Predictions (Guesses) As To Who Will And Won't Get Traded (And Where) By July 31st

Here are my guesses as to who gets traded where and who doesn't get traded at all:
Will Be Traded:

• Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Cairo, Seattle Mariners to New York Yankees:

I have to believe that cooler heads will prevail, the Mariners will lower their demands just to get out from under Washburn's $9.375 million contract for 2009 and send him to the Yankees

for whatever the Yankees want to give up. The question with Washburn is whether his performance since early June is to be believed or if the mediocre-to-bad pitcher he's been since joining the Mariners is the reality; my guess is that it's the former and the Yankees would be hoping to get some use out of him to win right now. They'd probably be better off just keeping what they have and seeing what comes available during August as more teams fall out of contention and look to shed salary.
There was talk that the Mariners would send both Washburn and Jose Vidro to the Yankees for Kei Igawa, but that was just to match up salaries. I think the Yankees would like to have Cairo back given his history with them and the success the Yankees have had with veteran utilitymen (Luis Sojo, Cairo) who provide surprisingly clutch hits in the post-season.

• Arthur Rhodes, Seattle Mariners to New York Mets or Chicago Cubs:

I think the Mets are still thinking about how Rhodes came into the game against them as an emergency closer on June 23rd and blew away both Carlos Delgado and Damion Easley as the tying runs at the plate. I also think that the Mets are concerned about Pedro Feliciano's struggles this season and Rhodes is a playoff-tested veteran.
Cubs manager Lou Piniella relied heavily on Rhodes while managing the Mariners and would presumably love to have him again for similar reasons as the Mets would want him.

• Raul Ibanez and Miguel Batista, Seattle Mariners to Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ibanez is a lefty bat who hits for power and Batista has already had two stints with the Diamondbacks, and is known and well-liked in Arizona. The Diamondbacks have the organizational depth to make a bigger splash and have been spoken of as landing spots for the likes of Mark Teixeira, but Ibanez should become cheaper as the deadline gets closer. I would think that the Mariners would kick in some money just to get Batista out of town, especially if they unload Washburn first.

• Kevin Millar, Baltimore Orioles to Florida Marlins:
  

Millar is a gregarious veteran who's won before and was a popular member of the Marlins earlier in his career. He's a dangerous righty bat who can play first base and the outfield and wouldn't cost much in terms of players or money and is a free agent at season's end.

• Chad Bradford, Baltimore Orioles to St. Louis Cardinals:

The Cardinals desperately need some bullpen help and Orioles president Andy MacPhail probably wouldn't mind hurting his former employers the Cubs by sending the Cardinals an unsung veteran reliever with post-season experience. Bradford's signed through next season at $3.5 million. The Cardinals also need to do something to placate an increasingly frustrated manager Tony La Russa; he's not going to stick around forever with a team that doesn't want to spend any money to improve at mid-season when he's doing what is perhaps the best managing job in his long and storied career.

• David Eckstein, Toronto Blue Jays to Los Angeles Dodgers:
  

The Dodgers have been scouring the big leagues for a shortstop to replace the injured Rafael Furcal. They've been focusing on Jack Wilson from the Pirates and checked in on the likes of Edgar Renteria, but they'd be better off with a fiery, post-season hero like David Eckstein who wouldn't cost that much, but would be a huge pickup for the stretch run.

• Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds to Los Angeles Angels:

The Angels are saying that they're likely to stand pat, but they're going to need another bat to get past the likes of the Red Sox in the playoffs and Dunn wouldn't cost much in players, can play first base, the outfield or DH and would slide neatly into the Angels lineup while being comfortable with the laid back atmosphere of Los Angeles.

Won't Be Traded:

• Brian Fuentes and Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies:
  

There will be many teams chasing Fuentes more than Holliday because he'd be a cheaper

acquisition, but the Rockies fancy themselves as contenders even though they're eleven games under .500. Considering their comeback last season; that they're only six games out of first place and should be getting Jeff Francis back soon, they have an argument to hold their fire and see what happens and take the draft picks they'll get after the season when Fuentes leaves via free agency. The only way they trade Holliday is relating to the Red Sox/Manny Ramirez situation and it's a complicated deal to make on short notice.

• Mark Teixeira, Atlanta Braves:
  

There won't be any way to get equal value for Teixeira; the Braves won't even be able to make up for what they traded to the Rangers last year to get Teixeira. They're not that far out of contention to make it worthwhile to trade him even though the state of their pitching staff and rampant injuries doesn't bode well for a climb back into contention. They might as well just hang onto him and take the draft picks after the season.

• Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox:

As I said a couple of days ago, the only way this would happen is if a complicated three-team trade between the Red Sox, Phillies or Mets and Rockies will send Holliday to Boston. Other than that, they'll sit tight with Manny, eat his crud and hope that he helps them win another title. It's not like these Manny-blowups weren't predictable before the season started and things moved along without him getting an extension or having his contract options exercised. If the unlikely happens and the suggested three-team trade comes to pass, I would expect Fuentes to end up in Boston as well.

• George Sherrill, Baltimore Orioles:

Unless they're bowled over by a desperate team, the Orioles have no earthly reason to trade Sherrill now. He's not going to be a free agent until after 2012 and if they decide to trade him, they can probably get as much, if not more after the season than they will right now.

• Vicente Padilla, Texas Rangers:

The big problem with Padilla is that two of the teams that could really use him already had

him in the Diamondbacks and Phillies and probably aren't going to want to go down that road again. He's been very good this year and only has one more year on his contract with a 2010 option, so he's an attractive option for teams desperate for starting pitching. The Cardinals would be a good landing spot but I think he'll end up staying in Texas at least until the winter.

Other teams that should be clearing out the house like the Nationals, Astros and the Padres have either made some strange maneuvers (Jon Rauch from the Nats to the Diamondbacks for one minor league infielder; Randy Wolf to the Astros for unfathomable reasons) or are just content to hang onto what they have and go down their current dead-end road (the Padres).
The trading deadline in recent years has either been heavy on rumors and light on action or vice versa; there are many teams in playoff contention this year, but that doesn't mean any deals of consequence are going to happen even if they should for the benefit of all involved.

Teams That Should Cut Their Losses And Fold For The Season

With the Joe Blanton to the Phillies trade completed, teams aren't waiting for the July 31st

deadline to strike. Here's my view of teams that should fold up the tent for the season. (This has no bearing on what they will do, but what they should do.)

• San Diego Padres:

I doubt they're going to execute a thorough housecleaning given how arrogant they are and how they still insist that they're a "good" team having a bad year; trust me, they're a bad team with little help on the horizon in the form of prospects. (And their top prospect, Chase Headley, has walked twice in 95 plate appearances going into tonight----a bad sign.) They've already dumped Tony Clark back on the Diamondbacks and they'll probably do a few other things. Randy Wolf is definitely going; maybe Brian Giles and Greg Maddux; other than that, I

think they'll stick to the plan (whatever that means).
There was a story about how Paul DePodesta signed a contract extension to stay in San Diego as team president Sandy Alderson's assistant; Alderson claims that DePodesta "has had opportunities" as a GM for other organizations since joining the Padres, a statement that I consider to be a lie. I'm starting to believe that after the season, Kevin Towers and the Padres will mutually part ways and DePodesta will be installed as the GM. Towers should have other opportunities and has never seemed comfortable working under the heavy-handed Alderson. There will be open jobs in Seattle and Philadelphia and possibly places like Washington or Detroit where Dave Dombrowski may want to relinquish some of the day-to-day responsibilities of the organization to someone else and move upstairs. If I were a Padres fan, this speculation would give me the shakes.

• Seattle Mariners:

This isn't as clear cut as many may think. The Mariners have a chance to turn things around by next year if J.J. Putz is healthy and they get the expected seasons out of Felix Hernandez and Les Miserables, Erik Bedard. Bedard's value is next to nothing now because

of his reputation and injuries, but as free agency begins to beckon, he'll want to put up some numbers to get himself a big contract; trading him now would make no sense. One thing he needs is a Jason Varitek-type to get into his face and the Mariners are at a point where everyone (including the manager and coaching staff) is too worried about their own status to be concerned with threatening Bedard into performing and to stop being such a misery.
Adrian Beltre is going to get traded. Miguel Batista should be in demand for his guts and versatility, but the Mariners have to decide what they want for him. They could probably get better prospects if they pick up part of his salary; or they could take marginal players back and just be happy to get rid of the contract. One name that I would put in play (but the Mariners won't do it) is Ichiro. He's a singles hitter who's running the team and that's a bad combination.

• Cleveland Indians:

I don't know who would want to take Paul Byrd, but if every other option falls through, some team might get desperate enough to take a shot at him and hope a pennant race will get the juices flowing in the religious righty. Casey Blake should bring back a couple of decent prospects; Rafael Betancourt would be a useful reliever who'd be in demand if the Indians put him out there. One name that might go after the deadline is Travis Hafner if he can prove he's healthy; I'm sure the Indians would love to be out from under his contract, but that's highly unlikely (almost impossible). They could probably get something for David Delucci as well.

• Washington Nationals:

They made the mistake of signing Ronnie Belliard and Dmitri Young to contract extensions

last season when they could have maximized their value and taken advantage of their solid comeback seasons by dealing them. Unless GM Jim Bowden is pressured, I don't know if he's going to move them this year either. The Nats have some other useful parts like Willie Harris and Tim Redding; they might be able to come away with a prospect for Paul Lo Duca. There'd be a feeding frenzy if they put Jon Rauch up for auction and it's something to consider seriously.

• San Francisco Giants:

Ray Durham is having a good year at the plate and maybe someone could use him since he can also play the outfield in addition to second base and can run; Randy Winn is making a lot of money next year, but he can run and is a solid all-around player for a team that has no monetary concerns. They'll give away Barry Zito, but no one's taking him.

• Atlanta Braves:

There's been talk that they're considering doing as they did last season and going for it

again by dealing for Matt Holliday. I don't know if the Braves have an

endless supply of prospects to keep trading for these Scott Boras clients (like Mark Teixeira) who are only guaranteed to be Braves for a year and a half, but they should throw the towel in. They have no starting pitching and appear to be waiting for Mike Hampton to show up like the Great Pumpkin. If I were the Braves, I'd see what the market is for Tim Hudson to replenish the system, but they're not going to do that and will either stagger along as they are or do something stupid for Holliday.

• Houston Astros:
  

They're going nowhere and the team appears leaderless. They're not going to do it, but if Roy Oswalt shows he's healthy, he should be moved. The Astros also have some valuable spare parts like Darin Erstad, Ty Wigginton, Mark Loretta and Geoff Blum for whom they could get something. I'd expect them to either sit tight or add a player or two even though they shouldn't.

• Cincinnati Reds:

Adam Dunn is a player that might bring something useful back and he's a free agent at the end of the year. If a team has a solid power base and just needs another basher in their lineup who walks a lot and hits a lot of homers, but isn't great in the clutch, Dunn is a guy to consider. Ken Griffey won't yield much in a trade, but he too should be moved. David Weathers is a gutty reliever who's had post-season success and would warrant a prospect from a contender who needed a veteran in the bullpen.

• Baltimore Orioles:

There was talk that the Orioles might consider adding players instead of dumping them. Ordinarily, I'd say that Andy MacPhail isn't under such illusions of contention, but who knows how much owner Peter Angelos is interfering with the operation. It was enough that Angelos

finally allowed MacPhail to deal Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard, but that was before they hovered around .500 for half the season. The Orioles have Melvin Mora, Kevin Millar and Aubrey Huff (each a great fit for the Mets); Chad Bradford (a useful and successful reliever); Ramon Hernandez and Jay Payton (both of whom I'm sure MacPhail would love to unload). Then they have an intriguing name like Daniel Cabrera who would be a good fit for the Cardinals to slot into their rotation. If I had to guess, I'd say they're going to do little or nothing of consequence and see if they can finish over .500 no matter how much it hinders their progress.

• Toronto Blue Jays:

If they're going to get rid of GM J.P. Ricciardi, they should do it before the trading deadline. They're not contenders; they're injury-prone and they have some useful players other teams would want, but Ricciardi's the type to go down in a blaze of glory, so who knows what he'll

do if he's told to clean house? David Eckstein would be in demand, as would Matt Stairs. I doubt anyone's going to touch Scott Rolen, but they could try to move him; Gregg Zaun might bring back a prospect. One name I'd throw out is B.J. Ryan to get out from under his contract and diminishing stuff. A.J. Burnett is available, but with the opt-out status of his contract (or the big money he'll get if he stays wherever he's sent), it'll be hard to get much for him unless a team gets desperate.

I'll have postings about what the other teams-----those that should raise and those that should hold----in the coming days.