There's Losing And There's LOSING!!!!!

• Cubs 7-Brewers 6:

I was watching the Cubs and the Brewers on and off for much of the afternoon and as the

Brewers built a 6-2 lead, I thought to myself in a slightly maudlin fashion, I hope the Cubs and Braves play as poorly and as generously against the Mets over the next week as they have against the Brewers and Phillies.
After Brewers closer Salomon Torres recorded the second out of the bottom of the ninth inning by inducing Derrek Lee to fly out to right fielder Corey Hart, I changed the channel to the YES Network to watch Mike Francesa of Mike'd Up/Francesa on the FAN (formerly Mike and the Mad Dog) interviewing Yankees manager Joe Girardi; Francesa planned to ask Girardi about the

rumblings in Yankeeland that several veteran players were unhappy with Girardi's leadership. I momentarily flipped back to channel 433 to see if the game was over and there was the MLB Extra Innings insignia with the words "Good Night" underneath. Figuring the game was over and the

Brewers had won, I turned back to YES and I half-attentively watched the TV simulcast as I listened to the interview and glanced at the screen in time to see the score-crawl run across the bottom and saw Brewers 6-Cubs 6 (Bot. 9). Puzzled, I quickly turned the channel back to 433 and realized that the game was actually on 432. Flipping back there, I saw Geovany Soto receiving enthusiastic congratulations in the dugout after his game-tying three-run homer. Shaking my head in disbelief, I watched the rest of the game.
Long story short, after both teams squandered golden opportunities to score (especially

the Brewers who had runners on second and third with no one out against Cubs closer Kerry Wood in the top of the twelfth, only to see Wood wriggle out of the jam with two ground balls and a strikeout), the Cubs won the game in the bottom of the twelfth on a game-winning single by Lee. This wasn't just a loss for the Brewers; this was a loss that was a signal for the team to just pack it in and try again next year.
The most unbelievable thing about this isn't the comeback; nor is it that Torres managed to blow a four-run lead with two outs and no one on in the bottom of the ninth inning. The most unbelievable thing is that if the Brewers were trying to blow a game in this fashion, they couldn't do it. If Torres took the ball and started lofting it underhanded in slow-pitch softball style, the odds are that the Cubs hitters would either line the lollipop tosses right at someone or pop it

up. To blow a game this way by giving up four straight hits, the last of which landing in the left-field bleachers is almost unfathomable. And for this reason, the Brewers are just about done with little or no hope to recover from their tailspin ruining what had promised to be a historic season for a long suffering franchise. They have a new manager in Dale Sveum, but are yielding the same results and this game is prime reason to give the team last rites because they're done.

• At least Curt Schilling's earning his $8 million for 2008 with his mouth:

As tiresome as he is, Curt Schilling is still making headlines with his pompous rants. Now he's going off on Manny Ramirez and Manny's power play to get himself out of Boston----ESPN Story. Schilling has a right to his opinion, but as he rips Manny and anoints

himself as defender for the Red Sox clubhouse, one has to wonder whether Manny's presence or Schilling's presence served as a greater distraction on the whole over the years that the two played in Boston. My guess is that despite Manny's tantrums and bizarre behaviors, teammates probably tired more of Schilling's flapping mouth than anything Manny ever did. And for Schilling, protector of

all that is holy and hard core republican only when it suits him, to go on a radio show and engage in this type of rant ably assisted by two players----Brian Daubach and Lou Merloni----who were replacement players during the strike of 1995, epitomizes Schilling's self-important and oblivious hypocrisy more than anything else he's said or done (at least in the last several days...that we know of, anyway).

For Those Who Always Wondered What Joe Torre Managing The Red Sox Would Look Like, Here It Is

• Dodgers 7-Rockies 2:

If, during all those long years of Yankees-Red Sox vitriol, any loyalist for the Red Sox

wondered what their team would look like with Joe Torre sitting in the corner of the dugout, hands resting on the knob of a bat, same demeanor whether things were going well or poorly and coaxing, cajoling, dragging and leading his teams to the playoffs no matter what adversity presented itself be it injury, a rampaging boss, spoiled fan base, illness or tragedy need only look at what's going on with the Dodgers because it's being played out right now.
If, during all those long years of the Red Sox-Yankees battles, any loyalist for the Yankees wondered what their team would look like with a quirky, spacey, aggravating, forgetful hitting savant named Manny Ramirez manning left field and hitting, hitting, hitting his way into

everyone's hearts and making them ignore the defensive lapses, tantrums, demands and bouts of laziness, it's being played out right now with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The calmness that the Dodgers are showing is identical to that which the Yankees showed all those years as Torre guided them through any and all firestorms whether they were baseball or life-related. An eight game losing streak and season-long inconsistency? No reason to panic. Injuries to chunks of the pitching staff? Why worry? Someone else will get the job done, somehow. The Diamondbacks are pulling out all the stops to improve their club by dealing for help in their bullpen and lineup with stunning swiftness? No problem, for all of his bizarreness, Torre will handle Manny as he goes through his "Manny being Manny" act heading toward another big contract after crowbarring his way out of Boston. The infighting with rookies and veterans at odds in the clubhouse that doomed Grady Little and ended the Dodgers playoff hopes in 2007? Torre'll take care of it. The impossible Jeff Kent? Torre will placate him as well as he can.
Anything else? Torre, Torre, Torre. Four championship rings, controls the clubhouse, leads his men. Rookies? Veterans? In-season acquisitions? Lack of hitting? Lack of pitching? Injuries? Press? Naysayers? Mocking from the other coast and staggering Yankees at his

unappreciated skills? It doesn't matter. The one thing that's being proven this year is that despite his strategic ordinariness, Joe Torre handles his team and guides them through anything with the one thing that any manager has to have to be successful----he doesn't panic. Referred to as "The Godfather", Torre is the man behind the desk using his brain, experience and reputation to keep everyone in line and as a result, the Dodgers are heading for the playoffs and didn't panic when the world crumbled around them.
If anyone has ever wondered (publicly or privately) what would have happened had Torre been running the Red Sox for the years 1998-2003 instead of Jimy Williams and Grady Little, the result is on display right now in 2008 with the Dodgers. It adds to the irony that not only is Manny on his team, but so are Nomar Garciaparra and Derek Lowe. Anyone who questions the import of a manager need only look at how the Dodgers are finishing the season with the same placid, stoic personality of their manager. That's why the Dodgers are winning and a major reason why the Yankees aren't.

• Diamondbacks 3-Reds 2:

As important as this game was; as much as Brandon Lyon has been struggling as the Diamondbacks closer lately; and with the knowledge that the Dodgers were winning and another Diamondbacks loss would probably have sealed their fate, why was Brandon Webb,

their supposed horse and Cy Young Award winner yanked after throwing only 96 pitches and eight shutout innings?
This isn't being written because Lyon almost blew the game and the Diamondbacks season; nor is it being written to second-guess how decisions are being made in the Diamondbacks dugout; but after watching how the aforementioned Torre has handled his club through their various crises and how Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin has been relying on that absurd "book" that's become so prevalent, why would he remove his ace and put such an important game in the hands of that shaky bullpen and run the risk of ending his team's season? If Webb had thrown 115 pitches, okay, but he'd thrown 96; are you telling me that he couldn't throw twenty more pitches to close the game out himself? Is he or is he not the team's best pitcher and guy who's supposed to carry them in times of distress?
Now Melvin is implying that he's considering making a change at closer and replacing Lyon with (I would assume) Chad Qualls. Melvin's quote was that he felt he'd given Lyon "enough rope"; once a manager starts thinking he has to have a certain amount of "rope" before going to his closer, then it's time to get a new closer. And Lyon shouldn't even have been in that situation to begin with because Webb should at least have started the inning and gotten yanked if and only if he got into serious trouble. Webb should've been the closer last night and the near disaster could've been averted completely.

• The promotional ads for the Colorado Rockies:

From when I got the InDemand package, I've seen a lot of promotional ads for various teams, but the most creative and entertaining belong to the Colorado Rockies. Last night was

a funny parody of The Godfather with Todd Helton playing "The Toddfather"; and there was Troy Tulowitzki having his name chanted everywhere he went as it interrupted people from doing their jobs as Tulowitzki had a satisfied and bemused look on his face. The players are actually good actors and they're great spots.

Who Would've Thought In March...

• Who would've thought that by August 21, these things would've happened:
  

That the Tampa Bay Rays would be fighting for the best record in baseball and be ten games ahead of the Yankees.
That Manny Ramirez would finally aggravate the Red Sox to the point where they decided to get him out of town once and for all and pay his salary to leave.

That the Yankees would undergo such a rough transition with a

new manager in Joe Girardi (who still appears to have a lot to learn) and that their young starters would be injured and terrible, respectively. (Actually, someone called the Ian Kennedy disaster----meeeeeeeeee!!!)
That the Orioles, having cleared out their veterans and started a legit rebuilding project, would be flirting with .500 and playing very respectably.
That the Minnesota Twins, sans Johan Santana and Torii Hunter and with a patchwork lineup, would be fighting for first place.
That the Detroit Tigers would become the latest version of The Worst Team Money Could Buy?
That after coming within one win of the World Series, the Cleveland Indians would stumble

badly enough to clear out most of their veterans and start another rebuilding project.
That Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley would post such massive offensive numbers and that Ian Kinsler would even get himself into the

conversation for MVP.
That the Seattle Mariners would see everything go wrong far beyond a worst case scenario; Stephen King couldn't come up with a series of nightmares as disastrous as the Mariners 2008 season.
That Mike Pelfrey of the Mets would develop this quickly to become a top young starter in the National League and win a probable 15-16 games.
That Ryan Howard would start morphing into a kind, gentle version of Dave Kingman and that his numbers would tumble so rapidly; and that reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins's play wouldn't live up to his mouth.

That the historically durable Tom Glavine and John Smoltz would both be lost for the season; the Braves pitching staff so top-to-bottom rotten; and that they'd be sellers instead of buyers at mid-season starting a rebuilding project.
That the Marlins would be in contention spending less money on their entire roster than Alex Rodriguez makes all season.
That the Brewers would go for broke so completely by dealing for C.C. Sabathia, who they have no chance of keeping after the season.
That even Tony La Russa, baseball's resident genius, would be able to keep the Cardinals patchwork and bargain basement roster (aside from Albert Pujols) in contention this long, especially without a closer.

That Ken Griffey Jr would allow the Reds to trade him.
That the Diamondbacks, with their excellent on-paper roster; dual-headed Cy Young Award contenders in Brandon Webb and Dan Haren; a resurgent Randy Johnson; and solid mid-season acquisitions, would be so relentlessly and unexplainably inconsistent.
That the Dodgers would acquire two future Hall of Famers for almost nothing within three weeks of each other in Manny Ramirez and Greg Maddux.
That the Padres would be so poisonously bad and that their arrogance and cheapness would permeate their organization to become almost hopeless.

These surprises----among many, many more----prove that no matter how one makes their

predictions, based on numbers or observation, there's no way to know what's going to happen in a season; no way to judge what's going to work and what isn't. The only thing to do is to watch and learn and try not to make the same mistakes again. If anything, this season is a prime indicator of why they play the games on the field rather than in a room with a bunch of nerds alternating between their stats and World of Warcraft.

Yankees Demote Kennedy And Other Stories

• Yankees send Ian Kennedy back to the minors:

The New York Times is reporting that the Yankees have shipped Ian Kennedy back to Triple A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre with the instructions to throw his breaking pitches regardless

of the score and game situation----Article. Kennedy also backtracked on his laissez-faire comments about his heinous big league performances after the negative reaction in the clubhouse and media. Kennedy will learn about dealing with the media because that was a case in which he said something stupid, which isn't unexpected in a 23-year-old who's experiencing on-field adversity for the first time; but the important question is: will he learn how to pitch effectively in the big leagues?
After all the hype accompanying the three young Yankee pitchers----Kennedy, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain----it was at best unrealistic and at worst baseball malpractice to think that they were going to walk all over big league hitters the way they dominated in the minors. Now Kennedy has been the one to take the most brutal beating and is paying the price on and off the field. He's been told that he's going to be back in September, which may or may not be true; but unless the Yankees fall completely out of contention, Kennedy's return doesn't mean he's going to be participating in any meaningful games unless there's an emergency.
This season is a write-off for Kennedy and Hughes and shouldn't be seen as an indictment

of their futures as big leaguers; they could still become useful if not the reincarnation of the 1990s Braves or other great rotations. Chamberlain has shown the promise to be a future Cy Young Award winner. The Yankees problem now is that, among many other things, they didn't expect the injury to Chien-Ming Wang to rob them of his 19 wins; they didn't expect to have to deal with a Rays team that matured so quickly, rode a hot start to prominence, and also overcame their seven game losing streak going into the All Star break to recover beautifully. Instead of only having to worry about the Red Sox in the AL East, they're scrambling for a Wild Card berth that looks increasingly like it's not going to be available. The Yankees may be discovering, as the Braves did when their string of playoff appearances ended, that it's not as easy as it looked all those years; that barrelling down the road while making drastic changes isn't always a smooth and easy process and things don't always mystically end with the Yankees in the playoffs.
Everything ends. The dynasty from the late-90s ended; the George Steinbrenner-era is ending; the Joe Torre-era ended; and the automatic ticket into the playoffs may be on life-support now. They're still in position to make another run, but they're running out of time and with the way their direct contenders are playing, the Yankees may have run out of tricks and the last post-season at Yankee Stadium and intentions of a historic finale may not exist at all.

• White Sox 6-Red Sox 5:

The Red Sox haven't been playing all that great either and despite all the numbers that are being quoted as to how Jason Bay's stats can reasonably replicate Manny Ramirez's so that

Manny's departure won't be such a big loss; and that Bay will be a better outfielder; and that Bay will run out ground balls; the Red Sox are going to feel the loss of Manny Ramirez as the season winds down. I completely understand the decision to get rid of him at all costs, but it's not going to be a simple matter of inserting a different piece into Manny's slot and ending up with another championship.
With the way the Yankees are scrounging for starting pitching, even if the Red Sox don't catch the Rays, they have enough pitching in the rotation and bullpen; and should score enough runs to hold off the Yankees and whichever of the two teams----the Twins or White Sox----fades out in the end in the AL Central. If things hold as they are and the Red Sox have to play the Angels, that's when they're going to truly feel the effects of not having a happy or unhappy Manny in their lineup.

• Padres 16-Rockies 7:

It's one thing to extol Livan Hernandez's value as an innings-eater who'll stay out on the

mound for 145 pitches or more, but there's no possible way to defend yesterday's performance in his first start as a member of the Rockies. The Padres can't hit and they gave Hernandez a brutal beating with nine runs (including two homers) in 2 2/3 innings. The Rockies got Hernandez for nothing and were desperate for starting pitching; and I've been trumpeting Hernandez as a pitcher who could provide something to someone; but if yesterday's an example of what he has to offer, then there's no point in putting him out there.

• Scott Rolen to the disabled list:

Who (other than J.P. Ricciardi) didn't see this coming? A couple of weeks ago, I compared

Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus based on their contracts and production----Blog 7/31/2008. Is it still possible that the work of Ricciardi in the past seven years is being lost on the Blue Jays ownership and that he's going to be back? He should've been fired three months ago so the new GM could get a head start on next season, but he's still there.

Earning Their $100+ Million----Which Players Have, Haven't And Won't?

The whole Manny Ramirez saga has put the issue of salary and a player's overall worth into serious debate. Manny and his agent Scott Boras staged this power play to force the hand of

the Red Sox into either extending his contract or trading him; it's clear that Manny wanted no part of the two option years held by the Red Sox when he and Boras think that another $100 million is in the offing as a free agent after the season.
I went into which teams would have the money and the incentive to give Mark Teixeira (also represented by Boras) the $200+ million he's going to want as he enters free agency----Braves Should've Taken The Diamondbacks Deal For Teixeira, 7/30/08----but Teixeira is 28-years-old, is a Gold Glove first baseman and doesn't have the reputation for tantrums affecting his play like a Manny Ramirez does. Teixeira's going to get his money; it may not be the $230 million being suggested, but he's likely to get a deal that, in total with incentives and options, surpasses $200 million from someone and he'll probably perform well enought to justify it; but what about the other $100 million players in baseball? How many have, haven't or won't justify the money? Let's take a look:

Money Well Spent:

• Alex Rodriguez

You can say what you want about ARod as a person or as a post-season performer, but

the guy puts the numbers up in the regular season year-after-year and he'll go down as one of the best, if not the best, baseball player in history. He's been greedy for money, but he's gotten it, so it can't be said that he overestimated his monetary value. Supposedly pulled an end-around on Boras to return to the Yankees after opting out of his contract, but conspiracy theorists wouldn't be out of line to believe that the whole thing was part of a master plan the duo cooked up to get ARod a raise while tidying up his image----and it's worked to a point because ARod got his raise, stayed with the Yankees, and looked like he was acting as his own man rather than Boras's stooge.

• Derek Jeter

Jeter's mostly been known for intangibles, leadership and winning, but that diminishes the fact that he's been a great player. Because he's so well-respected and beloved for his on and

off-field exploits (accrued without ever embarrassing himself or the organization, unlike ARod), it's easy to forget what a career he's put together. The ten-year, $118 million contract he signed in 2001 has become a bargain.
The Yankees are going to have a dicey situation on their hands as Jeter's free agency begins to beckon in 2011. If Brian Cashman's still the GM, it's likely he'll want to keep Jeter's salary at age 37 within reason and he'll be emboldened because it looks like he was right about holding a hard line with Jorge Posada. Jeter isn't greedy, but he is proud and stubborn; while he probably realizes that he's not the player ARod is on the field, he'll want to be compensated fairly for his four rings and those intangibles even if his performance declines as he ages. The Yankees won't be able to stomach allowing Jeter to leave and finish his career in another uniform, but he would leave the Yankees if he had to. If Joe Torre is still managing the Dodgers, they're a landing spot and so is his hometown Detroit Tigers. The Steinbrenners won't let Jeter leave, so he's going to get paid at his advanced age as some sort of severance for his career even if it's unwarranted by recent performance; it's only fair.

• Manny Ramirez

The lovable character exemplified by the bizarre behaviors that resulted in his quirks being

justified as "Manny being Manny" has been transformed into a greedy, self-important, team-sabotaging jerk by his latest tantrum which resulted in the Red Sox dumping him and two prospects, plus a load of cash for Jason Bay. No matter what the latest image of Manny portrays, he justified every penny of that contract by helping the Red Sox win two championships and functioning as a bodyguard batting behind David Ortiz which helped create the legendary Big Papi. Despite all of his distractions, lazy fielding and jogging to first base----the incident against the Angels wasn't something new; he just jogged slower than usual----the numbers went up every single year and as much as the Red Sox want to say "good riddance", their front office is smart enough to know they're not going to replace his bat easily or cheaply.

• Miguel Cabrera

He'll be a DH by the time Gary Sheffield's contract expires (or possibly before); he's lazy and lets himself get out of shape if he's disenchanted by team performance, but despite adjusting to several new positions and a new and struggling team, he's still having a very solid year at the plate and will put up good numbers by season's end. Still only 25, the Tigers are going to get great production from him for the next eight years and by then, his $20+ million salary may seem reasonable. By next year, I'd expect a return to the MVP-quality Cabrera he was with the Marlins.

• Johan Santana

The Mets needed to get him to appease the fan base after the collapse of 2007 and he's been very good this year despite ill-informed criticism from the likes of Christopher "Mad Dog/Biggest Idiot In the World" Russo that Santana is "overrated". It sometimes takes a new player a year to get used to New York and Santana is still only 29 and keeps himself in great shape. This is in many ways a transition year for the Mets and once Santana's comfortable, he's going to dominate in years to come.

• Carlos Beltran

An example of a player who took a year to get comfortable in New York and began putting up the numbers. He gets ripped for what he isn't and doesn't get credit for what he is. Beltran's very reserved and streaky, but by season's end the numbers are on the board and he gets more big hits than people realize because they focus on his missteps in the clutch. He's still only 31, so he should perform through the length of the contract.

• Jason Giambi

Amid all the admissions and references to steroids and growth hormone, Giambi is still the biggest star to admit to using PEDs and he's played well after handling the roasting he got for telling the truth. I'd be curious to see how many reporters who advocated the equiavalent of a lynching for the beefy first baseman have apologized to him after his comeback. He's put up what the Yankees expected when they signed him despite the controversy and his injuries. Giambi will always be an on base machine and is well-liked in his clubhouse and throughout baseball.

• Carlos Lee

The gregarious El Caballo hits his 35 homers, drives in his 100 runs and is well-liked as a person, but he also gets on base; hits .300; doesn't strike out; is a better outfielder than he's given credit for; and plays hard. He won't get the credit he deserves until he's on a playoff team, but is a winning player.

• Albert Pujols

Forever an example of a player comfortable in his surroundings and willing to sacrifice $100

million to stay there. Pujols signed a seven-year, $100 million contract with a $16 million team option in 2011 to stay with the Cardinals. Pujols would get more money than Teixeira would as a free agent and could easily demand that the Cardinals renegotiate or force a trade. He'll deservedly be known as the anti-Manny/ARod to the point of shortchanging himself of a lot of money that he deserves.

Money Poorly Spent:

• Mike Hampton

The only positive thing about this stupid contract for the Rockies and GM Dan O'Dowd was

that he was able to get rid of it. $121 million for the pitcher who was likely the last big ticket free agent pitcher who decides to sign in Colorado, humidor or not. Hampton pitched well in the first half of his first season with the Rockies, but was subsequently terrible over the last year and a half with the team. Pitched reasonably well with the Braves in 2003 and 2004; missed most of the last three years with injuries. A contractual disaster in judgment and practice for everyone but Mike Hampton.

• Todd Helton

People get really angry when I have the audacity to mention the possibility that Todd Helton's massive numbers were aided not only by the air in Colorado, but by PEDs. I've said it numerous times, if a nice and socially concerned guy does something that pretty much everyone else is doing to keep his job and feed his family, then that doesn't make him a bad person a la Barry Bonds, who'd be a jerk if he'd never allegedly* touched steroids or HGH. I've never heard Helton's name metioned in any of the reports or accusations, but his power numbers have fallen off the cliff since 2004. The length of the contract makes it seem worse than it is; Helton's only making $16.6 million through 2010 and $19 million in 2011 when he'll be 38 and might not even be an everyday player anymore. The Rockies might be able to unload him for another team's bad contract before then.

• Ken Griffey Jr

Griffey's accomplishments will be appreciated more and more as the years pass and it's

recognized that he played clean in a dirty era, but he should never have left Seattle and if he did want to leave Seattle so badly, he should've accepted the deal to go the Mets after the 1999 season. He was injury-prone and dour in Cincinnati, expecting a hero's welcome and receiving lukewarm support for a hometown product. Griffey took short money to go to the Reds, but all involved would've been better off, financially and on the field, if he'd played elsewhere.

• Kevin Brown

Brown actually pitched very well in his three fully healthy seasons after signing with the Dodgers. He logged 252 innings in his first season and won 18 games in 1999 and 230 innings with 13 wins in 2000 while pitching well enough to win over 20 both years; he could also have won 20 in 2003 at age 38. This contract could possibly have worked out had Brown stayed healthy, but his stressful motion and back problems hindered him. Looking back, $105 million over seven years wouldn't have been an outrageous amount of money if Brown had stayed healthy and gotten more support; the Dodgers might've gotten four 20-win years out of him and it would've been seen as a smart signing. Brown's personality, which was prickly, was also a factor for critics of the deal. I don't think Brown was necessarily a bad guy, he was just intense and didn't like the press which gave them reason to rip the contract and the person.

Likely To Be Money Poorly Spent:

• Alfonso Soriano

Soriano is a bad, indifferent outfielder who keeps getting hurt. He insists on batting leadoff when he should move down in the lineup to take advantage of his power and is going to be making $18 million annually from 2011-2015 when he'll be between the ages of 35 and 39.

• Barry Zito

Zito's pitched better lately and his velocity has crept back up to the mid-and sometimes

high 80s, but the Giants are going to have to beef up their offense and hope that Zito has a career renaissance and return to his Cy Young Award winning form from 2002. It's possible, though unlikely, that Zito could provide a couple of 15 win years and make the contract easier to swallow if he learns to pitch with diminished stuff and is healthy.

• Vernon Wells

A disaster in the making and another example of Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi's ineptitude. Wells received a $25 million signing bonus with his $126 million, seven-year extension in 2006 to forego free agency; the contract also has a full no-trade clause. He'll only receive $10 million in 2009, but $21 million in 2010; $23 million in 2011 with----big surprise----the

Ricciardi-specialty, an opt-out of the contract after that season. Unless he becomes Willie Mays, Wells isn't going to opt-out of the rest of the contract, which will pay him $21 million annually in 2012,13 and 14.
This would be palatable if Wells was a $126 million player, but there are $100 million players (Pujols, ARod, Cabrera) and there are players making $100 million----there's a difference. And he's been injury-prone and just plain terrible since signing the contract; Wells dropped from 32 homers in 2006, to 16 in 2007 and 9 in an injury-plagued 2008. Extra moving boxes to be donated for the departure of J.P. Ricciardi should be addressed to:

Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Club
1 Blue Jays Way,
Suite 3200, Rogers Centre,
Toronto, ON M5V 1J1

My Pre-Season Manny Prediction Eerie In It's Prescience

I forget a major chunk of the things I write (as well as the things I say; do; hear; watch;

etc; but that's a whole other story); but I took a look at my book because I vaguely remembered writing something about Manny Ramirez possibly being traded if he didn't get a contract extension and here's the quote:

Manny Ramirez had an off year with only 20 homers and 88 RBI. He's becoming a liability defensively with his mental and physical lapses, but when he wants to play, he's still one of the top five hitters in baseball. Manny's contract is up at the end of 2008 and he'll undoubtedly be complaining about the Red Sox not signing him to an extension. He'll either let that affect his play and force the Red Sox to explore mid-season trade options, or he'll have a massive offensive year. (The Prince of New York's 2008 Baseball Guide, page 9.)

Now, there's been a few things in the book that I got wrong, but I nailed the Manny-mess like a batting practice fastball simply because it was only a matter of "Manny being Manny" and going overboard in his dissatisfaction with not getting his way to become too much of a problem for the Red Sox to put up with for the season's duration.

I'm Starting To Believe That Manny's Just Not All That Bright

No matter what happens with Manny Ramirez over the next half-hour and whether he's traded wherever or stays in Boston, he's in for a rude awakening at the end of this season if he thinks his tantrums are going to help his cause in seeking a long-term contract. I've been

on the side of "Manny being Manny" as more of a canned persona than an actual implication of a lack of intelligence on the part of Manny Ramirez, but now I've been swayed to believe that Manny just isn't that bright; that he truly doesn't understand that he's costing himself money with these petulant sit-in strikes by claiming to be injured.
If he were 28, then he'd likely still find a team willing to dole out the cash and years no matter how boorishly he behaved; but he's not 28; he's about to turn 37 and his numbers are going to decline in a different ballpark with a different team and different lineup. In case anyone hadn't noticed, the days of players maintaining or increasing their production as they reach their late-30s are over and Manny's no exception to that reality.
There have been times when I've said that Manny's just a space cadet who doesn't realize the ramifications of asking to be traded (those ramifications being that the Red Sox might actually take him seriously and send him somewhere else); there have also been times that I've asserted that Manny's a bit more savvy than people give him credit for and that these incidents are part of a master plan to take financial advantage of his image as a hitting savant and life simpleton; but I'm convinced now that Manny just isn't that bright and that he may or may not get his latest wish to be sent away from Boston, but doesn't realize that his objective of getting another $100 million contract has quite likely been damaged beyond all repair; that if he'd behaved himself and had an MVP-quality final three months with the Red Sox, some

team would be sufficiently convinced that he's worth that $100 million; but now that's gone. Someone will sign him whether he plays his last three months with the Red Sox or someone else, but he's hurt his case for another big contract with his on-field self immolation of "sticking it" to the Red Sox by not hustling and begging out of games with questionable injuries. He stuck it to the Red Sox, but didn't realize that the weapon was dual edged and while sticking it to the Red Sox, he also inadvertently stuck it to Manny Ramirez as well.

Ivan Rodriguez For Kyle Farnsworth; The Manny Rumors

• Brian Cashman pulls another deal out of nowhere in getting Ivan Rodriguez:

This reminds me of the David Justice trade that Yankees GM Brian Cashman pulled off with

the Indians in 2000 in which it just struck like lightning from a clear blue sky. In acquiring Ivan Rodriguez from the Tigers for Kyle Farnsworth, Cashman fills the empty lineup spot that had been Jose Molina and dumps Kyle Farnsworth before he reverts back into what he really is. Getting Rodriguez is a far cry from the laughable offers that Cashman received for Farnsworth over the past year. Most teams wanted the Yankees to just give Farnsworth to them and pay his salary; but Cashman replenished the pitcher's value to a certain point and made an advantageous deal for both sides.
Even with the way he's pitched since replacing Joba Chamberlain as the eighth inning man, Farnsworth has always been a pitcher who is going to give up the big homer in a big game; it's not a matter of if, but of when; to get rid of him now when the Yankees have viable replacements for him----Damaso Marte pitches well enough to righties that he can be used as

a set-up man; Jose Veras deserves a chance; and Chamberlain could conceivably be moved back into the role for the playoffs----and to get a veteran catcher was a smart move and they didn't even have to dip into the system to get it done.
Rodriguez's power has "mysteriously" deserted him in recent years (although I don't think, given all the factors of his vastly diminished size and power and the timing of the decline, that it's all that much of a mystery), but he's still hitting .295; has extensive post-season success and experience; is a well-liked leader in the clubhouse; plays good defense and calls a good game for his pitchers. He's a free agent at the end of the year and I wouldn't discount the possibility of the Yankees bringing him back to split time with Jorge Posada at catcher and first base; no one knows what Posada's situation is going to be when he gets back and having a backup who can provide both offense and defense isn't a bad idea.
The Tigers and Braves are two of Farnsworth's former employers who liked him enough to want to bring him back and I don't think that this is a short-term idea for the Tigers either; my

guess is that they'll try and keep Farnsworth. Their bullpen is in tatters; Todd Jones is unreliable; Joel Zumaya is always one false step from another DL stint and is a prime candidate for a fast flameout. Farnsworth will at least add another body----biceps and all----out there to get a few outs. They've been using Brandon Inge behind the plate and must feel confident enough to put him back there regularly in order to get his, Gary Sheffield's and Marcus Thames's bats into the lineup every day. The Tigers are only one hot streak away from jumping into first place in the AL Central, so this made sense on all levels for both teams.

• Manny Ramirez headed for Florida?

I don't believe that these deals are done until they're done, but the Red Sox seem determined to get Manny Ramirez out of town and it's no shock that the Marlins have jumped

into the fray; given their history of going for it and winning when they think they have a shot, no playoff team should want to see the Marlins in October. If I were the Red Sox though, I would be very reticent to slot Jason Bay into Manny's spot in left field as would occur if the proposed three-team deal with the Pirates and Marlins comes through. Bay looks to me like the type of player who would be swallowed up by the Boston pressure; he does fine when he's with a team like the Pirates who have no chance of contending, but the spotlight in Boston combined with replacing Manny Ramirez? It's a big risk. The other names----Jeremy Hermida and Josh Willingham----would be better options in a straight-up deal and I'd take Willingham over the others. Other teams may jump in before the deadline hits, so these stories are very premature and Manny may end up just staying in Boston for the rest of the season.

• And still another reason why J.P. Ricciardi should be fired:

No one who's been watching Scott Rolen over the past few years can possibly be surprised by this from the Associated Press:

Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Scott Rolen plans to skip some games and cut

back on his batting practice while undergoing an "extensive" rehab program for his surgically repaired left shoulder. "I've been having some shoulder trouble, some problems with it," Rolen said. "Not strength, not flexibility, not surgery. Nothing like that. Mechanically it's not functioning right. The therapist looked at it, the doctor looked at it. I talked to [manager Cito Gaston and general manager J.P. Ricciardi] and we're going to try to get some extra days off. I'll keep playing, keep going out there and doing what I can do, back off in the cage a little bit."

Rolen's an admirable guy; he's stubborn, proud and plays hard whenever he can get out on the field; but that's the problem----he's never able to get out on the field and his production is at a point where he shouldn't even be a starter anymore whether he's hurt or not. In looking at the numbers of the guy the Blue Jays traded to the Cardinals to get him, Troy Glaus, and there's no comparison on the field:

Rolen: Games-82; At Bats-295; Runs-36; Hits-75; Doubles-21; Triples-2; Home Runs: 6; RBI-31; Walks-35; Strikeouts-52; Average-.254; OBP-.349; Slugging-.400; OPS+-101.

Glaus: Games-107; At Bats-384; Runs-51; Hits-105; Doubles-27; Triples-1; Home Runs-18; RBI-71; Walks-60; Strikeouts-72; Batting Average-.273; OBP-.374; Slugging-.490; OPS+-127.

I understand that Rolen's been hurt, but that's part of the reason that the Blue Jays should've steered clear of him. The move was a huge mistake before even getting to the contract status of the players. Rolen has two more years on his deal at $11.8 million per year; Glaus has an $11.25 million player option for next year that was exercised as part of the trade

from Toronto to St. Louis. This is yet a third example of the Blue Jays and J.P. Ricciardi putting an absurd contract option out of the hands of upper management and into the hands of the player. (The other two were Frank Thomas and A.J. Burnett.)
If Glaus had stayed in Toronto and had the year he's having for the Cardinals, he would've declined the option and gone into free agency, but given what they've gotten from Rolen, I'm sure the Blue Jays would take that deal right now. Worst case scenario, they could've kept Glaus and saved the money they'll be paying Rolen over the next two years; and Rolen's going to be 34; does anyone think that he's going to have a career renaissance at this point? That he's going to be healthy? And I think we're all beginning to realize that the "rest and rehab" program for injured players rarely, if ever, works. Jorge Posada is the latest example of a player who took that route and wound up wasting three months trying to play with an injury that needed surgery and delayed his return time because he tried to avoid what needed to be done. Rolen's career is on the decline due to injury, but the Blue Jays are going

to be paying him for two more years at big money because they made a bad judgment call and took on another bad contract, which is turning into a hallmark of Ricciardi's tenure as GM.
Because of these contracts, they're going to lose Burnett after the season, but can't trade him because of the contract. They cut Frank Thomas because of the contract. And they're stuck with Rolen because of the contract. I'm still waiting for an answer as to how Ricciardi's still there, but no one's responding because they can't come up with one---even one that's total crud.

Predictions (Guesses) As To Who Will And Won't Get Traded (And Where) By July 31st

Here are my guesses as to who gets traded where and who doesn't get traded at all:
Will Be Traded:

• Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Cairo, Seattle Mariners to New York Yankees:

I have to believe that cooler heads will prevail, the Mariners will lower their demands just to get out from under Washburn's $9.375 million contract for 2009 and send him to the Yankees

for whatever the Yankees want to give up. The question with Washburn is whether his performance since early June is to be believed or if the mediocre-to-bad pitcher he's been since joining the Mariners is the reality; my guess is that it's the former and the Yankees would be hoping to get some use out of him to win right now. They'd probably be better off just keeping what they have and seeing what comes available during August as more teams fall out of contention and look to shed salary.
There was talk that the Mariners would send both Washburn and Jose Vidro to the Yankees for Kei Igawa, but that was just to match up salaries. I think the Yankees would like to have Cairo back given his history with them and the success the Yankees have had with veteran utilitymen (Luis Sojo, Cairo) who provide surprisingly clutch hits in the post-season.

• Arthur Rhodes, Seattle Mariners to New York Mets or Chicago Cubs:

I think the Mets are still thinking about how Rhodes came into the game against them as an emergency closer on June 23rd and blew away both Carlos Delgado and Damion Easley as the tying runs at the plate. I also think that the Mets are concerned about Pedro Feliciano's struggles this season and Rhodes is a playoff-tested veteran.
Cubs manager Lou Piniella relied heavily on Rhodes while managing the Mariners and would presumably love to have him again for similar reasons as the Mets would want him.

• Raul Ibanez and Miguel Batista, Seattle Mariners to Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ibanez is a lefty bat who hits for power and Batista has already had two stints with the Diamondbacks, and is known and well-liked in Arizona. The Diamondbacks have the organizational depth to make a bigger splash and have been spoken of as landing spots for the likes of Mark Teixeira, but Ibanez should become cheaper as the deadline gets closer. I would think that the Mariners would kick in some money just to get Batista out of town, especially if they unload Washburn first.

• Kevin Millar, Baltimore Orioles to Florida Marlins:
  

Millar is a gregarious veteran who's won before and was a popular member of the Marlins earlier in his career. He's a dangerous righty bat who can play first base and the outfield and wouldn't cost much in terms of players or money and is a free agent at season's end.

• Chad Bradford, Baltimore Orioles to St. Louis Cardinals:

The Cardinals desperately need some bullpen help and Orioles president Andy MacPhail probably wouldn't mind hurting his former employers the Cubs by sending the Cardinals an unsung veteran reliever with post-season experience. Bradford's signed through next season at $3.5 million. The Cardinals also need to do something to placate an increasingly frustrated manager Tony La Russa; he's not going to stick around forever with a team that doesn't want to spend any money to improve at mid-season when he's doing what is perhaps the best managing job in his long and storied career.

• David Eckstein, Toronto Blue Jays to Los Angeles Dodgers:
  

The Dodgers have been scouring the big leagues for a shortstop to replace the injured Rafael Furcal. They've been focusing on Jack Wilson from the Pirates and checked in on the likes of Edgar Renteria, but they'd be better off with a fiery, post-season hero like David Eckstein who wouldn't cost that much, but would be a huge pickup for the stretch run.

• Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds to Los Angeles Angels:

The Angels are saying that they're likely to stand pat, but they're going to need another bat to get past the likes of the Red Sox in the playoffs and Dunn wouldn't cost much in players, can play first base, the outfield or DH and would slide neatly into the Angels lineup while being comfortable with the laid back atmosphere of Los Angeles.

Won't Be Traded:

• Brian Fuentes and Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies:
  

There will be many teams chasing Fuentes more than Holliday because he'd be a cheaper

acquisition, but the Rockies fancy themselves as contenders even though they're eleven games under .500. Considering their comeback last season; that they're only six games out of first place and should be getting Jeff Francis back soon, they have an argument to hold their fire and see what happens and take the draft picks they'll get after the season when Fuentes leaves via free agency. The only way they trade Holliday is relating to the Red Sox/Manny Ramirez situation and it's a complicated deal to make on short notice.

• Mark Teixeira, Atlanta Braves:
  

There won't be any way to get equal value for Teixeira; the Braves won't even be able to make up for what they traded to the Rangers last year to get Teixeira. They're not that far out of contention to make it worthwhile to trade him even though the state of their pitching staff and rampant injuries doesn't bode well for a climb back into contention. They might as well just hang onto him and take the draft picks after the season.

• Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox:

As I said a couple of days ago, the only way this would happen is if a complicated three-team trade between the Red Sox, Phillies or Mets and Rockies will send Holliday to Boston. Other than that, they'll sit tight with Manny, eat his crud and hope that he helps them win another title. It's not like these Manny-blowups weren't predictable before the season started and things moved along without him getting an extension or having his contract options exercised. If the unlikely happens and the suggested three-team trade comes to pass, I would expect Fuentes to end up in Boston as well.

• George Sherrill, Baltimore Orioles:

Unless they're bowled over by a desperate team, the Orioles have no earthly reason to trade Sherrill now. He's not going to be a free agent until after 2012 and if they decide to trade him, they can probably get as much, if not more after the season than they will right now.

• Vicente Padilla, Texas Rangers:

The big problem with Padilla is that two of the teams that could really use him already had

him in the Diamondbacks and Phillies and probably aren't going to want to go down that road again. He's been very good this year and only has one more year on his contract with a 2010 option, so he's an attractive option for teams desperate for starting pitching. The Cardinals would be a good landing spot but I think he'll end up staying in Texas at least until the winter.

Other teams that should be clearing out the house like the Nationals, Astros and the Padres have either made some strange maneuvers (Jon Rauch from the Nats to the Diamondbacks for one minor league infielder; Randy Wolf to the Astros for unfathomable reasons) or are just content to hang onto what they have and go down their current dead-end road (the Padres).
The trading deadline in recent years has either been heavy on rumors and light on action or vice versa; there are many teams in playoff contention this year, but that doesn't mean any deals of consequence are going to happen even if they should for the benefit of all involved.