Ryan Howard's Contract Doesn't Look So Bad Now

Will the contract Joey Votto eventually signs make the Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols deals look obsolete? Will it put an exclamation point on how prescient the Rays and Rockies were when they locked Evan Longoria and Troy Tulowitzki up to long term deals so early in their careers? How will Tim Lincecum’s decision to bet on himself and take short-term payouts rather than long-term security and wait for his free agency look?

Criticism of a contract at the time it’s signed is easy but the power of hindsight puts them into greater perspective and diminishes the impact.

Ryan Howard’s contract extension looked atrocious when he signed it because it was done so far in advance (almost 2 years) of his potential free agency and the market was going to be flush with other, better options—Pujols and Fielder among them.

Howard’s extension begins this season and, if he were a free agent this winter and signed it, the criticism for his representatives would be loud and endless.

5-years and $125 million?

Fielder is 4 1/2 years younger than Howard and is a more productive hitter, but they’re in the same realm and Fielder received 9-years and $214 million.

Of course, in reality, the deals are pretty much the same thing. But agents don’t want to hear about age and other factors when hawking their players to the highest bidders. Fans and analysts with an agenda don’t want to hear about the breakdown of the dollars equating identically. They’ll focus on $214 million vs $125 million as the common denominator even if it’s not so common.

The final number is the way they keep score in spite of it being inaccurate and twisted.

Pujols is another story.

He received the $240 million contract from the Angels—a contract that will pay him $30 million on 2021 at age 41—coming off of his worst season in the big leagues. In fairness, Pujols’s worst season still landed him fifth in the NL MVP voting in a season in which his team won the World Series, but that doesn’t alter the fact that it was his worst season.

As much as Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is lambasted for the way he lavishes long-term contracts on his players, signs free agents and has gutted the farm system to try and win immediately, I’m starting to think he’s savvier than any of us realize.

The market was going to be stacked with first baseman this winter. Had Amaro waited Howard out, Howard might’ve wanted a contract commensurate with Pujols—not close to what Pujols received, but certainly not half the guaranteed money that Pujols received either.

For Howard, he got paid, is staying in one place for essentially his whole career and the Phillies didn’t have to enter into protracted and contentious negotiations to keep Howard or consider alternatives.

It’s idiotic to savage the contract based on Howard’s torn Achilles tendon suffered—adding injury to insult—when he made the last out in the Phillies’ NLDS loss to the Cardinals. This isn’t a degenerative injury to a joint that was known to be a potential issue before he signed; it was a freak occurrence that could happen walking down a flight of stairs or getting out of bed. It happened and it’s no one’s fault.

The simplicity that outsiders place on running a club is astounding. To believe that front office people are “stupid” because they make a decision that some disagree with is the height of arrogance and I’ve done it myself.

Perhaps both sides weighed the pros and cons and made the conscious decision to avert what happened with the Cardinals and Pujols where a negotiation that was fait accompli (“Pujols isn’t going to leave the Cardinals”—something I also said repeatedly) and turned out to be completely wrong.

Putting a financial value on a player in an open market is a fruitless endeavor. Few teams stick to a stated budget if they have a choice and as Fielder and Pujols proved, there will always be that one owner who has a reason to spend a perceived loony amount of cash to get the player he wants. The best a GM can do is to make his recommendations to his bosses, come to conclusions of the best way to move forward and deal with the fallout if it fails or accept the accolades if it works. No matter how many people try to find a way to calculate what a player is “worth”, it has little to do with what he actually winds up getting.

Market dictates salary. Not the other way around.

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Warning Signs Abound for the Phillies

It’s no secret that the window for the Phillies to continue dominating the National League East is closing rapidly. Looking at their roster, age and contracts, there were concerns before the news that they intend to go with Ty Wigginton as their regular first baseman and a platoon of John Mayberry Jr. and Laynce Nix in left field to replace Raul Ibanez.

(Domonic Brown? What’s a Domonic Brown?)

A left field platoon of Nix and Mayberry should be productive enough. Nix’s good defense and pop will counteract---to a point---his lack of on-base skills. Mayberry deserves the chance to play every day, but GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said there will likely be a platoon.

Wigginton can’t field, Jim Thome can barely move, and Chase Utley’s range is compromised by his physical breakdown. The Phillies strength on the mound will be damaged by porous defense on the right side of the infield.

The National League East no longer automatically belongs to the Phillies. The Marlins have made major free agent acquisitions; the Nationals are improved; and the Braves are being ignored because of their lack of movement, but are still very good.

The Phillies are old, expensive and trapped by a payroll that’s at its limit. Despite assertions to the contrary, Roy Halladay is human and can’t keep up his excellence forever. They can rely on their top three starters for 2012 as Halladay and Cliff Lee are still at the top of their games and Cole Hamels is singing for his free agent supper.Vance Worley is entering his second go-round through the league and, much like Jason Isringhausen proved with the Mets from 1995-1996, it’s not as easy as Worley made it look in 2011 by blasting fastballs and swagger.

The Phillies offense was a problem last season in spite of the pitching carrying them to 102 wins. They didn’t hit in the playoffs and it was the main reason they got bounced in the first round.

They’ve done nothing to improve that offense and will be without Ryan Howard for at least the first two months of the season.

Have they repaired the problems that contributed to their playoff losses in 2010-2011? An upgrade was made by replacing their on-again/off-again closer Ryan Madson with one of baseball’s best in Jonathan Papelbon, but it's not an upgrade so significant that it will account for worsening offense and defense.

Considering their payroll issues and that their farm system is largely gutted, they won’t be able to do anything drastic at mid-season to fix their issues as they have in the past.

Flashing warning signs are everywhere and teams that have had five year runs as the Phillies have tend to come apart quickly. Due to reality, circumstance, personnel errors, desperation trades, overpriced contracts and compromises to the present, the Phillies fall might come a year or two early.

That fall will be rapid. Don’t be stunned if it begins in earnest in 2012.

PaulLebowitz.com.

Ghosts Of 2007 Or Just A Late-Season Slump?

• Nationals 1-Mets 0:

Without last season's collapse, the perception of this September's version of the Mets

would be that they're in a slump; that their bullpen coughed up a couple of games they should've won; that they ran into two pitchers in Washington that shut them down; that they're still in a great position to make the playoffs via the division or Wild Card with twelve games left. But that's revisionist history. Until they exorcise that ghost by making the playoffs (and I don't think it matters all that much if they go in and, as the Phillies did last year and is so conveniently forgotten, flame out and get swept away in the first round before they even have time to blink), no one's going to forget what happened in September of 2007; and more importantly, no one's going to let the Mets players, old and new, forget what happened either. Nor should they.
The two seasons are so vastly different that there's no way to compare the team and the way things played out, but it's the result that's going to create this vision of the Mets as a team that collapses every September. It's easy to ignore that it was a hot streak of 21 wins in 30 games that got them ahead of the Phillies to begin with. It's easy to ignore that the Phillies ran roughshod over a team in the Brewers that is collapsing in an even worse fashion than the Mets have for a second straight year; it's so bad in Milwaukee that they fired their manager with twelve games remaining to save their season.
As easy as it is to compare the two seasons, the Mets can only tip their hats to the Nationals, who've played and pitched very well over the past two games and beaten them. The only thing they can do is go on the field and worry about themselves. If they take care of their own games, they won't have to watch the scoreboard and wonder what the Phillies and Brewers are doing and whether or not they're going to get help from other teams.
Much like the questions about former manager Willie Randolph's job status (don't be surprised if he ends up in Milwaukee after the season as their new manager, by the way), the Mets players are distracted by ancillary things over which they have no control. As I said yesterday, a big chunk of the 2008 nucleus weren't members of the team in 2007, but with all the repeated inquiries about the collapse, it must feel as if they were. It would be refreshing for Johan Santana or Brian Schneider to say, "Look, I wasn't here then; how do I know what

went on?" They're feeling the pressure; gripping the bats too tightly; trying to throw too hard and each player is trying to win games all by himself. That's not the way to win in any month, not just September.
If the Mets make it to the playoffs, they'll be so relaxed and playing with so little pressure that they're a good bet to make it all the way to the World Series; they just have to stop worrying about 2007 because in the end, as much as it's mentioned as a ghost, it has nothing to do with what's happening now.

• Cubs 5-Brewers 4:

Much like the curveball from Adam Wainwright that struck out Carlos Beltran to end the 2006 NLCS, there's no way to give Prince Fielder a hard time for striking out against Kerry Wood last night to end the game. After battling his way to a 3-2 count and fouling off one 96 mph fastball after

another, Babe Ruth himself couldn't have hit that curve that Wood broke off to end the game. (The pitcher-batter battle reminded me of the Reggie Jackson-Bob Welch, 1978 World Series duel of power vs power.)
With all the nonsensical talk of "must wins" for the Mets, this was a "must win" for the Brewers. They had their ace in C.C. Sabathia on the mound and Sabathia had been all but unhittable since joining the team; this was their first game for new manager Dale Sveum; and to get things off on the right foot and appear as if they weren't still in the fog that led to the devastating sweep at the hands of the Phillies, they had to win this game; but they didn't. Now, the Brewers are in even deeper trouble than the Mets. There's nothing much else they can do to try and win this season. They made bold maneuvers to improve the club; they fired the manager when things were crumbling; and they still lost another game.
It would be stunning if they were able to regain control from this tailspin, but they've got their second ace pitching tonight in Ben Sheets; they're facing a very hittable pitcher in Jason

Marquis whom they pounded earlier in the season. If they're going to turn things around, tonight's the night----but they won't. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Sheets pull himself out of the game somewhere between the third and fifth innings with one of his maladies. It's become a nightmare for the Brewers and no amount of top-tier starting pitchers or desperation managerial changes are going to prevent their car crashing into the canyon as if it were being driven by Toonces the driving cat.

• Reds 7-Cardinals 2:

Tony La Russa must be ready to boil over because of his front office's failure to act and do something to try and help the team win. With the Brewers and Mets stumbling and the Wild

Card there for the taking, what would have happened had it been the Cardinals who made the bold move for Sabathia; or had they made some kind of a deal to shore up their bullpen? It's gotten to the point that La Russa is in a similar situation as his friend Lou Piniella was with the Devil Rays and asking for some help to try and keep the team in contention.
The Devil Rays management at the time tried to placate Piniella by acquiring...Randall Simon. Piniella left the team in a huff and is now closing in on his second straight playoff appearance with the Cubs. The Cardinals didn't even put forth the pretense of making such a negligible deal like for the aforementioned Simon; they literally did nothing. I wouldn't take it as any great shock if La Russa asks out of his contract to go elsewhere. I'm not sure if his contract would allow him to manage another team if he leaves with a year remaining, but that could be the genesis of this idea that La Russa would be willing to be a

GM; La Russa doesn't want to be a GM, but his contract might stipulate that he can leave for what would be seen as a promotion and a GM job would be seen as such; then he could simply name himself as manager while having someone else run the front office as his underling. Seattle might be a good spot for such a maneuver.
He has a right to be irritated as well. At his age and with his resume, does La Russa need to be banging his head into walls to try and get his front office to bring in one player to make another run at a title; hear mollifying statements that are designed to keep him quiet and are never followed through upon; and see his hard work go down the drain when things could have been vastly different? With everything he's done for the Cardinals organization, I think he's earned more than that and would be better off if he followed Piniella's lead and left for a better situation; one in which he's not going to hear one thing only to see his team do another.

One Realm In Which The Phillies Will ALWAYS Win And The Brewers Will ALWAYS Lose

• A gut check separates the Phillies from the Brewers:

The main difference between the Phillies and the Braves is that the Phillies, for all their

mouth-flapping and obvious flaws, are never going to quit; they're never going to let a small bit of adversity stand in the way of fighting to win. It was what led them past the Mets in 2007 and provided the catalyst to steamroll the Brewers this weekend and into a likely playoff spot.
The tone of the series was set on Thursday when Ben Sheets allowed five runs and nine hits in six innings and the Phillies won the game 6-3. It was as if the Brewers, knowing that they didn't have C.C. Sabathia pitching in any of the four games and already having lost with their secondary ace pitching, simply accepted the fact that they were overmatched and went through the motions knowing they were not only going to lose the series, but that the foundation of 2008 was crumbling beneath their feet. This is the fault of the manager Ned Yost and, by proxy, the front office for keeping Yost after last season and during this season.
For all of his strategic mishaps, overuse of his relievers and ill-timed ejections, Charlie

Manuel's players have never quit on him; if the Phillies take a punch, they always hit back. The Brewers on the other hand have a glass jaw; they're fine when Sabathia and Sheets are making hitters look like little leaguers; when their potent offense is piling up huge run totals or they're rolling along like a sure lock for the playoffs, but when they face any adversity, they collapse; this, like the public in-fighting and lack of hustle when things look bleak, stops directly at the manager's front desk.
The onus for this could be placed on the clubhouse leaders for the Brewers. They do have some players who are respected and well-liked by their peers like Mike Cameron, Sabathia and Jason Kendall, but if star players like Prince Fielder (who sulks and throws tantrums when things aren't going his way) are jogging out ground balls instead of trying to prevent

double plays, what are the rest of the players supposed to think? What can Cameron, Sabathia or Kendall do with Fielder other than to try and get him to take an active role as a leader and set an example by running hard to first base? There's only so much a player can do to get his teammates to behave appropriately; Derek Jeter is respected throughout the league and revered in his clubhouse, but the lack of hustle by both Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera has proven that there's only so much even Hall of Fame players can do. This is the responsibility of the manager.
Charlie Manuel has publicly benched his MVP shortstop Jimmy Rollins because of such transgressions and the rest of the team supported him without fail. What would happen if Yost said that he was benching Fielder for two games because of his attitude and lackadaisical behavior? Would they stand behind him, or would the dissension permeate the clubhouse and make the obviously poisonous teamwide attitude even worse than it is?
My guess is that Yost is being openly mocked by certain players as he tightens his already stifling grip on his team and they know that despite the fact that they're still in position to make the playoffs that they won't. They know that things are coming apart at the

seams in the clubhouse and on the field and their window is closing rapidly because they're going to lose both Sheets and Sabathia to free agency. What makes things worse is that the front office is quite probably ruing the fact that they kept Yost when they could've fired him at anytime dating back to last season, but didn't. They have to live with the decision knowing that they're unlikely to have this opportunity----a weak National League, two dominating starting pitchers and a run scoring lineup----again for quite awhile, if ever. The pieces were in place for a run at a World Series, but that's disappearing into the abyss of Yost's rage and inability to control his team. The elapsed time between Brewers playoff appearances is repeatedly mentioned in the press at 25 years; it's about to be 26 and the front office needs only to look into the mirror to understand why.

• The Barry Zito article by Pat Jordan in the NY Times sports magazine Play:
  

For anyone who hasn't seen the story, here's a link----Article----it makes Barry Zito look like a real jerk

Watch The Headlines For A Brewers Blowup

• Phillies 7-Brewers 3 (Game 1); Phillies 5-Brewers 0 (4th Inning, Game 2):

2008 will be nothing like 2007 for either the Mets or the Phillies because no matter how many games the Mets bullpen gacks up; or whether or not the Phillies are able to catch up to

the Mets, both are going to make the playoffs because the Brewers are not going to be able to navigate their way out of this tailspin.
The loss column is the most imperative number to keep track of because a game yet to be played can still be a win; a loss cannot be made up. I said before the weekend that if both the Mets and Phillies took care of business, they'd be in playoff position by Monday----Blog 9/12. If the score of the second game holds, the Phillies will be two games behind the Mets in the loss column, and tied with the

Brewers in the loss column; and the Mets will be two games ahead of the Brewers in the loss column.
If the second game stays as it is now, I would keep my eyes open for tomorrow's headlines for some kind of Brewers explosion between players; or between a player and the manager; or something. With the way they're always infighting and are essentially leaderless in the manager's office, it's not going to take much (if anything) to set something off and then they're really going to collapse on and off the field and it's going to get real ugly, real fast in Milwaukee.

• Braves 7-Mets 4:

It's better for the Mets to get out on the road and head to a locale where they've had success this year against a terrible team in Washington against the Nationals. The Mets fans are

within their rights to boo the gasoline-can wielding suspects coming out of the bullpen, but after the way Luis Ayala has been nothing short of a godsend since arriving, booing him today for one hiccup was out of line. If the series against the Nationals warrants it, I'd expect Al Reyes to get some work to see if he's able to help out as the season winds down. The two losses to the Braves were partially due to bullpen failure, but also partially due to the inability to add tack-on runs. With an extra run here and there when the opportunity presented itself, there wouldn't have been a need to worry about who was going to pitch in the late innings.

• Broncos 39-Chargers 38; a move that took BALLS beyond belief:

If a manager or coach does something that I can only look upon with awe and say, "I wouldn't have had the nerve to pull something like that," I admire it. In the

closing moments of the Broncos-Chargers game, the Broncos scored to make the score 38-37 with only the extra point standing between a likely trip to overtime for the Broncos and Chargers. Instead, Broncos coach Mike Shanahan (whom I've considered to be overrated as a coach/GM) had the audacity to try for the two-point conversion and get the win...and they made it. I don't know many coaches----from Bill Walsh, Bill Parcells, Don Shula, Jimmy Johnson or anyone else you could name----who'd pull something like that. Even though it worked, I don't know if it was logically the correct thing to do, but I have to tip my hat to Shanahan because I wouldn't have done it and it worked.

By Monday, Both The Mets And Phillies May Be Heading For The Playoffs

• Phillies 6-Brewers 3:

The one game the Brewers had to win was last night's; everything else for the rest of this

series was built on that. They had Ben Sheets going; they were facing a gutty, smart, but hittable pitcher in Jamie Moyer; and the Phillies were desperate and reeling knowing that they'd just lost two straight games to the Marlins and were in danger of falling five games behind the Mets in the loss column, which, last year aside, would have likely sealed their fate. Now it's official, the Brewers are in the midst of an implosion and they're going to miss the playoffs.
Despite the obvious flaws of the Phillies, they never quit. As was proven last year, they're going to fight until every last ounce of blood and sweat is left on the field; is the same true with a Brewers team that is taking on the same tight, petrified countenance of their manager, Ned Yost? After last night's favorable pitching matchup, the rest of the weekend is probably going to have at least two games in which the scores resemble something that would be analyzed on ESPN College GameDay instead of Baseball Tonight; and with the way the Brewers bullpen has detonated so many games, they're going to be in big trouble if it's close going past the seventh inning.
If Sheets wasn't able to hold down the Phillies lineup, what chance do the likes of Manny

Parra, Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan have in Citizens Bank Park? The Phillies pitching isn't all that much better, but with Cole Hamels going tonight, they have the advantage; and Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick aren't going to just give in to the Brewers bashers; plus this is a case where Phillies manager Charlie Manuel's quick hook and overuse of his bullpen will be an advantage because the Brewers won't be able to win a battle of the bullpens.
The Mets have a Braves team that doesn't have the manpower or wherewithal to be able to win more than one game this weekend; if both the Mets and Phillies take care of business, both are going to be ahead of the Brewers and both are going to be in great position to make the playoffs.
And what of the Brewers? They're going to have some tough questions to answer after the deadline deal for C.C. Sabathia; after they were rolling along and looking not only like a team that was going to make the playoffs, but a team that was primed to do serious damage in the

playoffs. I don't know any team that would want to have to deal with the prospect of Sabathia and Sheets in a short series as both are looking to pad their resumes to make even more money in free agency this winter. At this rate, with the Phillies and Astros right behind them and closing fast, they need their back of the rotation pitchers and powerful lineup to step up and carry them home; considering the way they're playing, it doesn't look like it's going to happen and this is to the advantage of both the Mets and Phillies, for whom the road to the playoffs may not have anything to do with one another after all.

• I got the skillz to pay the billz and Canada's Most Wanted:

I suppose I'll take it as a compliment that so many Blue Jays fans who've gotten all riled

up over my cold-blooded and accurate assessment of their team of the past and future think I'm an embittered Yankee fan. If anything's an indicator of my writing skills and an ability to stay neutral, it's that. To adjust a quote Larry David from Curb Your Enthusiasm (before it got really annoying), "I do hate myself, but it has nothing to do with being Jewish!"; I'm embittered, but it has nothing to do with being a Yankee fan; in fact, I'm a Mets fan, for which I think I have an ingrained right to be embittered. Good thing I didn't say anything about the Maple Leafs. (Be on the lookout for the man on the right, he's extremely dangerous and devastatingly good looking.)

• Governor Sarah Palin's interview with Charles Gibson:

The interview hasn't played yet, but the main points are already out in the media. The objective truth about the interview and Gov. Palin herself is that the country is running the risk

of electing as the Vice President for a 72-year-old man what amounts to a pretty version of George W. Bush from the year 2000. Charming, likable and ingratiating herself to the religious right with conservative values, references to God and vague populist talking points, Gov. Palin stays on message to a remarkable degree while clearly knowing very little in depth of what she's talking about.
Those main points----war with Russia is an option to protect Georgia; she was quoting Abraham Lincoln during that speech in her church about God and the Iraq war; she hadn't the faintest idea what the "Bush Doctrine" is and what it entails----are frightening to those that are in stunned disbelief of the idea that she's capable of taking over as the President of the United States on a moment's notice.
Does she really believe that a war with Russia, which was avoided during all those years of the Cold War, is an option while this country's military is trapped in the Middle East? Is she suggesting military action to protect a small republic that is, in truth, of little import to the United States? Does John McCain believe that?
Is she expecting the public to think that she was studying the speeches of Abraham Lincoln to find quotes when referencing God as she discussed the Iraq war?
The sheer look of panic as her brain was searching for a way to stickhandle (let's use a hockey term for the hockey mom) her way around the question without having a viable answer or even a passing knowledge of what the "Bush Doctrine" is was frightening and painful to watch.
The slogan for the McCain/Palin ticket is "Country First". Is it in the country's interest to put a 72-year-old man into the oval office with another version of George Bush as his VP? As

Barack Obama says, it's enough. Enough with the bullet points; enough with the populist speeches designed to attract the masses; enough with someone who doesn't know what they're doing and tries to pass off being able to "see Russia" from the Alaskan soil as foreign policy experience. And for those that are ready to say that she has as much experience as Obama, she doesn't. Obama has been running for president for almost two years now and, with all due respect, I find it very difficult to believe that Gov. Palin is as smart and skilled as Obama. There's a very real possibility that she'll have to step in and be president very quickly and that is something that cannot be risked.
I'm very concerned that the Obama campaign is not hitting back as hard as they should against the republican campaign strategy for fear of being labeled as "sexist". If anything should awaken the voting public of the danger of having someone with no experience whatsoever as a possible commander-in-chief, it should be the anniversary of September 11th.
Amid all the remembrances should be the scene of President Bush, sitting in that school classroom for seven long minutes after being informed of the attacks and not having the faintest idea of what to do. As much as it's been spun with varying stories of the president not

wanting to alarm the children; of deliberating what to do next; of whatever reason they give for his lack of action and look on his face of sheer confusion and panic, does this country want to run the risk of putting another person of flimsy qualifications and questionable knowledge in that position? This has to be pointed out for what it is and the democrats have to take a page from the book of the republicans and point out these hard facts that the interview Gov. Palin hammered home.
The same mistake that the Gore campaign made against Bush cannot be made again. All along, I think the Gore people looked at then-Gov. Bush and thought that the public can't be taken in by this; they can't think that the Bush name recognition, support of the republican base and his likability will mask his complete

inadequacy and unpreparedness for the job. They were outhustled; they underestimated the message of Bush as it was presented in simple and easy to understand well-articulated bullet points that were designed to attract swing voters who were sick of the Clintons. They shook their heads, shrugged their shoulders and thought, "no one's gonna buy this crap", and they lost. The Obama campaign is still in a great position, but they can't repeat the mistakes of the past by being gentlemanly, because if Hillary Clinton were on the ticket, the republicans sure wouldn't.

Overuse Of Lidge May Cost The Phillies

• Marlins 10-Phillies 8:

I know what Phillies manager Charlie Manuel was doing when he used Brad Lidge to pitch

the ninth inning last night trailing by two runs to the Marlins, but in the long run with seventeen games left and four games of ultra-importance to the Phillies playoff chances against the reeling Brewers this weekend, wouldn't it have been better to be more prudent with Lidge's workload and give him a night off in what was likely a hopeless cause?
The case to be made for using Lidge is easy. The Marlins bullpen has not been good lately and they're using a patchwork closing corps; the Phillies had Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell scheduled to bat in the bottom of the ninth and with that, they're two swings from tying the game; and Lidge isn't going to beg out of a game unless he's in agony and physically unable to perform, but what were the odds of another comeback in the bottom of the ninth trailing by two?
I also understand that J.C. Romero and Chad Durbin have been ruthlessly overworked this

season, so it was better to use the durable Lidge, but the strategy could have been manipulated better to perhaps double switch and get another inning out of Ryan Madson rather than to use Lidge when they didn't need to. He only threw seventeen pitches, but we're talking about cumulative use as the season moves along and, as brilliant as Lidge has been, the last thing the Phillies are going to need as the season winds down is to have Lidge reach back for that little bit extra and find he has nothing left to give. Even with that, the division race between the Mets and Phillies may end up as meaningless because...

• Reds 5-Brewers 4; the Brewers are collapsing:

If this season is proving anything, how great or bad a manager is at his job, a manager's importance is only realized when the season comes down to a game or two and it's talent and

performance that dictates the end result. Jim Leyland and Bobby Cox are both having forgettable seasons and Joe Maddon, whose quirky style was met with quizzical looks as his team was winning 61 and 66 games in his first two seasons, is now being feted as "innovative" and "progressive" in his treatment of his Rays now that they're heading towards the playoffs. That being said, there are two examples of how a manager's demeanor can permeate his clubhouse and result in those extra three or four wins at the end of a season that can mean the difference between playing in the playoffs or watching the playoffs on TV.
Joe Torre's calmness and resume throughout any firestorm has allowed the Dodgers to maintain their cool throughout any adversity, injury, controversy and whatever else has happened; Ned Yost's Brewers are stumbling again with talent that other teams look at, shake their heads and wonder what's going on in Milwaukee.
Even though Yost isn't really to blame for the Brewers two losses to the Reds because of any strategic gaffes, there's something about the Brewers that makes them fold whenever they're pushed. A mental toughness is lacking and no amount of power in their lineup or aces in their rotation are going to be able to account for that and keep them in contention. A team with playoff aspirations like the Brewers cannot be losing two straight games to a Reds team (that isn't as bad as they've been portrayed) but is still going with a lot of young players and is playing out the season.
I like Doug Melvin as a GM, but he signed a guy in Jeff Suppan for a lot of money when

Suppan is at his best as a back of the rotation starter who comes up big in post-season games; Suppan was awful last night. Melvin also could have fired Yost earlier in the season and replaced him with the veteran baseball man Ted Simmons; the Brewers bad start would have shielded Melving from any criticism for the move and as the Mets are proving now, sometimes just making the change in the manager's office gets everything in line. (Speaking of which, I don't care what politically correct comments he makes to the contrary, Carlos Delgado must've despised Willie Randolph.)
The four games this weekend against the Phillies are going to determine whether or not the Brewers make the playoffs and it has to be noted that C.C. Sabathia isn't scheduled to pitch in any of them. After Ben Sheets pitches the opener on Thursday, the Brewers are sending Manny Parra, Dave Bush and Suppan to pitch to that Phillies lineup; it might get ugly on and off the field for the Brewers this weekend with a lot of questions about why, since they so aggressively acquired Sabathia to go for everything now, they didn't take a long hard look at their manager and make a cold-blooded and calculating decision to bring in someone who was able to navigate the ship through the storm. They're going to be sorry if and when they sink. They're well on the way.

• Blue Jays 3-White Sox 1; Blue Jays 8-White Sox 2:

I have zero intention of buying into this Blue Jays hot streak as a portent of a leap into contention next season. If you look at their finishes in 2006 and 2007, they had similar hot

streaks (not 10-straight wins hot, but hot enough) and ended with respectable records to put forth the illusion that they're finally "turning the corner" under GM J.P. Ricciardi and I ain't buying it.
Each time, the hot streak has conveniently happened as the team had no chance of making the playoffs; each time they've looked like a team on the rise and able to overcome the infighting and injuries that happen to them every single year, but they again fall to the mediocre team they've been since Ricciardi took over. Add in that they're going to lose A.J. Burnett to free agency (that may not be all that bad a thing because I'm very wary of

injury-prone pitchers who have their career year at age 31 just as they're primed to make a big haul of cash on the open market); that every year there's some embarrassing, alibi-laden controversy (or two; or three; or five) between Ricciardi and a player (from his team and others) a reporter or whoever else, that makes them look like their operating a circus instead of a baseball team; and that they're in a division with the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays and you'll see the exact same thing happen a year from now as is happening now. It's like Groundhog Day except the ownership never seems to catch on, much to their detriment.

• A message from my Sith alter-ego:

I sense a mocking tone in the power of Darth Escribus, Lord of the Sith as on the front

page of the blogsite an ad for the new Star Wars game is popping up. Such an attitude is a horrible mistake. When my apprentice Darth Moneke arrives, she will...take care of you...

The Mets-Phillies Day/Night Doubleheader May Help The Mets

• Phillies 6-Mets 2:

With post-traumatic memories dancing in the heads of Mets fans as the team lost their second

straight game to the Phillies, there are many differences between the collapse of 2007 and what's happening now in September of 2008. Last season, the Mets had been an average (at best) team from early June until they fell apart at season's end; this season they've played like men who were released from prison since the firing of Willie Randolph. (This isn't an overt reflection on Randolph; the questions about the manager's job security were just as stifling as Randolph's and pitching coach Rick Peterson's presence.) Last season, they'd spent just about the entire campaign in first place; this season, they've gone back and forth with the Phillies since getting their house in order with manager Jerry Manuel and pitching coach Dan Warthen. Most importantly, the Mets have Johan Santana pitching the second game of tonight's doubleheader----the exact type of game he was acquired to pitch.
The one thing missing from the Mets last season was that ace who they could give the ball and say, "carry us home". With Santana and his cachet, that is no longer an issue. Even with

John Maine and Oliver Perez winning 15 games apiece last year, there wasn't that one guy that the team could count on to give them a winning performance regardless of the circumstances.
Another issue that is an advantage for the Mets is that even though they've lost the first two games of this series and seem to have forgotten their bats in Milwaukee, losing the first game of a doubleheader on Sunday and trimming the lead to one game won't be seen as the panic-stricken tragedy that it would have been with the tightly wound Randolph at the helm; with the dearth of the one guy they could count on to go to the mound and deliver the goods; and without the newspapers, talk show imbeciles and everyone else going into conniptions at the mere thought of another September swoon. This may be the most important factor of all.
Part of the reason the team collapsed so completely last season, I think, was because the players heard the whispers of the fans, talk shows and newspapers wondering when the team was going to wake up. It became a self-fulfilling prophecy and everyone, from the front office on down through the entire organization, looked to someone else to get the job done and as a result, everyone played tight and tried not to screw up instead of doing their jobs. Even as they've lost the first two games of this series, the worst case scenario is that they and the Phillies will be all even with twenty games left; that would've looked pretty good early in the season given the way they played under Randolph until he was fired.
Having the break between games and not having to answer a million questions about why

the Phillies have the hex over the Mets in September; not having to go home and sleep with the feeling of impending doom that permeated the organization last season; not having to read the newspaper accounts of another Mets September stumble before heading back onto the field, and being able to get right back out with their ace on the mound is a huge advantage for those that are still seeing the nightmare of 2007 everywhere they look.
Mets fans are inherently pessimistic and paranoid (with good reason), but if they go out tonight and get what they're paying for from Santana, the combination of no remaining games against the Phillies (unless there's a one-game playoff or they both make the playoffs) should give the entire organization and fan base some breathing room to not worry about what happened in 2007 and move forward. All the pieces are in place to put 2007 to rest once and for all and it starts on the valuable left arm of Johan Santana and is being assisted by this day-night doubleheader.

• Whither Ben Sheets?

I've gone on about wondering where Ben Sheets is going to end up after this season ad nauseam, but after last night's performance in which he dismantled the Padres I have to keep

asking: which team is going to ante up the cash on Sheets's potential and not worry about his propensity for getting hurt with various injuries to just about every single part of his body. The most important question that the interested teams (and there will be many) is how high they're willing to go to get that potential and if they're confident that he's going to be able to get out on the mound on a regular basis.
Is Sheets going to become Chris Carpenter, who overcame injury after injury with the Blue Jays, got healthy with the Cardinals and won 36 games over two years and won the Cy Young Award in one season and finished in third place the next year? Will he become Jim Palmer, who went 15-10 in his first full year in the majors during the Orioles 1966 championship season then missed most of the 1967 season with injuries; spent 1968 rehabilitating and became a three-time Cy Young Award winner and a Hall of Famer upon returning to the majors in 1969? Or is he going to be another Carl Pavano, who received a giant contract and couldn't stay healthy? (It's very interesting how Pavano is now blaming the doctors for his woes----NY

Times Article, but I digress.) It's a big commitment that a team is going to make for Sheets with a massive risk/reward.
Sheets's teammate with the Brewers, C.C. Sabathia is putting himself into position to not only steal the National League Cy Young Award from Brandon Webb in just three months of work, but to make an even larger haul than Johan Santana got from the Mets. As for Sheets, the losers in the Sabathia sweepstakes will be calling him as a backup plan and he'd be smart to wait and see where Sabathia winds up before signing anywhere. If I were an executive for one of the teams that has the money to give Sheets the $110+ million he's going to want (and get), I'd possibly be staking my job on whether or not he's able to stay healthy for the 5-7 years of his contract.
If I were advising someone like Omar Minaya or Brian Cashman (if he's still with the Yankees), my recommendation would be to take the large chunks of cash that are coming off the books and invest it in Sheets; the change in scenery and different training staffs and medical teams might keep him healthy and he's one of the best pitchers in baseball when he's able to get out on the mound. My gut instinct is to take the risk because Sheets is Hall of Fame good when he's at his best and a 2009 Mets rotation, for example, with Santana, Sheets, John Maine and Mike Pelfrey would look very intimidating as they came into town. It's a big risk, but my gut feeling is that he's going to be worth it even with his aches and pains.

• Enough already with the moaning and complaining about C.C. Sabathia's lost no-hitter:

Buster Olney linked an article in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel in which Tom Haudricourt suggests that Major League Baseball institute a fifth umpire to score the game so another incident as happened to C.C. Sabathia and the no-hitter that wasn't doesn't happen again----Article. This reminds me of the scene late in the movie Interview with the Vampire in which Lestat, the Tom Cruise character, hears a tape of Louis, the Brad Pitt character complaining

about his life as a vampire and asks interviewer Christian Slater:

Lestat: Oh Louis, Louis. Still whining Louis. Have you heard enough? I've had to listen to that for centuries.

It wasn't as if Sabathia had a no-hitter with two outs in the ninth inning and saw it snatched from his grasp by a bad call. It was a fifth inning judgment call that I've already said that I disagreed with; but what's done is done. All the Brewers have done since this happened is complain about it. They petitioned the league for a scoring change and were rejected. Now, these articles that are being written about it and it's enough. Sabathia wasn't all that bothered about it, so why can't everyone just stop whining and let it go. Can everyone move on with their lives please?
Am I alone in not wanting to hear about it anymore? A drastic change has just been made to the way umpires call the game with the installation of instant replay, are they supposed to add an umpire just so an official scorer won't be able to "steal" a no-hitter that may not have happened anyway? Baseball scoring has been done this way pretty much since the game began and a change isn't necessary because of one call that didn't go the way people with a vested interest in the outcome wanted it. I just don't want to hear about it anymore. (That being said, I might be swayed if the Brewers continue to whine, moan and complain because anything that puts a stop to this silliness is good enough for me.)

A Lesson From One Of The Best (And Most Ruthless) Executives In Sports

• Dodgers 7-Diamondbacks 0:

I'm not an advocate of rash firings unless they're warranted; nor am I in favor of someone

losing their job especially when what's occurring isn't their fault; that being said, the Arizona Diamondbacks have done everything right in trying to create a championship contender including acquisitions before and during the season; giving young prospects a chance to play; and building an overall roster that should be better than 71-69 and a half game ahead of a Dodgers team that had lost eight in a row until last weekend and can't seem to get out of their own way half the time despite splashy trades of their own. In looking at everything they've done up to this point, the Diamondbacks may have to consider taking the bold step of changing managers at this late stage of the season if they have any hope of advancing as deeply into the playoffs as they thought they would when the team was constructed.
This is not the fault of manager Bob Melvin. He generally makes the correct moves during a game and he's a likable field boss despite the criticism he receives for being too vanilla in his personality. Sometimes a change has to be made for the short term in order to achieve a goal that just isn't going to happen otherwise. The Diamondbacks may want to take a page out of

the book of one of the best and most successful executives in sports----New Jersey Devils hockey czar Lou Lamoriello.
Lamoriello operates in relative obscurity as the Devils are the second fiddle (that's being generous; it could be argued that the Devils are behind the Rangers, Islanders and Flyers in that NHL equivalent of the Bermuda Triangle of the New York metropolitan area); the negatives to that are obvious----they don't get the recognition for being as great an organization as they are; no one appreciates their three Stanley Cups; they have trouble filling their building even when they're on the way to a championship----but one of the main advantages of that obscurity is that Lamoriello can pretty much do whatever he wants and no one's going to say anything. Lamoriello treats his coaches and players as part of a machine; everyone has their value, their role and position and if they start to believe that they're too important to fit into the team structure or if something's not working, there's no vacillation; no wishy-washy hand-wringing over what to do next; Lamoriello acts sooner rather than later and doesn't look back.
Twice he's fired coaches days before the playoffs started as the team was at the top of their conference because he didn't think they were going to be able to win in the playoffs with the status quo. Once it resulted in another Stanley Cup; another time, in which Lamoriello himself took over as coach, it didn't work as they were eliminated in the second round; whether he succeeds or fails when he makes such a decision, at least he doesn't sit on his hands and worry about the public reaction when he feels the right move is to make a change. Players who want too much money or don't accept their roles are quickly dispatched; blockbuster player acquisitions occur without anyone even knowing that the Devils were involved until the last second. Everything in the organization is dedicated to one thing----winning; and they win under a budget. Lamoriello's smart and ruthless and dedicated to that one goal in his professional life----winning----which should be first and foremost with every sports executive even if in many cases, it isn't.
Of course it works to Lamoriello's advantage that he does have carte blanche with the

organization due to those three championship rings (it's a circle, he's allowed to do what he wants because he wins and he wins because he's allowed to do what he wants); and that the NHL has very little attention paid to it until the playoffs start and barely much attention then; but no matter what kind of organization he ran, I believe that Lamoriello would function in the same way----mysteriously, close to the vest, ruthlessly----and do what's best for the moment. For the Arizona Diamondbacks, they've tried everything else, perhaps it's time to set off a bomb in their clubhouse and fire the manager. Melvin is a solid guy and a pretty good manager; he was blamed unfairly for what happened when he managed the Mariners and all of Lou Piniella's and Pat Gillick's players got old at once; there would be a major uproar if they pulled the trigger on Melvin, but it's something to consider even at this late date because as things stand right now, they're well on the way to blowing a division that they should be winning easily and all of those aggressive acquisitions will be seen as a waste because they haven't worked. It may be time to do something drastic and as Lamoriello has proven, firing the head coach/manager is about as drastic as it gets, and it might even work.

• Phillies 3-Mets 0:

When Brett Myers was struggling earlier in the season and wound up back in the minor leagues to get both his arm and his head straight, it was thought that Myers had either never

completely gotten his head and body out of the rush of closing; that he was overworked last season after being thrust into that unfamiliar role; and that he needed to rediscover his fastball and get his confidence back. It's clear that Myers's problem earlier in the season, whatever it was, is gone because he was confident and determined in the dominating performance against the Mets last night and, most importantly, he had his fastball back.
Whatever the cause, Myers's fastball was short that critical few inches to make his wicked curveball effective. A devastating curveball isn't as much of a challenge for the hitters if all they have to worry about is an 88 mph fastball, which is what Myers was throwing early in the season. Last night, he was popping 93-94 which puts the hitter in the position of gearing up for the fastball and adjusting to the curve rather than waiting for the curve and knowing he's going to be able to catch up to that average fastball. I'm sure Myers still misses the rush that comes from being the closer and having every game and everyone's hopes pinned on his shoulders, but after last night and the way he's pitched since returning from the minors, he's not letting that stop him from pitching as well as he did last

night in a game the Phillies had to win.

• Reds 10-Cubs 2:

I quit gambling, but if I had one bet to make today, I'd wager a chunk of money that Cubs manager Lou Piniella is a likely candidate to get ejected and go on a base-throwing, red-faced, Lou-natic-asylum level tirade tonight in Cincinnati. His team needs to be woken up and snapped out of this malaise; flipping out and getting ejected (sometimes for no reason) is Piniella's thing. It's worked before.

• Mariners 3-Yankees 1:

As Tim Lincecum has overcome his doubters (due to his size, quirky mechanics and "stage-father") to become an All Star, there have been questions as to what the Mariners were thinking in drafting Brandon Morrow five spots ahead of Lincecum especially since

Lincecum is from Washington and pitched at Washington State. After watching Morrow handcuff the Yankees last night as he begins his transformation from the bullpen to the starting rotation, I have to say that even with the hindsight of the past two years, I'd still take Morrow over Lincecum. Morrow's fastball was in the upper 90s, his motion is clean and he just looks like he's going to be more durable over the long term than Lincecum.
The argument to ignore "tools" over performance isn't to be completely ignored, but the jury, to me, is still out on Lincecum. Listed at 5'11", he's about two or three inches shorter and that motion and his specially-designed exercises will

only be borne out in the even greater hindsight of five or six years from now; Morrow, 6'3", simply appears like he'll be able to handle a heavier workload and his fastball matches that of Lincecum. There's been righteous indignation as Lincecum has risen to All Star, Cy Young Award contender and cult hero to the undersized, but Morrow was a safer pick and if I had to choose between the two even now, I'd still take Morrow; the Mariners shouldn't be faulted for a scouting decision that took everything----size, mechanics, projectable future----into account because the final results remain to be seen.

Pavano's Weak Stuff And Other Stories

• Yankees 8-Rays 4; Pavano's stuff just ain't there:

Carl Pavano has shown some guts in coming back to try and help the Yankees in some

way over the last month and redeem the previous 3 3/4 years with the team that can only be described as disastrous and embarrassing on and off the field; that being said, his stuff just isn't there at all. His fastball is puttering in at a high of 88 and is coming in anywhere under that; his sinker isn't sinking, instead it's taking a slight lateral movement at the hitting zone; his changeup is good enough, but with a fastball that's not all that fast, the changeup loses it's effectiveness; his slider isn't doing much of anything at all. He looks like he's getting hitters out because they're either stunned that his stuff is so weak or they're too anxious and unaccustomed to a big leaguer throwing such substandard junk.
It's strange because a pitcher who comes back from Tommy John surgery tends to throw

harder than he did before, but that hasn't happened with Pavano. The only things I can surmise are that he's still building arm strength or there's something not right with him and he doesn't want to say. If this is what he's got to work with now, he's going to have trouble securing anything more next season other than a Mark Prior-type contract in which the team that signs him is going to bring Pavano to camp to see if he can give them anything. If he thinks a month of starts is going to guarantee him anything more than a short-term contract laden with incentives, he's in for a big surprise, but in looking at how he's pitching, it shouldn't be any surprise at all.

• Astros 4-Cubs 0; can the Astros pull this off?

The Astros can forget about the NL Central because eleven games is too much to make up over the final 22 games, but they're only 6 1/2 games out of the Wild Card lead and their

schedule is notoriously weak over the final month. Other than three more games with the Cubs starting September 12th, they play: the Rockies, Pirates, Reds, Marlins and Braves. The teams ahead of the Astros in the Wild Card standings, the Brewers, Cardinals and Phillies have a much tougher road.
The Brewers have ten games remaining with the Cubs and Phillies; the Phillies have those games with the Brewers, plus three with the Mets; and the Cardinals have ten with the Diamondbacks and Cubs. After all the ridicule the blazing hot Astros endured little more than a month ago for "needlessly" trading for veteran help, it's legitimately possible that they could still be alive for a playoff spot going into the last weekend with the Braves and no one other than the Astros thought that would be possible.

• Nationals 9-Phillies 7; Charlie Manuel's reliever-abuse is showing:

The wear on the tires of the Phillies entire bullpen is starting show. J.C. Romero is pitching in almost every game (much as he did last year) and looks exhausted even if he doesn't make

himself unavailable to pitch; Chad Durbin has been brilliant this season, but as he's forged that new career as a reliever, the fact that he's been a career-long starter and has never pitched in more than 36 games in a season is diminishing his performance. The other members of the Phillies bullpen----Clay Condrey, Scott Eyre, Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge----are going to feel the affects on and off the field before too long if they aren't already. (I'd be willing to be heavily that they are.)
Eyre came over from the Cubs and, after being a lefty specialist used for one or two batters at a time for the last several years, has found himself pitching multiple innings to lefties and righties; he's pitched well, but how long before the wear and tear of this sudden change causes an injury, ineffectiveness or both? Manuel can argue that it's being done out of necessity, but he still hasn't shown any

restraint in the use of his relievers from the time the season started until now and with the Phillies three games behind the Mets, they're not going to be able to give any of those pitchers any rest.
Just like last season in which the Phillies bullpen heroically and selflessly sacrificed their bodies for the good of the cause of their comeback, the pitchers aren't going to complain and say they're unable to pitch when the team needs them; but because the Phillies authored such a miraculous comeback over the Mets in 2007, it's forgotten how they flamed out in the playoffs and were swept away by the Rockies before they even

knew what happened.
Part of the reason for that was because the comeback attempt was so intense on a night-by-night basis that the playoffs was almost a letdown after they finally caught and passed the Mets; the adrenaline that was carrying them petered out; the same thing is happening now and it's because of the way Charlie Manuel handles his bullpen that the Phillies are staggering toward the finish with 22 games left. They're running on fumes with no rest stop in sight and they're in big trouble because those pitchers can only reach back so far until there's nothing left to give, and what should frighten Phillies fans is that they may have reached that point.