The Pros And Cons Of Starting Johan Santana On Short Rest

• Johan Santana called upon to save the Mets:

After the Mets bats failed to capitalize on another game rife with opportunities against a

rookie pitcher (albeit a good one in Chris Volstad), they're now in a predicament in which they have to look at the needs of the team in the short term as opposed to the long term. Johan Santana volunteered to take the mound on three days rest this afternoon to try and save the season. Here are the objective realities of such a maneuver:

He can't be counted on to go deeply into the game unless he keeps his pitch count very low--Santana's record in the few games he's pitched on short rest in the regular season is not good, but that's actually misleading. In three starts, his record is 1-1 with a 6.14 ERA and five homers allowed in 14 2/3 innings. That being said, the numbers were bloated due to a terrible start in 2002 in which he got shelled allowing three homers to a White Sox team that could really hit. That was also Santana's first year in the starting rotation at age 23 before he became Johan Santana. In the other games he pitched on short rest, he pitched quite well.

And one of the starts was in April of 2000 when he was a rookie and the three days rest came after a relief appearance of one inning.
The final time he did it in the regular season was also after a relief appearance four days earlier in 2003. Santana also pitched on three days rest in the 2004 ALDS vs the Yankees and pitched well in both appearances in that series. The pitch counts were important then as well because he only threw 93 pitches in game one and lasted five innings and 87 pitches in game four. His history has little to do with how he's going to fare today, but clearly he's going to have to be watched closely after throwing 125 pitches on Tuesday.

Santana isn't a short-term investment--Santana is 29-years-old and is signed to a very lucrative, long-term contract to be the Mets ace as they enter their new ballpark; he's one of the cornerstones of the organization and an asset as they try to lure free agents. Overtaxing him for short-term needs and risking injury a few years down the line isn't worth it. That's the

difference between the Brewers repeatedly throwing C.C. Sabathia on three-days rest and putting Ben Sheets out there this afternoon----what difference would it make to the Brewers if both Sheets and Sabathia get hurt after signing huge money contracts elsewhere? It's not their money and they're comfortable in the knowledge that the two pitchers aren't going to beg out of such important games and still be able to look their present and future teammates in the eye; plus I don't think Sheets is going to be able to last very long today given the ominous statements coming out of Milwaukee of how he's going to "give it a shot". That brings me to the next point...

The Brewers are still in a shaky position--They haven't the faintest idea of what they're going to get from Sheets if he indeed gets out to the mound to pitch; nor do they know how long he's going to be out there; the backup pitcher they're mentioning, Dave Bush, has been

adequate but not great lately and in two of his three starts this season against the Cubs, they've done a number on him. The Brewers have gotten yeoman work from their rotten bullpen over the past week, but how long are they going to be able to count on that? Plus Cubs manager Lou Piniella looked very agitated with the mental and physical mistakes his team made last night and won't want to enter the playoffs with his team flopping around on the field like, well, like the Mets.

The Mets have no choice--With the way they've played behind every pitcher not named Santana over the past few weeks and the reality of a loss eliminating them from contention, they have to roll the dice, put Santana out there and

hope that they jump on Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco (a pitcher they've consistently pounded), get a lead big enough to entrust to that bullpen (that would have to be a pretty big lead) and get Santana out of there after 80 or so pitches. They're going to have to make a choice if the score is 1-1 in the sixth inning and Santana's scheduled to bat after having thrown 90 pitches; other than that, they can only hope to get a lead, put some pressure on the Brewers who are scheduled to start at 3:55 and win their own game. The only other thing they can do is a rain dance around Shea Stadium so Santana will be able to pitch on his regular rest tomorrow and hope that the Brewers lose today. Actually, that's probably the best of all possible scenarios aside from a Mets win and Brewers loss.

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• Indians 11-White Sox 8; Roals 8-Twins 1:

With all the ridicule the Mets receive for their back-to-back collapses, the White Sox are authoring a collapse of their own. They started the Twins series up by 2 1/2 games with seven

to play and only one win away from effectively sealing the deal and they lost all three games; then they returned home to play the retooling Indians and a rookie starter in Scott Lewis and got pounded for eleven runs. And all of this was going on while the Twins were losing 8-1 to the Royals.
Javier Vazquez is scheduled to start for the White Sox today, but after his showing in the high-pressure game against the Twins (and in other high-pressure games throughout his career) and with how manager Ozzie Guillen has been so open in his low opinion of Vazquez's courage, I wouldn't expect much other than a quick hook.
Even with all of that, there's a window of opportunity for the White Sox just as there is for

the Mets; Glen Perkins is starting for the Twins and he's been knocked around in his past four starts; pitching for the Royals is Gil Meche, who's been very good in his last two starts and generally always gives a gutty effort.
I have a feeling that this division is going to come down to Monday afternoon as the Tigers play that makeup game against the White Sox and if that's the case, then the White Sox are in trouble because veteran teams who've had a rotten year like the Tigers would like nothing better than to have another team (especially one with a manager who's despised throughout the league) to join them in their misery. In a way, it would be far worse

for the White Sox to have their season come down to Monday afternoon because the Tigers have known that they were going home after the regular season ends; the White Sox expected to be in the playoffs and it would be a kick in the gut if they got knocked out the day after the season ended by a team that had nothing to play for other than the satisfaction of knowing they've knocked out one of their division rivals whom they don't like all that much to begin with.

It's The Great Pumpkin!!!!

• Phillies 10-Braves 9:

Quote from It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown, courtesy of IMDB.com:

Linus: There he is! There he is! It's the Great Pumpkin! He's rising out of the pumpkin patch!
[Linus faints and the "Pumpkin" is really Snoopy, meanwhile Sally is seething]
Linus: What happened? Did I faint? What did he leave us? Did he leave us any toys?

The same reaction must have been exhibited by the fans who were stunned by the sight of Mike Hampton scheduled to pitch; making it out to the mound to pitch; actually pitching; pitching somewhat effectively. His line looks terrible with six earned runs and eight hits

allowed, two walks and only one strikeout, but for a guy who hasn't pitched in a big league game in three years and has had injuries to just about every single part of his body preventing him from managing to drag himself out to the mound long enough to throw a pitch, it could've been much worse and his stuff looked good enough to be able to win some games eventually. If Hampton can keep from getting hurt, he's bound to get better. Of course, he could get hurt again doing, well, doing anything considering the shaky nature of his musculature, but four innings is better than the zero innings he's given the Braves since 2005.

• Yankees 10-Red Sox 3:

Again we hear the speculation about Manny Ramirez and the possibility of him being sent out of Boston for his newest episode of pulling himself out of the lineup. Everyone conveniently forgets the negative side of "Manny being Manny" when he's hitting his clutch homers or making everyone chuckle with his bizarre behaviors, but a major part of "Manny being Manny"

is pulling himself out of the lineup with questionable injuries and doing things that angers the fans, teammates, coaching staff, manager and front office. I said recently that the Red Sox have the prospects and money to acquire Matt Holliday and play him in right field; move J.D. Drew to center field and deal with Manny for the rest of the year and decline his option----Teams That Should Hold; Teams That Should Raise, July 19.
If the Red Sox do decide to trade Manny, the only thing I can see happening is if they can formulate a three way deal with the Mets or Phillies and the Rockies to get Holliday to Boston, Manny to New York or Philadelphia and a load of stuff from the other two organizations to Colorado. Other than that, the Red Sox aren't going to trade Manny, and I still think they might end up exercising his option at the end of the year if he behaves himself helps them to another title. And it's likely to go back-and-forth several times before a final decision is made if they don't trade him in the coming days.

• Dodgers acquire Casey Blake:

Casey Blake was one of the unsung players for the Indians during their rebuilding process

and return to contention. A late bloomer, it took the Indians to give him a chance to play regularly after he bounced from the Blue Jays to the Twins, to the Orioles, back to the Twins and finally to the Indians where he became an everyday player at the age of 29. Able to play first base, third base and right field, Blake is one of those players that many don't notice until he does something that helps his team win a big game, but those that were paying attention know how good and useful Blake is to a team with playoff aspirations. The days of musical third baseman for the Dodgers of 2008 are over.
Indians GM Mark Shapiro knows what he's doing and in acquiring John Meloan he gets a

24-year-old righty with big strikeout numbers throughout his professional career. He's been terrible statistically this year, but the Indians are going to offer an opportunity to make it in the big leagues as they rebuild, so if he's going to make it, he's in the right place. 22-year-old Carlos Santana is a utility player who can catch and has come into his own at the plate in high A ball this year with a massive offensive year. His numbers----14 homers; 94 RBI; 83 runs scored; a .318 average; .424 OBP; and 52 of his 109 hits have been for extra bases----indicate that he's got a chance to be a solid big leaguer a few years down the road. Shapiro isn't stupid and knows how to mine other organizations for talent, so with a player like Blake who was in demand, it's safe to say Shapiro got what he wanted in the deal. This is a positive move for both sides.
The Indians also acquired Anthony Reyes from the Cardinals for minor league righty Luis Perdomo. Reyes was once considered one of the jewels of the Cardinals system, but it had

become increasingly clear that he wasn't going to make it in St. Louis; needed a change of scenery to a venue where he'd be put into a role and left there; and he needed to get away from Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan. For all of the success stories the famed duo has formulated, there are always a few pitchers for whom their methods don't sink in. It happened most recently with Jason Marquis and now Reyes is going to get another chance somewhere else. Perdomo is 24, has spent this season with the Indians high A and double A affiliates and put up big strikeout numbers as a reliever. It wouldn't be surprising to see him in St. Louis before the season's over for the Cardinals to see if they can strike some rookie lightning out of the bullpen.