2012 Preview---Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays

2011 Record: 81-81; 4^th place, American League East

2011 Recap:

The Blue Jays are simultaneously developing their young starting pitchers and putting together an offense and bullpen that can compete in an impossible division.

Manager John Farrell showed his inexperience as a rookie by allowing his baserunners to run and attempt to steal bases with reckless abandon.

Jose Bautista had his second straight MVP-quality season. Brett Lawrie emerged as a notable rookie and possible future star. But the inconsistent offense and growing pains of the young pitchers led to a season of undeniable mediocrity at the bottom line with an 81-81 record and 4^th place.

2012 ADDITIONS:

RHP Sergio Santos was acquired from the Chicago White Sox.

RHP Francisco Cordero signed a 1-year, $4.5 million contract. (Reds)

OF Ben Francisco was acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies.

LHP Darren Oliver signed a 1-year, $4 million contract with 2013 club option.

RHP Jason Frasor was acquired from the Chicago White Sox.

C Jeff Mathis was acquired from the Los Angeles Angels.

RHP Jim Hoey was selected off waivers from the Minnesota Twins.

LHP Aaron Laffey signed a minor league contract.

RHP Jesse Chavez was selected off waivers from the Kansas City Royals.

INF Omar Vizquel signed a minor league contract. (White Sox)

LHP Trystan Magnuson was purchased from the Oakland Athletics.

RHP Rick Vandenhurk signed a split contract. (Orioles)

SS Jerry Gil signed a minor league contract.

RHP Cole Kimball was selected off waivers from the Washington Nationals.

RHP Andrew Carpenter was selected off waivers from the San Diego Padres.

INF Luis Valbuena was purchased from the Cleveland Indians.

RHP Robert Coello signed a minor league contract.

INF Brian Bocock signed a minor league contract.

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2012 SUBTRACTIONS:

RHP Frank Francisco was not re-signed. (Mets)

RHP Jon Rauch was not re-signed. (Mets)

C Jose Molina was not re-signed. (Rays)

OF Adam Loewen was not re-signed. (Mets)

LHP Brad Mills was traded to the Los Angeles Angels.

RHP Nestor Molina was traded to the Chicago White Sox.

LHP Wil Ledezma was not re-signed. (Dodgers)

OF Darin Mastroianni was claimed off waivers by the Minnesota Twins.

RHP P.J. Walters was not re-signed.

OF DeWayne Wise was not re-signed. (Yankees)

INF/OF Chris Woodward was not re-signed.

INF Jayson Nix was not re-signed. (Yankees)

RHP Shawn Camp was not re-signed. (Mariners)

INF/OF Mark Teahen was released. (Nationals)

2012 PROJECTED STARTING ROTATION: Ricky Romero; Brandon Morrow; Henderson Alvarez; Brett Cecil; Carlos Villanueva; Kyle Drabek.

2012 PROJECTED BULLPEN: Sergio Santos; Francisco Cordero; Jason Frasor; Darren Oliver; Casey Janssen; Dustin McGowan; Jesse Litsch; Luis Perez; Joel Carreno; Jesse Chavez.

2012 PROJECTED LINEUP: C-J.P. Arencibia; 1B-Adam Lind; 2B-Kelly Johnson; 3B-Brett Lawrie; SS-Yunel Escobar; LF-Eric Thames; CF-Colby Rasmus; RF-Jose Bautista; DH-Edwin Encarnacion.

2012 PROJECTED BENCH: OF-Ben Francisco; C-Jeff Mathis; OF/DH-Travis Snider; OF-Rajai Davis; INF-Mike McCoy.

2012 POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTORS: INF-Omar Vizquel; C-Travis D’Arnaud; LHP-Aaron Laffey; RHP-Jesse Chavez; RHP-Jim Hoey; LHP-Trystan Magnuson; INF-Luis Valbuena; LHP-Evan Crawford; RHP-Alan Farina; RHP-Danny Farquhar; INF-David Cooper; SS-Adeiny Hechavarria; OF-Moises Sierra; RHP-Rick Vandenhurk.

FANTASY PICKS: RHP-Carlos Villanueva; RHP-Brandon Morrow; RF-Jose Bautista; 3B-Brett Lawrie; SS-Yunel Escobar.

MANAGEMENT:

Early last season, GM Alex Anthopoulos was the newest member of the media-anointed “genius” club.

Yes, he was remarkably clever in somehow managing to get the Angels to take Vernon Wells and almost his entire contract off the Blue Jays’ hands, but that didn’t make him a genius. He lost the “genius” label almost immediately by trading the player he got in the Wells deal, Mike Napoli, to the Rangers for mediocre reliever Frank Francisco.

Anthopoulos is a good, smart and aggressive young GM. But he’s not a genius.

There’s a constant movement to name someone as a “genius” and this particular time it was Anthopoulos.

Why?

Is it for the sake of a story? Is it because for there to be an idiot, there has to be a genius and they’re interchangeable?

I don’t know.

But what I do know is that a baseball executive is only as good as the moves he makes. The perception of “good” or “bad” GMs is determined based on what passes as “analysis” from the masses, but the majority of the masses don’t know what they’re talking about. So what’s the appellation of “genius” worth?

If what a GM does makes sense, then he’s got a foundation to keep his job. If not, he doesn’t.

It’s that simple and has little to do with results. If a move makes sense and it fails, he shouldn’t be criticized for it after the fact.

The Blue Jays needed a bat this winter and didn’t get it. They looked into Prince Fielder and his demands for years and dollars were too pricey for the Blue Jays.

Instead, they’re making do with the moves they made in a frenzied flurry last summer when they acquired Colby Rasmus from the Cardinals and Kelly Johnson from the Diamondbacks.

They could’ve used a starting pitcher as well, but their bid for Yu Darvish fell short after a few days in which it was rumored that they’d won the bidding. Interest in Roy Oswalt was not reciprocated. Instead, Anthopoulos beefed up the bullpen with the re-acquisition of Jason Frasor; the signings of veterans Darren Oliver and Francisco Cordero; and the trade for Sergio Santos.

The moves make sense.

Whether or not they’ll work is the question and determinative factor for the masses to judge Anthopoulos.

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John Farrell is still learning how to manage in the big leagues and the Blue Jays overaggressiveness on the bases cost them runs last season. Capricious stolen bases are the opposite of what I would assume Farrell had been exposed to while he was pitching coach for the Red Sox and I don’t understand why he allows his baserunners such leeway especially with an all-world basher like Jose Bautista in the middle of the lineup.

Farrell is well respected and knows how to handle the pitching staff, but he has to improve his in-game strategies and running the lineup. He exhibited some of the same strengths and weaknesses that Bud Black has shown as Padres manager and the absence of experience in manipulating the lineup and offensive strategies are why I would be very reluctant to hire a former pitching coach as a manager.

The Red Sox were interested in possibly having Farrell replace Terry Francona and the Blue Jays had a strange policy of allowing people under contract the option of leaving if that’s what they chose to do. This public disclosure lasted for a few days until the widespread indignation at such as bizarre policy spurred them to backtrack and say the Red Sox could not speak to Farrell.

If the Blue Jays are going to improve from their 2011 record of 81-81 (the essence of mediocrity), their manager is going to have to improve as well.

STARTING PITCHING:

Ricky Romero was selected in the 2005 draft one slot ahead of Troy Tulowitzki. Obviously most teams would prefer to have the shortstop, but it’s not as if Romero is a bust. He’s become a top of the rotation starter whose innings have increased year-by-year in his three big league seasons. Now he’s a 220-inning man and had a fine season in 2011 going 15-11 with 176 hits allowed and 178 strikeouts. Romero is predominately a ground ball pitcher who benefited from the Blue Jays good infield defense and had a BAbip of .245 that’s going to be hard to repeat.

Romero has been compared to Johan Santana because of his fastball/changeup combination and deceptive motion. With a little bit better support from his offense, Romero would easily have won 20 games in 2011 and is a good bet to break out and become a household name in 2012.

The Blue Jays have rebuilt Brandon Morrow’s motion and confidence after a disastrous tenure with the Mariners in which he was jerked from the starting rotation and bullpen and had to live with the ignominy (through no fault of his own) that Giants’ star Tim Lincecum---from the University of Washington---was passed over in the draft in favor of Morrow.

He’s shown flashes of unhittability and racked up the strikeouts, but if the Blue Jays are going to contend, they’re going to have to take the shackles off of Morrow and he’s going to have to be durable and consistent.

The Blue Jays signed him to a contract extension for 3-years and $21 million with a club option at $10 million for 2015.

Now they need him to produce.

Morrow struck out 203 batters in 179 innings in 2011, but he’s still a work in progress. There are games that Morrow gets crushed and allows crooked numbers in bunches and it blows up his ERA.

In 2012, Morrow has to come close to 200 innings and slide in behind Romero as a legitimate co-ace. He has the stuff to do it, but he must harness his brilliant stuff with consistency, command and control.

As Morrow goes, so go the Blue Jays.

Righty Henderson Alvarez made his big league debut in 2011.

Alvarez was an undrafted free agent signed in 2006 and was impressive in 10 starts as a rookie. He’ll be 22 in April. His control and maturity stand out for someone so young. He walked 8 hitters and struck out 40 in 63 innings and wasn’t intimidated by being in the big leagues.

He changes speeds and has a wide array of pitches including several variations on his fastballs, a cutter, a slider and a changeup. He’s willing to pitch inside and has a plan to attack the hitters and executes it.

Jim Palmer used to say that pitching is a matter of getting ahead in the count and expanding the strike zone. That’s what Alvarez does.

Brett Cecil went 15-7 in 2010 but wound up back in the minors after an awful start in 2011. He pitched better after his recall in late June and was undone by a few more bad starts and a lack of run support. His season ended with similar across the board numbers as what they were in 2010, but his record in 2011 was 4-11.

The lefty doesn’t have overpowering stuff, loses the strike zone and is prone to giving up homers.

After spending the majority of his career as a reliever with the Brewers and Blue Jays, Carlos Villanueva moved into the starting rotation for 13 starts in the summer and acquitted himself well. He has the starter’s arsenal of four pitches---fastball, curve, slider, changeup---and, as long as he throws strikes, could do the job serviceably.

Villanueva has been a decent middle-reliever as well, so the Blue Jays have options on where and how to use him.

Kyle Drabek pitched reasonably well for a rookie into June, got knocked around in three starts and was sent back to the minors. He was recalled in September and pitched out of the bullpen. His numbers look far worse than they actually were with an ERA over 6. After he was sent down, he got pounded in Triple A Las Vegas with an ERA over 7 and a woeful hits/innings pitched ratio of 111/75.

He’s only 24 and his pedigree as the son of former NL Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek is beyond reproach. Eventually, he’s going to be a very good starting pitcher in the big leagues. If it’s in 2012, the Blue Jays are going to make a playoff run, if not he’s eventually going to be part of a young, deep starting rotation with Romero, Morrow and Alvarez.

BULLPEN:

After allowing both their closer Frank Francisco and set-up man Jon Rauch to depart (for the Mets), the Blue Jays traded for White Sox closer Sergio Santos and signed veteran former closer Francisco Cordero. Santos is going to start the season as Blue Jays’ closer.

Santos is an interesting story.

Drafted in the 1^st round in 2002 as a shortstop by the Diamondbacks, he wasn’t such a bad hitter that it became obvious that he should either quit or find another position. He had power and that lightning arm. In December of 2005, Santos was traded to the Blue Jays along with Troy Glaus for Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista. Still playing shortstop, he stagnated in Triple A and in 2008, the Twins selected him off waivers. He batted .228 for the Blue Jays’ and Twins Triple-A clubs and became a free agent.

In 2009, the White Sox signed him and made him into a pitcher.

He pitched in 26 minor league games at four different levels in that one year, posted an 8.16 ERA and 20 walks and 37 hits in 28 innings. He also struck out 30.

Making the White Sox roster as a relief pitcher in 2010, he appeared in 56 games and struck out 56 in 51 innings. By 2011, after Matt Thornton faltered in the closer’s role, Santos took over and saved 30 games. He struck out a ridiculous 92 batters in 63 innings and, because he spent so much time as a shortstop, he doesn’t have the wear and tear on his arm a full-time pitcher would.

He’s still learning how to pitch and loses the strike zone, but he has a power, moving fastball, a changeup and a slider and can be a dominant closer once he grows accustomed to the role and actually being a pitcher.

Veteran righty closer Francisco Cordero was left out in the cold during this winter’s saturated market for closers and took a 1-year deal from the Blue Jays to function as a set-up man/tutor/insurance for Santos.

Cordero no longer throws as hard as he once did and doesn’t strike out as many batters, but he’s a competent veteran reliever. He can be prone to the occasional longball, but deals well with both righties and lefties and will benefit from the Blue Jays solid infield defense.

Jason Frasor was sent from the Blue Jays to the White Sox amid the mid-season deals Anthopoulos made last summer. A longtime Blue Jay who was a durable, effective and versatile reliever, they reacquired him on New Year’s Day for two minor leaguers. Frasor strikes out around a batter per inning, is more effective against righties than lefties, but can get lefties out as well.

To the best of my recollection, Darren Oliver talked about retiring in 2006 after the Mets cut him late in spring training and only decided to keep pitching after the Mets changed their minds and brought him back.

That was six years ago.

Since then, he’s gone from the Angels to the Rangers and now to the Blue Jays. Going to Canada, he certainly can’t claim that he’s going to pitch as long as he’s near home.

The 41-year-old lefty is still a highly effective long reliever who, like the other relievers in the Blue Jays’ bullpen, can get out both lefties and righties. Having pitched in the hitters’ heaven of Texas, Oliver only allowed 7 homers combined in his two seasons with the Rangers.

He’s a solid and respected veteran pitcher and a positive, professional presence in the clubhouse.

Righty Casey Janssen has developed into a good reliever after missing the entire 2008 season with a torn labrum. Janssen is a ground ball pitcher who will benefit from the Blue Jays’ solid infield defense and only allowed 2 homers in 55 games in 2011. He has a wide arsenal of pitches, good velocity and, as appears to be a trend for Blue Jays’ relievers, he can get out both righties and lefties.

Dustin McGowan nearly had his career destroyed by shoulder injuries but made it back to the big leagues and in four September starts working on a limit of 80 pitches, he was able to reach the mid-90s with his fastball and showed promise in returning to some semblance of effectiveness.

Injuries---a torn hip labrum and shoulder problems---sabotaged Litsch just as it did Janssen and McGowan. He returned in 2011 to appear in 28 games, including 8 starts. Litsch’s stuff has never been overpowering, but he battles and pounds the strike zone. Now, in spring training, the injury bug has hit him again. Litsch had an infection in his shoulder from the site where platelet rich plasma was injected to speed his recovery from shoulder inflammation. He’s going to miss at least 6 weeks.

Lefty Luis Perez spent his career in the minor leagues as a mediocre starter and may have found a home in the Blue Jays bullpen in 2011. He can reach the mid-90s with his fastball and has a slider and changeup.

25-year-old righty Joel Carreno has put up massive strikeout numbers in the minors. He has a 90 mph fastball, a sharp-breaking slider, a cutter, a changeup and a curve. His stuff and minor league results profile him as a starter, but his strikeout numbers in the big leagues (14 in 15 innings) and 325 in 271 minor league innings in 2010-2011 show that he could be a useful arm out of the bullpen.

Jesse Chavez was claimed off waivers from the Royals. Chavez was somewhat effective as the nominal closer for Triple-A Omaha in 2011 and will be an extra arm for the Blue Jays. He’s never pitched as well as his stuff indicates he should.

LINEUP:

After the season he had with the Rangers, I’m wondering if the Blue Jays are regretting trading Mike Napoli for Frank Francisco days after acquiring him for Vernon Wells.

Sure, they had J.P. Arencibia “ready” for the big leagues and Travis d’Arnaud on the way up, but Napoli had 30 homers and a 1.046 OPS for the pennant-winning Rangers; he also threw out 36% of basestealers.

Arencibia on the other hand, hit 23 homers and did little else of use. He threw out 24% of basestealers (exactly what he’d posted in his final two minor league seasons); batted .219 with a .282 OBP and struck out 133 times. He had a .255 BAbip, so maybe he was hitting in a bit of bad luck, but slightly better luck wouldn’t repair his poor defense or rampant strikeouts.

It wouldn’t surprise me if, once d’Arnaud is deemed ready, Arencibia is traded or becomes a part-timer or backup.

Adam Lind had a terrific first half, but injuries to his back and wrist ruined what looked like it was going to be a repeat of his massive 2008 season in which he was a blossoming star.

Lind will hit 25 homers and 30-40 doubles; he strikes out a lot and adjusted well to a new position at first base. The Blue Jays could use a more consistent and threatening bat behind Jose Bautista than what Lind has been in the past two seasons. He’s more suited to batting sixth than fourth.

Kelly Johnson was acquired from the Diamondbacks for Aaron Hill in a trade of two disappointing players who, in the past, have shown better production than what they were giving to their former teams.

Johnson has 20+ homer power, provides 30+ doubles, and will steal a few bases while playing good defense at second base. He walks a fair amount and strikes out a lot. Since 2009, he’s alternated good and bad seasons with the Braves and Diamondbacks. He had a .781 OPS in 33 games with the Blue Jays after the trade.

Brett Lawrie was acquired from the Brewers for Shaun Marcum before the 2011 season and spent the first four months of the season in Triple-A Las Vegas demolishing the Pacific Coast League to the tune of a .353 average, .415 on base and 18 homers. He was scheduled to be recalled earlier in the season before he was hit on the hand with a pitch and delayed. Once he got to the big leagues, he made it clear that he had no intention of ever going back down.

He had 9 homers with a .953 OPS in 171 plate appearances. He’s a fine defensive third baseman and can play second as well. At 22, he’s brimming with confidence and is poised to become an entrenched entity for the Blue Jays and an All-Star.

After being driven out of Atlanta by Bobby Cox and the Braves’ veterans because of his frequent gaffes and selfish behaviors, Yunel Escobar has found a home in Toronto.

He signed a contract extension for 2-years (2012-2013) at $10 million and the club holds options for $5 million annually in both 2014 and 2015. If Escobar plays the solid defense and hits as he did in 2011, he’ll be a ridiculous bargain. He had 11 homers, 24 doubles and a .782 OPS in 133 games last season and could be even better as he matures.

25-year-old, lefty-swinging outfielder Eric Thames took over in left field after Juan Rivera was traded and Travis Snider was demoted; Thames hit 12 homers in 394 plate appearances. He strikes out a lot, but has shown some on base skills. He struggled badly against lefties as a rookie batting .209, so he might be platooned in 2012.

Colby Rasmus was being torn in multiple directions while with the Cardinals. His drafting was questioned by the old-school people in the front office who chafed at the new school thinkers who were brought in and seen as unwanted interlopers; his father Tony openly interfered with the way the Cardinals wanted Colby to hit; Albert Pujols called him out for his perceived whining and unhappiness when it got out that he’d asked to be traded; and Tony LaRussa didn’t want to play him.

The Cardinals made a series of drastic trades at mid-season and dealt Rasmus to the Blue Jays.

That they won the World Series after Rasmus was gone has resulted in the specious reasoning that it was Rasmus who was the problem and once he was gone, everything fell into place for the Cardinals.

Of course, it’s ludicrous. The Cardinals wouldn’t have made the playoffs had the Braves not collapsed.

Rasmus wasn’t a clubhouse problem because of personality, lack of ability or attitude. He was a clubhouse problem because he was caught in the middle of a war zone between multiple parties and couldn’t deal with the pressure to perform amid the shots being fired over his head.

He’s 25 and it’s not easy to be a coach’s son and live an enabled life with the game coming easy and then be the rope in a tug-of-war.

He’s better off with the Blue Jays.

Are the Blue Jays better off with him?

Rasmus batted .173 after joining the Blue Jays, but he battled a wrist injury and missed most of September.

He showed his ability in 2010 as he had an .859 OPS and 23 homers in 144 games. He had good power numbers and on base skills in the minors and is a solid, if not spectacular bat with pop. If the Blue Jays simply tell him that he’s going to be their everyday center fielder and leave him alone, he’ll be fine.

Jose Bautista proved that his 2010 season---in which he hit 54 home runs---was not a fluke with another 43 homers in 2011 to lead the American League. He also led the league in walks, slugging percentage and OPS.

Because of the bizarre and overaggressive way in which manager Farrell allows his runners to try to steal bases and self-defeating lineup decisions, Bautista only drove in 103 runs with those 43 homers. For a hitter who’s on base 44% of the time, Bautista only scored 105 runs.

This is nowhere near enough and if the team is going to take advantage of the basher that Joey Bats has become, they have to bat him fourth and surround him with hitters who get on base in front of him and won’t try to steal bases for no reason to risk running them out of innings. They need hitters behind him who can and will drive him in.

As for Bautista himself, he’s become one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball and is a good choice for the MVP.

Edwin Encarnacion may have had an epiphany in the second half of the 2011 season when he batted .291 with a .383 on base percentage and 11 homers. For the season, he hit 17 homers and had an .787 OPS. Encarnacion has always had All-Star talent and was so oblivious to his surroundings that two of the most patient managers in recent baseball memory---Dusty Baker and Cito Gaston---wanted to strangle him.

He’s listed as the Blue Jays DH for 2012, but I’d hesitate to think that he’s going to continue the good work that he showed over the final few months of last season only because he’s Edwin Encarnacion and it’s in his DNA to aggravate, tease and regress.

BENCH:

Veteran righty-swinging outfielder Ben Francisco was acquired from the Phillies and will see plenty of at bats as a possible platoon partner for Thames and occasional DH. Francsico has 10-15 home run power if he gets significant at bats; he can steal a few bases and doesn’t strike out much.

Jeff Mathis was acquired from the Angels as a defensively-minded backup to Arencibia. Mathis can’t hit---he’s a .194 career hitter---but he can handle a pitching staff and in a strange twist, hits really well in the post-season. The Blue Jays only hope that they have the opportunity to see Mathis become a different player in October.

Travis Snider has received every opportunity to stake a claim in the Blue Jays’ lineup, but hasn’t grabbed and run with it. The 6’0”, 240 pound Snider has posted good power/on base numbers in the minors, but has yet to show much in the big leagues. With the Blue Jays’ DH spot in flux, he might get another chance in 2012. He’s only 24, so there’s time for him to right himself.

Rajai Davis is a backup outfielder who stole 34 bases in 95 games for the Blue Jays in 2011. He can play all three outfield positions and has hit well in the past when given a chance to play semi-regularly.

Mike McCoy is a 31-year-old, journeyman utility player who can’t really hit (career big league average of .194), but can play multiple positions well and has a good eye at the plate. He also stole 12 bases in 80 games last season.

PREDICTION:

The Blue Jays 2012 season will come down to a series of “ifs”.

If manager John Farrell takes his foot off the gas with the ridiculous stolen bases and does a better job of running his offense…

If the young pitchers Morrow, Alvarez, Cecil and Drabek slot in solidly behind Romero…

If the “good” Johnson and Encarnacion show up…

If Lawrie and Rasmus continue their development…

If Lind is healthy and hits somewhere close to as he did in the first half of last season…

If Santos is able to close for a team with designs on contention…

If the Red Sox and Rays are downgraded enough for the Blue Jays to slip past them…

If, if, if.

The Blue Jays are very talented and have many questions surrounding them. This is why they would be a legitimate playoff choice if they’d gotten another proven basher to team with Bautista in the middle of the lineup and if they’d gotten a legitimate, frontline starting pitcher.

But they didn’t.

So they’re left with the multitude of “ifs”.

I wanted to pick the Blue Jays to make the playoffs or enter the last week of the season with a chance to make the playoffs in 2012, but when the “improvements” are limited to Santos, Cordero, Mathis, Oliver and a lot of hope, I can’t pick them to surpass the big guns in the American League.

The extra Wild Card team is giving teams like the Blue Jays an opening that wasn’t there before, so if they get into the mid-80s with their win total, they’ve got a legitimate shot of getting in and once they’re in, they have the components---young pitching, a deep bullpen and that mauler Bautista---to put a scare into anyone.

If they’re in contention at mid-season, they’re going to have the minor league talent to make a big acquisition at the deadline along the lines of David Wright or Matt Garza, but that’s not going to come to pass until June or July.

As of right now, they’re hovering between the innocent climb from 81-81 mediocrity to 90+ wins and playoff contention.

It could go both ways and they’re going to wind up somewhere in the middle of those two conclusions.

PREDICTED RECORD: 87-75

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The above is a clip from my book Paul Lebowitz's 2012 Baseball Guide.

It's available on Kindle, Lulu, Nook and Smashwords with other outlets on the way.

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Managing Gutlessly And To Lose

• Brewers 6-Pirates 5:

One of the reasons that Tony La Russa has been such a successful manager over the long

term is that he isn't a slave to the supposed "book" that he's blamed for co-authoring. The push-button, computerized managerial handbook that exists only for those that aren't confident enough in their baseball savvy or are too paranoid to make a risky decision because it's just easier to explain to geniuses in the media and meddlesome owners why he did something that appeared to be correct, but didn't work.
La Russa, as much as he plays percentages, rolls the dice more than people realize. He's earned the right to chafe at having those decisions questioned by the press, but he's not making his moves based on safety-first because he's always been the same type of manager from when he took over the White Sox in 1979 at age 34, as he is now managing the Cardinals at age 63. I still remember one incident when there was an insider's profile on La Russa and he was being recorded as he managed; a young pitcher had just been recalled and it was a clear bunting situation, but La Russa called to the bullpen and just as the pitcher settled into the batter's box, La Russa asked urgently, "Can he hit?" after receiving the response which, presumably, was that they didn't know, La Russa said, "Well, he's swingin' now." I don't know what happened in the at bat, but how many managers would have had the nerve to pull something like that with a pitcher about whom they had no clue? The point to all of this is to illustrate the difference between a Hall of Fame manager like La Russa and what I was watching last night as the

Brewers and Pirates held a managerial screw-up convention.
There were so many bizarre decisions made last night that they have to be compartmentalized. The decision of when and with whom to bunt shouldn't be all that hard especially for guys like Brewers manager Dale Sveum and Pirates manager John Russell, who played the game as fringe big leaguers and had to do everything they could to maintain a spot on the roster; and have also managed in the minor leagues.
First, there were the bunt plays. To me, getting a leadoff batter on and then bunting him to second is an iffy proposition unless the pitcher or a notoriously weak hitter is batting. A runner on second base isn't going to score unless one of the next two hitters gets a base hit or something strange happens. Staying out of the potential double-play is a consideration, but that's all the more reason to try something like a hit-and-run instead of ordering a straight sacrifice. In the eighth inning with the Pirates leading 5-4, J.J. Hardy singled to lead off the

inning off of Pirates lefty John Grabow. Right-handed power hitter Corey Hart was batting and manager Sveum had him bunt Hardy to second base. The bunt is an explainable strategy; but to bunt with a batter who has 20 homers and 89 RBI against a lefty pitcher was just overmanaging in a panicky sort of way. Add in that Hart can run and the double play is only likely if he hits the ball right at someone. The bunt was successful and it ended up working because the light-hitting Jason Kendall doubled to tie the game, but it wasn't the right move. The power hitters are there to drive in runs and had Kendall not gotten that clutch, two-out hit, the Brewers would've lost.
Then it was Russell's turn to mess around with an unnecessary bunt. In the top of the ninth, after Nyjer Morgan reached on an infield single, Freddy Sanchez was batting. Sanchez squared around to bunt as if he were a starting pitcher sacrificing the runner to second and

the Brewers were charging in from the corners and shifting their infield all over the place like it was the worst hitting pitcher in history trying to advance the runner. Why is it that managers are so entrenched in what's safe that they don't look at each situation individually? Sanchez is a former batting champion who rarely strikes out; Morgan runs like the wind; why not have him steal as the infield is moving all over the place? Why not have Sanchez square to bunt and chop at the ball to try and dribble it through the infield? Or why not put on a hit and run, having Morgan trying to steal the base as Sanchez chops at the ball? If they'd done that and Sanchez got the ball through the infield, Morgan might've been able to score from first base.
Then there were the pitching decisions. There's no way to give Sveum a hard time for using Guillermo Mota in the eighth inning; he's in the same situation as former Mets manager Willie Randolph was with Mota a year ago as Randolph kept using him despite his failures; the Brewers, like the Mets of 2007, don't have any alternatives other than to use Mota and hope for the best. As for the Pirates, Russell brought in T.J. Beam, a 27-year-old career minor league journeyman

who might one day have some use as a long reliever. After Ryan Braun reached on an infield hit, Prince Fielder was at the plate. Russell walked out to the mound to talk to his pitcher and catcher about how to handle Fielder and with the first two pitches so far outside that it was clear that they wanted nothing to do with Fielder and were hoping that he'd be overanxious and chase a bad pitch, why didn't they just walk him after the second ball? And I don't want to hear about how you don't put the winning run on second base because just before I changed the channel, I saw the winning run score right before Fielder jumped into the circle of teammates waiting at home plate to greet him after his game-winning homer landed in the right-center field bleachers. I don't know about you, but I like the Beam-J.J. Hardy matchup better than I like seeing Beam throw anything anywhere close to the strike zone for Fielder to handle.
Of course it's easier to make the safety-first moves like bunting runners into scoring position or refusing to walk a winning run into scoring position, but that doesn't make it right for the manager or team to be so weak-minded that they're going to let concerns about what's going to be said about them dictate what decisions they make, even if the opposite of what they did would've been correct. They may have lost or won anyway, but that doesn't validate gutless, simple-minded adherence to a non-existent book of maneuvers.

• Brewers should not pitch C.C. Sabathia again on short-rest, and Sabathia shouldn't agree to it:

Moving C.C. Sabathia up to pitch on three-days rest for the second time in a row is an

understandable decision given the Brewers current predicament, their porous starting pitching and the injury to Ben Sheets, but Sabathia should think of himself as well as the team; and the Brewers should look at their situation and decide that one pitcher isn't going to be able to carry them through the post-season no matter how dominant he's been.
Sabathia is clearly tired. His stuff in his last two starts wasn't as sharp as it was since the trade to the Brewers and he has to, at some point, consider his own situation before risking injury as he's weeks before untold millions in free agency. To go out to the mound and run on fumes and guts to help save a sinking ship is admirable, but there comes a point where there are diminishing returns. Are the Brewers going to pay Sabathia if he gets hurt helping them try and save a playoff spot? They've squeezed every single pitch they possibly can out of the big lefty knowing that they're not going to have him after the season and Sabathia isn't the type to out-and-out say that he's concerned about his personal future at the expense of his current team's goals; but he should at least consider it before running this risk of overtaxing such a valuable commodity as his left arm.
The Brewers have to accept the fact that they're going to need to get winning performances from more than one starting pitcher if they're going to get to the playoffs. What good does it do to have Sabathia go out to the mound tired, diminish his stuff and get him at less than 100%, only to have to use one of their other pitchers in the coming days? They have to win

after tonight one way or the other, why weaken the one strength out of desperation?
Sabathia and the Brewers have manhandled the Pirates this year and that Pirates lineup isn't exactly intimidating, but that's all the more reason to give Sabathia his full rest and pitch him on Thursday; add in that Paul Maholm is a pretty good pitcher and there's a real chance that the game's going to be close and Sabathia won't be able to pitch late into the game due to exhaustion; the Brewers bullpen will again be called upon to record key outs either way. It's a bad move all the way around, no matter what happens.

• Yankees 3-Blue Jays 1:

Is the Blue Jays front office seeing reality yet? The reality that without the ten-game win streak in early September, they're a .500 team? That Scott Rolen has been a disaster while

Troy Glaus is closing in on 100 RBI? That a team who has hot streaks once any chance of contention is gone is not a good team? That they're an also-ran year-after-year? Or are they going to move forward in a difficult decision with the same strategy and expect a different result?
Anyone home? Hello?

• Twins 9-White Sox 3:

I understand what White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen was doing when he issued a media-delivered challenge to last night's starter Javier Vazquez. Among other things, Guillen said

Vazquez "hasn't been" a big game pitcher in his career. Guillen's off-the-wall rants are largely a matter of design in the hopes of making his players angry enough that they perform with a greater determination to prove him wrong; the problem is that these types of psychological ploys don't always work with certain personalities. Vazquez isn't the type of guy who seems to like having people screaming in his face.
In fairness to Guillen, Vazquez hasn't been very good in the few opportunities he's had to pitch in important games, but that doesn't justify hanging that reputation around his neck right before he's making a very important start against the closest division competitor to the White Sox on the road in Minnesota. These allegations are ignored by some players; taken as a challenge to others; and used as a reason to go out and perform timidly and badly by some who just don't like being challenged that way. Part of being a successful all-around manager is being able to read the players and respond to what they specifically need to perform; Guillen is a successful manager, but he misread his player in this case. Vazquez might've gotten shelled anyway, but Guillen's comments certainly didn't help.

• Rangers 6-Athletics 4:
  

No matter how the Rangers end this season, why do I get the feeling that team president, the cold, deliberating and ruthless Nolan Ryan is out in the shed sharpening his axe?

Yapping So Much While Accomplishing So Little

• Admitting mistakes is not a sign of weakness:

With the way Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi is treating a two week hot streak as a validation

of his handling of the organization, one would think he not only had two World Series titles in his trophy case, but that he was somehow treated unfairly on the road to those two titles. Now that the Blue Jays have secured a record above .500 for the season and Ricciardi's job has likely been spared (again), he's seen fit to start defending his record not in a matter-of-fact way, but by blustering and crowing about all the good things he's accomplished during his mediocre seven year run as the team's architect.
In an article on Canda.com----Link----Ricciardi isn't shy in crediting himself for the relatively few big league players his drafts have delivered; that the team hadn't "had to go the route [like] the Minnesotas or the Tampas, lose those 100, 90 [games]; eight, nine years of losing in a row" (as if that's some great accomplishment); and deflects the

blame for the team's relentless status as an also-ran by citing "circumstances" (whatever that means).
If the team had spent eight or nine years losing 100, 90 games, then Ricciardi would absolutely have reason to say that things are improving and the future is promising; but they haven't. This is the third year in a row in which they were expected to finally jump into contention and the third year in a row that they were an average team with an average record before a late-season hot streak made them appear as if they were on the rise. I'd say that it's a safe bet that the same thing's going to happen next year; the one question I keep asking is how long before the Blue Jays ownership wises up to this fact.
Perhaps Ricciardi's obvious and insistent attempts to depict himself as an alpha-male are preventing him from looking at the team and his mistakes objectively and saying that he screwed up, but it's no sign of strength to continually flap one's mouth without reason and expect those that know better to buy it. After seven years and repeated embarrassments and mistakes on and off the field, Ricciardi's still displaying an arrogance that is beyond comprehension; a record of 86-76 is not an accomplishment for someone who claims to have all the answers, it's a failure; what's worse, it's a failure that he repeats over and over again without anyone willing to pull the plug. And next year, with the Red Sox being as good as they are; the Yankees going to spend tons of money to fill their holes and the Rays still young and supremely talented, the Blue Jays aren't going to be in any better position than they're in now unless they make some drastic changes in the front office, but that's not going to happen because a bad start and solid finish only gives the illusion of success and it's an illusion that is going to happen again and again until the organization wakes up and sees it for what it is, much to their detriment.

• Marlins 8-Astros 1:

The Astros have a legitimate gripe with the way the hurricane-induced cancellations were handled essentially taking two home games away from them and sending them to Milwaukee

to face the Cubs in a stadium loaded with Cubs fans, but that can't account for them continuing to lose after they went to Florida to play the Marlins. Anger is one thing, but once the game starts, the players aren't in the batter's box or on the mound thinking about how they were wronged. Their hot streak that launched them back into contention had to end sooner or later and it just happened to end at a time in which they had a convenient scapegoat. The three losses to the blazing hot Marlins aren't accountable to anything that happened over the weekend.
Speaking of the Marlins, is Fredi Gonzalez going to steal the Manager of the Year award from other deserving candidates like Tony La Russa, Lou Piniella and Joe Torre as he leads the Marlins on this eight game win streak and onto the outskirts of contention? I don't see the Manager of the Year award as one in which the voters are doing too much deep thought, so La Russa's peformance in keeping the Cardinals in contention as

long as he did; Piniella's underappreciated work with the Cubs (every Lou Piniella team from the start of his managerial career has played the game the right way, advancing runners and performing the fundamentals----it's no accident); and Torre's calm leadership of the Dodgers, might be forgotten as the Marlins end over .500 with a bargain basement payroll. With each passing day, the job Gonzalez has done with the Marlins, along with the growing pains Joe Girardi is having with the Yankees and their $210 million payroll, diminishes Girardi's 2006 season all the more and lends credence to the Marlins claims about the organization being more responsible for their success than any manager could be. (I'd give the Manager of the Year to Piniella.)

By Monday, Both The Mets And Phillies May Be Heading For The Playoffs

• Phillies 6-Brewers 3:

The one game the Brewers had to win was last night's; everything else for the rest of this

series was built on that. They had Ben Sheets going; they were facing a gutty, smart, but hittable pitcher in Jamie Moyer; and the Phillies were desperate and reeling knowing that they'd just lost two straight games to the Marlins and were in danger of falling five games behind the Mets in the loss column, which, last year aside, would have likely sealed their fate. Now it's official, the Brewers are in the midst of an implosion and they're going to miss the playoffs.
Despite the obvious flaws of the Phillies, they never quit. As was proven last year, they're going to fight until every last ounce of blood and sweat is left on the field; is the same true with a Brewers team that is taking on the same tight, petrified countenance of their manager, Ned Yost? After last night's favorable pitching matchup, the rest of the weekend is probably going to have at least two games in which the scores resemble something that would be analyzed on ESPN College GameDay instead of Baseball Tonight; and with the way the Brewers bullpen has detonated so many games, they're going to be in big trouble if it's close going past the seventh inning.
If Sheets wasn't able to hold down the Phillies lineup, what chance do the likes of Manny

Parra, Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan have in Citizens Bank Park? The Phillies pitching isn't all that much better, but with Cole Hamels going tonight, they have the advantage; and Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick aren't going to just give in to the Brewers bashers; plus this is a case where Phillies manager Charlie Manuel's quick hook and overuse of his bullpen will be an advantage because the Brewers won't be able to win a battle of the bullpens.
The Mets have a Braves team that doesn't have the manpower or wherewithal to be able to win more than one game this weekend; if both the Mets and Phillies take care of business, both are going to be ahead of the Brewers and both are going to be in great position to make the playoffs.
And what of the Brewers? They're going to have some tough questions to answer after the deadline deal for C.C. Sabathia; after they were rolling along and looking not only like a team that was going to make the playoffs, but a team that was primed to do serious damage in the

playoffs. I don't know any team that would want to have to deal with the prospect of Sabathia and Sheets in a short series as both are looking to pad their resumes to make even more money in free agency this winter. At this rate, with the Phillies and Astros right behind them and closing fast, they need their back of the rotation pitchers and powerful lineup to step up and carry them home; considering the way they're playing, it doesn't look like it's going to happen and this is to the advantage of both the Mets and Phillies, for whom the road to the playoffs may not have anything to do with one another after all.

• I got the skillz to pay the billz and Canada's Most Wanted:

I suppose I'll take it as a compliment that so many Blue Jays fans who've gotten all riled

up over my cold-blooded and accurate assessment of their team of the past and future think I'm an embittered Yankee fan. If anything's an indicator of my writing skills and an ability to stay neutral, it's that. To adjust a quote Larry David from Curb Your Enthusiasm (before it got really annoying), "I do hate myself, but it has nothing to do with being Jewish!"; I'm embittered, but it has nothing to do with being a Yankee fan; in fact, I'm a Mets fan, for which I think I have an ingrained right to be embittered. Good thing I didn't say anything about the Maple Leafs. (Be on the lookout for the man on the right, he's extremely dangerous and devastatingly good looking.)

• Governor Sarah Palin's interview with Charles Gibson:

The interview hasn't played yet, but the main points are already out in the media. The objective truth about the interview and Gov. Palin herself is that the country is running the risk

of electing as the Vice President for a 72-year-old man what amounts to a pretty version of George W. Bush from the year 2000. Charming, likable and ingratiating herself to the religious right with conservative values, references to God and vague populist talking points, Gov. Palin stays on message to a remarkable degree while clearly knowing very little in depth of what she's talking about.
Those main points----war with Russia is an option to protect Georgia; she was quoting Abraham Lincoln during that speech in her church about God and the Iraq war; she hadn't the faintest idea what the "Bush Doctrine" is and what it entails----are frightening to those that are in stunned disbelief of the idea that she's capable of taking over as the President of the United States on a moment's notice.
Does she really believe that a war with Russia, which was avoided during all those years of the Cold War, is an option while this country's military is trapped in the Middle East? Is she suggesting military action to protect a small republic that is, in truth, of little import to the United States? Does John McCain believe that?
Is she expecting the public to think that she was studying the speeches of Abraham Lincoln to find quotes when referencing God as she discussed the Iraq war?
The sheer look of panic as her brain was searching for a way to stickhandle (let's use a hockey term for the hockey mom) her way around the question without having a viable answer or even a passing knowledge of what the "Bush Doctrine" is was frightening and painful to watch.
The slogan for the McCain/Palin ticket is "Country First". Is it in the country's interest to put a 72-year-old man into the oval office with another version of George Bush as his VP? As

Barack Obama says, it's enough. Enough with the bullet points; enough with the populist speeches designed to attract the masses; enough with someone who doesn't know what they're doing and tries to pass off being able to "see Russia" from the Alaskan soil as foreign policy experience. And for those that are ready to say that she has as much experience as Obama, she doesn't. Obama has been running for president for almost two years now and, with all due respect, I find it very difficult to believe that Gov. Palin is as smart and skilled as Obama. There's a very real possibility that she'll have to step in and be president very quickly and that is something that cannot be risked.
I'm very concerned that the Obama campaign is not hitting back as hard as they should against the republican campaign strategy for fear of being labeled as "sexist". If anything should awaken the voting public of the danger of having someone with no experience whatsoever as a possible commander-in-chief, it should be the anniversary of September 11th.
Amid all the remembrances should be the scene of President Bush, sitting in that school classroom for seven long minutes after being informed of the attacks and not having the faintest idea of what to do. As much as it's been spun with varying stories of the president not

wanting to alarm the children; of deliberating what to do next; of whatever reason they give for his lack of action and look on his face of sheer confusion and panic, does this country want to run the risk of putting another person of flimsy qualifications and questionable knowledge in that position? This has to be pointed out for what it is and the democrats have to take a page from the book of the republicans and point out these hard facts that the interview Gov. Palin hammered home.
The same mistake that the Gore campaign made against Bush cannot be made again. All along, I think the Gore people looked at then-Gov. Bush and thought that the public can't be taken in by this; they can't think that the Bush name recognition, support of the republican base and his likability will mask his complete

inadequacy and unpreparedness for the job. They were outhustled; they underestimated the message of Bush as it was presented in simple and easy to understand well-articulated bullet points that were designed to attract swing voters who were sick of the Clintons. They shook their heads, shrugged their shoulders and thought, "no one's gonna buy this crap", and they lost. The Obama campaign is still in a great position, but they can't repeat the mistakes of the past by being gentlemanly, because if Hillary Clinton were on the ticket, the republicans sure wouldn't.