising strikeout numbers. The big part of the trade for the Pirates, other than stockpiling some power arms, is Jose Tabata.
Tabata was one of the Yankees "untouchable" prospects that they were reluctant to

include in any trades for veteran pitchers like Johan Santana (although I think Cashman was just trying to find excuses not to trade for Santana and then have to pay him as the Mets did). Tabata is still a baby as he's only going to be twenty next month; his walk totals imply plate discipline impressive in such a young player; he can run and will develop power as he matures; he's struggled a bit at Double A this year, but not enough to raise any questions about his future. If the Yankees make the playoffs and get what they need out of Nady and Marte and the Pirates get use from at least one of the pitchers and Tabata becomes a productive big leaguer, neither team is going to regret making this trade which had to be made from both ends. The Yankees couldn't afford not to improve both their bullpen and injury-ravaged outfield and the Pirates couldn't let their demands stand in the way of clearing salary for players they probably weren't going to keep past 2009 and who weren't going to be present when the Pirates become true contenders anyway.

• Now that you mention it, the Padres should trade Jake Peavy as well:

Joe at Statistician Magician commented on my last posting that if my logic that the Padres should trade Adrian Gonzalez is accurate, then they should also deal Jake Peavy, and he's right; more so, in fact. Peavy is Tommy John-surgery waiting to happen with that motion and if

the Padres are going to replenish their organization as quickly as possible, they should take advantage of Peavy's gaudy results to hypnotize another team into surrendering a big chunk of their farm system to get him and let them worry about when his arm is going to explode. The problem is that I have no faith in the Padres hierarchy to make a Marlins-like deal to extract slabs of another organization's best, blue chip prospects and develop them into stars; so as long as they still have the current management team, it's a big risk to do anything of consequence that would haunt the organization if it doesn't work.

• Mets 7-Cardinals 2:

Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen is going to get the credit for the development of Mike Pelfrey, but the hot streak started well before Warthen arrived and while Rick Peterson was

still there. Peterson's departure probably helped guys like Oliver Perez (who's a head case), but it doesn't diminish the good work he did with the Mets. I don't think anyone could've expected Pelfrey to mature and develop this fast and he has a chance to win 16 or 17 games if he keeps it up, and who would've predicted that?
I had to look back into my previous postings to make sure I never said anything too derogatory about Carlos Delgado and I didn't. While guys like Mike Francesa and the other "experts" at WFAN and in other places were saying that Delgado should be dumped or released----released!----my view was that as a veteran player who has lost bat speed, Delgado can't catch up to the fastballs of top-notch pitchers anymore, but since they had other holes and few alternatives, the Mets had little choice but to keep writing Delgado's name in the lineup and hope for a resurgence. Well, that hope has come true (for awhile at least) as Delgado has carried the Mets during this hot streak.
Looking at it objectively, Delgado's lack of production was considered age-related when it

may have been just a slump. If he were ten years younger, no one would've said a word about releasing him; they would have come up with other suggestions, but releasing him and saying that he's "finished" wouldn't have entered the conversation (or PEDs might have been suggested); but with a struggling veteran at age 36, in the age of testing for PEDs and, possibly more importantly, amphetamines, it's harder for such a veteran to regain the public confidence without a sustained streak like Delgado has had. That he's had it has made people like Francesa look foolish. And this isn't an indictment for the statements that were made; Delgado did look finished for much of the first half; my problem with these critics is that they have to come up with a justification for their statements and still try to weasel away from making the credibility-accruing admission: I was wrong. And if Delgado continues this hot streak, they still won't admit they were wrong; and I don't think they realize how such an attitude damages credibility, but if they haven't figured it out yet...

• Rockies 7-Reds 2; Dodgers 3-Nationals 2:

Don't look now, but the Rockies are only six games out of first place. Their position is so precarious that the next few days will determine whether they aggressively try to trade Matt Holliday, but after last year's comeback it's starting to look like they'll hang onto him at least

into the winter to see if they can come up with another hot streak.
I'm going to maintain my belief in Joe Torre and the Dodgers. They've been lucky that the Diamondbacks haven't taken control of the division and, with all their injuries and horrendous performances (see Jones, Andruw), they're still right there at the top of the division. By late August, they're going to start getting their injured veterans back; the cooling weather will rejuvenate guys like Jeff Kent and Nomar Garciaparra and they'll have a characteristic Torre-run to make the playoffs. The Wild Card, though unlikely, isn't completely out of the question for any of the three teams either.

• Braves 8-Phillies 2:

It doesn't look like that comeback against the Mets on Tuesday spurred anything in the

Phillies other than Jimmy Rollins's mouth and the benching of Rollins and his attitude could eventually become a problem within that clubhouse. Nor does it help that Brad Lidge got lit up for the first time this season last night against the Braves; it also came at a characteristically inopportune time for Lidge, who looked like he was returning to his Astros, "Lights Out" Lidge glory, but in important games, there has to be concern about his mental state and resulting performance.

Should The Padres Trade Adrian Gonzalez?

Ordinarily, the mere suggestion of a team trading a 26-year-old All Star, potential MVP and Gold Glove winner like Adrian Gonzalez would be considered absurd, but most organizations

aren't as ancient and woebegone as the San Diego Padres. Considering the wretched roster the current management has formulated, I don't have much faith in them making such a move and getting adequate return, but with the way the major league roster is constructed with veterans nearing retirement (Greg Maddux, Trevor Hoffman); declining in production (Brian Giles); high draft choices who are feast or famine (Khalil Greene); high-end talents that can't stay healthy (Chris Young); and scrapheap pickups who can be found on the waiver wire (Michael "The Right Hook" Barrett, Cha Seung Baek, Josh Banks, Jody Gerut), there's little reason for them to keep Gonzalez if they can use him and his inexpensive contract to re-stock the organization in one shot.
How many teams have the prospects and the need for a player of Gonzalez's caliber? The Yankees would probably sacrifice a chunk of their minor league system for Gonzalez, as would the Mets, Red Sox, Orioles and Rays just to name a few. The Padres minor league system doesn't have much in the cabinet, but there are some prospects like Kyle Blanks and Peter Ciofrone whose minor league numbers (for what they're worth) indicate that they could play the position adequately enough to justify moving Gonzalez if enough of a haul (two blue chip pitchers and a minor league power bat would be a good start) were coming back.
Gonzalez is on an island in that Padres lineup and his numbers to this point (26 homers, 76 RBI, 57 runs----he's driven himself in with homers in slightly less than half of those runs

scored----and 40 walks) are stunning considering that there's not earthly reason to pitch to him considering the chaff that surrounds him; he's also putting up such numbers while playing his home games in the baseball equivalent of the Grand Canyon. Imagine what he'd do at Yankee Stadium with the short right field porch to shoot at.
His contract is also ridiculously cheap. In 2007, Gonzalez signed a four-year, $9.5 million extension through 2010 with a club option for 2011. He's a player for whom any demands the Padres make wouldn't be out of line and he'd surely be more valuable than Matt Holliday since one question with Holliday is how far his

numbers would decline when taken out of Colorado; such a question would be the opposite with Gonzalez. It's something to think about and might be better considered after the season, but given the state of the Padres organization, their cheapness and all their glaring needs, they can fill numerous holes and replenish their organization in one shot if they take their biggest asset and make him available because with everything Gonzalez adds and all of his positives, it would definitely be a feeding frenzy.