Trade Me, Will Ya?!?

• Reds 3-Diamondbacks 2:

You can pretty much stick a fork in the Diamondbacks playoff hopes now. 4 1/2 games out

with fifteen games to go doesn't bode well for a team that pulled out all reasonable stops to try and win this season and is going to fall far short. I know there are those that are going to continually reference the Phillies and Rockies comebacks last season, but those situations were so far different than what's going on now that there's no point in even mentioning them.
The 2007 Phillies had three games remaining with the Mets and were surging even when they were in a worse position of seven games out; and with that, there was a fog of impending doom surrounding the Mets from June of last year all the way through to the last game of the season, so it wasn't a surprise that they got caught and passed.
As for what happened with the Rockies last season, that's something that I doubt we'll see again in the next thirty years. For a team that was so far out of contention to win almost every game they played for a month was a freak occurrence that isn't going to happen again for a looooong time, if ever.
The Dodgers have gotten their house in order while the Diamondbacks are switching closers in desperation to try and save their season and playing a brand of baseball that is conducive to losing like they're waiting for it to happen. Call it the Torre-magic or whatever you want, it's real and it's happening right before our eyes. When bizarre decisions are made and players who were just officially traded come back to haunt their former teams when they're not even in their normal roles, you know things are going to end badly.
Would someone please tell me the point of manager Bob Melvin naming Chad Qualls the closer, but then using Tony Pena to close a game that the Diamondbacks had to win because Qualls had worked in four of the previous six games? It's like saying, "he's the closer, but he needs the night off; so he'll start as the closer tomorrow." And this is no criticism of Pena because he has wicked stuff and the potential to dominate because he throws some pitches that are literally unhittable, but he is not the designated closer of the moment and he did blow the game.
How sweet must it have been for Micah Owings, days after what was unofficial but known

(that Owings was the player to be named later in the Adam Dunn deal), became official that he not only beat his former team in the Diamondbacks, but beat them with his bat because he's unable to pitch for the rest of the season. Here's an interesting question about Owings: in five years, will he be a pitcher or will he be an outfielder/first baseman? I happen to think that Owings could be a consistent 12-15 game winner, but he could also be a 20-homer guy with his bat. Teams are reluctant to have a player/pitcher doing both jobs, but Owings is a prime candidate to do it. Perhaps if he were in the American League, where he could DH on the days he wasn't pitching, it would be more palatable, but the guy is not just a good hitting or a good hitter, he's a good, clutch hitter and a decision has to be made to not just to play it safe and look good in public and make him a hitter or pitcher and stay there without deviation, but to take advantage of his unique skills.

• Braves 3-Mets 2 (Game One); Mets 5-Braves 0 (Game Two):

In a story of two rookies in important games, the Mets decried farm system was bolstered by the brilliant, high-pressure perforance of Jonathon Niese almost a year after another rookie

thrust into the spotlight, Philip Humber, failed miserably in another game the Mets had to win. Interestingly, both wore uniform number 49.
With so many fans still watching the Mets with heads tilted, breath short and lips pursed wondering if there's going to be a repeat of last season's suffocation and keeping a surreptitious eye on the Wild Card standings, the first game of yesterday's doubleheader didn't assuage anyone's feelings of dread. Johan Santana battled his way through 7+ innings clinging to a 2-0 lead and trying to navigate his way through eight innings only to see a series of seeing eye hits doom the Mets bullpen to another blown game. The Braves, in the midst of a dreadful season of rebuilding, would like nothing more than to play a large role in keeping the Mets out of the playoffs again; and after the disheartening loss in the first game, coupled with the Phillies continued brutalizing of the spiraling Brewers and that Niese was pitching the second game made the situation appear even more bleak. That was until Niese used a sneaky-fast high fastball, wicked slow curve and solid changeup to handcuff the Braves and pitch eight shutout innings. Most importantly, he threw strikes, challenged the hitters and overcame the nervousness that sabotaged his first start in

Milwaukee.
Fans were probably remembering Humber last season on September 26th, forced into a start that the Mets needed to get the five solid innings they were hoping for from Niese last night, and that the former first round pick allowed five runs in four innings as the Mets blew leads of 5-0 and 6-2 to the Nationals. If Niese kept the game close, everyone would've breathed a sigh of relief; instead he was brilliant and just as last week, a doubleheader spared the Mets from having to answer repeated questions about whether they were going to blow another playoff spot.

• Precisely why is Luis Ayala not a long-term solution as closer?

The armchair experts keep saying that the Mets are going to have to find a closer next season because Luis Ayala is not the long-term answer. May I ask why? How many teams have found a guy who didn't have the "stuff" or mental makeup to be a closer, installed him in

the role and found a hidden gem? Ayala's appearances have been far cleaner than Billy Wagner's ever were in his three years with the team; Ayala throws strikes, trusts his fielders; hasn't let the pressure of the situation bother him; and he's got great stuff. What's the problem with using him to close?
Look at the last five teams that have won the World Series. The 2007 Red Sox had a truly dominating closer in Jonathan Papelbon; the 2006 Cardinals had a converted starter with three career saves in Adam Wainwright; the 2005 White Sox had a guy with a bad reputation who'd been released and

didn't become the closer until September in Bobby Jenks; the 2004 Red Sox won with a junkballer in Keith Foulke; and the 2003 Marlins won with a journeyman in Ugeth Urbina.
With all the talk about Mariano Rivera's greatness and importance in the Yankees World Series titles, four of the past five teams won the World Series with a closer who wouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath as Rivera. The job isn't one in which teams have to spend the money that the likes of Francisco Rodriguez is going to demand this winter. I would be perfectly comfortable with Ayala, Al Reyes or Todd Jones as a stopgap and trying to convert the likes of John Maine into the job if necessary and spend the money to bolster the starting rotation because it's a lot of money at the roulette wheel spending money on a closer for a historically iffy result.

• Brian Cashman's return may not be as assured as everyone thinks:

It seems to be automatically assumed that Yankees GM Brian Cashman is going to re-up and remain with the Yankees after the season, but with each passing day and the Yankees

soon to be eliminated from playoff contention, along with the ambiguity, silence and repeated statements to the tune of "we'll deal with it after the season" make the odds around 50-50 (in my mind) that Cashman returns. With the East Coast jobs that will and might be available in Philadelphia and Washington is another possibility as a landing spot and that's the Seattle Mariners.
Given his choice, I'd guess that Cashman would prefer to stay with the Yankees first and foremost----and this is imperative----as long as he's allowed to run the team the way he wants. With the new statements of Hank Steinbrenner implying an "advisory board" would be utilized----ESPN Story----making it a question of whether or not that's going to happen, Cashman seems to be deliberating of what to do and reconciling the possibility of leaving the Yankees in his mind and preparing for it. The longer this vacillation goes on, the less likely it is that he'll return.
If he leaves, I'm sure Cashman would prefer to stay on the East Coast, but it also has to be remembered how conscious Cashman is to his legacy and reputation. The Phillies GM Pat Gillick has gutted their farm system trying to win right now and they're in for a rough couple of years if they don't spend a lot of money to fill their holes. The Nationals are a massive project in which it would take about three years before they're even a .500 team; and I doubt that Cashman is going to willingly want to deal with Elijah Dukes and the other juvenile delinquents that permeate the Nationals roster. That leaves the Mariners.
The Mariners are the best bet to improve next year to perhaps a win total in the mid-80s.

Their pitching staff, with Felix Hernandez; impending free agent, Les Miserables Erik Bedard who's going to have an A.J. Burnett-type season; Carlos Silva; and Brandon Morrow is enough to assure a drastic improvement and if they make a smart player move or two to improve their offense and bring in a smart manager like Bobby Valentine, how is that going to make Cashman look if he turns around a team that is set to lose close to 100 games from one season to the next?
If Cashman does leave, where does that put Joe Girardi? If there were a big name GM available to replace Cashman, I'd say that the Steinbrenners, as part of the interview and hiring process, would tell the new GM, "you do what you need to do" with Girardi and he might be replaced with someone to the new GM's choosing. Since there's no big name available, it's likely that Damon Oppenheimer would replace Cashman and keep

Girardi, but that being said, it's very possible that Girardi could be fired (especially if the Yankees end up in fourth place) and end another job after one season of work with questions about his suitability to be a manager despite his impressive interview skills, obvious intelligence and likability. I don't see this as remote a likelihood as everyone else and if Cashman's out, there may be an entirely new regime in the Yankees new stadium by 2009.

Who Would've Thought In March...

• Who would've thought that by August 21, these things would've happened:
  

That the Tampa Bay Rays would be fighting for the best record in baseball and be ten games ahead of the Yankees.
That Manny Ramirez would finally aggravate the Red Sox to the point where they decided to get him out of town once and for all and pay his salary to leave.

That the Yankees would undergo such a rough transition with a

new manager in Joe Girardi (who still appears to have a lot to learn) and that their young starters would be injured and terrible, respectively. (Actually, someone called the Ian Kennedy disaster----meeeeeeeeee!!!)
That the Orioles, having cleared out their veterans and started a legit rebuilding project, would be flirting with .500 and playing very respectably.
That the Minnesota Twins, sans Johan Santana and Torii Hunter and with a patchwork lineup, would be fighting for first place.
That the Detroit Tigers would become the latest version of The Worst Team Money Could Buy?
That after coming within one win of the World Series, the Cleveland Indians would stumble

badly enough to clear out most of their veterans and start another rebuilding project.
That Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley would post such massive offensive numbers and that Ian Kinsler would even get himself into the

conversation for MVP.
That the Seattle Mariners would see everything go wrong far beyond a worst case scenario; Stephen King couldn't come up with a series of nightmares as disastrous as the Mariners 2008 season.
That Mike Pelfrey of the Mets would develop this quickly to become a top young starter in the National League and win a probable 15-16 games.
That Ryan Howard would start morphing into a kind, gentle version of Dave Kingman and that his numbers would tumble so rapidly; and that reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins's play wouldn't live up to his mouth.

That the historically durable Tom Glavine and John Smoltz would both be lost for the season; the Braves pitching staff so top-to-bottom rotten; and that they'd be sellers instead of buyers at mid-season starting a rebuilding project.
That the Marlins would be in contention spending less money on their entire roster than Alex Rodriguez makes all season.
That the Brewers would go for broke so completely by dealing for C.C. Sabathia, who they have no chance of keeping after the season.
That even Tony La Russa, baseball's resident genius, would be able to keep the Cardinals patchwork and bargain basement roster (aside from Albert Pujols) in contention this long, especially without a closer.

That Ken Griffey Jr would allow the Reds to trade him.
That the Diamondbacks, with their excellent on-paper roster; dual-headed Cy Young Award contenders in Brandon Webb and Dan Haren; a resurgent Randy Johnson; and solid mid-season acquisitions, would be so relentlessly and unexplainably inconsistent.
That the Dodgers would acquire two future Hall of Famers for almost nothing within three weeks of each other in Manny Ramirez and Greg Maddux.
That the Padres would be so poisonously bad and that their arrogance and cheapness would permeate their organization to become almost hopeless.

These surprises----among many, many more----prove that no matter how one makes their

predictions, based on numbers or observation, there's no way to know what's going to happen in a season; no way to judge what's going to work and what isn't. The only thing to do is to watch and learn and try not to make the same mistakes again. If anything, this season is a prime indicator of why they play the games on the field rather than in a room with a bunch of nerds alternating between their stats and World of Warcraft.

The Increased Stress-Level From Watching The Mets

• Mets 5-Padres 3:

I don't know if there's a team in major league baseball that's more aggravating to watch than the New York Mets. No lead is ever safe especially with the injuries and trouble they're

having scoring runs and, with last season's epic collapse still such a fresh wound, there's an aspect of having to change channels or cover one's eyes to avoid even the possibility of a new, innovative way to lose.
In this most recent series alone the Mets, playing a dead team in the San Diego Padres, won two of three games like a boxer ahead on points and staying away just to preserve victory. On Tuesday it took three relievers to fill injured closer Billy Wagner's increasingly unbooable shoes and somehow turn a 6-2 lead into a 6-5 win. On Thursday, the bullpen blew another of Johan Santana's wins and had to wriggle out of a bases loaded, no-out situation in the eighth inning to keep the lead; then in the ninth, Scott Schoeneweis (whose forte is supposed to be dealing with lefties and who I said a few days ago should be made into the interim closer with Wagner out) gave up a game-tying homer to a lefty batter in Jody Gerut. In the bottom of the inning, Endy Chavez led off with a

single, then Jose Reyes popped a bunt up to the pitcher. It took David Wright's game-winning homer to prevent extra innings against a team that should be used as a punching bag instead of another reason for a trip to the cardiologist.
Before he passed away, the father of former NFL quarterback Vinny Testaverde was unable to watch the games because he had a bad heart and got too excited, endangering his health. I get the same idea with most of the Mets games----win or lose----except they're not exacerbating someone's heart problem, they're causing it.

• Good move----Rays acquire Bradford; useless move----Phillies acquire Eyre:

The Rays acquisition of Chad Bradford from the Orioles is an excellent move to augment an already strong bullpen for the Rays. Bradford is a well-liked, calm, experienced veteran who

throws strikes with a funky submarine style of pitching and can still get out lefties if necessary. What this also does is add another dimension of diversity to the Rays bullpen. Wave after wave of different pitchers can be thrown at an opponent from Bradford and his quirky motion and minimal velocity; to the flamethrowing Grant Balfour; to the lefty J.P. Howell; to the sliders of Dan Wheeler; and the experience and meanness of closer Troy Percival. The Rays are serious about winning while they have the opening.
On the other side of the coin is the Phillies acquisition of Scott Eyre. Not only has Eyre been just awful this year, but what does it say that a team in first place like the Cubs is dealing a veteran, lefty relief pitcher to a team that they might have to face in the playoffs? While it's true that Eyre is a free agent at the end of the season, has been okay against lefties and a change sometimes awakens veterans, the Phillies also gave up a right-handed pitcher who looks like he has some ability in minor leaguer Brian Schlitter. Schlitter has 53 strikeouts in 44 innings for Clearwater in the Florida State League.
I'm wondering if the Phillies ownership is keeping tabs on what

outgoing GM Pat Gillick is doing to try and win right now because from the deals he's made for the likes of Joe Blanton and now Eyre, it looks like he's not at all hesitant to gut the farm system of remaining prospects to win now and the team isn't even that much better because of it. While Gillick isn't a kamikaze-type GM, he may be allowing the fact that he's leaving after this season to cloud his usually solid judgment. If that's the case, the organization's going to have problems in the future with this go-for-broke mentality especially since they're only getting mediocre veterans in return.

• Gauging the future of two of the worst teams in baseball:

I'm through waiting for the Padres to get a similar media-roasting as the Mariners have gotten this year even though they're in worse shape; but let's look at which team is going to have a better chance to jump into contention quickly.
As bad as the Mariners have been, their future is not dire. They have the goods to jump back into respectability and even contention as early as next season if they don't panic and

do stupid things to appease critics. They need a power-hitting first baseman and may need to clear out some players whose paycheck doesn't match their production (Ichiro), but other than that, they have the one thing any contending team is going to need----pitching.
Felix Hernandez is only 22 and will be a star. Les Miserables, Erik Bedard has been a disaster, but to dump him for pennies on the dollar would make no sense for the Mariners after what they gave up to get him; he also has one thing in his favor that would indicate he's going to stay healthy in 2009 and have a big year: impending free agency. Carlos Silva can't be as bad next year as he's been this year and is still a solid back of the rotation starter; I think he's been greatly affected by the poisonous atmosphere in the Mariners clubhouse and as that improves, so will Silva. They're also making Brandon Morrow into a starting pitcher and if he can win 10-12 games next year, they've got a solid rotation. Their bullpen will still be anchored by J.J. Putz, who isn't as great as he was in 2007, but is still a top-echelon closer. If they improve the lineup and clear out some disinterested veterans, they could be pretty good next year.
What do the Padres have to look forward to for the future? Greg Maddux? Trevor Hoffman? Jody Gerut? Scott Hairston? They have an MVP candidate in Adrian Gonzalez; there are some solid youngsters in San Diego like Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley; but Chris Young can't be counted on to stay healthy and deliver more than 10-12 wins and 150-180 innings; Heath Bell will probably be a decent closer in replacing Hoffman, but is leveling off after his brilliant work last season. And Jake Peavy is going to get hurt.

The main differences between the two organizations is that the Mariners saw that what they were doing wasn't working and are going to bring in a new GM/manager combination next season. If the manager, as rumored, is going to be Bobby Valentine, then they're going to get better and get better fast. The Padres don't appear prepared to change the road they're on by getting rid of anyone; they appear intent on moving forward as they have with downsliding veterans and journeymen. And why shouldn't they? They're not getting any of the deserved mocking and criticism that the Mariners are getting, so the pressure isn't there to change even if, on the whole, their organization is in worse shape with little hope for the future.

• A note on Brett Favre:

Is it just me, or is there anyone else out there thinking that Brett Fav...ruh is regretting coming out of retirement to go and play for the Jets? (The following YouTube clip isn't really relevant to the above statement, but I'm just seeing if I can link a video into my blogs. Thanks to the Fulbright Scholar and his step-by-step instructions, the attempt isn't ending with me flinging my fiancee's laptop against a wall.)

The Momentum Theory Loses...Well, Loses Momentum

• Mets 6-Phillies 3:

Jim Leyland and Tony La Russa, two men who combined probably know more in-the-trenches baseball than any duo currently breathing, have always believed that

momentum stops and starts with the performance of the next day's starting pitcher. No matter how disheartening a loss, if the next day's starter delivers a stellar performance or just keeps their team in the game, the previous night's game is forgotten. Fans would be amazed at how quickly a professional athlete puts a poor performance behind him once the next game starts; this Mets game was a case of them facing a pitcher in Brett Myers who is at a crossroads in his career; having their entire bullpen ready for action in situations familiar to them (Billy Wagner won't get booed for awhile at least); and getting a required performance from starter John Maine of seven innings and three runs allowed under a reasonable pitch total of 104.
For every self-styled expert who thinks he's got his fingers on the pulse of an athlete like Mike Francesa from The Mike and the Mad Dog radio show, and who treated the loss on Tuesday like an epic catastrophe, one would think they'd learn by now that momentum comes from performance. If a player is slumping that's one thing, but the game on Tuesday could also be seen as one in which the Mets dominated the Phillies, but didn't execute when necessary for tack-on runs and their bullpen gacked up a lead because they weren't mentally ready to replace their All Star closer even for one game.
As for the Phillies, they're going to have to come to a solution with Myers and quick. There's something not right. The minor league assignment hasn't fixed much of anything that

was wrong with him and either he's hurt or he was affected more by the sudden switch in roles to closer last season than anyone realizes. They traded for Joe Blanton ostensibly to replace Adam Eaton in the rotation, but Myers hasn't been any more reliable than Eaton; if Myers isn't hurt and Tom Gordon is out for a lengthy period, they may have to keep Eaton in the rotation and use Myers back in the bullpen. Myers was reluctant to move back into the rotation anyway and his problem may be nothing more than the drug-like adrenaline affects of pitching almost every day in games the team has to win. J.A. Happ acquitted himself well in his two starts replacing Myers and Kris Benson is still down in the minors (his numbers aren't good and I don't even know if he's healthy), so there are options if they have to move Myers to the bullpen and don't want Eaton in the rotation either. If Myers is physically healthy, then the Phillies have to find out what's going on with him because they're going to need him to perform in some capacity if they want to make the playoffs as a division winner or Wild Card.

• Brewers 3- Cardinals 0:

In a blog on June 10th discussing the potential for C.C. Sabathia to get the Johan Santana/Barry Zito-type contract he's going to want as a free agent at the end of this season, I mentioned that the big lefty might have to go on an Orel Hershiser-style run of shutouts and

lead his team (then the Cleveland Indians) to the playoffs and World Series to guarantee the paycheck----Pinning Their Financial Hopes On The One Desperate Lunatic; well he's starting to look like he is going on such a run only he's carrying the Brewers on his broad shoulders instead of the Indians.
Three straight complete games and last night's virtuoso performance bring back memories of Hershiser's unbelievable streak; the acquisition of Sabathia for the Brewers brings back memories of the Cubs acquisition of Rick Sutcliffe from the Indians in 1984 in which Sutcliffe went 16-1 to carry the Cubs to the playoffs. Sabathia is reveling in his situation as the "hired gun" as David Cone used to like to call himself, and at this rate, he's going to hypnotize an owner to give him the money he wants.
One note about the Cardinals: it's very interesting that manager Tony La Russa allowed struggling closer Jason Isringhausen to pitch two innings and throw 31 pitches. Is La Russa planning to possibly move Isringhausen into the starting rotation or make him part of a "pieced together" starter with Todd Wellemeyer and the (possibly) returning Chris Carpenter? He's been so bad in late innings, using him for three or four innings isn't a bad idea and La Russa's got the guts to make such a move in the latter portion of a season.

• Red Sox 6-Mariners 3; Reds 9-Padres 5:

I'm still waiting for someone to explain why the Seattle Mariners have been considered a poorly-constructed, leaderless and embarrassing laughingstock and both GM Bill Bavasi and manager John McLaren have been fired and team CEO Howard Lincoln is under fire while the

Padres expectations were as high, if not higher, than that of the Mariners and there's not a similar righteous indignation at their humiliating performance this year. ESPN's Rob Neyer for example (with whom I agree and disagree on many things----I agreed most recently with the confusion regarding the Randy Wolf and Jon Rauch trades; and who, after my anger induced attack on him earlier this year, was a beyond-the-call nice and reasonable guy) is still referencing Paul DePodesta as a qualified baseball guy and I do not understand it. It's one thing to have a personal affinity for a guy as Neyer clearly does with DePodesta, but that shouldn't blind one to reality. I think Omar Minaya's a nice guy and a good baseball man, but I've criticized him when warranted. How is it that the Padres are not being raked over the coals as their performance, in many ways worse than that of the Mariners, is being glossed over and ignored for the travesty it's been?

• Speaking of embarrassing travesties, is this some MTV-teen reality show, or is it two of the most revered and canonized NFL franchises and one of the most beloved (especially by the media) players in its history?

So now the Brett Fav...ruh saga has descended into accusations and denials as to whether or not he used a "Packers-issued" cell phone to talk to the Minnesota Vikings about joining

them? These big, tough football guys are acting like members of the cast of The Real World instead of the cold, calculating military-style leaders and tough and oblivious to the elements performers they're portrayed as being by the NFL.
Those that are involved with the NFL in one capacity or another like gossiping as much as any teenage girl and this absurdity is to the point where it needs a resolution because all this is doing is bringing attention to a situation that is going to drag on until it's resolved and it's just going to get more and more silly.

An In-Your-Face Guy For The Mariners

After watching the first inning of the Mets-Mariners game in which one of the outs recorded by Johan Santana was Mariners second baseman Jose Lopez coming up short trying for a double after a hit to left field, it occurred to me that the last place Mariners, playing like they'd

rather be anywhere other than at the ballpark need a guy who's going to get into their faces and let them know their dysfunctional, disinterested behavior is not going to be tolerated. New manager Jim Riggleman ain't it. The first name that came to mind was Larry Bowa, but two teams have tried that and it hasn't worked; then another name came to mind; one that is from the Pacific Northwest and has had massive success as a minor league manager and needs some enterprising and open-minded owner to give him a chance to refresh his

image. That someone is Wally Backman.
If ever there was a roster of players that needed some raving lunatic who couldn't care less about their resumes or sizes of their contracts, it's the Mariners. At this point, why should they let the laid back Riggleman replace the laid back John McLaren with the team completely out of any kind of contention? At this point, what's the difference? The team's going nowhere fast and the young players like Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt could use a guy like Backman to make sure their heads are in the game rather than on whatever else they're thinking about; Ichiro Suzuki could use someone with nothing to lose like Backman letting him know that he's not running the team and isn't going to decide what position he's going to play; and Les Miserables, Erik Bedard could use someone to drag him

across the post-game food spread face first by way of his hair. They don't have to make a long-term commitment to him; just give him the rest of the season and see what happens; if nothing else, it would draw some interest to a decimated and disheartened team and wake up their fans. What do they have to lose?