Trade Me, Will Ya?!?

• Reds 3-Diamondbacks 2:

You can pretty much stick a fork in the Diamondbacks playoff hopes now. 4 1/2 games out

with fifteen games to go doesn't bode well for a team that pulled out all reasonable stops to try and win this season and is going to fall far short. I know there are those that are going to continually reference the Phillies and Rockies comebacks last season, but those situations were so far different than what's going on now that there's no point in even mentioning them.
The 2007 Phillies had three games remaining with the Mets and were surging even when they were in a worse position of seven games out; and with that, there was a fog of impending doom surrounding the Mets from June of last year all the way through to the last game of the season, so it wasn't a surprise that they got caught and passed.
As for what happened with the Rockies last season, that's something that I doubt we'll see again in the next thirty years. For a team that was so far out of contention to win almost every game they played for a month was a freak occurrence that isn't going to happen again for a looooong time, if ever.
The Dodgers have gotten their house in order while the Diamondbacks are switching closers in desperation to try and save their season and playing a brand of baseball that is conducive to losing like they're waiting for it to happen. Call it the Torre-magic or whatever you want, it's real and it's happening right before our eyes. When bizarre decisions are made and players who were just officially traded come back to haunt their former teams when they're not even in their normal roles, you know things are going to end badly.
Would someone please tell me the point of manager Bob Melvin naming Chad Qualls the closer, but then using Tony Pena to close a game that the Diamondbacks had to win because Qualls had worked in four of the previous six games? It's like saying, "he's the closer, but he needs the night off; so he'll start as the closer tomorrow." And this is no criticism of Pena because he has wicked stuff and the potential to dominate because he throws some pitches that are literally unhittable, but he is not the designated closer of the moment and he did blow the game.
How sweet must it have been for Micah Owings, days after what was unofficial but known

(that Owings was the player to be named later in the Adam Dunn deal), became official that he not only beat his former team in the Diamondbacks, but beat them with his bat because he's unable to pitch for the rest of the season. Here's an interesting question about Owings: in five years, will he be a pitcher or will he be an outfielder/first baseman? I happen to think that Owings could be a consistent 12-15 game winner, but he could also be a 20-homer guy with his bat. Teams are reluctant to have a player/pitcher doing both jobs, but Owings is a prime candidate to do it. Perhaps if he were in the American League, where he could DH on the days he wasn't pitching, it would be more palatable, but the guy is not just a good hitting or a good hitter, he's a good, clutch hitter and a decision has to be made to not just to play it safe and look good in public and make him a hitter or pitcher and stay there without deviation, but to take advantage of his unique skills.

• Braves 3-Mets 2 (Game One); Mets 5-Braves 0 (Game Two):

In a story of two rookies in important games, the Mets decried farm system was bolstered by the brilliant, high-pressure perforance of Jonathon Niese almost a year after another rookie

thrust into the spotlight, Philip Humber, failed miserably in another game the Mets had to win. Interestingly, both wore uniform number 49.
With so many fans still watching the Mets with heads tilted, breath short and lips pursed wondering if there's going to be a repeat of last season's suffocation and keeping a surreptitious eye on the Wild Card standings, the first game of yesterday's doubleheader didn't assuage anyone's feelings of dread. Johan Santana battled his way through 7+ innings clinging to a 2-0 lead and trying to navigate his way through eight innings only to see a series of seeing eye hits doom the Mets bullpen to another blown game. The Braves, in the midst of a dreadful season of rebuilding, would like nothing more than to play a large role in keeping the Mets out of the playoffs again; and after the disheartening loss in the first game, coupled with the Phillies continued brutalizing of the spiraling Brewers and that Niese was pitching the second game made the situation appear even more bleak. That was until Niese used a sneaky-fast high fastball, wicked slow curve and solid changeup to handcuff the Braves and pitch eight shutout innings. Most importantly, he threw strikes, challenged the hitters and overcame the nervousness that sabotaged his first start in

Milwaukee.
Fans were probably remembering Humber last season on September 26th, forced into a start that the Mets needed to get the five solid innings they were hoping for from Niese last night, and that the former first round pick allowed five runs in four innings as the Mets blew leads of 5-0 and 6-2 to the Nationals. If Niese kept the game close, everyone would've breathed a sigh of relief; instead he was brilliant and just as last week, a doubleheader spared the Mets from having to answer repeated questions about whether they were going to blow another playoff spot.

• Precisely why is Luis Ayala not a long-term solution as closer?

The armchair experts keep saying that the Mets are going to have to find a closer next season because Luis Ayala is not the long-term answer. May I ask why? How many teams have found a guy who didn't have the "stuff" or mental makeup to be a closer, installed him in

the role and found a hidden gem? Ayala's appearances have been far cleaner than Billy Wagner's ever were in his three years with the team; Ayala throws strikes, trusts his fielders; hasn't let the pressure of the situation bother him; and he's got great stuff. What's the problem with using him to close?
Look at the last five teams that have won the World Series. The 2007 Red Sox had a truly dominating closer in Jonathan Papelbon; the 2006 Cardinals had a converted starter with three career saves in Adam Wainwright; the 2005 White Sox had a guy with a bad reputation who'd been released and

didn't become the closer until September in Bobby Jenks; the 2004 Red Sox won with a junkballer in Keith Foulke; and the 2003 Marlins won with a journeyman in Ugeth Urbina.
With all the talk about Mariano Rivera's greatness and importance in the Yankees World Series titles, four of the past five teams won the World Series with a closer who wouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath as Rivera. The job isn't one in which teams have to spend the money that the likes of Francisco Rodriguez is going to demand this winter. I would be perfectly comfortable with Ayala, Al Reyes or Todd Jones as a stopgap and trying to convert the likes of John Maine into the job if necessary and spend the money to bolster the starting rotation because it's a lot of money at the roulette wheel spending money on a closer for a historically iffy result.

• Brian Cashman's return may not be as assured as everyone thinks:

It seems to be automatically assumed that Yankees GM Brian Cashman is going to re-up and remain with the Yankees after the season, but with each passing day and the Yankees

soon to be eliminated from playoff contention, along with the ambiguity, silence and repeated statements to the tune of "we'll deal with it after the season" make the odds around 50-50 (in my mind) that Cashman returns. With the East Coast jobs that will and might be available in Philadelphia and Washington is another possibility as a landing spot and that's the Seattle Mariners.
Given his choice, I'd guess that Cashman would prefer to stay with the Yankees first and foremost----and this is imperative----as long as he's allowed to run the team the way he wants. With the new statements of Hank Steinbrenner implying an "advisory board" would be utilized----ESPN Story----making it a question of whether or not that's going to happen, Cashman seems to be deliberating of what to do and reconciling the possibility of leaving the Yankees in his mind and preparing for it. The longer this vacillation goes on, the less likely it is that he'll return.
If he leaves, I'm sure Cashman would prefer to stay on the East Coast, but it also has to be remembered how conscious Cashman is to his legacy and reputation. The Phillies GM Pat Gillick has gutted their farm system trying to win right now and they're in for a rough couple of years if they don't spend a lot of money to fill their holes. The Nationals are a massive project in which it would take about three years before they're even a .500 team; and I doubt that Cashman is going to willingly want to deal with Elijah Dukes and the other juvenile delinquents that permeate the Nationals roster. That leaves the Mariners.
The Mariners are the best bet to improve next year to perhaps a win total in the mid-80s.

Their pitching staff, with Felix Hernandez; impending free agent, Les Miserables Erik Bedard who's going to have an A.J. Burnett-type season; Carlos Silva; and Brandon Morrow is enough to assure a drastic improvement and if they make a smart player move or two to improve their offense and bring in a smart manager like Bobby Valentine, how is that going to make Cashman look if he turns around a team that is set to lose close to 100 games from one season to the next?
If Cashman does leave, where does that put Joe Girardi? If there were a big name GM available to replace Cashman, I'd say that the Steinbrenners, as part of the interview and hiring process, would tell the new GM, "you do what you need to do" with Girardi and he might be replaced with someone to the new GM's choosing. Since there's no big name available, it's likely that Damon Oppenheimer would replace Cashman and keep

Girardi, but that being said, it's very possible that Girardi could be fired (especially if the Yankees end up in fourth place) and end another job after one season of work with questions about his suitability to be a manager despite his impressive interview skills, obvious intelligence and likability. I don't see this as remote a likelihood as everyone else and if Cashman's out, there may be an entirely new regime in the Yankees new stadium by 2009.

In A Daze, In A Malaise, The Tampa Bay Rays

• Red Sox 3-Rays 0:

The Rays are staggering and stumbling toward the finish as teams who've had a smooth

season-long ride sometimes do; occasionally it costs them, occasionally it doesn't. I don't see this sudden rash of losing as affecting the team one way or the other once the playoffs start. Right now, it looks like the Red Sox are going to overtake them for the division, but all that's going to do is change the matchups in the first round. Simply because a team has an awful close to their season doesn't mean they're going to continue that in the playoffs.
The Tigers and Cardinals of 2006 looked like expansion teams over the last month of that season and both wound up in the World Series; once the playoff spot is clinched (and the lead the Rays built up will ensure they're going to make the playoffs no matter how many more games they lose), they should relax and get back to playing as well as they did earlier this season. Given the lead they built up, some adversity and guidance from the leaders in the clubhouse, how to overcome it and return to the solid baseball that got them into this position in the first place isn't a bad thing whether or not they win the division title; making the playoffs is the most important thing and the Rays have that sewn up.

• Angels 12-Yankees 1:

The statements uttered above about the Rays may not have been so clear cut had the

Yankees and manager Joe Girardi acted more quickly to prevent Darrell Rasner from blowing the game up last Thursday----Blog 9/5. It would be interesting to see what position the Rays would be in and how much panic would be going on if they were in the midst of a seven game losing streak.
The scuffle between the Yankees and Angels last night looked like it stemmed more from frustration on the part of the Yankees than any real animosity between the teams; it's a bad sign that the benches cleared and the Yankees, instead of getting fired up and playing better, looked like they packed everything in and let the Angels blow them out afterwards.
Hank Steinbrenner was quoted yesterday as saying that Girardi will be back next season----ESPN Story----but I don't think that's as guaranteed as the Baby Boss implies in his statement. What happens if the Yankees collapse completely over the final eighteen games and go 6-12 or somewhere in that area and end the season at 82-80? It's seen as almost a sure thing that Brian Cashman returns, but what happens if the Washington Nationals job opens up and the Philadelphia Phillies job is offered to him and he decides on his own to abandon ship? It's likely that the Yankees would promote from within with Damon Oppenheimer to replace Cashman, but if they go elsewhere for a replacement, what if the new GM doesn't want Girardi?
If George Steinbrenner were still running things, there's no question what the end result of

this season would be; neither Cashman nor Girardi would return and the money coming off the books with the departing free agents Jason Giambi, Carl Pavano, et al would be going into the pockets of C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira. People mistake Joe Torre's unprecedentedly long reign as Yankees manager as evidence that the Boss mellowed in his old age; maybe he was slightly more patient than he would have been fifteen-to-twenty years earlier, but Torre survived for one reason----he kept winning the World Series; other than that, he would have joined the long list of Yankee managers who were fired with or without their success and loyalty to the organization.
It's conveniently forgotten that Torre was days (perhaps hours) away from being fired in 1998 when the team started out at 1-4; he was able to right the ship in time to save himself and make history with a team that is widely regarded as one of the best in baseball history. Will Girardi be back next season? I'd say probably, but it's not a definite thing because if Hank gets angry enough and realizes that his bluster and threats are met with widespread skepticism and outright ridicule, he might just turn around and fire Girardi. It's at least in the realm of possibility.

• Billy Wagner out for the rest of 2008, 2009 and perhaps for his career:

Here's one thing I don't understand about this diagnosis, did he tear the ligament while he was pitching that simulated game on Sunday, or was it already an undiagnosed tear? And if

it was already torn, why did it take until Monday to diagnose it after he'd seen all of those doctors to try and find out what was wrong initially? That's neither here nor there I suppose, because it doesn't sound like rest and rehab were going to do much good; if the ligament was going to go, it was going to go. Wagner throws very, very hard and has been durable for much of his career, so it's no surprise that he's got a serious arm injury as his career winds down. The thing the Mets now have to decide is what to do about a closer for 2009.
For 2008, they're in the same position they were before Wagner was officially out for the season. I don't think they were expecting him back when he first went on the disabled list and were looking at it as a bonus is he was going to be able to return. Luis Ayala is going to close for the rest of this season as long as he's getting the job done and I have no problem with that. Ayala has handled the pressure, he throws strikes and has very good stuff. There are voices in the media, notably Mike Francesa on WFAN, who are implying that the Mets are walking the tightrope this season with Ayala, but in order to prove his point, he's twisting reality to suit himself. On Sunday for example, Ayala gave up a run and it was seen to be a struggle for him to record the final three outs against the Phillies in the Mets 6-3 win. Looking at the box score and taking the situation out of context makes it appear that way, but it's not the case.
Ayala did give up a deep drive to Andy Tracy that Endy Chavez caught by the left field wall; and he gave up a run, but the two hits he allowed traveled about a combined total of 75 feet with swinging bunts by Shane Victorino and Matt Stairs; they were lucky hits and no reflection on how well or poorly Ayala might have been pitching. From what I can see, Ayala is pitching very well and is handling the job better than anyone else the Mets have right now.
As for next year, the immediate speculation will center on the possibility of signing the impending free agent Francisco Rodriguez from the Angels or trading for Huston Street of the

Athletics. I would not pony up the $60-70 million it's going to require to get Rodriguez. As gaudy as K-Rod's stats are, he walks a lot of hitters; has a stressful, over-the-top motion and history has proven that importing big money closers is a wasted effort much of the time. While I don't believe the closer-by-committee strategy can work in today's game, I do believe that teams can develop a closer of their own inexpensively. I wouldn't touch Street either given how shaky he's been and the concern about his health; plus Athletics boss Billy Beane is like a predator waiting for a team like the Mets to panic if they look like they're desperate to make a splash and bring in a recognizable name.
What I would do is sign a veteran stopgap like Todd Jones or keep Al Reyes just in case the designated closer falters. If they try to move forward with Ayala or use one of their youngsters like Eddie Kunz or Robert Parnell, then this is the correct strategy; I would also seriously consider shifting John Maine into the role next year. Spending more money or prospects on a different closer would be a big mistake because there are other viable options that would work just as well, if not better.

• How does this affect Wagner's Hall of Fame candidacy?

This doesn't affect Wagner's candidacy at all because he wasn't getting in one way or the other. Rob Neyer wrote this in his blog yesterday:

And what of Wagner? This year he's been just about as good as ever, when he's been able to pitch. But how good will he be in 2010? I think he'll be pretty good. John Smoltz certainly was, when he came back. But Smoltz was only 34, and Wagner will turn 39 in 2010. Even if he's pretty good, we can't assume he'll be great. Which I'm afraid puts a real damper on his Hall of Fame candidacy.

Billy Wagner is not a Hall of Famer. Hall of Fame voters elect closers under

protest to begin with. If the truly great closers of yesteryear like Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage and Rollie Fingers had to wait for election, what would it say about a pretty good, but not great closer like Billy Wagner if he were even to receive serious consideration? In today's era, Dennis Eckersley was the first of the "one-inning save" closers who got in, but that's in part because he won a load of hardware as a closer (Cy Young Award, MVP, ALCS MVP); was a top six finisher in the Cy Young/MVP voting three other times; and was also a great starting pitcher early in his career. Mariano Rivera will get in on the first ballot because of the championship teams for whom he was an indispensable linchpin, but as for the others, it's a big question mark.
Trevor Hoffman is often referred to as a "future Hall of Famer", but I'm not so sure. I would have to think long and hard about voting for Hoffman because he has no hardware, has struggled in big games; he has finished in the top six of Cy Young voting four times (twice coming

in second). Hoffman has a better shot than Wagner does, but if these closers get in, it opens up a bunch of other names that would have a legitimate argument for their own induction. Those guys, including names like John Franco and Lee Smith, are not Hall of Famers. And Franco has something that Wagner doesn't since he recorded a huge save in the playoffs by striking out Barry Bonds as the winning run at the plate in game two of the 2000 NLDS. Wagner has failed miserably in big situations time after time. This injury and the possible end to Wagner's career doesn't hurt or help his candidacy because he ain't gettin' in either way.

• Reds 5-Brewers 4:

Strategically, there's no way to blame Brewers manager Ned Yost for this loss. He could

have left starter Dave Bush in to pitch the ninth given how shaky the Brewers bullpen has been; how well Bush pitched; and that Bush had only thrown 99 pitches, but Salomon Torres has been mostly reliable as the Brewers closer; there was no reason to think he wouldn't be able to hold a two run lead.
That being said, the Brewers are gagging again as the season winds down and it is very possible that neither the Mets nor Phillies are going to be left out in the cold in this year's playoff race because the Brewers are a likely candidate to collapse down the stretch. It's indicative of Yost's tightness that after Torres was hit with Corey Patterson's line drive and Yost ventured onto the field to watch Torres make a couple of warm up tosses to make sure he was okay, Yost's jaw muscles were contracting with such ferocity that he looked like he might spontaneously combust right there on the field.
Yost is eerily similar to another tightly wound manager whom the players tolerated and eventually mutinied against, former Astros and Angels manager Terry Collins. Off the field, Collins is said to be a very nice guy, but his tempestuous nature wore on the veterans in both of his

managerial stops and frightened the young players to the point that they were petrified to make a mistake. He was moderately successful because he had some talent to work with, but his teams were winning in spite of him and not because of him. In both of Collins's managerial stops, the players let management know that enough was enough with him and his temper. In his case, as with Yost's, a change was needed for the talented teams to make it to the next level from potential contender to true contender. If the supremely talented Brewers falter again, it will be partially because of their bullpen, but predominately because of their manager and a change is going to have to be made to someone more temperate if they want to win when it counts.

Another Girardi Strategic Gaffe Dooms The Yankees For The Game And The Season

• Rays 7-Yankees 5:

If the Yankees even want to have any chance at all of making an unlikely run at a playoff

spot over the final three weeks, they have to win every game they possibly can; and in a game against the team in their division that leads them by ten games before the first pitch's even been thrown, it amounts to a two game swing in the standings; for the Yankees, last night's game against the Rays was, in essence, a playoff game. You wouldn't have known that by the way Yankees manager Joe Girardi managed as if it were a game in mid-May.
Darrell Rasner was a godsend to the Yankees injury-tattered starting rotation when he was recalled as a desperation stopgap in early May. A pitcher who could only be referred to as a journeyman/Triple A filler did an excellent job in five of his first six starts in May and early June. Such a string of performances for a pitcher of Rasner's severely limited talent wasn't

going to last and it didn't as he fell into the pattern of battling his way through five innings or so and keeping the games within reason for the Yankees offense to try and slug their way through. Last night, it couldn't have been expected that Rasner was suddenly going to revert into what he was in early May.
It was clear by the second inning that after Eric Hinske and Dioner Navarro singled and Rasner wild pitched Hinske to third that the game was one or two pitches away from blowing up completely. It was at that point that Girardi should have gotten someone up in the bullpen. He didn't.
Gabe Gross ripped a double to right scoring Hinske and sending Navarro to third. Still no action in the bullpen.
Jason Bartlett hit a sacrifice fly to center to score Navarro; Akinori Iwamura singled to center to score Gross; 3-0 Rays. Still no action in the bullpen.
B.J. Upton singled to center and only then did pitching coach Dave Eiland visit the mound and Alfredo Aceves began warming up in the bullpen about three batters too late. Carlos Pena then walked to load the bases (the Yankees were lucky Pena didn't hit one out of the park) and Girardi finally yanked Rasner. Alceves, with the bases loaded, allowed a seeing-eye grounder by Willy Aybar into right field to score two more runs

and give Rays All Star Scott Kazmir a 5-0 lead. Even with the Yankees comeback in the ninth inning to make the score a respectable 7-5, the game was out of reach in the second inning and there was no reason for it on several levels.
The swing between an eleven game deficit in the standings and a nine game deficit is mountainous. The Rays are still a young team that isn't sure whether or not to believe that their sudden leap into contention is real even with all of their success this season; a series of losses to a team like the Yankees----especially having them come into Tropicana Field and sweep them three straight----when the Rays have been so dominant at home this season may have planted a seed into the minds of the young players that a collapse was possible. After the anecdotal evidence of what happened with the Phillies and Rockies in 2007, how much would it realistically have taken for the Rays to start doubting themselves? What would they be thinking if the Yankees came in and beat them so convincingly? Despite all of the struggles the Yankees have had this season, their aura is still there. The veteran warhorses like Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte aren't going to go down without a fight and the Yankees' mere presence still within unlikely, but doable, striking distance may have sent the Rays into a tailspin.
While the Rays are traveling to Toronto to play the blazing hot Blue Jays this weekend, the Yankees are heading home to play the atrocious Mariners. What would be going through the minds of the Rays if they lost to the Blue Jays on Friday (it would've been their fourth loss in a row) as the Yankees were battering the Mariners? Would the Rays start getting nervous? Playing tight? Making mental and physical mistakes? Would things snowball and spin out of control as they did with the Mets last season? Let's say the Yankees sweep the Mariners and the Rays lose

three out of four to the Blue Jays putting the Yankees within 6 1/2 games of first place as the Rays head to Boston and then New York; what would be going through the heads of the fragile, young Rays if it started to appear possible that the Yankees were going to catch them? We won't know because Rasner was allowed to pitch to three batters too many and let the game get out of hand with a crooked number 5 up on the board in the second inning. You could almost feel the reeling Rays relax as they built that 5-0 lead and it was because of Joe Girardi staying too long with his starting pitcher; a starting pitcher that should have been on the shortest of leashes given the circumstances and importance of this game.
The argument that it was too early to go to the bullpen is an empty alibi as well. It's September; the Yankees are carrying fifteen pitchers including Alceves, who pitched very well; and Dan Giese who would have been better options than leaving Rasner in to get shelled and put the game out of reach. In fact, one of the long relievers should have been stretched and ready to start loosening up be before the game even started given how shaky Rasner's been since June.
There's no excuse for this kind of gaffe in what amounted to a playoff game for the Yankees. They had to win this game if they wanted to still be on life support as they headed back home to play the Mariners, but they're not because of their manager. This entire season has been more of a learning experience than anyone anticipated for Girardi, and in what was his first unofficial playoff game----a must win----he failed miserably because he didn't act and it cost the Yankees any chance of climbing back into the race which was, for a day at least, a realistic possibility. The game might have blown up no matter what Girardi did with Rasner, but if he'd pulled him when he should have, at least he wouldn't have been the one to light the match.

• Blue Jays 9-Twins 0:

This Blue Jays hot streak in which they've won five in a row to put them seven games over .500 is the worst thing that could be happening to the organization because, if they end at 86-76 or thereabouts, the Blue Jays front office may again look past everything that's happened from April until September and allow GM J.P. Ricciardi to continue in his job when

he should be fired.
How many more years is Ricciardi, whose bluster was one of the reasons he got the job in the first place, going to get to have his team in realistic contention? 2008 will be the sixth time in seven years that the Blue Jays have been "sort of" okay, "sort of" competitive, but not really in any position to make a genuine playoff run. Under Ricciardi, they've never won more than 87 games; never ended any closer than eight games within a playoff spot, but again, they're having a late hot streak to make their record look respectable on paper and possibly save Ricciardi's job.
If Ricciardi's failures were only in the standings and he had some basis for the decisions he'd made that haven't worked (getting Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus for example), it'd be one thing; but just about every season in which he's been the Blue Jays GM has been pockmarked with some off-field controversy from players fighting with the manager; to Ricciardi lying to the press and blaming the press for it; to the contract-related release of Frank Thomas; to the embarrassing episode in which Ricciardi criticized Adam Dunn on his radio show...*

*Just one question: why does the GM of the team have a call-in radio show anyway?!?

....among many other things. And the team has never been in contention by season's end. Amid all the complaints that it's hard for the Blue Jays to contend in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox, it's conveniently missed that the formerly woebegone Rays have surpassed all three teams a year after losing 96 games. And where are the Blue Jays? They're in fourth place; not in contention, but not ending so terribly that a GM change would be fait accompli.
Whether or not the Blue Jays notoriously patient (to their own detriment) ownership realizes it, they're never going to take the next step under Ricciardi. They need to bring in a

Brian Cashman-type GM who's not going to have a radio show; who's not going to openly spar with the press over petty matters trying to exert his machismo over them; and who's not going to preside over a team whose record never reflects the season they actually had. Former Angels GM and now Senior Advisor Bill Stoneman, who pitched two no-hitters in Canada for the Montreal Expos and ran the team before moving to the Angels, is someone I would want to speak to if I were advising the Blue Jays, but since this hot streak may save Ricciardi's job, finding a suitable replacement won't be necessary and history shows that this team's going to be in this same position a year from now and they can repeat the process all over again.

Yankees Getting Kicked In The Head From All Sides

• Red Sox 11-Yankees 3; Marlins 4-Braves 1:

Amid the stunned feelings of resignation of their current predicament that are beginning to

permeate Yankeeland, there are other aspects of the story that are only going to serve to make things worse from the organization itself to the entire fan base. It's one thing to lose; it's another thing to have that loss receive an exclamation point from perhaps the most-despised current member of the Red Sox, Dustin Pedroia.
Since his arrival as a full time big leaguer last season, Pedroia has baited, aggravated, irritated and antagonized the Yankees because he's good; because he knows he's good; because he'll tell you he's good; and because he has a penchant for getting big hits. With the Yankees clinging desperately to any chance of climbing back into contention, it must have been tantamount to getting kicked in the stomach watching Pedroia trotting around the bases after his grand slam.
With their division deficit now at 10 1/2 games behind the Rays and the Wild Card deficit at seven behind the Red Sox and 4 1/2 behind the Twins, the Yankees hopes are fading unless

they get hot and get hot fast. Individuals in the Yankee organization must be feeling the sting of what's happening elsewhere as well. On the same night that Pedroia and the Red Sox hammered the Yankees staff of journeymen and mediocre pitchers; Johan Santana gutted his way through six innings for the Mets; and Josh Johnson was in Atlanta pitching for the Marlins and punctuating his comeback from Tommy John surgery (that the Marlins front office still blames Yankees manager Joe Girardi for playing a large part in making necessary) with a complete game effort against the Braves.
Since much of his perceived ability to manage was based on the job he did in his single season with the Marlins, it should diminish Girardi's resume even further as that same Marlins team may end up 2008 with a better record as they function with a payroll that is 10% of that of the Yankees. Girardi's strengths are there for all to see----he's hard-working, intelligent and relentlessly positive----but the negatives are there for all to see as well. He has

much to answer for regarding strategy, just as he did two years ago; and he hasn't proven to be any more successful with a $200 million payroll and championship expectations than he was with a $15 million payroll and no expectations. The credit that Girardi received for the Marlins rise in 2006 is dwindling with every competitive day the bargain basement team stays in contention for a playoff spot under Fredi Gonzalez and Johnson's dominance since his return is shining a light (fairly or not) on the fact that he got hurt while pitching for Girardi.
If the Yankees season continues to slide down this road (and they've shown no reason to believe that anything's going to change over the last month), there are going to be questions about the wisdom of everything that transpired from 2007's conclusion until the end of 2008. Even though the Dodgers have problems of their own, Joe Torre's success at getting the Yankees into the playoffs no matter what can't be dismissed if they don't make the playoffs in

the first year after he was allowed to leave. Was it the smartest thing to let Johan Santana slip through their fingers (especially to go to the Mets) to keep the likes of Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes and whoever else the Twins asked for, especially since they took the Mets deal they didn't really want because they were out of options? It's easy to critique such decisions in hindsight, but since when do the Yankees let money stop them from making a move that would've added an ace in his prime like Santana? Since when does money take precedence over the good of the team?
GM Brian Cashman has made some mistakes, but he's still a good GM; even with that, there have to be questions about his motivation in making these moves. The rookie mistakes that Hank and Hal Steinbrenner have made stem from allowing Cashman to try and

lower the payroll at the expense of doing what's best for the organization in the short run. As I've said before, what is Cashman's motivation to slash costs? What difference does it make to him what the team payroll is unless he's trying to garner some credit for himself as to how wise he is with a dollar? To think that the Yankees, with their almost limitless resources, needed to save the money that Santana would have cost is absurd. After all the money wasted on the likes of Carl Pavano, what difference would another $20 or so million added to that $200 million have been if it meant a playoff spot?
Unless things take a drastic turn, there are going to be angry and rightfully indignant questions from the Yankees fan base as to why these decisions were made to play for three, four and five years down the line when the nucleus of the team is aging so rapidly. How many stellar seasons from Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter does Cashman think are left? What are they going to get out of Jorge Posada as he returns from injury? There's no doubt that Yankee

fans were spoiled by the four championships in five years and Torre's annual trip to the playoffs even if they got knocked out in the first round; now they're learning what life is like if they're transitioning to a younger and more frugal organization. The one thing that should make Yankee fans angriest is that there was no reason for the attempted payroll reduction and reliance on young players. They have a new ballpark on the way that is going to provide a windfall; they have an established brand that is going to make money no matter the condition of the team; why cut corners on the bench? On the bullpen? Or the starting rotation?
Even if, as expected and whether Cashman's there or not, the Yankees make big plays for the likes of C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Ben Sheets and whoever else, it's still not going to explain why they decided to become frugal in 2008 and started spending again when the grand plan didn't work immediately; and to think the empty threats of Hank Steinbrenner are all of a sudden going to turn into decisive (and occasionally

ill-advised) action just like those of his father and are going to fix things lends credence to the question as to why they decided to go down this road in 2008 at all; it adds to the poignancy of wondering what the purpose of all of this "looking toward the future" was from the start.
Teams like the Ahtletics, Padres, Rockies, Marlins, Twins all have an argument for scrimping and saving here and there----the Yankees don't. This all began with Cashman's decision to go young and become the object of admiration of others, saving money that he wasn't under a mandate to save and finding bargains where he didn't need to find bargains. While the previously mentioned teams have found inexpensive and productive "finds" doing business their own way, the Yankees don't have to do that, which leads to the question as to why they tried to develop a startup when they can afford to purchase established goods; why they did the equivalent of buying swampland in the Everglades when they can afford to buy land on Park Avenue. Because the plan looks like it's going to fail and the Yankees are just going to go back to throwing money at their problems which, even without a championship since 2000, at least got them into the playoffs, makes it look all the worse. What was the point?

The Triumphant(!) Return Of Carl Pavano And Other Stories

• Yankees 5-Orioles 3:
  

It wasn't a David Cone/seven no-hit innings in a comeback from aneurysm surgery kind of performance for Carl Pavano, but all things being equal, it wasn't all that bad. Pavano's stuff wasn't great;

his control wasn't great; and he was lucky, but after four years of embarrassment on and off the field, a win is a win is a win. Before anyone gets all enthusiastic about a possible useful month from

Pavano, it has to be remembered that he acquitted himself well in his two starts in April of 2007 before going on the disabled list with Tommy John surgery, so it's a start-by-start thing with him and the Yankees should put him out on the mound as long as he says he's able and use him for whatever they can get out of him over the last month.
The thing that sticks out for me in this whole episode was revealed in the recap of the game in the New York Times----Story. Here's the relevant clip:

When the Yankees were courting Pavano in 2004 — taking him to “Mamma Mia!” on Broadway, with General Manager Brian Cashman dancing in the aisles — they never could have expected what would happen to their $39.95 million, and medical expenses.

They took him to see Mamma Mia!? And they used this as a selling point? And Brian

Cashman, the general manager of the New York Yankees, was dancing in the aisles? Say what you want about Pavano on the field, but off the field he's a guy's guy; he chases girls, drives fast cars and lives his life; I find it hard to believe he had any interest whatsoever in Mamma Mia! other than scouring the cast for potential dates. In fact, if the idea were suggested to me to go see the show as part of the free agent courting process, there's a pretty good chance I would've gone to see the show and afterwards dragged Cashman into an alley, beaten him up and taken his wallet.

• Angels 7-Twins 5; the importance of long relievers as game stabilizers:

The most unsung parts of any winning team are the long relievers who rarely receive attention unless they do something bad; don't make much money; don't accrue gaudy stats

and are unappreciated by the general public. Smart baseball people know how important it is to have a pitcher who's able to enter a game in the middle innings and calm things down because the only time these types of pitchers get into a game is when the starting pitcher is knocked out early. One of the ignored pieces of the Los Angeles Angels bullpen is veteran lefty Darren Oliver.
Oliver was a successful starter early in his career and has fashioned a new job for himself as a long man out of the bullpen. He was an important part of the 2006 Mets and is now imperative to the Angels because when one of their starters gets knocked around, it's Oliver who's called upon. Many times, the game is in danger of getting out of hand when the long man enters; usually his team ends up losing no matter how well or poorly he does; but it's when he comes into a game with his team behind and stabilizes things, giving his team a chance to come back, that his value is realized.
In last night's game against the Twins, the Angels built a 6-1 lead for starter Jon Garland before the Twins started pecking away and got to within 6-4 in the fifth inning with runners on second and third and one out; Garland was yanked in favor of Oliver. Oliver proceeded to get Justin Morneau to ground out to first, scoring one run to make it 6-5; Jason Kubel grounded to second to end the inning. Oliver pitched the sixth and seventh innings, allowing only an infield single before giving way to the glamorous (and better-paid) parts of the Angels

bullpen, set-up man Scot Shields and closer Francisco Rodriguez. Shields gets the eighth inning "hold"; Rodriguez gets the save; and Oliver gets the appreciation from his teammates for stopping the Twins rally and getting them to the money men.
Oliver's an understated type who doesn't want any publicity; and he's come close to retiring several times; first when he was cut by the Mets on the last day of spring training 2006, only to see the team change their minds and bring him back; and then before the Angels called with a job offer that was partially accepted because he wanted to be closer to his family if he was going to continue to play. There are many games that are getting out-of-hand when a pitcher like Oliver enters and no one notices if the team doesn't come back; but there are also many games like last night's win, which might not have happened if the Angels didn't have a guy like Oliver who can handle the pressure, throws strikes and does his job without complaint.

• Blue Jays 11-Red Sox 0; Vernon Wells pads his stats with a team not really in, but not completely out of contention:
  

I've called Vernon Wells a player making $100 million rather than a $100 million player because he's essentially done nothing since signing that big contract to forgo free agency and stay with the Blue Jays. The argument that injuries have curtailed his production doesn't account for his woeful 2007 season----Wells Stats----but now he's starting to heat up after missing a big chunk of this season. Yesterday, Wells homered twice and his numbers are looking pretty good; if he has a solid final month and stays healthy, he'll be close to 20 homers and 85 RBI, but injuries or not, is that a season worthy of a player with Wells's contract?
A player who is worth the money that Wells is making is not putting up these numbers once his team is out of contention. Where would the Cardinals be if Albert Pujols hadn't put off elbow surgery to play through the pain? There were many voices, credible and not, saying

that since the Cardinals looked to be so terrible in the spring that Pujols should just have the surgery immediately rather than trying to drag a rickety and unusable cart like the rest of the Cardinals roster on his back.
A guy like Wells with his superior talent should have been putting these numbers up early in the season when the Blue Jays were desperate for power, their front office was making decisions that were based on money rather than wins (releasing Frank Thomas), and they weren't scoring enough runs to support the solid work of their pitching staff. Wells has gotten hot now that the Blue Jays----67-62, two games behind the Yankees and not in any realistic contention barring an almost impossible Rockies-like hot streak----are playing out the string and trying to put up a respectable record to again save GM J.P. Ricciardi's job.
The reality of the situation would be obvious to people paying attention to the circumstances in which a player puts up his numbers, but given the way the Blue Jays ownership has been taken in by the bluster of Riccardi along with his embarrassing missteps, there's every possibility they're going to take Wells's hot streak as a portent for the future; if they do that, there's no reason to believe that they're going to take proper steps to fix their franchise, which ends every season with 80-some wins leading them to think that they're going to contend the next year, only to repeat the process again and again.

• Giants 4-Padres 3; the Padres should trade Jake Peavy:

A few weeks ago, I wondered whether a devoid franchise like the Padres should try to

recover as quickly as possible by trading their two most marketable quantities in Adrian Gonzalez and Jake Peavy; now I know they should trade Jake Peavy. The Padres (48-81), heading toward 100 losses and with an owner in the midst of a divorce and possibly cutting the team payroll down to $40 million, have no hope of contending in the near future. Peavy, with his brutally violent motion is a pitcher who's destined to get hurt, but he has a reasonable contract through 2012----contract----and many teams have the prospects and motivation to take a chance on Peavy.
I don't have any faith at all in the Padres front office; nor do I think they'd be able to extract an adequate haul for a former Cy Young Award winner with or without his terrible mechanics (these ain't the brilliantly smart and savvy Marlins we're talking about here), but if they're slashing salary, they'll be better-served to re-stock the organization as best they can and they can do that by putting Peavy out on the market to see who bites, because someone definitely will.

Yankees Acquire Xavier Nady And Damaso Marte

• Yankees acquire Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte from the Pirates for Ross Ohlendorf, Jose Tabata, Phil Coke and George Kontos:

Yankees GM Brian Cashman finally used some of that "organizational depth" he constantly

refers to and filled two gaping holes. In acquiring Xavier Nady, it's hard to believe that the Yankees are under any illusions about what they're going to get out of him. He's not the .330 hitter he's been this year and he's had a history of being injury prone and/or unlucky; that being said, he's a good guy in the clubhouse; handled New York before and got some big clutch hits with the Mets; is a decent enough outfielder and can play first base; and he also hits well enough to the opposite field that the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium will be put to good use. With Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada both out or hindered for extended periods, the Yankees needed to beef up their offense and Nady is just good enough to do that. He's going to make a lot of money in arbitration this winter given the year he's having, but the Yankees have a load of money coming off the books and if Nady plays well, they're not going to blink about paying him.
Damaso Marte is a former Yankees farmhand who's bounced around and found a home with the Pirates as more than just a lefty specialist. His numbers against righties are good

enough that he's no Mike Myers/Tony Fossas where leaving him in to pitch to a righty----any righty----is done so at their own risk. He was a workhorse with the White Sox before and during their championship season and pitched well for the Pirates as a set-up man and occasional closer. He has a $6 million team option for 2009, but the Yankees won't think twice about exercising that or extending it if Marte does well for them.
The Pirates had previously been asking for the moon for both Nady and Marte, but acquitted themselves well enough in this trade. They probably wouldn't have gotten more from any other interested team, so it was smart to take the Yankees deal when it was offered. Ross Ohlendorf struggled as a long-man/mop-up man for the Yankees this year

and they projected him as a reliever, but he showed potential as a starter in the minors and may be better off in that role as a potential innings-eater at the middle-to-back-end of the rotation. He's big enough (6'4" 235) to handle a heavy workload. George Kontos is a right-handed pitcher who's also big (6'3" 215) and has put up big strikeout numbers in the minors as a starter. (Presumably both Ohlendorf and Kontos are smart as the former went to Princeton and the latter went to Northwestern.) Phil Coke sounds like more of a project than prospect since he's already 26, but he's lefty and has put up promising strikeout numbers. The big part of the trade for the Pirates, other than stockpiling some power arms, is Jose Tabata.
Tabata was one of the Yankees "untouchable" prospects that they were reluctant to

include in any trades for veteran pitchers like Johan Santana (although I think Cashman was just trying to find excuses not to trade for Santana and then have to pay him as the Mets did). Tabata is still a baby as he's only going to be twenty next month; his walk totals imply plate discipline impressive in such a young player; he can run and will develop power as he matures; he's struggled a bit at Double A this year, but not enough to raise any questions about his future. If the Yankees make the playoffs and get what they need out of Nady and Marte and the Pirates get use from at least one of the pitchers and Tabata becomes a productive big leaguer, neither team is going to regret making this trade which had to be made from both ends. The Yankees couldn't afford not to improve both their bullpen and injury-ravaged outfield and the Pirates couldn't let their demands stand in the way of clearing salary for players they probably weren't going to keep past 2009 and who weren't going to be present when the Pirates become true contenders anyway.

• Now that you mention it, the Padres should trade Jake Peavy as well:

Joe at Statistician Magician commented on my last posting that if my logic that the Padres should trade Adrian Gonzalez is accurate, then they should also deal Jake Peavy, and he's right; more so, in fact. Peavy is Tommy John-surgery waiting to happen with that motion and if

the Padres are going to replenish their organization as quickly as possible, they should take advantage of Peavy's gaudy results to hypnotize another team into surrendering a big chunk of their farm system to get him and let them worry about when his arm is going to explode. The problem is that I have no faith in the Padres hierarchy to make a Marlins-like deal to extract slabs of another organization's best, blue chip prospects and develop them into stars; so as long as they still have the current management team, it's a big risk to do anything of consequence that would haunt the organization if it doesn't work.

• Mets 7-Cardinals 2:

Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen is going to get the credit for the development of Mike Pelfrey, but the hot streak started well before Warthen arrived and while Rick Peterson was

still there. Peterson's departure probably helped guys like Oliver Perez (who's a head case), but it doesn't diminish the good work he did with the Mets. I don't think anyone could've expected Pelfrey to mature and develop this fast and he has a chance to win 16 or 17 games if he keeps it up, and who would've predicted that?
I had to look back into my previous postings to make sure I never said anything too derogatory about Carlos Delgado and I didn't. While guys like Mike Francesa and the other "experts" at WFAN and in other places were saying that Delgado should be dumped or released----released!----my view was that as a veteran player who has lost bat speed, Delgado can't catch up to the fastballs of top-notch pitchers anymore, but since they had other holes and few alternatives, the Mets had little choice but to keep writing Delgado's name in the lineup and hope for a resurgence. Well, that hope has come true (for awhile at least) as Delgado has carried the Mets during this hot streak.
Looking at it objectively, Delgado's lack of production was considered age-related when it

may have been just a slump. If he were ten years younger, no one would've said a word about releasing him; they would have come up with other suggestions, but releasing him and saying that he's "finished" wouldn't have entered the conversation (or PEDs might have been suggested); but with a struggling veteran at age 36, in the age of testing for PEDs and, possibly more importantly, amphetamines, it's harder for such a veteran to regain the public confidence without a sustained streak like Delgado has had. That he's had it has made people like Francesa look foolish. And this isn't an indictment for the statements that were made; Delgado did look finished for much of the first half; my problem with these critics is that they have to come up with a justification for their statements and still try to weasel away from making the credibility-accruing admission: I was wrong. And if Delgado continues this hot streak, they still won't admit they were wrong; and I don't think they realize how such an attitude damages credibility, but if they haven't figured it out yet...

• Rockies 7-Reds 2; Dodgers 3-Nationals 2:

Don't look now, but the Rockies are only six games out of first place. Their position is so precarious that the next few days will determine whether they aggressively try to trade Matt Holliday, but after last year's comeback it's starting to look like they'll hang onto him at least

into the winter to see if they can come up with another hot streak.
I'm going to maintain my belief in Joe Torre and the Dodgers. They've been lucky that the Diamondbacks haven't taken control of the division and, with all their injuries and horrendous performances (see Jones, Andruw), they're still right there at the top of the division. By late August, they're going to start getting their injured veterans back; the cooling weather will rejuvenate guys like Jeff Kent and Nomar Garciaparra and they'll have a characteristic Torre-run to make the playoffs. The Wild Card, though unlikely, isn't completely out of the question for any of the three teams either.

• Braves 8-Phillies 2:

It doesn't look like that comeback against the Mets on Tuesday spurred anything in the

Phillies other than Jimmy Rollins's mouth and the benching of Rollins and his attitude could eventually become a problem within that clubhouse. Nor does it help that Brad Lidge got lit up for the first time this season last night against the Braves; it also came at a characteristically inopportune time for Lidge, who looked like he was returning to his Astros, "Lights Out" Lidge glory, but in important games, there has to be concern about his mental state and resulting performance.

More On The Yankees And Other Stories

• Red Sox 7-Yankees 0 (Part II):

Manager Joe Girardi closed the clubhouse doors for a half hour as he lit into his team for their lackadaisical play; we'll know at the end of this weekend whether or not it did any good

(or will be perceived to have done any good, anyway). There's no doubt that the team deserved a tongue lashing after the way they've played this week, but what I'm wondering is how far Girardi is able to go in unloading on his team and how much the players----many former teammates of the manager and in the same age group----are going to take.
The players know he's the manager and that the relationship between player and teammate and player and manager must be at least slightly different, but if he really starts letting them have it, how long before a guy like Alex Rodriguez (for example) just rolls his eyes and uses the logic of "who are you to be telling me anything?" It's a fine line that a contemporary has to take when he essentially becomes the boss. Girardi is a solid enough strategic manager and he does have some presence, but I would think that Joe Torre tearing paint off the walls in screaming at his slumbering players would have more of an impact than Girardi doing it would just because Girardi's such a young and inexperienced manager.

Michael Kay was at it again with the nonsense of "Jason Varitek wants a Jorge Posada-type contract"; you have to give Kay credit in that he latches onto one thing and doesn't start changing his tune months later even if what he says was ridiculous when he first said it and continues to be ridiculous. I'm not going into repeated detail on this because I talked about it earlier----Does Michael Kay Listen To Himself When He Speaks? 4/16/08----and the gist remains the same almost verbatim.

There's another story about Brian Cashman's contract in the NY Times----Story----and it's implying that the deal is about fait accompli that Cashman is going to return and I'm not so

sure. The longer this drags out and the combination of things----change in ownership, struggles on the field, leaving the team with a young nucleus and the possibility of moving onto a less stressful environment----make it at least a decent chance that Cashman might leave. Add in that there are going to be attractive jobs definitely open----Philadelphia and Seattle----and jobs probably open----Washington and Toronto, and Cashman may tell the Steinbrenners that

enough's enough and leave. The one I would keep an eye on is in Washington because it's a job that any baseball person in his right mind should want. I've said this before and I'll say it again: if an executive is able to bring a championship contending team to the Washington DC area, the world (literally) could be his. Cashman's calculating enough to take that into consideration and might want to take the opportunity if it's presented and it very well might be.

• Diamondbacks 6-Brewers 5:

I opened my big mouth about Salomon Torres and the possibility of the Brewers closer

making the All Star team because he solidified the role and possibly saved the manager's job and the team from an under .500 season and he blows a game a couple of hours later. In all fairness, no closer is going to enter a ninth inning with his team leading by five runs and expect to have to record a save; it's part of the job description for a closer to be ready at all times, but even Hall of Fame closers like Mariano Rivera aren't going to expect their teams to blow a lead that fast. Torres blew the game, but it may have been more of a mental hiccup than a physical one.

• Dodgers 5-Astros 2:
  

Even with all the injuries and problems scoring runs the Dodgers have endured, they're starting to get their veterans back and Chad Billingsley is beginning to look like the ace his stuff dictates he could be. The Diamondbacks have slumped and it's allowed the Dodgers to heal without worrying about getting buried in the playoff race and I think, after the All Star break, they're going to take off.

• Mark Grudzielanek or Luis Castillo----20/20 hindsight:

I hadn't even thought of Luis Castillo as an option at second base for the Mets last season when they were openly in the market for a replacement for the injured Jose Valentin; I preferred Mark Grudzielanek and they presumably could have gotten him for a couple of prospects. The argument that the Mets would likely have made for

Castillo is that he's (supposedly) five years younger than Grudzielanek, but Grudzielanek is the far better player; now that Castillo's on the disabled list and Grudzielanek is having such a fine year at the plate and is a Gold Glove winning second baseman, are the Mets having second thoughts about A) going after Castillo over Grudzielanek; and B) signing Castillo to a long-term extension? I don't think they need to be told now that they made a mistake.