Beware the Rejuvenated Rays' Castoffs

The Orioles are said to be considering signing Casey Kotchman.

What they’re going to do with him is a mystery since they just signed Wilson Betemit, have Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis for first and third base. None are defensively adept at any of the positions although Reynolds occasionally makes a spectacular play to make it appear as if he’s better than he is. It’s similar to a weekend in which he’ll hit 6 home runs---many of the “ooh” and “ahh” variety in distance and hangtime to make it appear as if he’s better than he is. Then he reverts to hitting .200 and striking out every 2.6 at bats.

Kotchman is a very good defensive first baseman and had his career year at the plate for the Rays in 2011 with a slash line of .306/.378/.422 and .800 OPS.

That’s what should concern any team making a serious investment in Kotchman.

Considering the lateness of the date and that spring training is approaching along with the availability of better hitters on the market like Derrek Lee, it’s doubtful the Orioles or anyone else is going to overpay for Kotchman, but a team considering a former player for the Rays who had his best season with the Rays needs to examine history and look at the decline of Jason Bartlett, Scott Kazmir, Rafael Soriano, Akinori Iwamura and just about every scrounged screapheap salvaged detritus from their patched together bullpen who’s been used for a brief time and dispatched only to revert to the performance that led them to winding up on the scrapheap to begin with. Sometimes, as with Lance Cormier and Carlos Pena, they wind up back with the Rays.

Is Kotchman as good as he was in 2011?

History proves he’s not. Even when he was at his best with the Angels and Braves in 2007-2008, he wasn’t a force at the plate. He was useful if surrounded by a few power bats and has always been a good fielder, but teams tend to want better power production from first base than what Kotchman provided. If they can make up for it in other areas, then fine; but setting a limit on the amount of money they’re willing to pay Kotchman is a wise move.

Was the issue with his eyes that Kotchman referenced in this NY Times piece and its repair the genesis of his struggles in 2009-2010?

Clearly.

But that doesn’t make a Rays' castoff any more of a guarantee to continue the work he did with the Rays as he reestablished his value. They seem to know which way the wind is about to blow and how to judge a player and determine whether he's "figured it out" or is enjoying his career years in Tampa. That’s a reason for interested teams to look at these players with a jaundiced eye and wonder if they’re getting the pre-Rays or post-Rays player and if they’ll be overpaying to do it.

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Doling Out Credit For The Rays Rapid Rise

After so many years of haplessness and embarrassment, the Rays have stunningly

clinched a playoff spot. While there was much press dedicated to the laughably naive and borderline inept new regime in Tampa----owner Stuart Sternberg; president Matthew Silverman and GM Andrew Friedman----if they're going to get the blame when

things go badly, they have to get the credit when things go well. In reality, though, how much of the sudden rise is due to the savvy of the front office? How much is due to luck? And how much is due to all those years of having the number one pick in the draft? Let's take a look at the roster and how they were acquired before running out to vote for Friedman as Executive of the Year:

• Players acquired by the previous regime of owner Vince Naimoli, Chuck LaMar:

Left Fielder Carl Crawford----selected in the second round of the 1999 draft.

Center Fielder B.J. Upton----selected in the first round of hte 2002 draft.
DH/OF Jonny Gomes----selected in the 18th round of the 2001 draft.
OF Rocco Baldelli----selected in the first round of the 2000 draft.
RHP James Shields----selected in the 16th round of the 2000 draft.
RHP Andy Sonnanstine----selected in the 13th round of the 2004 draft.
LHP Scott Kazmir----acquired from the New York Mets in July, 2004.
RHP Jason Hammel----selected in the 10th round of the 2002 draft.

• Players acquired by the new regime through smart moves:

Catcher Dioner Navarro----acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in June, 2006.
Shortstop Jason Bartlett----acquired from the Minnesota Twins in November, 2007.
RHP Matt Garza----acquired from the Minnesota Twins in November, 2007.

OF Gabe Gross----acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers in April, 2008.
DH Cliff Floyd----signed as a free agent in December, 2007.
INF Willy Aybar----acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in June, 2006.
RHP Edwin Jackson----acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in January, 2006.
INF Ben Zobrist----acquired from the Houston Astros in July, 2006.
RHP Dan Wheeler----acquired from the Houston Astros in July, 2007.
LHP J.P. Howell----acquired from the Kanas City Royals in June, 2006.
RHP Chad Bradford----acquired from the Baltimore Orioles in August, 2008.
LHP Trever Miller----signed as a free agent in February, 2008.

• Players acquired and successful through pure luck and high draft picks:

3B Evan Longoria----drafted in the first round of the 2006 draft.
RHP Troy Percival----signed as a free agent in November, 2006.

1B Carlos Pena----signed as a free agent in February, 2007.
2B Akinori Iwamura----purchased from Japan in December, 2006.
OF/INF/DH Eric Hinske----signed to minor league contract in February, 2008.
RHP Grant Balfour----acquired from Milwaukee Brewers in June, 2007.

With all due respect to what they've accomplished, this success isn't a function of manager Joe Maddon suddenly going from a guy who was too smart and too quirky for his own good and had a long run working for the Angels in various capacities; nor does it have anything to do with the new age, sabermetrics, and fresh eyes of the baseball neophytes who took over the team in 2005. It has to do with building from what was already there; having some luck with a few journeymen; and making obvious draft picks that a monkey could've picked out of a hat. Guys like Iwamura, Balfour, Hinske and Pena were guys who were given away and/or picked up because of their availability at a cheap price. Iwamura was a guy from Japan they probably hadn't the faintest idea about. The journeyman Pena was

almost released at the end of spring training in 2007 and had an MVP quality year. Balfour had a fastball and little else. Hinske has bounced from team-to-team as a guy who could provide some pop in a part-time role. Percival is injury-prone and they're lucky they've gotten as much as they have from him. Much of this success has been due to everything falling into place at once and (I believe) that veteran baseball man Gerry Hunsicker is finally having his suggestions implemented.
The Rays are going to go one of two ways in the playoffs. They're either going to go in without pretense and play with a carefree attitude not realizing the gravity of what they're up against going from where they were last season to where they are now; before they know it, they'll steamroll whoever's in front of them and just keep winning. Or they're going to get to the playoffs, be overwhelmed and get blasted out before they know what's happening.
The front office, manager, coaches and players can bask in what they've done for the next week----they deserve it----but before becoming too impressed with themselves as having been "proven" right, they'd better realize that there was a lot of uncontrollable aspects to this story that had nothing to do with intelligence and a lot to do with pure luck.

An Idea For A Yankees Reality Show During The Postseason; A Note For Chris Lincecum

• Since they're not going to be playing this October, maybe there's a way to keep the Yankees in the public eye:

In general, I can't stand reality shows; the only ones I watch are Ramsay's Kitchen Nightmares or whatever my fiancee watches that I happen to catch a glimpse of out of the

corner of my eye while doing something creative and intelligent that I'm benevolent enough to share with the townspeople. That being said, I have an idea that will keep the Yankees in the spotlight this October and that is having cameras follow the principal players in former manager Joe Torre's departure as they watch him managing the Dodgers in the playoffs. It could work and it could work BIG!!!
Think about it. What kind of reactions would Randy Levine, Hank Steinbrenner, Hal Steinbrenner, Felix Lopez (they could film him taking care of the lawns on the fields in Tampa) and even Brian Cashman elicit as the Yankees are cleaning out their stadium without any post-season revenue and Torre simultaneously has his new team receiving the national exposure and is cementing his

reputation as a "wizened baseball genius" with his thirteenth straight post-season appearance? It was Levine and the Steinbrenners who wanted Torre out and Cashman didn't go out of his way to save his longtime partner, so why not give them a forum to vent as their decision, in the short-term at least, looks horrendous?
They could even extend the coverage to broadcaster Michael Kay, who did the equivalent of dumping on Torre's Yankee managerial grave only after the manager was gone indicating some vague sense of protectiveness over the Yankees organization by not saying what he really felt about Torre over those long years as if that was part his responsibility as a supposedly "unbiased" broadcaster.
It would be even better for the show if the Dodgers had to play the Mets at some point during the playoffs, so those that are embittered enough to wish ill-will on Torre and loathe the idea that the Mets are still playing and the Yankees aren't would have to make a choice

between rooting for their former manager or rooting for the Mets or even at some point having to root for the Red Sox. Just imagine...
I'm half-kidding about this, but there is a point. While I'm sure that the majority of the Yankees organization wishes Torre nothing but the best, you can't tell me that it's not going to make those that pushed him out the door crazy if he coaxes the Dodgers into the playoffs after their handpicked successor, Joe Girardi, had such a struggle in his first season as the manager; you can't tell me that many of the players still in that clubhouse who fondly remember Torre's handling of everything inherent with the job of managing that team don't miss him and wish he were still there.
I'm trying to imagine the irony of the Yankees hierarchy sitting in their offices watching the

playoffs in either the NLDS game five or NLCS game seven and chanting, "Let's Go Mets!!" over and over again so they don't have to hear about Joe Torre managing in another World Series with the Dodgers while the Yankees are plotting a way to overcome the embarrassment of a $210 million payroll that finished in fourth place. After everything that happened, it would be kind of appropriate...and a ratings winner!!!

• Chris Lincecum should strike now and write a book about his son Tim's workout regimen:

With the number of blog hits I get from people looking for information about Tim Lincecum's

workout, mechanics and stretching program, Chris Lincecum should write a book about how he taught his son to pitch. I've already advised those that end up here looking for information not to follow advice they find on the internet without truly understanding what they're doing----Blog 8/31, but they're still searching for it and doing so at their own peril. There's a market for such a guide and he should get it out there while his son is still healthy and it's such a hot topic.

• Rays 4-Red Sox 2:

Here's something I don't quite understand, Troy Percival was removed from the game because his back tightened up from all the warming up and sitting down throughout the game; but if he wasn't feeling right, why was he well enough to start the bottom of the fourteenth inning, but suddenly not well enough after he'd loaded the bases with nobody out and needed to be replaced because of the injury?

• Giants 4-Diamondbacks 3:

I generally don't question pitch selection unless there's an egregious and obvious error; many times, the pitch is the right one, but is in the wrong location; but after the latest Diamondbacks loss, I

have to wonder what catcher Miguel Montero was thinking in calling for closer Brandon Lyon to throw a high fastball instead of another curveball to Giants utilityman Eugenio Velez with two outs, two strikes, two runners on base and a one-run lead.
Maybe the Diamondbacks scouting reports said that Velez was vulnerable to a high, hard fastball and Lyon does throw in the upper nineties, but Velez had also looked clueless on two curveballs thrown by Lyon; Montero called for the high fastball; exaggerated the call by making a rising motion with his catcher's mitt; and was only in a half-squat because he wanted the pitch so high. Lyon made the pitch and Velez ripped it into the gap to score the tying and winning runs and send the Diamondbacks spiraling out of San Francisco.
And where was Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin during all of this? During his playing

career, Melvin was a defensively minded catcher who only lasted in the majors as long as he did (ten years) because of his defense and handling of pitchers; doesn't he see what's happening on the field and let his catcher know what he should be doing not just based on scouting reports, but by observation? I guarantee if Lyon had thrown a hard curve in the dirt, Velez would've struck out; but he threw a fastball up in Velez's eyes and the results are there for all to see, especially for a Diamondbacks team in full and apparently unstoppable free-fall.

• Heads must roll in San Diego for the good of the organization:

Buster Olney linked an article yesterday in which Padres GM Kevin Towers wouldn't guarantee manager Bud Black's return next season----Article. It would be of infinite arrogance and a total lack of interest in the remaining fans of the team if no one took the fall for this

soon-to-be 100 loss disaster, but should Black be the one to take the blame and pay the price?
The Padres, a Moneyball team led by their team president Sandy Alderson, install the manager and instruct him on just about every aspect of his handling of the team and pay him a relatively meager salary in comparison to other organizations. Black's done a bad job this year, there's no question about that; but look at their roster. With the lack of power that Black has is an implied lack of responsibility. If he doesn't get credit for the wins, then he shouldn't get the blame for the losses either.
I'm convinced the Padres are arrogant enough to move forward with the same crew that created this mess, but they're not that stupid (I don't think) that they'll move forward without doing something to placate an angry fan base and let them know that they're making a move even if said move isn't going to make much of a difference one way or the other. Heads are going to roll in San Diego; the question is if they're going to be the right heads; if they're sacrificing Black and no one else, then it would be little more than a sham to deflect blame from the real culprits who spawned this woeful and hapless organization into their current state, most prominently team president Sandy Alderson.

In A Daze, In A Malaise, The Tampa Bay Rays

• Red Sox 3-Rays 0:

The Rays are staggering and stumbling toward the finish as teams who've had a smooth

season-long ride sometimes do; occasionally it costs them, occasionally it doesn't. I don't see this sudden rash of losing as affecting the team one way or the other once the playoffs start. Right now, it looks like the Red Sox are going to overtake them for the division, but all that's going to do is change the matchups in the first round. Simply because a team has an awful close to their season doesn't mean they're going to continue that in the playoffs.
The Tigers and Cardinals of 2006 looked like expansion teams over the last month of that season and both wound up in the World Series; once the playoff spot is clinched (and the lead the Rays built up will ensure they're going to make the playoffs no matter how many more games they lose), they should relax and get back to playing as well as they did earlier this season. Given the lead they built up, some adversity and guidance from the leaders in the clubhouse, how to overcome it and return to the solid baseball that got them into this position in the first place isn't a bad thing whether or not they win the division title; making the playoffs is the most important thing and the Rays have that sewn up.

• Angels 12-Yankees 1:

The statements uttered above about the Rays may not have been so clear cut had the

Yankees and manager Joe Girardi acted more quickly to prevent Darrell Rasner from blowing the game up last Thursday----Blog 9/5. It would be interesting to see what position the Rays would be in and how much panic would be going on if they were in the midst of a seven game losing streak.
The scuffle between the Yankees and Angels last night looked like it stemmed more from frustration on the part of the Yankees than any real animosity between the teams; it's a bad sign that the benches cleared and the Yankees, instead of getting fired up and playing better, looked like they packed everything in and let the Angels blow them out afterwards.
Hank Steinbrenner was quoted yesterday as saying that Girardi will be back next season----ESPN Story----but I don't think that's as guaranteed as the Baby Boss implies in his statement. What happens if the Yankees collapse completely over the final eighteen games and go 6-12 or somewhere in that area and end the season at 82-80? It's seen as almost a sure thing that Brian Cashman returns, but what happens if the Washington Nationals job opens up and the Philadelphia Phillies job is offered to him and he decides on his own to abandon ship? It's likely that the Yankees would promote from within with Damon Oppenheimer to replace Cashman, but if they go elsewhere for a replacement, what if the new GM doesn't want Girardi?
If George Steinbrenner were still running things, there's no question what the end result of

this season would be; neither Cashman nor Girardi would return and the money coming off the books with the departing free agents Jason Giambi, Carl Pavano, et al would be going into the pockets of C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira. People mistake Joe Torre's unprecedentedly long reign as Yankees manager as evidence that the Boss mellowed in his old age; maybe he was slightly more patient than he would have been fifteen-to-twenty years earlier, but Torre survived for one reason----he kept winning the World Series; other than that, he would have joined the long list of Yankee managers who were fired with or without their success and loyalty to the organization.
It's conveniently forgotten that Torre was days (perhaps hours) away from being fired in 1998 when the team started out at 1-4; he was able to right the ship in time to save himself and make history with a team that is widely regarded as one of the best in baseball history. Will Girardi be back next season? I'd say probably, but it's not a definite thing because if Hank gets angry enough and realizes that his bluster and threats are met with widespread skepticism and outright ridicule, he might just turn around and fire Girardi. It's at least in the realm of possibility.

• Billy Wagner out for the rest of 2008, 2009 and perhaps for his career:

Here's one thing I don't understand about this diagnosis, did he tear the ligament while he was pitching that simulated game on Sunday, or was it already an undiagnosed tear? And if

it was already torn, why did it take until Monday to diagnose it after he'd seen all of those doctors to try and find out what was wrong initially? That's neither here nor there I suppose, because it doesn't sound like rest and rehab were going to do much good; if the ligament was going to go, it was going to go. Wagner throws very, very hard and has been durable for much of his career, so it's no surprise that he's got a serious arm injury as his career winds down. The thing the Mets now have to decide is what to do about a closer for 2009.
For 2008, they're in the same position they were before Wagner was officially out for the season. I don't think they were expecting him back when he first went on the disabled list and were looking at it as a bonus is he was going to be able to return. Luis Ayala is going to close for the rest of this season as long as he's getting the job done and I have no problem with that. Ayala has handled the pressure, he throws strikes and has very good stuff. There are voices in the media, notably Mike Francesa on WFAN, who are implying that the Mets are walking the tightrope this season with Ayala, but in order to prove his point, he's twisting reality to suit himself. On Sunday for example, Ayala gave up a run and it was seen to be a struggle for him to record the final three outs against the Phillies in the Mets 6-3 win. Looking at the box score and taking the situation out of context makes it appear that way, but it's not the case.
Ayala did give up a deep drive to Andy Tracy that Endy Chavez caught by the left field wall; and he gave up a run, but the two hits he allowed traveled about a combined total of 75 feet with swinging bunts by Shane Victorino and Matt Stairs; they were lucky hits and no reflection on how well or poorly Ayala might have been pitching. From what I can see, Ayala is pitching very well and is handling the job better than anyone else the Mets have right now.
As for next year, the immediate speculation will center on the possibility of signing the impending free agent Francisco Rodriguez from the Angels or trading for Huston Street of the

Athletics. I would not pony up the $60-70 million it's going to require to get Rodriguez. As gaudy as K-Rod's stats are, he walks a lot of hitters; has a stressful, over-the-top motion and history has proven that importing big money closers is a wasted effort much of the time. While I don't believe the closer-by-committee strategy can work in today's game, I do believe that teams can develop a closer of their own inexpensively. I wouldn't touch Street either given how shaky he's been and the concern about his health; plus Athletics boss Billy Beane is like a predator waiting for a team like the Mets to panic if they look like they're desperate to make a splash and bring in a recognizable name.
What I would do is sign a veteran stopgap like Todd Jones or keep Al Reyes just in case the designated closer falters. If they try to move forward with Ayala or use one of their youngsters like Eddie Kunz or Robert Parnell, then this is the correct strategy; I would also seriously consider shifting John Maine into the role next year. Spending more money or prospects on a different closer would be a big mistake because there are other viable options that would work just as well, if not better.

• How does this affect Wagner's Hall of Fame candidacy?

This doesn't affect Wagner's candidacy at all because he wasn't getting in one way or the other. Rob Neyer wrote this in his blog yesterday:

And what of Wagner? This year he's been just about as good as ever, when he's been able to pitch. But how good will he be in 2010? I think he'll be pretty good. John Smoltz certainly was, when he came back. But Smoltz was only 34, and Wagner will turn 39 in 2010. Even if he's pretty good, we can't assume he'll be great. Which I'm afraid puts a real damper on his Hall of Fame candidacy.

Billy Wagner is not a Hall of Famer. Hall of Fame voters elect closers under

protest to begin with. If the truly great closers of yesteryear like Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage and Rollie Fingers had to wait for election, what would it say about a pretty good, but not great closer like Billy Wagner if he were even to receive serious consideration? In today's era, Dennis Eckersley was the first of the "one-inning save" closers who got in, but that's in part because he won a load of hardware as a closer (Cy Young Award, MVP, ALCS MVP); was a top six finisher in the Cy Young/MVP voting three other times; and was also a great starting pitcher early in his career. Mariano Rivera will get in on the first ballot because of the championship teams for whom he was an indispensable linchpin, but as for the others, it's a big question mark.
Trevor Hoffman is often referred to as a "future Hall of Famer", but I'm not so sure. I would have to think long and hard about voting for Hoffman because he has no hardware, has struggled in big games; he has finished in the top six of Cy Young voting four times (twice coming

in second). Hoffman has a better shot than Wagner does, but if these closers get in, it opens up a bunch of other names that would have a legitimate argument for their own induction. Those guys, including names like John Franco and Lee Smith, are not Hall of Famers. And Franco has something that Wagner doesn't since he recorded a huge save in the playoffs by striking out Barry Bonds as the winning run at the plate in game two of the 2000 NLDS. Wagner has failed miserably in big situations time after time. This injury and the possible end to Wagner's career doesn't hurt or help his candidacy because he ain't gettin' in either way.

• Reds 5-Brewers 4:

Strategically, there's no way to blame Brewers manager Ned Yost for this loss. He could

have left starter Dave Bush in to pitch the ninth given how shaky the Brewers bullpen has been; how well Bush pitched; and that Bush had only thrown 99 pitches, but Salomon Torres has been mostly reliable as the Brewers closer; there was no reason to think he wouldn't be able to hold a two run lead.
That being said, the Brewers are gagging again as the season winds down and it is very possible that neither the Mets nor Phillies are going to be left out in the cold in this year's playoff race because the Brewers are a likely candidate to collapse down the stretch. It's indicative of Yost's tightness that after Torres was hit with Corey Patterson's line drive and Yost ventured onto the field to watch Torres make a couple of warm up tosses to make sure he was okay, Yost's jaw muscles were contracting with such ferocity that he looked like he might spontaneously combust right there on the field.
Yost is eerily similar to another tightly wound manager whom the players tolerated and eventually mutinied against, former Astros and Angels manager Terry Collins. Off the field, Collins is said to be a very nice guy, but his tempestuous nature wore on the veterans in both of his

managerial stops and frightened the young players to the point that they were petrified to make a mistake. He was moderately successful because he had some talent to work with, but his teams were winning in spite of him and not because of him. In both of Collins's managerial stops, the players let management know that enough was enough with him and his temper. In his case, as with Yost's, a change was needed for the talented teams to make it to the next level from potential contender to true contender. If the supremely talented Brewers falter again, it will be partially because of their bullpen, but predominately because of their manager and a change is going to have to be made to someone more temperate if they want to win when it counts.

Who Would've Thought In March...

• Who would've thought that by August 21, these things would've happened:
  

That the Tampa Bay Rays would be fighting for the best record in baseball and be ten games ahead of the Yankees.
That Manny Ramirez would finally aggravate the Red Sox to the point where they decided to get him out of town once and for all and pay his salary to leave.

That the Yankees would undergo such a rough transition with a

new manager in Joe Girardi (who still appears to have a lot to learn) and that their young starters would be injured and terrible, respectively. (Actually, someone called the Ian Kennedy disaster----meeeeeeeeee!!!)
That the Orioles, having cleared out their veterans and started a legit rebuilding project, would be flirting with .500 and playing very respectably.
That the Minnesota Twins, sans Johan Santana and Torii Hunter and with a patchwork lineup, would be fighting for first place.
That the Detroit Tigers would become the latest version of The Worst Team Money Could Buy?
That after coming within one win of the World Series, the Cleveland Indians would stumble

badly enough to clear out most of their veterans and start another rebuilding project.
That Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley would post such massive offensive numbers and that Ian Kinsler would even get himself into the

conversation for MVP.
That the Seattle Mariners would see everything go wrong far beyond a worst case scenario; Stephen King couldn't come up with a series of nightmares as disastrous as the Mariners 2008 season.
That Mike Pelfrey of the Mets would develop this quickly to become a top young starter in the National League and win a probable 15-16 games.
That Ryan Howard would start morphing into a kind, gentle version of Dave Kingman and that his numbers would tumble so rapidly; and that reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins's play wouldn't live up to his mouth.

That the historically durable Tom Glavine and John Smoltz would both be lost for the season; the Braves pitching staff so top-to-bottom rotten; and that they'd be sellers instead of buyers at mid-season starting a rebuilding project.
That the Marlins would be in contention spending less money on their entire roster than Alex Rodriguez makes all season.
That the Brewers would go for broke so completely by dealing for C.C. Sabathia, who they have no chance of keeping after the season.
That even Tony La Russa, baseball's resident genius, would be able to keep the Cardinals patchwork and bargain basement roster (aside from Albert Pujols) in contention this long, especially without a closer.

That Ken Griffey Jr would allow the Reds to trade him.
That the Diamondbacks, with their excellent on-paper roster; dual-headed Cy Young Award contenders in Brandon Webb and Dan Haren; a resurgent Randy Johnson; and solid mid-season acquisitions, would be so relentlessly and unexplainably inconsistent.
That the Dodgers would acquire two future Hall of Famers for almost nothing within three weeks of each other in Manny Ramirez and Greg Maddux.
That the Padres would be so poisonously bad and that their arrogance and cheapness would permeate their organization to become almost hopeless.

These surprises----among many, many more----prove that no matter how one makes their

predictions, based on numbers or observation, there's no way to know what's going to happen in a season; no way to judge what's going to work and what isn't. The only thing to do is to watch and learn and try not to make the same mistakes again. If anything, this season is a prime indicator of why they play the games on the field rather than in a room with a bunch of nerds alternating between their stats and World of Warcraft.

The Increased Stress-Level From Watching The Mets

• Mets 5-Padres 3:

I don't know if there's a team in major league baseball that's more aggravating to watch than the New York Mets. No lead is ever safe especially with the injuries and trouble they're

having scoring runs and, with last season's epic collapse still such a fresh wound, there's an aspect of having to change channels or cover one's eyes to avoid even the possibility of a new, innovative way to lose.
In this most recent series alone the Mets, playing a dead team in the San Diego Padres, won two of three games like a boxer ahead on points and staying away just to preserve victory. On Tuesday it took three relievers to fill injured closer Billy Wagner's increasingly unbooable shoes and somehow turn a 6-2 lead into a 6-5 win. On Thursday, the bullpen blew another of Johan Santana's wins and had to wriggle out of a bases loaded, no-out situation in the eighth inning to keep the lead; then in the ninth, Scott Schoeneweis (whose forte is supposed to be dealing with lefties and who I said a few days ago should be made into the interim closer with Wagner out) gave up a game-tying homer to a lefty batter in Jody Gerut. In the bottom of the inning, Endy Chavez led off with a

single, then Jose Reyes popped a bunt up to the pitcher. It took David Wright's game-winning homer to prevent extra innings against a team that should be used as a punching bag instead of another reason for a trip to the cardiologist.
Before he passed away, the father of former NFL quarterback Vinny Testaverde was unable to watch the games because he had a bad heart and got too excited, endangering his health. I get the same idea with most of the Mets games----win or lose----except they're not exacerbating someone's heart problem, they're causing it.

• Good move----Rays acquire Bradford; useless move----Phillies acquire Eyre:

The Rays acquisition of Chad Bradford from the Orioles is an excellent move to augment an already strong bullpen for the Rays. Bradford is a well-liked, calm, experienced veteran who

throws strikes with a funky submarine style of pitching and can still get out lefties if necessary. What this also does is add another dimension of diversity to the Rays bullpen. Wave after wave of different pitchers can be thrown at an opponent from Bradford and his quirky motion and minimal velocity; to the flamethrowing Grant Balfour; to the lefty J.P. Howell; to the sliders of Dan Wheeler; and the experience and meanness of closer Troy Percival. The Rays are serious about winning while they have the opening.
On the other side of the coin is the Phillies acquisition of Scott Eyre. Not only has Eyre been just awful this year, but what does it say that a team in first place like the Cubs is dealing a veteran, lefty relief pitcher to a team that they might have to face in the playoffs? While it's true that Eyre is a free agent at the end of the season, has been okay against lefties and a change sometimes awakens veterans, the Phillies also gave up a right-handed pitcher who looks like he has some ability in minor leaguer Brian Schlitter. Schlitter has 53 strikeouts in 44 innings for Clearwater in the Florida State League.
I'm wondering if the Phillies ownership is keeping tabs on what

outgoing GM Pat Gillick is doing to try and win right now because from the deals he's made for the likes of Joe Blanton and now Eyre, it looks like he's not at all hesitant to gut the farm system of remaining prospects to win now and the team isn't even that much better because of it. While Gillick isn't a kamikaze-type GM, he may be allowing the fact that he's leaving after this season to cloud his usually solid judgment. If that's the case, the organization's going to have problems in the future with this go-for-broke mentality especially since they're only getting mediocre veterans in return.

• Gauging the future of two of the worst teams in baseball:

I'm through waiting for the Padres to get a similar media-roasting as the Mariners have gotten this year even though they're in worse shape; but let's look at which team is going to have a better chance to jump into contention quickly.
As bad as the Mariners have been, their future is not dire. They have the goods to jump back into respectability and even contention as early as next season if they don't panic and

do stupid things to appease critics. They need a power-hitting first baseman and may need to clear out some players whose paycheck doesn't match their production (Ichiro), but other than that, they have the one thing any contending team is going to need----pitching.
Felix Hernandez is only 22 and will be a star. Les Miserables, Erik Bedard has been a disaster, but to dump him for pennies on the dollar would make no sense for the Mariners after what they gave up to get him; he also has one thing in his favor that would indicate he's going to stay healthy in 2009 and have a big year: impending free agency. Carlos Silva can't be as bad next year as he's been this year and is still a solid back of the rotation starter; I think he's been greatly affected by the poisonous atmosphere in the Mariners clubhouse and as that improves, so will Silva. They're also making Brandon Morrow into a starting pitcher and if he can win 10-12 games next year, they've got a solid rotation. Their bullpen will still be anchored by J.J. Putz, who isn't as great as he was in 2007, but is still a top-echelon closer. If they improve the lineup and clear out some disinterested veterans, they could be pretty good next year.
What do the Padres have to look forward to for the future? Greg Maddux? Trevor Hoffman? Jody Gerut? Scott Hairston? They have an MVP candidate in Adrian Gonzalez; there are some solid youngsters in San Diego like Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley; but Chris Young can't be counted on to stay healthy and deliver more than 10-12 wins and 150-180 innings; Heath Bell will probably be a decent closer in replacing Hoffman, but is leveling off after his brilliant work last season. And Jake Peavy is going to get hurt.

The main differences between the two organizations is that the Mariners saw that what they were doing wasn't working and are going to bring in a new GM/manager combination next season. If the manager, as rumored, is going to be Bobby Valentine, then they're going to get better and get better fast. The Padres don't appear prepared to change the road they're on by getting rid of anyone; they appear intent on moving forward as they have with downsliding veterans and journeymen. And why shouldn't they? They're not getting any of the deserved mocking and criticism that the Mariners are getting, so the pressure isn't there to change even if, on the whole, their organization is in worse shape with little hope for the future.

• A note on Brett Favre:

Is it just me, or is there anyone else out there thinking that Brett Fav...ruh is regretting coming out of retirement to go and play for the Jets? (The following YouTube clip isn't really relevant to the above statement, but I'm just seeing if I can link a video into my blogs. Thanks to the Fulbright Scholar and his step-by-step instructions, the attempt isn't ending with me flinging my fiancee's laptop against a wall.)

Does Josh Hamilton Deserve The Applause?

Years ago, Mike Tyson appeared at a British awards show and was greeted with an extended standing ovation as if he'd gone to the tribal areas of Afghanistan/Pakistan and

personally killed Osama Bin Laden while simultaneously negotiating a peace settlement between the Israelis and the Palestinians and, while on leave, stopped the genocide in Darfur. The reality of the matter is that if Tyson weren't a famous boxer and was merely the misanthropic, antisocial deviant he was before (and after) his talent for boxing was discovered, 99% of the people in the audience at that awards show would have crossed the street in a panic if they saw him coming toward them. I'm not equating Josh Hamilton with Tyson, but the accolades Hamilton is receiving are in the same ballpark as that unfathomable standing ovation.
What, other than finally making use of a talent so rare, has Hamilton done to warrant being treated so reverently? I completely understand that the applause is for the recovery and not

the addiction; I completely understand that Hamilton's comeback is reason for others to see him as an example of rehabilitation because I'm sure many have either experienced Hamilton's problems firsthand or through family members; but it's getting a little out of control with the relentless promotion of Hamilton as someone to be admired because he was able to overcome addictions to cocaine, crack and alcohol and make use of his once-in-a-lifetime talent. And it's not as if his recovery is complete, end of story; he's only been clean for two and a half years. If I were the Rangers, I wouldn't even consider signing him to a long-term deal until it's absolutely necessary; and I wouldn't be standing and cheering for him as lustfully as the fans everywhere are now; and I wouldn't be writing such romantically-themed stories of redemption before a sufficient amount of time has passed to be able to state with confidence that he's going to be able to maintain his sobriety and on-field performance.
With Mike Tyson, people put up with his outside the ring issues because he still had

something that they could use. When he was younger, he still had that boxing ability that made him so wealthy; as he aged and got into more and more trouble, his mere image sold tickets as more of a sideshow freak than a champion. People didn't want to see him fight; they wanted to see him get into a brawl at a press conference; scream and attack people like a maniac; do something outrageous or take a brutal beating in the ring. Hamilton has been with four organizations in the past two years and not one of them was interested in Hamilton because they were concerned about him as a human being or because they were running a halfway house.
The Rays dumped him because they didn't want to protect such a player on their 40-man roster; the Cubs drafted him in the Rule 5 draft in a prearranged deal to send him to the Reds and make their organization a quick $50,000; the Reds wanted to take a chance on his talent; and the Rangers needed a center fielder after their other options fell through. If his skills had eroded due to the layoffs and self-abuse, Hamilton wouldn't have been an All Star; he would've been bouncing from organization to organization trying to recover what it was that he lost. That his gifts are still present is the main reason he's still in the big leagues and flourishing. It's not a question of "helping the fellow man" on the part of the Rangers or anyone else; it's a mutually beneficial arrangement. Hamilton can still play, so he's in the big leagues; the Rangers, Reds and Cubs had some use for him, so they benefited from it.
Hamilton can be an inspiration; he can be an example of what's lost by addiction and what's gained by faith and recovery; but to idolize him after such a brief time sober (with

relatively few valleys) is jumping the gun a bit. It's also a little out of line to be feting Josh Hamilton for getting himself clean when there are so

many players----Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, David Wright----who comport themselves in such a classy and positive way on and off the field and are basically expected to behave correctly and receive no credit for it; or players who've made the most of limited ability----David Eckstein----and didn't have the option of wasting years of their careers with out-of-control behaviors and expect to be given chance after chance. If he stays clean for an extended period of time, then Hamilton should receive a fair amount of credit; but to me, that time hasn't elapsed and these "inspiring stories" are premature for a player and person for whom "one day at a time" couldn't be a more apt description.

An Interesting Memory About Bobby Murcer

• Bobby Murcer as an unintended witness:

One thing that sticks in my mind about Bobby Murcer was the incident in which he was unwillingly thrust into a position of explaining what he saw when John Rocker confronted the

reporter for Sports Illustrated, Jeff Pearlman, who had written the article that began Rocker's downfall----NY Times Article 6/6/2000. As Rocker got into Pearlman's face and began screaming at him, Murcer happened to be walking to the Braves clubhouse to pay a visit to his former Yankees teammate and Braves manager Bobby Cox. Later when discussing it, Murcer seemed completely bewildered at Rocker's behavior; bear in mind that Murcer had played for Billy Martin, and with Reggie Jackson, Lou Piniella, Thurman Munson and Dave Kingman, who either had the potential to be, shall we say, difficult and/or quirky with reporters. I can only imagine what Murcer said to Cox when he got to his office, but my guess is it was something to the tune of, "What the hell's wrong with that guy?", to which Cox probably shook his head in disgust.

• Indians 8-Rays 4:

Today's game is very important for the Rays to win. They have their supposed ace on the mound in All Star Scott Kazmir; they're reeling from six straight losses and are probably

beginning to doubt themselves even if they don't admit it; they don't want to enter a three-day break having lost seven in a row; they're facing a pitcher in Jeremy Sowers who's been horrendous this year; and the Indians are probably going to want to get this game over as quickly as possible to put their disastrous first half behind them, and because of that they'll be hacking away at anything close to the strike zone.
This game is going to be a test for the Rays from their manager on down. I'm still not sold on Joe Maddon and his unique, new-age way of

running his team and if he's unable to steer the Rays ship through this crisis, the team might have to seriously consider finding someone else in the future. (They're not going to do it unless the team completely collapses, but it's something to think about.) It's a perfect day for Kazmir to rack up a huge strikeout game and prove himself to be the legitimate star his potential indicates he can be. He should have some runs to work with and everything is working in his favor to portray that image; if he doesn't, the Rays could be in trouble.

• Aaron Harang goes on the disabled list with a strained forearm:

I've defended Dusty Baker's handling of his pitchers when he was blamed for the injuries to Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, but I have no defense for Aaron Harang being allowed to pitch on July 8th. Harang's start had been pushed back because of his forearm pain and now he's on the disabled list for the same problem. Reds GM Walt Jocketty is a smart guy; Baker's a smart guy; why risk injuring the pitcher worse by putting him out on the mound? I keep hearing how "bad" the Reds are, but they're 46-49 and if Harang's record were 8-6 instead of 3-11, the Reds would be in the middle of the playoff race. If they're going to move forward into contention as early as next year, they're going to need Harang to be healthy and the pitcher he was in 2006-2007; starting him last week made no sense.

• Pirates 12-Cardinals 11:

The leaks are beginning to show in the Cardinals foundation. Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan's brilliance can only go so far when a team's bullpen performs like this. Blowing 9-3, 10-6 and 11-10 leads because the bullpen can't get anyone out is a bad sign for the second

half of the season. Add in that the upper management doesn't sound all that enthused about increasing the payroll for an available starting pitcher and the same problem that was expected for the Cardinals before the season is popping up again----the upper management is pinching pennies and the manager wants to win right now.
Historically, Ryan Franklin was never as good a pitcher as he's been this year, especially since taking over as the closer; he was due

to hit a slump eventually. Jason Isringhausen looks mentally fried and the other pitchers out there couldn't get the job done either. (Although in all fairness, the game should have been over in the ninth inning when Kyle McClellan got Jason Bay to hit a sure double play ball to Cesar Izturis----then stumbled as he was running out of the box----and Aaron Miles was unable to get the ball out of his glove to get the out at first and the tying run scored.) Then the Cardinals get a game-saving homer from a resurgent Troy Glaus and Chris Perez comes in and blows it all over again by allowing a game-ending homer to Jason Michaels. This was a bad loss.
The Cardinals were one of the positive stories of the first half of the season, but La Russa's

brilliance has a limit when the talent's not there. Since the team was intent on having both Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder be their mid-season "acquisitions" as they returned from injury and that's not going to happen, they're going to have to find outside help, but if they're not willing to spend any money then they're not going to get anyone of consequence. Those available third-tier pitchers----Paul Byrd, Randy Wolf, Miguel Batista----aren't the answer even with La Russa and Duncan's ability to maximize talent.
The NL Central is slipping away and they're probably not going to be able to secure the Wild Card either with the Brewers, Phillies and Mets all likely to be vying for it in one way or another. The fast start by the Cardinals did an effective job of covering up the rift in philosophies between the factions, but that chasm is widening and a patch job isn't going to hold things together long enough to make a difference.

To The Left Is The Abyss; To The Right Is The Promised Land

On May 31st, I wrote a blog comparing the Tampa Bay Rays to two other teams that had been woeful for what seemed like an eternity and suddenly parlayed a series of smart veteran

acquisitions along with the development of the high draft picks (one of the few perks of being so consistently bad) into an unexpected leap into contention----Comparing The Rays To Other Teams That Came From Nowhere. Those teams----the 1984 Mets and 1991 Braves----eventually fell short in their first year of realistic contention. The Mets faded out against a hot, veteran team in the Chicago Cubs; the Braves made it all the way to the World Series before losing to the Minnesota Twins. Now that the Rays have hit the skids heading into the All Star break, there's another way this could go for them and that is what happened to the 2001 Minnesota Twins.
Like the Rays, the Twins had been a franchise in constant rebuilding mode. With little money available to sign free agents, the organization instead relied on the coordination of

instruction instilled from GMs Andy MacPhail and Terry Ryan to manager Tom Kelly and permeating the entire system from top-to-bottom to develop young players. The team hadn't had a winning season since 1992 and annually finished either fourth or fifth in their division. When talk of contraction was at its apex, it was the Twins and the Expos that were the two teams most often discussed as being eliminated based on their apparent haplessness. Then something strange happened: in 2001 the Twins began winning.
All of the young players they'd developed or acquired began performing in the big leagues. With an average age of 27, those young players----A.J. Pierzynski, Cristian Guzman, Jacque Jones, Torii Hunter, David Ortiz (yes, that Big Papi before he became Big Papi), Johan Santana and J.C. Romero----led the Twins to an uprising that shocked the baseball world and vaulted them into

first place with a 56-32 record and a five game lead in their division over the powerhouse Cleveland Indians. Instead of a team that was forever being raided for their high-priced veteran stars like Chuck Knoblauch, the Twins were seen to be a team that was going to add veteran players and take their shot to win when they had the chance. Then, despite a veteran manager who'd won two World Series and had schooled his players in the correct way to play the game, the Twins slowly started falling apart. As attention to the young, unknown and unexpected contender grew, the youngsters, especially closer LaTroy Hawkins, wilted under the pressure.
As the slump began to build momentum, all of the positive attention that the Twins received for their sudden improvement turned into bewilderment of how far and how fast they'd fallen. Even with all of their experience, Kelly and his third base coach Ron Gardenhire were unable to stop the Twins from falling out of first place and from a high of 24 games over .500 on July 12th, to a record of 65-61 and 5 1/2 games out of first place by August 21st. The Twins eventually righted their ship enough to end the season with a record of 85-77, which would have been seen as an amazing jump from their previous years of 1993-2000 when they averaged 66 wins a year, but was still a disappointment considering how they looked like they were going to confound the experts with an unexpected playoff berth.
There are similarities with the Rays to both situations----that of the Mets and Braves and

that of the Twins. After years of justified ridicule, the Rays have been garnering positive attention that their young players and management have never experienced. Like the Twins of 2001, the Rays are being chased by two veteran, pennant race-tested teams who have the cash and prospects to make drastic improvements at mid-season. Like the Twins, the Rays have hit a slump at an inopportune time. Even with all of their veteran leadership, the Rays management is nowhere near as competent as that of the Twins; there's a potential for panic in Tampa that could rapidly unravel all the good work they've done.
On the bright side for the Twins, the 2001 season was a portent of the future as the team turned that experience into four division titles in five years and consistent contention despite payroll constraints. Kelly retired to the Twins front office after that season because his work was done; he'd turned the Twins youngsters into a well-schooled unit that won games not only because they were talented, but because they played the game correctly as well. (It's amazing how many games can be won by hitting cut-off men, taking the extra base, etc.) Gardenhire took over and has been one of the most unsung top managers in baseball.
The Rays are at the same crossroads that the Twins were; will they snap out of it and

become the 1991 Braves? Or will they collapse under the pressure and have to take solace in their improvement from laughingstock to a team on the rise and look toward the future with hope? The road is in front of them; which will it be?