Beware the Rejuvenated Rays' Castoffs

The Orioles are said to be considering signing Casey Kotchman.

What they’re going to do with him is a mystery since they just signed Wilson Betemit, have Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis for first and third base. None are defensively adept at any of the positions although Reynolds occasionally makes a spectacular play to make it appear as if he’s better than he is. It’s similar to a weekend in which he’ll hit 6 home runs---many of the “ooh” and “ahh” variety in distance and hangtime to make it appear as if he’s better than he is. Then he reverts to hitting .200 and striking out every 2.6 at bats.

Kotchman is a very good defensive first baseman and had his career year at the plate for the Rays in 2011 with a slash line of .306/.378/.422 and .800 OPS.

That’s what should concern any team making a serious investment in Kotchman.

Considering the lateness of the date and that spring training is approaching along with the availability of better hitters on the market like Derrek Lee, it’s doubtful the Orioles or anyone else is going to overpay for Kotchman, but a team considering a former player for the Rays who had his best season with the Rays needs to examine history and look at the decline of Jason Bartlett, Scott Kazmir, Rafael Soriano, Akinori Iwamura and just about every scrounged screapheap salvaged detritus from their patched together bullpen who’s been used for a brief time and dispatched only to revert to the performance that led them to winding up on the scrapheap to begin with. Sometimes, as with Lance Cormier and Carlos Pena, they wind up back with the Rays.

Is Kotchman as good as he was in 2011?

History proves he’s not. Even when he was at his best with the Angels and Braves in 2007-2008, he wasn’t a force at the plate. He was useful if surrounded by a few power bats and has always been a good fielder, but teams tend to want better power production from first base than what Kotchman provided. If they can make up for it in other areas, then fine; but setting a limit on the amount of money they’re willing to pay Kotchman is a wise move.

Was the issue with his eyes that Kotchman referenced in this NY Times piece and its repair the genesis of his struggles in 2009-2010?

Clearly.

But that doesn’t make a Rays' castoff any more of a guarantee to continue the work he did with the Rays as he reestablished his value. They seem to know which way the wind is about to blow and how to judge a player and determine whether he's "figured it out" or is enjoying his career years in Tampa. That’s a reason for interested teams to look at these players with a jaundiced eye and wonder if they’re getting the pre-Rays or post-Rays player and if they’ll be overpaying to do it.

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Squandered Opportunities For The Mets

• Reds 7-Mets 2:
  

If a team squanders as many opportunities to take a lead and bust the game open as the Mets did last night, it's only a matter of time before they lose. Carlos Beltran was playing like his head was anywhere but at Great American Ballpark as he misjudged a catchable Ken Griffey Jr line drive that turned into a run scoring double and kicked a base hit into the gap as if he were imitating David Beckham to allow an insurance run to score for the Reds.
Credit is due to the Reds pitchers (especially Mike Lincoln) for wriggling out of the jams and not allowing the Mets to score with their big bashers at the plate, but this game was an example of how quickly things can turn around for a team that was streaking three days ago. During their ten game winning streak, the Mets rode great pitching from their starters and bullpen, but they also did the little things like score runners from third base with less than two outs; using outs to advance runners; taking the extra base; etc. Countless runs can be scored by doing these simple things; then a team doesn't have to hope for their pitchers to hold the opponents to less that two runs; they don't have to wait for the home run. It's what was missing from the Mets earlier in the season and what's been the main culprit of the past two losses.
One note about the Reds and mark this down: they're going to finish this season over .500; they're going to spend money in the off-season to improve and they're going to be legitimate contenders next season. They have an owner who wants to win in Bob Castellini; a smart, aggressive and successful GM in Walt Jocketty; and a manager with a strong resume (despite his detractors) in Dusty Baker.

• Orioles 11-Tigers 10:

It's hard to take the Tigers seriously as a contender when they score six runs in the first inning and their pitchers can't hold the lead. Nate Robertson has been mostly terrible this

season and only lasted into the third inning last night. The Tigers are only 7 1/2 games behind a White Sox team that has flaws of their own, but blowing games like this isn't going to help their cause in coming back.
The trade from last season that will be pointed to as a "mistake" might be the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis acquisition from the Marlins, but the real mistake was to trade the rising 22-year-old Jair Jurrjens for a fading Edgar Renteria. Cabrera's very young and will provide years of MVP-quality production for the Tigers; there's every chance that Willis, while not approaching his dominance of 2005, will be a solid pitcher again once healthy; but they

could've signed David Eckstein and gotten similar offensive production as they've gotten Renteria; they could've signed the offensively-challenged Cesar Izturis and gotten Gold Glove caliber defense and carried his bat in their powerful lineup, but they got greedy for offense and traded for Renteria. Granted, the Cabrera/Willis swap fell into GM Dave Dombrowski's lap after the Renteria trade and happened quickly, but they didn't need Renteria either way and especially for Jurrjens who's starting to look like he's going to be a star.
The Orioles have been very impressive this year after purging their

clubhouse of Les Miserables, Erik Bedard and the controversies surrounding Miguel Tejada. This could go two ways: owner Peter Angelos could prevent Andy MacPhail from clearing out more veterans because he wants to finish with as good a record as possible, or he could look at the smart moves MacPhail made in clearing out high-priced veterans and negative influences and let him continue the practice with guys like Jay Payton. Your guess is as good as mine as to what Angelos is going to do.

• Cardinals 6-Padres 5:

The Padres waited far too long to dump Randy Wolf and now they're not going to get anything of consequence for him if and when they finally do decide to move him. I don't want

to sound like a broken record, but all I keep hearing is how "bad" teams like the Reds and Royals are, but no one is whipping the Padres for their expansion-team roster and 37-61 record. The Reds and Royals have talent on their rosters and in their organizations; the Padres are awful, but you'd never know it from hearing how "smart" their organization is.
Injuries can be used as an excuse in some instances, but in the Padres case? Was Tad Iguchi going to account for a few more wins? Josh Bard? Chris Young? Edgar Gonzalez has filled in capably for Iguchi; Young couldn't be expected to provide more than his 180 innings and a 12-10 record; Bard isn't a difference-maker offensively. The team's bottom-line terrible on paper and in practice.
Did they really expect Randy Wolf to stay healthy and effective over a full season for the first time since 2003? Did they really expect Mark Prior to contribute anything other than some more derisive stories about how the mighty have fallen? Or anything other than attempted stat-compiling and apathy from the apparently disinterested Greg Maddux who

doesn't want to be traded to a contender because he's happy in San Diego despite the state of the team? Or a resurgence of the fading Trevor Hoffman? I honestly believe that they're delusional in San Diego; that they think this year is a "statistical anomaly"; that they still believe, deep down, that their team, as currently constructed will return to contention next season.
They resisted dealing the likes of Wolf earlier this season because the NL West was so terrible that they hoped to stay close to the divisional lead and somehow crawl back into contention; the leaders in the division having a record under .500 is only an advantage if the lower-rung teams win their own games. The Padres have lost 18 out of 23 and are well on their way to losing 100 games. How is it that Bud Black is still there? Or Kevin Towers? Or Paul DePodesta? Or Sandy Alderson?
The Padres are becoming the epitome of a factoid (something resembling a fact; unverified----often invented----information that is given credibility because it appeared in print).

And why isn't anyone ripping them as they deserve to be ripped for this catastrophe? The Mariners have been a punching bag and a punchline all season long, but the Padres are in a mediocre league, a terrible division and are a game and a half worse than the Mariners! Is this a case of "ignore the problem and it'll go away"? Why are the Padres being given a pass that no other organizations (most in a better position to turn things around relatively quickly) aren't?